Mutually exclusive and conditional probability
Lesson Plan 21/1/ 2024-2025
Key Concept: Logic
Statement of Inquiry:
Different forms of representation help to establish underlying relationships and trends to
support decision making.
Guiding question for the lesson: How are the probability of mutually exclusive and
conditional events calculated?
Summative Assessment: Learners to be assessed on identification and calculation of
mutually exclusive and independent events.
Lesson Outcomes:
i) Students should be able to calculate mutually exclusive and conditional
probabilities
ii) Learners should be able to able concept of mutually exclusive and conditional
probabilities in real life.
Time Lesson Structure
5 mins Review of previous lesson
i) How do we determine whether two events are independent?
ii) What is the addition and multiplication rule in probability? When are
the rules used?
Mutually exclusive events
20 mins What are mutually exclusive events?
Two events are mutually exclusive if they cannot both occur
For example: when rolling a dice the events "getting a prime number" and "getting a 6" are mutually exclusive
If A and B are mutually exclusive events then:
P(A ∩ B) = 0
If A and B are mutually exclusive events then
P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B)
Example
Activity one
a)
b)
Two events, S and T , are such that P(S) = 2P(T) .
Given that S and T are mutually exclusive and that P(S ∪ T) = 0.6 find P(S) and
P(T) .
25 mins Direct instruction/guided practice
Conditional Probability
What is conditional probability?
Conditional probability is where the probability of an event happening can vary depending
on the outcome of a prior event
The event A happening given that event B has happened is denoted A|B
Example
20 mins Independent practice:
Question 1
Question 2
b)
One of the people in the company is randomly selected, find the probability
that he is right-handed.
c)
Given that a person who is right-handed is selected at random, find the
probability that they wear glasses.
5 mins Exit/Reflection: How is probability used in really life?
