Photovoltaics Report

—
Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems, ISE
with the support of PSE Projects GmbH

Freiburg, 29 July 2024

www.ise.fraunhofer.de
CONTENT

 Quick Facts
 Topics:
 PV Market
 Solar Cells / Modules / System Efficiency
 Life cycle assessment (LCA) and sustainability aspects
 Price Development
 Abbreviations
 Further Studies and Analyses
 Acknowledgements

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Introduction
Preliminary Remarks

 The intention of this presentation is to provide up-to-date information. However, facts and figures change rapidly,
and the given information may soon be outdated again.

 This work has been carried out under the responsibility of Dr. Simon Philipps (Fraunhofer ISE) and Werner
Warmuth (PSE Projects GmbH).

 Price indications are always to be understood as nominal, unless this is stated explicitly. For example, prices in the
learning curves are inflation adjusted.

 The slides have been made as accurate as possible and we would be grateful to receive any comments or
suggestions for improvement.
Please send your feedback to both simon.philipps@ise.fraunhofer.de and warmuth@pse-projects.de

 Please quote the information presented in these slides as follows:

©Fraunhofer ISE: Photovoltaics Report, updated: 30 July 2024

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Quick Facts
Parameter Value Status Reference Date of data
Germany / EU27 / Worldwide
PV installation market [GW] 7.5 / 41.4 / 240 GW End of 2022 BNA / SPE / IEA 03/2023; 01/2023; 04/2023
15.1 / 55.9 / 407 GW End of 2023 BNA / SPE / IEA 06/2024; 12/2023; 04/2024

Cumulative installation [GW] 67.6 / 207 / 1,185 GW End of 2022 ISE / SPE / IEA 03/2023; 12/2023; 04/2023
82.7 / 263 / 1,581 GW End of 2023 ISE / SPE / IEA 06/2024; 12/2023; 04/2024

PV power generation [TWh] 54.3net / 209.1gross / 1,321.9gross 2022 ISE / EI / EI 06/2024; 06/2024; 06/2024
53.9net / 246.8gross / 1,641.6gross 2023 ISE / EI / EI 06/2024; 06/2024; 06/2024

PV electricity share 11.0%net / 7.4%gross / 4.5%gross 2022 ISE / EI / EI 06/2024; 06/2024; 06/2024
12.5%net / 9.0%gross / 5.5%gross 2023 ISE / EI / EI 06/2024; 06/2024; 06/2024

Worldwide
c-Si share of production 97% 2023 ITRPV 04/2024

Record solar cell efficiency: III-V MJ 47.6 / 27.3 / 23.4 / 24.4 / 21.0% 06/2024 Green et al. 06/2024

(conc.)/mono-Si/CIGS/multi-Si/CdTe
Germany
Price PV rooftop system (3 to 10 kWp) 1,450 to 2,000 €/kWp 2023 BSW 11/2023

LCOE PV power plant 3.1 to 5.7 ct€ / kWh 2021 ISE

4Lowest/Latest PV-Tender Price 4.33/5.17 ct€ / kWh 02/2018;

BNA 12/2023
(average, volume-weighted value)
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Executive Summary
PV Market: Global

 Photovoltaics is a fast-growing market: The Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of cumulative
PV installations was about 26% between year 2013 to 2023.
 In 2023 producers from Asia count for 94% of total PV module production. China (mainland) holds the lead with
a share of about 86%. Europe and USA/CAN each contributed 2%.
 Wafer size increased and by keeping the number of cells larger PV module sizes are realized allowing a power
range beyond 700 W per module.
 In 2023, Europe’s contribution to the total cumulative PV installations amounted to 20%. In contrast, installations
in China accounted for 43% (previous year 37%) and North America for 10%.
 Si-wafer based PV technology accounted for about 97% of the total production in 2023. Mono-crystalline
technology became the dominant technology in c-Si production while multi-crystalline technology is phasing out.
 Market shifts from subsidy driven to competitive pricing model (Power Purchase Agreements PPA).
 In addition to PV systems on buildings (Rooftop or Building-Integrated) and ground-mounted systems, more and
more systems are being installed on agricultural land (Agrivoltaics) and bodies of water (Floating PV).
Furthermore, vehicle-integrated PV enters the market.
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Executive Summary
PV Market: Focus Germany

 In year 2023, Germany accounted for about 5.2% (82.7 GWp) of the cumulative PV capacity installed worldwide
(1581 GWp) with about 3.7 million PV systems installed in Germany. In 2023 the newly installed capacity in Germany
was about 15 GWp according to BNA; in 2022 it was 7.5 GWp.
 In 2023, PV accounts for 12.5% of net electricity generation and all renewable energies together for around 60%.
 In 2023 about 42 Mio. t CO2 equivalent GHG emissions have been avoided due to 61 TWh PV electricity consumed in
Germany.
 PV system performance has strongly improved. Before year 2000 the typical Performance Ratio was about 70%, while
today it is in the range of 80% to 90%.
 Often residential and small commercial PV systems are installed with a battery storage and a charging station for electric
mobility. Due to relative high electricity tariffs in Germany, self consumption is the prevailing business model. Another
trend is the increased installation of balcony solar systems.
 With the increasing generation capacity from solar and wind, the integration of volatile electricity into the grids is
becoming ever more important. Grid expansion, load management, smart grids, bidirectional charging of vehicle batteries
etc. must be promoted to avoid temporary switching off of renewable power plants (curtailment).

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Executive Summary
Solar Cell / Module Efficiencies

 The record lab cell efficiency* is 27.3% for mono-crystalline and 24.4% for multi-crystalline silicon wafer-based
technology. The highest lab efficiency in thin film technology is 23.4% for CIGS and 21.0% for CdTe solar cells.
Record lab cell efficiency for Perovskite is 25.2%.
 In the last 10 years, the efficiency of commercial mono-crystalline wafer-based silicon modules increased from
about 16% to 22% and more. At the same time, the efficiency of CdTe module increased from 9% to nearly
20%.
 In the laboratory, the best performing modules are based on mono-crystalline silicon with 24.9% efficiency.
Record efficiencies demonstrate the potential for further efficiency increases at the production level.
 In the laboratory, high concentration multi-junction solar cells achieve an efficiency of up to 47.6% today. With
concentrator technology, module efficiencies of up to 38.9% have been reached.

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* Only official lab record efficiencies with minimum cell area of 1 cm2 are listed. Latest reference: Solar Cell Efficiency Tables (Version 64), Progress in
©Fraunhofer ISE
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Executive Summary
Energy Payback Time

 Material usage for silicon cells has been reduced significantly during the last 18 years from around
16 g/Wp (in 2004) to about 2.2 g/Wp in 2023 due to increased efficiencies, thinner wafers (150µm) using
diamond wire saws, and larger ingots.
 The Energy Payback Time of PV systems is dependent on the geographical location: PV systems manufactured in
Europe and installed in Northern Europe require approximately 1.1 years to pay back the energy input, while PV
systems installed in the South require 0.9 years to pay back the energy input, depending on the technology
installed and the grid efficiency.
 A PV system located in Sicily using wafer-based Silicon modules has an Energy Payback Time of about one year.
Assuming a 20-year lifetime, this type of system can produce twenty times the energy required to produce it.
 PV modules can be recycled to recover rare and valuable materials. Further research and development is needed
to make these recycling processes even more in-depth and cost-effective.

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Executive Summary
Price Development

 Due to the coronavirus crisis and the associated disruptions to supply and trade chains, market prices rose
noticeably in 2022 and at times some products were not available in sufficient quantities. In 2023 prices fell
again.
 In Germany prices for a typical 10 to 100 kWp PV rooftop-system were around 14,000 €/kWp in 1990. At the
end of 2023, such systems cost only 10% of the price in 1990. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of net
prices has been -6.8% over the past 33 years.
 The Experience Curve – also called Learning Curve - shows that in the last 43 years the module price decreased
by 24.4% with each doubling of the cumulated global module production. Cost reduction results from
economies of scale and technological improvements. Global average Selling price (ASP) was about 0.20 US$/Wp
in 2023.

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1. PV Market

 By region
 By technology

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PV Module Production by Region 1990-2023
Percentage of Total MWp Produced

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Data: from 2000 to 2009: Navigant; from 2010 to 2021 IHS Markit; from 2022 estimates based on IEA and
©Fraunhofer ISE
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PV Module Production by Region
Global Annual Production

Annual Production Today

—
Annual production has increased
13-fold over the past decade. In
2023, approximately 95% of
solar modules and their
components came from Asia,
primarily from China with a
module production share of
about 80%, which also controls
more than 95% of the market
for certain components such as
ingots and wafers.

Data from 2000 to 2009: Navigant; from 2010 to 2021 IHS Markit; from 2022 estimates basaed on IEA and other sources. Graph: PSE Projects GmbH 2024. Date of data 04/2024

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 EU PV Manufacturing Landscape – Status Quo
Overview of PV production along the value chain – July 2024

Nominal Production-
Capacities in the region
[GWp/a]: pcc SE
Stakksberg
Module 8.6 ELKEM EU27 + CH, NO, UK
Solar Cells 1.4 Value Chain Wacker
mg-Si Norway

Source: ©iStock.com / Kateryna Novokhatnia

Ingot & Wafer 0.0

Nameplate Prod. Capacity mg-Si / poly-Si

Poly-Si
Ingot / Wafer
Nameplate Production Capacity

Poly-Si ~29*,** Solar Cell

Module
Module – Ingot (MWp/a)

mg-Si ~58 SoliTek

MetSolar
Sonnenstromfabrik

(*1000 10³ kg/a)

Fab Size
Aleo
> 1 GWp MeyerBurger
ASWS Bruk-Bet
> 500 MWp Soluxtec Solarwelt Heckert
Wacker Agora Solar
> 100 MWp Voltec
Megasol Sonnenkraft KarpatSolar
3S
Tenka EXE
Ferroglobe BiSol Solvis
Peimar Domi Eko
Escelco
RECOM Sunerg
Exiom PiKCell

Silicon Valen
Ferroglobe

Module Solar Ingot&Wafe poly- mg-

cell r Si Si Status 07/24

13 * Currently 2,100 kg/MWp poly-Si required for Ingot production

** Most of the available poly-Si capacity is held in reserve for the semiconductor industry
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PV Production in Germany - Status Quo
PV module supplier – July 2024

Value-added stage
mg-Si
Company Location Capacity Website
Poly-Si
[MW] Ingot / Wafer
Solarzelle
ASWS Mettmann 800 https://www.asws-solar.de/
Module
Sonnenstromfabrik

Source: ©iStock.com / Kateryna Novokhatnia

Soluxtec Bitburg 550 https://www.soluxtec.de/
Factory size
Sonnenstromfabrik Wismar 525 https://www.sonnenstromfabrik.com/de/
> 1 GWp Oxford PV Aleo Solar
Solarwelt (Heckert) Langenwetzendorf 400 https://www.heckertsolar.com/standort-lwd/
> 500 MWp
NexWafe
Heckert Solar Chemnitz 400 https://www.heckertsolar.com > 100 MWp
ASWS MeyerBurger Avancis Wacker
> 50 MWp Sunmaxx
Aleo Solar Berlin 300 https://www.aleo-solar.de/ Antec

Soluxtec Solarwelt Heckert

Avancis Torgau 100 https://www.avancis.de/

AxSun Laupheim 50 https://www.axsun.de/

Sunmaxx Ottendorf-Okrilla 50 https://sunmaxx-pvt.com/de

AxSun Wacker

The production capacity for PV modules in Germany

amounted to about 3.2 GWp in July 2024.
Data and Graph: Jochen Rentsch, Fraunhofer ISE 2024; last update: 07/2024
Status 05/07/24
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Global Cumulative PV Installation
by Region

© Fraunhofer ISE

Note: The IRENA data shown here

differs from that of the IEA PVPS:
IRENA: 1,412 GWp
Data: IRENA 2024. Graph: PSE Projects GmbH 2024. Date of data: April-2024
IEA-PVPS: 1,581 GWp

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Global Cumulative PV Installation
by on-grid & off-grid installation type

Approximately 99.6% of today’s

installed PV capacity is connected
to the grid.

The proportion of off-grid systems

compared to the total cumulative
systems has roughly halved over
time from just under 1 % in 2010
to 0.43 % in 2023.

Data: IRENA 2024. Graph: PSE Projects GmbH 2024. Date of data: 04/2024

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Global Cumulative PV Installation by Region
Status 2023

The total cumulative installations amounted to

about 1,581 GWp according to IEA-PVPS at the
end of year 2023; IRENA reports 1,412 GWp.

All percentages are related to global installed PV

capacity, including off-grid systems.

© Fraunhofer ISE

Data: IEA-PVPS Snapshot of Global Market; IRENA 2024. Graph: PSE Projects GmbH 2024; Date of data: 04/2024

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Annually Installed PV System Capacity in Germany
Percentage of Annual Capacity by System Size
100%
Share of capacity additions

80%

The annual distribution of PV

60%
system size classes strongly
40%
depends on:
 Regulations
20%  Market incentives (like EEG)
 Tender procedures
0%  Bankability (trust of investors)

Years
Ground-mounted (x > 1000 kWp) Ground-mounted (750 < x ≤ 1000 kWp)
Ground-mounted (x ≤ 750 kWp) Building (x > 1000 kWp) The “Building” category includes roofs,
Building (750 < x ≤ 1000 kWp) Building (500 ≤ x ≤ 750 kWp) facades and plug-in systems
Building (100 ≤ x < 500 kWp) Building (30 ≤ x < 100 kWp) The “Ground-mounted” category
Building (20 ≤ x < 30 kWp) Building (10 < x < 20 kWp) includes bodies of water, parking lots and
Building (x ≤ 10 kWp) other structures

18 Source until year 2020: Fraunhofer ISE, own calculations based on EEG-master and -flow data (netztransparenz.de, Sept. 2021)
©Fraunhofer ISE Source since 2021: Fraunhofer ISE, own calculations based on MaStR (Date: 18.03.2024) and data validation algorithm
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Share of Number of PV Systems Installed
Percentage of Cumulative Installations by System Size in Germany in 2023

Total number of all Number of PV-Systems

grid-connected PV-Systems larger than 500 kWp End of 2023 about
702.108
18,89% 262.780 180.961 3.7 million grid-
7,07% 4,87% 786
0,02% connected PV-Systems
45.333
1,22%
5.007
were installed in
0,13% Germany.
56.325
1,52% 5.735
0,15%

990
2.456.713 0,03%
840
66,08% 0,02%

Building (x ≤ 10 kWp) Building (10 < x < 20 kWp)

Building (20 ≤ x < 30 kWp) Building (30 ≤ x < 100 kWp) In 2023, around 500,000 plug-in
Building (100 ≤ x < 500 kWp) Building (500 ≤ x ≤ 750 kWp)
systems (up to 600 W feed-in
Building (750 < x ≤ 1000 kWp) Building (x > 1000 kWp)
Ground-mounted (x ≤ 750 kWp) Ground-mounted (750 < x ≤ 1000 kWp) power), so-called balcony solar
Ground-mounted (x > 1000 kWp) © Fraunhofer ISE
systems, were installed in
Germany [1].

19 Source: Fraunhofer ISE, own calculations based on MaStR (Date: 18.03.2024) and data validation algorithm
©Fraunhofer ISE [1] Includes reported plug-in systems and systems assigned to this category according to MaStR (Date: 18.03.2024) and additional estimates
public by Fraunhofer ISE
 Share of Capacity of PV-Systems Installed
Percentage of Cumulative Installations by System Size in Germany in 2023

PV Capacity in MWp and percentage PV Capacity in MWp and percentage

of all grid-connected PV-Systems of Systems larger than 500 kWp
9.612
12%
9.934 Building (x ≤ 10 kWp)
12% 21.993
27% Building (10 < x < 20 kWp)

Building (20 ≤ x < 30 kWp)

6.818
8% Building (30 ≤ x < 100 kWp)
713
1% Building (100 ≤ x < 500 kWp)
3.260
Building (500 ≤ x ≤ 750 kWp)
9.460 4%
11% Building (750 < x ≤ 1000 kWp)
1.443
2% 891 3.791
1% 5%
14.453 Mostly within the building PV
17%
End of 2023 a total cumulated PV system class (x ≤ 10 kWp), balcony
© Fraunhofer ISE solar systems (up to 600 W feed-in
capacity of about 82.4 GWp was power) accounted for 380 MWp in
installed in Germany. 2023 in Germany [1].
20 Source: Fraunhofer ISE, own calculations based on MaStR (Date: 18.03.2024) and data validation algorithm
©Fraunhofer ISE [1] Includes reported plug-in systems and systems assigned to this category according to MaStR (Date: 18.03.2024)
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and additional estimates by Fraunhofer ISE
Share of PV-Installations with Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS)
Residential Rooftop Systems in Germany

Until the end of 2023: By year of

By the end of 2023 over
commissioning: 40% (1.2 million units) of
2%
100% all residential PV-systems
90% are combined with a
80%
1.2 Million 40%
70% BESS.
residential rooftop 60%

Share
PV systems are 50% The share of residential
40%
combined with a 30% rooftop PV-systems with
battery storage 20% a BESS increased from
58% system 10% below 20% for
0%
© Fraunhofer ISE 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 commissioning in 2014 to
Year of commissioning almost 80% in 2023.
Residential rooftop PV systems
PV systems with battery storage PV system without battery storage Unknown are defined as all systems on
buildings with a maximum
capacity of 30 kWp according
to MaStR-Data.
21 Source: Marktstammdatenregister - MaStR (Date: 01.04.2024)
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Share of PV-Installations with Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS)
Commercial and Utility-Scale Systems in Germany

Commercial rooftop Utility-scale ground-mounted

systems
100% 100% systems
80% 80%
60% 60%
Share

Share
40% 40%
20% 20%
0% 0%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Year of commissioning Year of commissioning

PV systems with battery storage PV system without battery storage PV systems with battery storage PV system without battery storage
Unknown Unknown

The share of PV installations with BESS increased There is a significant increase in PV with
from 5% for commissioning in 2014 to 20% in BESS shares in 2022 and 2023 to around 7%
2023 in the commercial rooftop sector. in the utility-scale PV power plant sector.
Commercial rooftop PV systems are defined as all systems on Utility-scale ground-mounted PV systems are defined as all ground-
buildings with a capacity greater than 30 kWp according to mounted systems with a capacity greater than 1 MWp according to
MaStR-Data. MaStR-Data.
22 Source: Marktstammdatenregister - MaStR (Date: 01.04.2024)
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© Fraunhofer ISE
Electrical Capacity of Renewable Energy Sources (RES)
Germany

165.6 GW of total 261.6 GW net installed electricity generation capacity in Germany were from renewable
energy sources (RES) in Germany in year 2023. This results in a RE share of 63.3% of total capacity.
Data:: Energy Charts by Prof. Dr. Bruno Burger. Date of data: 03/2024

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PV Energy Generated and Resulting GHG Avoided Emissions
Germany

In 2023 Greenhouse Gas emissions of about 42 Mio. t CO₂-equivalent were avoided due to
61 TWh PV electricity consumed in Germany.
Data: BMU, BDEW, BMWi, Federal Environmental Agency (UBA) 02/2024. Graph: PSE Projects GmbH 2024

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Annual PV Production by Technology
Worldwide (in GWp)

About 500* GWp PV module production in 2023

2020

2015 Thin film

Mono-Si
2010
Multi-Si
*2023 production numbers reported by different
analysts vary to some extent. About 410 GW have © Fraunhofer ISE

been installed in 2023 globally. The TOP10 module

2005
producer together shipped about 375 GW PV panels
in 2023. Total PV module shipments are estimated to
be between 460 and 502 GW in 2023. 2000
Data: from 2000 to 2009: Navigant; from 2010 to 2021 IHS Markit; from 2022 estimates based on IEA and other sources. Graph: PSE Projects GmbH 2024 . Date of data: 04/2024

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Technology Overview
Different crystalline-Silicon Cell Technology Market Shares

Source: based on ITRPV 2013-2024

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PV Production by Technology
Percentage of Global Annual Production

Production 2023* (GWp)

Thin film 13
Multi-Si 4
Mono-Si 485
Total 502 (ITRPV)

*estimated

Data: from 2000 to 2009: Navigant; from 2010 to 2021 IHS Markit; from 2022 estimates based on IEA and other sources. Graph: PSE Projects GmbH 2024 . Date of data: 04/2024

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Market Share of Thin-Film Technologies
Percentage of Total Global PV Production

Thin-Film technology
contributed in year 2023
with about 2.5% to the
total PV-market.

Data: from 2000 to 2009: Navigant; from 2010 to 2021 IHS Markit; from 2022 estimates based on IEA and other sources. Graph: PSE Projects GmbH 2024 . Date of data: 04/2024

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Thin-Film Technologies
Annual Global PV Module Production

Data: from 2000 to 2009: Navigant; from 2010 to 2021 IHS Markit; from 2022 estimates based on IEA and other sources. Graph: PSE Projects GmbH 2024 . Date of data: 04/2024

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2. Solar Cells / Modules / System Efficiency

 Development in the Laboratories

 Development in the PV Industry
 Performance Ratio (PR)

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Development of Laboratory Solar Cell Efficiencies

Data: Solar Cell Efficiency Tables (Versions 1 to 64), Progress in Photovoltaics: Research and Applications, 1993-2024. Graph: Fraunhofer ISE 2024. Date of data: 06/2024

31 Only official lab record efficiencies published in the Solar Cell Efficiency Tables, Progress in Photovoltaics: Research and Applications are included in
©Fraunhofer ISE
the graph.
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Efficiency Comparison of Technologies
Best Lab Cells vs. Best Lab Modules

Note: In mass production, the cell-to-

module ratio (CTM) improved in past
years by reducing losses and using
possible gains when integrating solar
cells in modules.

Fraunhofer ISE provides SmartCalc.CTM

software suite for precise Cell-to-
Module (CTM) power loss analysis. It
considers geometrical losses, optical
losses and gains as well as electrical
losses.

www.cell-to-module.com
Data: Green et al.: Solar Cell Efficiency Tables (Version 64), Progress in PV: Research and Applications 2024. Graph: PSE Projects GmbH 2024. Date of data: 06/2024

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Current Efficiencies and Power of Commercial PV Modules
Sorted by technology

 Total weighted average efficiency of crystalline

Silicon(c-Si) wafer-based modules is 21.6% in
Q4-2023 (was 20.9% in Q4-2022); weighting factor
is total shipments in year 2023. Lowest module
efficiency in this group is 17.4% (was 17.2% one
year before) and highest value is 23.3% (was 23.2%
in 2022).
 Top 10 manufacturers represent about 75% of total
shipment volume and origin mainly in Asia.
 Predominant c-Si technology is mono-PERC with
half-cut cells and Multi-Busbar.
Note: The selection is based on modules from the top 10 manufacturers in 2023 (except CIGS),
with module data sheets available worldwide at the end of January 2024. For CIGS technology,
only a very limited amount of supplier data was available, and the products indicated are
manufactured for niche markets such as building integrated PV (BIPV) or flexible module
Data Source: company product data sheets; Graph: PSE Projects GmbH 2024; Date of data: 02/2024 applications, so comparability with the other two technologies is limited.

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Performance Ratio Development for PV Systems
Germany

 In the 1990’s
 Typical PR ~70 %
 Widely ranging PR values

 Today
 Typical PR ~83 %
 Less variance in PR
as compared to 1990’s

Source: Fraunhofer ISE “1000 Dächer Jahresbericht“ 1994 and 1997; 2011 system evaluation, CPIA 2021

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3. Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and Sustainability Aspects

 Silicon usage, wafer thickness and kerf loss for c-Si

 EPBT: Development and comparison

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c-Si Solar Cell Development
Wafer Thickness [µm] & Silicon Usage [g/Wp]

Data: until 2012: EU PV Technology Platform Strategic Research Agenda, from 2012: ITRPV; from 2016 ISE without; 2017 ongoing with recycling of Si. Graph: PSE Projects GmbH 2024; date of data: 04/2024

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Historic Trend in Energy Payback Time
Harmonized study data for mono-crystalline silicon rooftop PV systems

Learning Rate:
Each time the cumulative production
doubled, the EPBT went down by 12.8 %
for the last 24 years.

Harmonization methodology
based on Koppelaar (2016) harmonized results and harmonization parameters

1) Performance Ratio
based on average annual PV yield during lifetime
PV system lifetime 25
Degradation 0.70%
PR (initial) 80%
PR (incl. average degradation during lifetime) 73.6%
2) Grid efficiency
for converting PV yield in primary energy equivalents
grid efficiency 35%

EPBT of Leccisi (2016), Louwen (2014) and Friedrich (2020) were harmonized with
1) PR (incl. average degradation) and 2) grid efficiency to results of Koppelaar (2016)*

Data: Fraunhofer ISE. Graph: PSE Projects GmbH 2021 Irradiation: 1700 kWh/m²/a at an optimized tilt angle; Years: Estimated average year of original data

37 * Koppelaar (2016) - Solar-PV energy payback and net energy: Meta-assessment of study quality, reproducibility, and results harmonization, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews
Leccidi et al. (2016) - The Energy and Environmental Performance of Ground-Mounted Photovoltaic Systems—A Timely Update, Energies
©Fraunhofer ISE Louwen et al. (2014) - Life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions and energy payback time of current and prospective silicon heterojunction solar cell designs, Progress in Photovoltaics
public Friedrich et al. (2020) - Global Warming Potential and Energy Payback Time Analysis of Photovoltaic Electricity by Passivated Emitter and Rear Cell (PERC) Solar Modules, submitted JPV
Energy Pay-Back Time of Silicon PV Rooftop Systems
Geographical Comparison

 Rooftop PV system using Irradiation (GTI, kWh/m²/a) EPBT

<600
mono-crystalline silicon cells*
800
produced in China
1000

 EPBT is dependent on 1200

irradiation, but also on other 1400

1.3 years

factors like grid efficiency**. 1600

1800
 Better grid efficiency in
2000
Europe may decrease the
>2200
EPBT by typically 9.5 %
compared to PV modules
1.0 year
produced in China.
Data source: Fraunhofer ISE. Image: JRC European Commission. Graph: PSE Projects GmbH 2020 (Modified scale with updated data from Fraunhofer ISE)

38 *Cz PERC cells module with 19.9% efficiency

©Fraunhofer ISE **relation between primary energy to produced electricity in the grid used for manufacturing of the PV system
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World Map EPBT of Silicon PV Rooftop Systems
Comparison of EPBT China

EPBT
Influencing Factors and Interpretation
 EPBT: the lower, the better
 Irradiation: the higher, the better
 Grid efficiency: the higher, the better in
countries where upstream production is
located; (better energy mix to generate
electrical power; less losses in the electrical
transmission network). At downstream
(where PV is installed) a low grid efficiency
reduces the EPBT.

Data source: Fraunhofer ISE. EPBT = Energy Pay Back Time in years: Calculated for PV-system with
Cz PERC 60 cells modules with 19.9 % efficiency produced in China
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Energy Pay-Back Time of Silicon PV Rooftop Systems –
Comparison of EPBT China / EU, local Irradiation and Grid Efficiency 2021

EPBT for PV systems produced in Europe is shorter than for those produced in China because of better grid efficiency in Europe.
Data source: Fraunhofer ISE. Calculations for year 2021 made at 22-July 2022

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PV-Module
Materials and Components

Glass Al Frame Interconnector

(67.5%) AlMg3 (12.7%) Cu (1.3%) Please note: Highly transparent
glass can also be produced
Sb Sn (0.09%) / Pb (0.09%) without antimony (Sb), and
some European suppliers are
doing so. It is technically
feasible to recycle and reuse
almost 100% of the materials
Solar cells used in PV modules. The
Si (2.7%) European WEEE Directive
Ethylene-vinyl acetate Ag/PbO (0.04%) stipulates that at least 80% of
(6.7%) Ag/Al/PbO (0.01%) the module mass of old
Al (0.07%) modules must be processed and
recycled for reuse. For economic
11.6 kg/m² reasons, however, only the
3.3 kWh/m2 (Module) glass, frame and junction box (J-
Box) are recycled today.
80.9 kWh/m2 (Solar cells) Color legend:
Available/harmless materials
J-Box Rare/valuable materials
GRP, Polyamide (1.6%) Hazardous substances
Silicones (1.2%) Recycling takes place
Backsheet Diodes/Cables (0.02%)
PVF/Glue/PET/Glue/PVF (3.7%) Downcycling takes
F place
Source: Fraunhofer ISE © 2024

41 Mass fraction of substance in relation to total module mass of 11.6 kg/m² (100%) given in brackets; Date of data: 2021
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4. Price Development

 Electricity costs
 Market incentives in Germany
 Costs for PV systems
 Price Learning Curve

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Electricity Prices, PV Feed-In Tariffs (FIT) and Bidding Scheme in Germany
With Photovoltaic Rooftop Systems Partial Feed-In Tariff

Rooftop Systems Partial Feed-In Tariff

Data: BNA; energy-charts.info; Design: B. Burger - Fraunhofer ISE. Graph: PSE Projects GmbH 2024; Date of data: 04/2024

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PV Market Development and Incentive Schemes in Germany

Market Incentive Start End

1‘000 Roofs Program 1990 1995
Cost-covering remuneration 1993 1999
100‘000 Roofs-Program 1999 2003
EEG 2000 ongoing
PV Tendering scheme 2015 ongoing

The EEG 2023 law relies on a massive expansion of

renewable energies with total installed PV capacity
targets of 215 GW in year 2030 and 400 GW in
2040. In 2023, new PV systems totaling around 15
GW capacity have been connected to the grid. 9
GW capacity was announced for 2024. From 2026
on, the expansion target is 22 GW of new
installations on an annual basis.
Data: BNA. Graph: B. Burger, Fraunhofer ISE Energy-Charts. Date of Data: 03/2024

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PV Tender Scheme in Germany for Free-Standing Systems
Average, quantity weighted award value

 The PV tender scheme for large

ground-mounted systems started in
April 2015. The total capacity of
this scheme amounted to 14.1 GW
in Dec. 2023 with 5.2 ct€ / kWh as
latest average quantity weighted
award price.

 PV-rooftop and special tenders are

not displayed in the graph.

Data: BNA. Graph: PSE Projects GmbH 2024 – Date of data: Feb-2024

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PV-Tender in Germany for Large Rooftop-Systems
Average, quantity weighted award value

 PV-Tender scheme for large rooftop

systems (>750 kW) started in June 2021
and total capacity of this scheme
accumulates to 1.66 GW by Feb-2024
with 8.9 ct€ / kWh as latest average
quantity weighted award price.

 Lowest PV-Tender Round was in June

2021 with 6.88 ct€ / kWh as average
quantity weighted award price.

Data: BNA. Graph: PSE Projects GmbH 2024 – Date of data: 03/2024

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Global Weighted Average Levelised Costs of Electricity for Large PV Systems
(with 5th percentile and 95th percentile)

 The global weighted average LCoE was in year 2022 for large
PV systems 0.047 €/kWh (= 47 €/MWh).

 The 5th percentile is a value associated with the location

within the data where 5% of data is below that value. In year
2022 the 5th percentile was
0.029 €/kWh (= 29 €/MWh).

 The 95th percentile is the value where 5% of the data has a

larger value. In year 2022 the 95th percentile was 0.114
€/kWh (= 114 €/MWh).

 The LCoE decreased by about 15% on year-to-year basis in the

Data: IRENA (2023), Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2022, International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu
last 12 years.
Dhabi. Currency converted from USD to EUR. Date of data: Sep-2023

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Global Weighted Average Total Installed Costs For Large PV Systems
(with 5th percentile and 95th percentile)

 The global weighted average total cost for large PV systems was
833 €/kWp in year 2022.

 The 5th percentile is a value associated with the location within

the data where 5% of data is below that value. In year 2022
the 5th percentile was 541 €/kWp.

 The 95th percentile is the value where 5% of the data has a

larger value. In year 2022 the 95th percentile was 1786 €/kWp.

 Total installed cost for large PV systems decreased by about

12% on year-to-year basis in the last 12 years.

Data: IRENA (2023), Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2022, International Renewable Energy Agency,
Abu Dhabi. Currency converted from USD to EUR. Date of data: Sep-2023

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Price Development for PV Rooftop Systems in Germany
(10kWp - 100kWp)

Balance of System (BOS) encompasses all

components of a PV system excluding the PV
modules. These are the inverter, mounting
system, switches, wiring and installation
work, for example.

BOS incl. Inverter

Modules
Percentage of
the Total Cost

Data: BSW-Solar. Graph: PSE Projects GmbH 2024. Date of data: 11/2023

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Breakdown of Utility-scale PV Total Installed Costs
By Country in 2022

Breakdown of cost
components
(average of available country data):

Data: IRENA (2023), Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2022, International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi. Currency converted from USD to EUR. Date of data: Sep-2023

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Breakdown of Total Installation Costs of Utility-Scale PV
Germany 2019 to 2022

Supply bottlenecks due to the

coronavirus crisis led to price
turbulence in 2022.

Data: IRENA (2023), Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2022, International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi. Currency converted from USD to EUR. Date of data: Sep-2023

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Price Learning Curve
Includes all Commercially Available PV Technologies

Learning Rate:
Each time the cumulative PV
module production doubled, the
module price dropped about
24.4% over the past 43 years.

Data: from 1980 to 2010 estimation from different sources: Strategies Unlimited, Navigant Consulting, EUPD, pvXchange; from 2011: IHS Markit; from 2022: ISE; Graph: PSE Projects GmbH 2024

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Price Learning Curve
Includes all Commercially Available PV Technologies

Learning Rate:
Each time the cumulative PV
module production doubled, the
module price dropped about
24.4% over the past 43 years.

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Further Reading
Selected studies and analyses

fraunhofer-ISE Energy Charts

Study: Levelized Cost of Electricity - Renewable Energy Technologies

Recent facts about photovoltaics in Germany

Power Generation from Renewable Energy in Germany

What will the Energy Transformation Cost? Pathways for Transforming the German Energy System by 2050

Sustainable PV Manufacturing in Europe – An Initiative for a 10 GW Green Fab

Meta Study: Future Crosssectoral Decarbonization Target Systems in Comparison to Current Status of Technologies

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Abbreviations

Abbreviation Explanation Abbreviation Explanation

AC Alternating Current HCPV High Concentrator Photovoltaic
Al-BSF Aluminum Back Surface Field HJT (also HIT) Heterojunction with Intrinsic Thin-Layer
BESS Battery Energy Storage Systems IBC Interdigitated Back Contact (solar cells)
BIPV Building Integrated PV LCOE Levelized Cost of Energy
BOS Balance of System LCPV Low Concentrator Photovoltaic
CdTe Cadmium-Telluride MJ Multi Junction
CI(G)S Copper Indium (Gallium)Diselenide MPP Maximum Power Point
CPV Concentrating Photovoltaic n-type Negatively doped wafer (with phosphorous)
c-SI Crystalline Silicon PERX Passivated emitter and rear cell
CTM Cell-to-Module PR Performance Ratio
Cz Czochralski Method p-type Positively doped wafer (with boron or gallium)
DC Direct current PV Photovoltaic
Renewable Energy Source Act (Erneuerbare-Energien-Gesetz,
EEG RE Renewable Energies
EEG)
EI The Energy Institute ROI Return on Investment
EPBT Energy Payback Time SI Silicon
EROI Energy Return of Invest SIC Silicon carbide
FZ Floating Zone TOPCon Tunnel Oxide Passivated Contact
GaAs Gallium Arsenide VAT Value Added Tax
GaN Gallium nitride
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Acknowledgements

This work has been carried out with contributions from: The information provided in this Photovoltaics Report is
very concise by its nature . Its principal purpose is to
Name Institution provide a rough overview about the current solar PV
Andreas Bett ISE market, the technologies and the environmental
Bruno Burger ISE impact.
Christoph Kost ISE
Sebastian Nold ISE
However, there are many more aspects. These and
Dominik Peper ISE
Simon Philipps ISE
further details can be provided by Fraunhofer ISE upon
Ralf Preu ISE request. Please contact us if you are interested in
Christian Reichel ISE receiving a tailor-made offer.
Jochen Rentsch ISE
Gerhard Stryi-Hipp ISE simon.philipps@ise.fraunhofer.de
Tobias Reuter ISE
warmuth@pse-projects.de
Harry Wirth ISE
Werner Warmuth PSE Projects GmbH

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Thank You
for Your Interest
—
Contact
simon.philipps@ise.fraunhofer.de
warmuth@pse-projects.de