42.

PROFILE ON THE PRODUCTION OF

ESSENTIAL OIL
 42-ii

TABLE OF CONTENTS

PAGE

I. SUMMARY 42-2

II. PRODUCT DESCRIPTION & APPLICATION 42-3

III. MARKET STUDY AND PLANT CAPACITY 42-4

A. MARKET STUDY 42-4
B. PLANT CAPACITY & PRODUCTION PROGRAM 42-7

IV. MATERIALS AND INPUTS 42-8

A. RAW & AUXILIARY MATERIALS 42-8
B. UTILITIES 42-9

V. TECHNOLOGY & ENGINEERING 42-9

A. TECHNOLOGY 42-9
B. ENGINEERING 42-12

VI. HUMAN RESOURCE & TRAINING REQUIREMENT 42-16

A. HUMAN RESOURCE REQUIREMENT 42-16
B. TRAINING REQUIREMENT 42-17

VII. FINANCIAL ANLYSIS 42-17

A. TOTAL INITIAL INVESTMENT COST 42-18
B. PRODUCTION COST 42-19
C. FINANCIAL EVALUATION 42-20
D. ECONOMIC & SOCIAL BENEFITS 42-21
 42-iii

I. SUMMARY

This profile envisages the establishment of a plant for the production of essential oil with a
capacity of 15,000 kg per annum. Essential oil is used as odorants, flavorants, and pharmaceutical
ingredients.

The demand for Essential oil is entirely met through import. The present (2012) demand for
essential oil is estimated at 1,820 tons. The demand for essential oil is projected to reach 3,660
tons and 7,363 tons by the year 2017 and 2022, respectively.

The principal raw material required by the envisaged plant is rose petal which is locally
available.

The total investment cost of the project including working capital is estimated at Birr 43.14
million. From the total investment cost the highest share (Birr 31.39 million or 72.76%) is
accounted by initial working capital followed by fixed investment cost (Birr 8.40 million or
19.48 %) and pre operation cost (Birr 3.34 million or 7.75 %). From the total investment cost
Birr 4.30 million or 9.99% is required in foreign currency.

The project is financially viable with an internal rate of return (IRR) of 25.04% and a net present
value (NPV) of Birr 42.42 million, discounted at 10%.

The project can create employment for 18 persons. The project will generate Birr 21.40 million
in terms of tax revenue. The establishment of such factory will have a foreign exchange saving
effect to the country by substituting the current imports as well as by exporting to the world
market. The project will also create backward linkage with floriculture sector and forward
linkage with the pharmaceuticals; food processing and cosmetics sub sectors and also generate
income for the Government in terms of payroll tax.
 42-iv

II. PRODUCT DESCRIPTION AND APPLICATION

Essential oil is an aromatic volatile substance (named after the French 'essence', not the English
'essential') extracted by distillation or expression from blossoms, seeds, fruits, fruit peels, leaves,
stems, barks, wood, roots, and plant secretions. The resulting oil should have nothing added either
during or after this process.

Essential oils are found in hundreds of products but are generally used as odorants, flavorants, and
pharmaceutical ingredients. As odorants, they are used in perfumes and other cosmetics, soaps,
detergents, and other products ranging from animal feed to insecticides. As flavorants, they are
present in a wide variety of foods, including soft drinks, baked products, ice creams, candy,
confectionary, meat, and even pickle. As pharmaceutical ingredients, essential oils are used in dental
products such as toothpaste, aromatherapy and phytotherapy products, and a large number of
medicines.

Among the myriads of essential oils, rose oil is considered in this profile since it has wide
application and the resource i.e. rose can be produced in the outskirt of the Metropolis. Rose oil,
meaning either rose otto (attar of rose, attar of roses) or rose absolute, is the essential oil
extracted from the petals of various types of rose. Even with their high price and the advent of
organic synthesis, rose oils are still perhaps the most widely used essential oil in perfumery.

Rose oil is used in perfumes to lend beauty and depth. A drop or two in a massage, facial or bath
oil is luxurious and soothing. The oil is used in skin creams, powders and lotions. Aromatherapy
benefits: romantic, supportive, gently uplifting

Rose oil soothes and harmonizes the mind and helps with depression, anger, grief, fear, nervous
tension and stress and at the same time addresses sexuality, self-nurturing, self esteem and
dealing with emotional problems. It is most helpful for poor circulation and heart problems,
which would include heart palpitations, arrhythmia as well as high blood pressure and is also
 42-v

used to boost the liver and gall bladder. For the respiratory system rose oil assists in cases of
asthma, coughs and hay fever, and in the digestive system for liver congestion and nausea.

Rose otto oil has a clearing, cleansing, regulating and purifying effect on the female sex organs
and can be used for regulating and balancing hormones, irregular menstruation, functional
infertility, leucorrhoea, menorrhagia, uterine bleeding and other uterine disorders, while having a
general toning effect on the uterus.

On the skin, it is most effective for moisturizing and hydrating the skin, while having a general
stimulant and antiseptic action, which is good for all skin types, but especially so for dry, mature
and irritated skin. It is used to repair broken capillaries, inflammation as well as skin redness and
is useful in eczema and herpes. Rose water can be used for conjunctivitis.

Rose oil gives a feeling of well-being and happiness, it helps a nervous mind, can be helpful for
the respiratory tract, for digestive problems, for menstrual problems and in skin care.

III. MARKET STUDY AND PLANT CAPACITY

A. MARKET STUDY

1. Past Supply and Present Demand

Essential oils are widely used in the cosmetics, pharmaceuticals confectionery, and beverage
industries. The country’s demand for essential oils is met through import. The Ethiopian
Revenues and Customs Authority data on the import of the product classifies based on their plant
source as well as their application. The list of classification based on the plant source and
application is as given below.

- Essential oils of orange,

- Essential oils of lemon,

- Essential oils of bergamot ,

- Essential oils of citrus fruit,

 42-vi

- Essential oils of jasmine,

- Essential oils of rose,

- Essential oils of pepper mint,

- Essential oils of lavender or lavandin,

- Essential oils of mints,

- Concentrates of essential oils of a kind used in medicament,

- Concentrates of essential oils in fats,

- Essential oils of a kind used in non alcoholic drinks or in preparation of flavor food,

- Essential oils of a kind used in alcoholic drinks industries,

- Essential oils of a kind used in sandal manufacture,

- Essential oils of a kind used in mosquito repellant jelly manufacture, and

- Other mixtures of odoriferous substances.

A summary on the imported volume and value of the different types of essential oils is given in
Table 3.1.
TABLE 3.1
IMPORT OF ESSENTIAL OILS

Year Qty (Tons) Value ( `000 Birr)

2000 375.8 37,280
2001 534.3 45,337
2002 577.6 54,475
2003 632.4 66,853
2004 728.6 83,047
2005 929.4 109,789
2006 1,106.8 128,849
2007 1,026.4 144,976
2008 1,420.5 226,651
2009 1,428.6 326,291
2010 1,530.6 485,658
 42-vii

2011 1,596.5 510,146

Source: - Ethiopian Revenues and Customs Authority.

Table 3.1 reveals that the quantity imported in the past 12 years has been consistently rising. The
imported quantity which was 375.8 tons in the year 2000 has reached to 1,596.5 tons by the year
2011. The total increment in the past twelve years is more than fourfold, which is equal to an
annual average growth rate of 14%. To estimate the present demand the historical growth rate
of 14% has been applied by taking the imported quantity of 2011. Accordingly, present demand
is estimated at 1,820 tons.

2. Demand Projection

The demand for the various types of essential oils will increase mainly with the expansion and
establishment of the food, soft drinks, alcoholic drinks, pharmaceuticals and cosmetics industry
and various chemical industries. Due to the favorable climate created for foreign and local
investors a number of food, beverage, pharmaceutical, chemical and cosmetics manufacturing
projects are on pipe line for establishment. Considering the past demand growth of the product
and the conducive environment created for investment an annual growth rate of 15% , which is
almost equal to the historical trend, is applied to forecast the future demand (see Table 3.2).
Table 3.2
FORECASTED DEMAND FOR ESSENTIAL OILS (TONS)
Year Forecasted Demand
2013 2,093
2014 2,407
2015 2,768
2016 3,183
2017 3,660
2018 4,210
2019 4,841
2020 5,567
2021 6,402
2022 7,363
2023 8,467
42-viii
 42-ix

3. Pricing and Distribution

The prices of essential oils vary considerably according to the type of plant source, contents and
concentration of the product. Assuming the envisaged plant to process essential of rose, which is
available in the vicinity of Addis Ababa and based on the current international price of the
product the factory gate price is set at Birr 22,500 per kilo gram

The product can be sold directly to the user industries mainly food, cosmetic and soft drinks
plants. For small quantity purchasers that may be found at dispersed places agents can be
appointed to handle the sales activity.

B. PLANT CAPACITY AND PRODUCTION PROGRAM

1. Plant Capacity

Before defining viable economic size of the proposed project, certain important aspects have to
be decided before hand. First of all we have to decide which distillation process should be used
and which botanical herb(s) should be cultivated for essential oil extraction and over what area.
Steam distillation is the recommended process and rose is the selected botanical herb for
extraction since it is available in the outskirt of the metropolis.

The annual production capacity of the envisaged plant is 15,000 kg of rose oil in three shifts
operation based on 300 working days.

2. Production program

Considering the gradual development of processing skill and marketing of the product, the rate
of capacity utilization during the 1 st and 2nd year of production will be 75% and 85%,
respectively. Full capacity will be attained in the third year and then after. The production
program is indicated in Table 3.3.
 42-x

Table 3.3
PRODUCTION PROGRAM

Sr.No Description Production Year

.
1 2 3-10
1 Rose oil (tons) 11.25 12.75 15
2 Capacity utilization rate (%) 75 85 100

IV. RAW MATERIAL AND INPUTS

A. RAW AND AUXILIARY MATERIALS

Rose oil petals are collected from the floriculture farm found in the outskirt of Addis Ababa.
The basic raw material is rose petal. From 1,000kg of rose petal, 1kg rose oil is extracted. The
auxiliary materials required by the envisaged project are plastic drums of 30 kg capacity. The
total annual cost of material and input is estimated at Birr 60.075 million. Table 4.1 indicates the
detail of annual raw material requirements and its cost at full capacity production.

Table 4.1
RAW AND AUXILIARY MATERIAL REQUIREMENT AND COST
Sr.No Raw Material UOM Qty. Cost (‘000
. Birr)
1 Rose petal Tons 15,000 60,000
2 Plastic drums (30 kg capacity) Pcs 500 75
Total 60,075
 42-xi

B. UTILITIES

Electricity, furnace oil and water are essential utilities required by the project. Table 4.2
indicates the annual utilities cost and consumption of the proposed steam distillation unit. The
total annual utility cost is estimated to be Birr 260,554.

Table 4.2
ANNUAL UTILITIES REQUIREMENT & COST

Sr.No. Description UOM Qty. Cost (‘000

Birr)
1 Electricity kWh
5,000 2,890
2 Furnace oil Lt
15,300 227,664
3
3 Water M
3,000 30,000
Total 260,554

V. TECHNOLOGY AND ENGINEERING

A. TECHNOLOGY

1. Process Description

Most commonly, the essence is extracted from the plant using a technique called 'distillation'.
Since plants contain such a small amount of this precious oil, several hundred kilograms of plant
material may be needed to produce a single ounce. There are four methods of essential oil
extraction i.e. steam distillation, cold pressing or compression, solvent extraction, and carbon
dioxide extraction.
 42-xii

 Steam Distillation

Steam distillation is the most common method of extracting essential oils. Many old-time
distillers favor this method for most oils, and say that none of the newer methods produces better
quality oils. Steam distillation is done in a 'still'. Fresh or sometimes dried, botanical material is
placed in the plant chamber of the still and pressurized steam is generated in a separate chamber
and circulated through the plant material. The heat of the steam forces the tiny intercellular
pockets that hold the essential oils to open and release them. The temperature of the steam must
be high enough to open the pouches, yet not so high that it destroys the plants or burns the
essential oils. As the steam is released, the tiny droplets of essential oil, evaporate and together
with the steam molecules, travel through a tube into the still's condensation chamber. As the
steam cools, it condenses into water. The essential oil forms a film on the surface of the water.
To separate the essential oil from the water, the film is then decanted or skimmed off the top.
The remaining water, a byproduct of distillation, is called floral water, distillate, or hydrosol. It
retains many of the therapeutic properties of the plant, making it valuable in skin care for facial
mists and toners. In certain situations, floral water may be preferable to pure essential oil; such as
when treating a sensitive individual or a child, or when a more diluted treatment is required.

 Cold Pressing or Cold Compression

Another method of extracting essential oils is cold pressed expression, or scarification. It is used
to obtain citrus fruit oils such as bergamot, grapefruit, lemon, lime, mandarin, orange, and
tangerine oils. In this process, fruit rolls over a trough with sharp projections that penetrate the
peel. This pierces the tiny pouches containing the essential oil. Then the whole fruit is pressed to
squeeze the juice from the pulp and to release the essential oil from the pouches. The essential oil
rises to the surface of the juice and is separated from the juice by centrifugation.

 Solvent Extraction

Another method of extraction used on delicate plants is solvent extraction, which yields a higher
amount of essential oil at a lower cost. In this process, a chemical solvent such as 'hexane' is used
to saturate the plant material and pull out the aromatic compounds. This renders a substance
 42-xiii

called 'concrete'. The concrete can be dissolved in alcohol to remove solvent. When the alcohol
evaporates, an 'absolute' remains. Although solvent extraction is a cost-efficient process, it has
certain disadvantages. Residues of the solvent may remain in the absolute and they can cause
side effects. While absolutes or concretes may be fine for fragrances or perfumes, they are not
desirable for skin care applications.

 Carbon Dioxide Extraction

Supercritical carbon dioxide extraction uses carbon dioxide under extremely high pressure to
extract essential oils. Plants are placed in a stainless steel tank and, as carbon dioxide is injected
into the tank, pressure inside the tank builds. Under high pressure, the carbon dioxide turns into a
liquid and acts as a solvent to extract the essential oils from the plants. When the pressure is
decreased, the carbon dioxide returns to a gaseous state, leaving no residues behind. Many
carbon dioxide extractions are fresher, cleaner, and crisper aromas than steam-distilled essential
oils, and they smell more similar to the living plants. Scientific studies show that carbon dioxide
extraction produces essential oils that are very potent and have great therapeutic benefits. This
extraction method uses lower temperatures than steam distillation, making it more gentle on the
plants. It produces higher yields and makes some materials, especially gums and resins, easier to
handle. Many essential oils that cannot be extracted by steam distillation are obtainable with
carbon dioxide extraction.

 Selected Production Process

Steam distillation is the preferred method for rose oil produced in large quantities. The steam
produced in a boiler is introduced into a vessel which contains the leaves and water. The leaves
are located on a grid placed at a certain distance above the level of the water which fills the
bottom of the vessel. The water is vaporized indirectly by steam flowing in a pipe coil
submerged by the water. The water vapor plus the distilled oil coming from the evaporator
vessel is recovered in a separate water cooled condenser. The mixture flowing out of the
condenser is separated by decantation in a Florentine flask. The oil floats at the top and is easily
separated. The distilled water still contains some soluble parts of the oil and therefore is sent
back to the evaporator.
 42-xiv

2. Environmental Impact Assessment

The essential oil production plant uses steam for extraction of essential oil and does not use any
chemical. Therefore, the plant does not have any adverse environmental impact.

B. ENGINEERING

1. Machinery and Equipment

The total cost of the turn-key plant is estimated at Birr 5,742,200, of which Birr 4,306,650 is
required in foreign currency. The list of machinery & equipment is indicated in Table 5.1.

Table 5.1
LIST OF MACHINERY

Sr.No. Description Qty.

1 Still(Extractor) 6
2 Condenser 3
3 Florentine flask 3
4 De ionizing plant 1
5 Steam boiler 1
6 Pump (condensate) 1
7 Pump (cooling water) 1
8 Cooling tower 1
9 Submersible pump 1

2. Land, Building and Civil Work

The total area of the project is 500 m 2, of which 300 m2 is a built-up area. The cost of building is
estimated at Birr 1,500,000.
 42-xv

According to the Federal Legislation on the Lease Holding of Urban Land (Proclamation No
721/2004) in principle, urban land permit by lease is on auction or negotiation basis, however,
the time and condition of applying the proclamation shall be determined by the concerned
regional or city government depending on the level of development.

The legislation has also set the maximum on lease period and the payment of lease prices. The
lease period ranges from 99 years for education, cultural research health, sport, NGO , religious
and residential area to 80 years for industry and 70 years for trade while the lease payment
period ranges from 10 years to 60 years based on the towns grade and type of investment.

Moreover, advance payment of lease based on the type of investment ranges from 5% to
10%.The lease price is payable after the grace period annually. For those that pay the entire
amount of the lease will receive 0.5% discount from the total lease value and those that pay in
installments will be charged interest based on the prevailing interest rate of banks. Moreover,
based on the type of investment, two to seven years grace period shall also be provided.

However, the Federal Legislation on the Lease Holding of Urban Land apart from setting the
maximum has conferred on regional and city governments the power to issue regulations on the
exact terms based on the development level of each region.

In Addis Ababa, the City’s Land Administration and Development Authority is directly
responsible in dealing with matters concerning land. However, regarding the manufacturing
sector, industrial zone preparation is one of the strategic intervention measures adopted by the
City Administration for the promotion of the sector and all manufacturing projects are assumed
to be located in the developed industrial zones.

Regarding land allocation of industrial zones if the land requirement of the project is below 5000
m2, the land lease request is evaluated and decided upon by the Industrial Zone Development and
Coordination Committee of the City’s Investment Authority. However, if the land request is
above 5,000 m2 , the request is evaluated by the City’s Investment Authority and passed with
 42-xvi

recommendation to the Land Development and Administration Authority for decision, while the
lease price is the same for both cases.

Moreover, the Addis Ababa City Administration has recently adopted a new land lease floor
price for plots in the city. The new prices will be used as a benchmark for plots that are going to
be auctioned by the city government or transferred under the new “Urban Lands Lease Holding
Proclamation.”

The new regulation classified the city into three zones. The first Zone is Central Market District
Zone, which is classified in five levels and the floor land lease price ranges from Birr 1,686 to
Birr 894 per m2. The rate for Central Market District Zone will be applicable in most areas of the
city that are considered to be main business areas that entertain high level of business activities.
The second zone, Transitional Zone, will also have five levels and the floor land lease price
ranges from Birr 1,035 to Birr 555 per m2 .This zone includes places that are surrounding the city
and are occupied by mainly residential units and industries. The last and the third zone,
Expansion Zone, is classified into four levels and covers areas that are considered to be in the
outskirts of the city, where the city is expected to expand in the future. The floor land lease price
in the Expansion Zone ranges from Birr 355 to Birr 191 per m2 (see Table 5.2).
 42-xvii

Table 5.2

NEW LAND LEASE FLOOR PRICE FOR PLOTS IN ADDIS ABABA

Floor
Zone Level Price/m2
1st 1686
2nd 1535
Central Market
District 3rd 1323
4th 1085
5th 894
1st 1035
2nd 935
Transitional zone 3rd 809
4th 685
5th 555
1st 355
2nd 299
Expansion zone
3rd 217
4th 191

Accordingly, in order to estimate the land lease cost of the project profiles it is assumed that all
new manufacturing projects will be located in industrial zones located in expansion zones.
Therefore, for the profile a land lease rate of Birr 266 per m 2 which is equivalent to the average
floor price of plots located in expansion zone is adopted.

On the other hand, some of the investment incentives arranged by the Addis Ababa City
Administration on lease payment for industrial projects are granting longer grace period and
extending the lease payment period. The criterions are creation of job opportunity, foreign
exchange saving, investment capital and land utilization tendency etc. Accordingly, Table 5.3
shows incentives for lease payment.
 42-xviii

Table 5.3
INCENTIVES FOR LEASE PAYMENT OF INDUSTRIAL PROJECTS
Payment Down
Grace Completion Paymen
Scored Point Period Period t
Above 75% 5 Years 30 Years 10%
From 50 - 75% 5 Years 28 Years 10%
From 25 - 49% 4 Years 25 Years 10%

For the purpose of this project profile, the average i.e. five years grace period, 28 years payment
completion period and 10% down payment is used. The land lease period for industry is 60
years.

Accordingly, the total land lease cost at a rate of Birr 266 per m 2 is estimated at Birr 133,000 of
which 10% or Birr 13,300 will be paid in advance. The remaining Birr 119,700 will be paid in
equal installments with in 28 years i.e. Birr 4,275 annually.

VI. HUMANRESOURCE AND TRAINING REQUIREMENT

A. HUMANRESOURCE REQUIREMENT

The list of human resource and cost are indicated in Table 6.1. The total annual cost of human
resource is estimated at Birr 346,500.
 42-xix

Table 6.1
HUMANRESOURCE REQUIREMENT & LABOR COST

Sr.No. Manpower Req.No Monthly Annual Salary

. Salary (Birr) (Birr)
1 General manager 1 5,000 60,000
2 Secretary 1 1,200 14,400
3 Accountant 1 2,500 30,000
4 Production and technical 1 3,000
head 36,000
5 Mechanic 1 1,500 18,000
6 Quality control 1 1,500 18,000
7 Operators 6 5,400 64,800
8 Ass. Operators 3 1,800 21,600
9 Guards 3 1,200 14,400
Sub- total 18 23,100 277,200
Benefits (25% BS) 5,775 69,300
Total 28,875 346,500

B. TRAINING REQUIREMENT

On-the-job training is carried out during plant erection and commissioning by the experts of
machinery suppliers and Wondo -genet University. The cost of training is estimated at Birr
50,000.

VII. FINANCIAL ANALYSIS

The financial analysis of the essential oil project is based on the data presented in the previous
chapters and the following assumptions:-
Construction period 1 year
Source of finance 30 % equity and 70% loan
Tax holidays 5 years
Bank interest 10%
Discount cash flow 10%
Accounts receivable 30 days
Raw material local 30 days
Work in progress 5 days
Finished products 30 days
Cash in hand 5 days
Accounts payable 30 days
 42-xx

Repair and maintenance 5% of machinery cost

A. TOTAL INITIAL INVESTMENT COST

The total investment cost of the project including working capital is estimated at Birr 43.14
million (see Table 7.1). From the total investment cost the highest share (Birr 31.39 million or
72.76%) is accounted by initial working capital followed by fixed investment cost (Birr 8.40
million or 19.48 %) and pre operation cost (Birr 3.34 million or 7.75 %). From the total
investment cost Birr 4.30 million or 9.99% is required in foreign currency.

Table 7.1

INITIAL INVESTMENT COST ( ‘000 Birr)

Sr. Local Foreign Total %

No. Cost Items Cost Cost Cost Share
1 Fixed investment
1.1 Land Lease 13.30 13.30 0.03
1.2 Building and civil work 1,500.00 1,500.00 3.48
1.3 Machinery and equipment 1,434.55 4,307.65 5,742.20 13.31
1.4 Vehicles 900.00 900.00 2.09
1.5 Office furniture and equipment 250.00 250 0.58
Sub -total 4,097.85 4,307.65 8,405.50 19.48
2 Pre operating cost *
2.1 Pre operating cost 522.27 522.27 1.21
2.2 Interest during construction 2,822.26 2,822.26 6.54
Sub- total 3,344.53 3,344.53 7.75
3 Working capital ** 31,390.17 31,390.17 72.76
Grand Total 38,832.54 4,307.65 43,140.19 100
* N.B Pre operating cost include project implementation cost such as installation, startup,
commissioning, project engineering, project management etc and capitalized interest during
construction.
** The total working capital required at full capacity operation is Birr 41.83 million. However,
only the initial working capital of Birr 31.39 million during the first year of production is
assumed to be funded through external sources. During the remaining years the working
capital requirement will be financed by funds to be generated internally (for detail working
capital requirement see Appendix 7.A.1).
 42-xxi

B. PRODUCTION COST

The annual production cost at full operation capacity is estimated at Birr 326.33 million (see
Table 7.2). The cost of raw material and utility account for 98.25% of the production cost. The
other major components of the production cost are financial cost and depreciation, which account
for 0.83% and 0.47 %, respectively. The remaining 0.45% is the share of labor, repair and
maintenance, labor overhead and administration cost. For detail production cost see Appendix
7.A.2.

Table 7.2

ANNUAL PRODUCTION COST AT FULL CAPACITY (YEAR THREE)

Items Cost
(in 000 Birr) %
Raw Material and Inputs
60,075.00 18.41
Utilities
260,554.00 79.84
Maintenance and repair
172.00 0.05
Labor direct
277.00 0.08
Labor overheads
69.00 0.02
Administration Costs
200.00 0.06
Land lease cost
- -
Cost of marketing and distribution
750.00 0.23
Total Operating Costs
322,097.00 98.70
Depreciation
1,517.89 0.47
Cost of Finance
2,716.42 0.83
Total Production Cost
326,331.31 100
 42-xxii

C. FINANCIAL EVALUATION

1. Profitability

Based on the projected profit and loss statement, the project will generate a profit through out its
operation life. Annual net profit after tax will grow from Birr 9.84 million to Birr 10.72 million
during the life of the project. Moreover, at the end of the project life the accumulated net cash
flow amounts to Birr 108.79 million. For profit and loss statement and cash flow projection see
Appendix 7.A.3 and 7.A.4, respectively.

2. Ratios

In financial analysis financial ratios and efficiency ratios are used as an index or yardstick for
evaluating the financial position of a firm. It is also an indicator for the strength and weakness of
the firm or a project. Using the year-end balance sheet figures and other relevant data, the most
important ratios such as return on sales which is computed by dividing net income by revenue,
return on assets (operating income divided by assets), return on equity (net profit divided by
equity) and return on total investment (net profit plus interest divided by total investment) has
been carried out over the period of the project life and all the results are found to be satisfactory.

3. Break-even Analysis

The break-even analysis establishes a relationship between operation costs and revenues. It
indicates the level at which costs and revenue are in equilibrium. To this end, the break-even
point for capacity utilization and sales value estimated by using income statement projection are
computed as follows.

Break -Even Sales Value = Fixed Cost + Financial Cost = Birr 47,385,270
Variable Margin ratio (%)

Break -Even Capacity utilization = Break -even Sales Value X 100 = 14 %

Sales revenue

4. Pay-back Period
The pay -back period, also called pay- off period is defined as the period required for recovering
the original investment outlay through the accumulated net cash flows earned by the project.
 42-xxiii

Accordingly, based on the projected cash flow it is estimated that the project’s initial investment
will be fully recovered within 5 years.

5. Internal Rate of Return

The internal rate of return (IRR) is the annualized effective compounded return rate that can be
earned on the invested capital, i.e., the yield on the investment. Put another way, the internal rate
of return for an investment is the discount rate that makes the net present value of the
investment's income stream total to zero. It is an indicator of the efficiency or quality of an
investment. A project is a good investment proposition if its IRR is greater than the rate of return
that could be earned by alternate investments or putting the money in a bank account.
Accordingly, the IRR of this project is computed to be 25.04% indicating the viability of the
project.

6. Net Present Value

Net present value (NPV) is defined as the total present (discounted) value of a time series of cash
flows. NPV aggregates cash flows that occur during different periods of time during the life of a
project in to a common measuring unit i.e. present value. It is a standard method for using the
time value of money to appraise long-term projects. NPV is an indicator of how much value an
investment or project adds to the capital invested. In principle, a project is accepted if the NPV is
non-negative. Accordingly, the net present value of the project at 10% discount rate is found to
be Birr 42.42 million which is acceptable. For detail discounted cash flow see Appendix 7.A.5.

D. ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL BENEFITS

The project can create employment for 18 persons. The project will generate Birr 28.85 million
in terms of tax revenue. The establishment of such factory will have a foreign exchange saving
effect to the country by substituting the current imports and exporting to the world market. The
project will also create backward linkage with the floriculture sector and forward linkage with
the pharmaceuticals; food processing and cosmetics sub sectors and also generate income for the
Government in terms of payroll tax.
 42-xxiv

Appendix 7.A
FINANCIAL ANALYSES SUPPORTING TABLES
 42-23

Appendix 7.A.1
NET WORKING CAPITAL ( in 000 Birr)

Items Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Year 11
15,018.7 15,018.7 15,018.7
Total inventory 11,264.06 12,765.94 5 15,018.75 15,018.75 5 15,018.75 15,018.75 5 15,018.75
26,841.4 26,841.7 26,841.7
Accounts receivable 20,146.69 22,824.58 2 26,841.42 26,841.77 7 26,841.77 26,841.77 7 26,841.77

Cash-in-hand 7.48 8.48 9.97 9.97 10.03 10.03 10.03 10.03 10.03 10.03
41,870.1 41,870.5 41,870.5
CURRENT ASSETS 31,418.23 35,598.99 4 41,870.14 41,870.55 5 41,870.55 41,870.55 5 41,870.55

Accounts payable 28.06 31.80 37.42 37.42 37.42 37.42 37.42 37.42 37.42 37.42
CURRENT
LIABILITIES 28.06 31.80 37.42 37.42 37.42 37.42 37.42 37.42 37.42 37.42
TOTAL WORKING 41,832.7 41,833.1 41,833.1
CAPITAL 31,390.17 35,567.19 2 41,832.72 41,833.14 4 41,833.14 41,833.14 4 41,833.14
 42-24

Appendix 7.A.2
PRODUCTION COST ( in 000 Birr)

Item Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Year 11

Raw Material and Inputs 45,056 51,064 60,075 60,075 60,075 60,075 60,075 60,075 60,075 60,075

Utilities 195,416 221,471 260,554 260,554 260,554 260,554 260,554 260,554 260,554 260,554

Maintenance and repair 129 146 172 172 172 172 172 172 172 172

Labour direct 208 235 277Appendix

277 7.A.3
277 277 277 277 277 277

Labour overheads 52 INCOME

59 STATEMENT
69 69 (69in 000 Birr)
69 69 69 69 69

Administration Costs 150 170 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200
Year Year
Land lease cost
Item 0 2 Year
Year 0 3 Year 0 4 Year 0 5 Year 4 6 Year 4 7 Year4 8 4 9 104
Year 114
Cost of marketing 253,12 337,50 337,50 337,50
and distribution
Sales revenue 7505 750
286,875 750
337,500 7500 750
337,500 750
337,500 7500 750
337,500 7500 750
337,500
Total Operating Costs 241,01 273,895 322,097 322,097
241,760 321,34 322,101 322,101 322,101
321,34 321,34 322,101
322,101 322,101
Less variable costs 0 273,145 321,347 7 321,347 321,347 7 321,347 7 321,347
Depreciation 1,518 1,518 1,518 1,518 1,518 85 85 85 85 85
VARIABLE MARGIN 12,115 13,730 16,153 16,153 16,153 16,153 16,153 16,153 16,153 16,153
inCost
% ofofsales
Finance
revenue 04.79 3,104
4.79 2,716
4.79 2,328
4.79 1,940
4.79 1,552
4.79 1,164
4.79 776
4.79 388
4.79 04.79
Less fixed
Total costs
Production Cost 2,268 278,517
243,278 2,268 326,331
2,268 325,943
2,268 325,559
2,272 323,739
839 323,350
839 322,962
839 322,574
839 839
322,186

OPERATIONAL MARGIN 9,847 11,462 13,885 13,885 13,881 15,314 15,314 15,314 15,314 15,314
in % of sales revenue 3.89 4.00 4.11 4.11 4.11 4.54 4.54 4.54 4.54 4.54
Financial costs 3,104 2,716 2,328 1,940 1,552 1,164 776 388 0
GROSS PROFIT 9,847 8,358 11,169 11,557 11,941 13,761 14,150 14,538 14,926 15,314
in % of sales revenue 3.89 2.91 3.31 3.42 3.54 4.08 4.19 4.31 4.42 4.54
Income (corporate) tax 0 0 0 3,467 3,582 4,128 4,245 4,361 4,478 4,594
NET PROFIT 9,847 8,358 11,169 8,090 8,358 9,633 9,905 10,176 10,448 10,720
in % of sales revenue 3.89 2.91 3.31 2.40 2.48 2.85 2.93 3.02 3.10 3.18
 42-25

Appendix 7.A.4
CASH FLOW FOR FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT ( in 000 Birr)

Year Year Year

Item 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 10 11 Scrap
TOTAL CASH 287,36 337,50 337,50
INFLOW 8,928 5 286,879 337,506 337,500 0 337,500 337,500 0 337,500 337,500 45,569
Inflow funds 8,928 34,240 4 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
253,12 337,50 337,50
Inflow operation 0 5 286,875 337,500 337,500 0 337,500 337,500 0 337,500 337,500 0
Other income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 45,569
TOTAL CASH 276,00 331,50 331,11
OUTFLOW 8,928 1 285,061 334,965 331,773 5 331,663 331,391 9 330,848 326,695 0
Increase in fixed assets 8,928 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Increase in current
assets 0 31,418 4,181 6,271 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
241,01 321,35 321,35
Operating costs 0 0 273,145 321,347 321,347 1 321,351 321,351 1 321,351 321,351 0
Marketing and
Distribution cost 0 750 750 750 750 750 750 750 750 750 750 0
Income tax 0 0 0 0 3,467 3,582 4,128 4,245 4,361 4,478 4,594 0
Financial costs 0 2,822 3,104 2,716 2,328 1,940 1,552 1,164 776 388 0 0
Loan repayment 0 0 3,881 3,881 3,881 3,881 3,881 3,881 3,881 3,881 0 0
SURPLUS
(DEFICIT) 0 11,365 1,818 2,540 5,727 5,995 5,837 6,109 6,381 6,652 10,805 45,569
CUMULATIVE
CASH
BALANCE 0 11,365 13,183 15,723 21,450 27,445 33,283 39,392 45,773 52,425 63,230 108,798
 42-26

Appendix 7.A.5
DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW ( in 000 Birr)

Year Year Year Year Year

Item Year 1 2 Year 3 4 Year 5 6 Year 7 8 Year 9 10 Year 11 Scrap
337,50 337,50 337,50
TOTAL CASH INFLOW 0 253,125 286,875 0 337,500 337,500 0 337,500 337,500 0 337,500 45,569
337,50 337,50 337,50
Inflow operation 0 253,125 286,875 0 337,500 337,500 0 337,500 337,500 0 337,500 0
Other income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 45,569
322,09 326,23 326,57
TOTAL CASH OUTFLOW 40,318 245,937 280,160 7 325,564 325,683 0 326,346 326,463 9 326,695 0
Increase in fixed assets 8,928 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Increase in net working capital 31,390 4,177 6,266 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
321,34 321,35 321,35
Operating costs 0 241,010 273,145 7 321,347 321,351 1 321,351 321,351 1 321,351 0

Marketing and Distribution cost 0 750 750 750 750 750 750 750 750 750 750 0
Income (corporate) tax 0 0 0 3,467 3,582 4,128 4,245 4,361 4,478 4,594 0

NET CASH FLOW -40,318 7,188 6,715 15,403 11,936 11,817 11,270 11,154 11,037 10,921 10,805 45,569

CUMULATIVE NET CASH FLOW -40,318 -33,130 -26,416 -11,013 923 12,739 24,010 35,164 46,201 57,122 67,927 113,495
Net present value -40,318 6,534 5,549 11,573 8,152 7,337 6,362 5,724 5,149 4,632 4,166 17,569
Cumulative net present value -40,318 -33,784 -28,234 -16,662 -8,510 -1,173 5,189 10,913 16,062 20,693 24,859 42,428

NET PRESENT VALUE 42,428

INTERNAL RATE OF RETURN 25.04%
NORMAL PAYBACK 5 years