Course: Decision Science - Internal Assignment December 2022 Examination
Answer No 1
In the given scenario, your favorite team Garuda is in the final season of Indian Premier League.
Raj Kaul an expert has assigned a probability of 60% that Garuda will win based on his study
of the current scenario. Past records indicate that when teams win the championship, they win
the first game of the series 70% of the time. When they lose the series, they win the first game
25% of the time.
Probability is the branch of mathematics concerning numerical description of how likely an
event is to occur, or how likely it is that a proposition is true. The probability of an event is a
number between 0 and 1. 0 indicates impossibility and 1 indicated certainty. The higher the
probability of event the more likely it is that event will occur.
Let W be the event that your team wins the championship and F be the event that they win the
first game
So, Wc is the event they lose the championship and Fc is the event that they lose the first game.
Given W = 0.6,
(F|W) = 0.7,
(F| Wc) = 0.25
Formula – P (A) + P(Ac) = 1 and (Bc|A) + (B|A) = 1
We find P(Wc) = 1 – P(W)
= 1 – 0.6
= 0.4.
(Fc|W) = 1 – (F|W)
= 1 – 0.7
= 0.3.
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(Fc|wc) = 1 – P(F)
= 1 – 0.25
= 0.75.
Following is the probability tree:
F|W 0.7
W 0.6
Fc| W 0.3
F|WC 0.25
WC 0.4
Fc | W C 0.75
We want to compute (W|FC) = P (W Fc), we need to find P(W Fc) and P(fc)
P(Fc|W) P(W) = 0.3 * 0.6 = 0.18.
To find P(Wc Fc) = P(Fc|Wc) P(Wc) = 0.75 * 0.4 = 0.3.
P(Fc) = P(W Fc) + P(Wc Fc) = 0.18 + 0.3 = 0.48.
P(W|Fc) = P(W Fc)/P(Fc) = 0.18/0.48
P(W|Fc) = 0.375
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Answer No 2
The first step in determining the equation of the regression line that posses through the sample
data is to establish the equation’s form. Several different types of equations of line are discussed
in algebra, finite math or analytic geometry course.
Calculation of Regression Analysis:
Customer Quality Ratings
Satisfaction Score given by Customer
(Y) (X) X*Y χ2 y²
5 5 25 25 25
5 5 25 25 25
5 4 20 16 25
5 4 20 16 25
5 5 25 25 25
5 5 25 25 25
5 3 15 9 25
5 5 25 25 25
4 4 16 16 16
4 4 16 16 16
4 4 16 16 16
4 4 16 16 16
4 3 12 9 16
4 3 12 9 16
4 4 16 16 16
4 2 8 4 16
3 3 9 9 9
3 3 9 9 9
3 3 9 9 9
3 2 6 4 9
2 2 4 4 4
2 2 4 4 4
1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1
1 3 3 9 1
1 1 1 1 1
ΣY = 93 ΣX = 86 ΣX * ΣY = 340 Σ χ2= 320 Σ y² = 377
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N = 27
Mean of X = ΣX/N = 86/27 = 3.1852
Mean of Y = ΣY/N = 93/27 = 3.4444
Byx = NΣXY - ΣX*ΣY
NΣχ2 - X *2
= 27*340 - 86 * 93
27 * 320 - 86 * 86
= 9180 – 7998
8640 – 7396
= 1182
1244
= 0.9502
Regression Line Y on X
Y - Mean of Y = Byx (X - Mean of X)
Y - 3.4444 = 0.9502 (X - 3.1852)
Y - 3.4444 = 0.9502* X - 3.0264
Y = 0.9502 * X - 3.0264 + 3.4444
Y = 0.9502X +0.418
The most commonly used form of regression is linear regression, and the most common type
of linear regression is called ordinary least square regression.
Linear regression uses the values from an existing data set consisting of measurements of the
values of two variables X and Y to develop a model that is useful for predicting the value of
the dependent variable, Y for given values of X.
A linear regression line has an equation of the form Y = a + bX, where X is the explanatory
variable and Y is the dependent variable. The slope of the line is B and A is the intercept
B1 or beta is the coefficient of X and the slope of the regression line also represents how much
Y changes for each unit change in X.
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Answer No 3.a
Introduction –
Relative Frequency is the proportion of the total frequency that is any given class interval in a
frequency distribution. Relative frequency is the individual class frequency divided by the total
frequency.
Formula - Relative Frequency = Individual Class Frequency
Total Frequency
Calculation of Relative Frequency
State Name District Name Total MSME (C) Relative Frequency
(A) (B) D = C / Total Frequency
i.e., C/ Total MSME (6651)
Tripura West Tripura 2915 = 2915/6651 = 0.4383
Tripura South Tripura 586 = 58/6651 = 0.0881
Tripura Dhalai 439 = 439/6651 = 0.0660
Tripura North Tripura 854 = 854/6651 = 0.1284
Tripura Khowai 514 =514/6651 = 0.0773
Tripura Unakoti 447 =447/6651 = 0.0672
Tripura Sepahijala 383 =383/6651 = 0.0576
Tripura Gomati 513 =513/6651 = 0.0771
Total 6651
Using the above data, following are the graphs prepared and presented.
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Frequency Polygon
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
-
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Number of Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises #REF!
Clustered Graph
District Name Number of Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises #REF!
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
AndhraAndhra
Pradesh
Andhra
Pradesh
Andhra
Pradesh
Andhra
Pradesh
Andhra
Pradesh
Andhra
Pradesh
Andhra
Pradesh
Andhra
Pradesh
Andhra
Pradesh
Andhra
Pradesh
Andhra
Pradesh
Andhra
Pradesh
Pradesh
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Answer No 3.b (1)
A bar chart or bar graph is a chart or graph that presents categorical data with rectangular bars
with heights or lengths proportional to the values that they represent. The bars can be plotted
vertically or horizontally. A vertical bar chart is sometimes called a column chart. A bar graph
shows comparisons among discreate categories. One axis of a chart shows the specific
categories being compared, and other axis represents a measured value. Some bar graphs
present bars clustered in groups of more than one showing the values of more than one
measured variable.
Based on the given data, the top districts are SPSR Nellore and Prakasam.
Number of Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises
SPSR Nellore
Prakasam
YSR
West Godavari
Vizianagaram
Visakhapatnam
Chitoor
East Godavari
Guntur
Krishna
Ananthapur
Kurnool
Srikakulam
- 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000
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Answer No 3.b (2)
The median is the middle value in an ordered array of numbers. For an array with an odd
number of terms, the median is the middle number. For an array with an even number of terms,
the median is the average of the two middle numbers.
Steps to determine the medium:
• Arrange the observations in an ordered data array.
• For an odd number of terms, find the middle term of the ordered array. It is the median.
• For an even number of terms, find the average of the middle two terms. This average is
the median.
Therefore, based on the given data we have 13 different number of Micro, small and medium
enterprises so, first we have to arrange the data in the ascending order.
Number of Micro, Small and
State Name District Name Medium Enterprises
Andhra Pradesh Srikakulam 10,895
Andhra Pradesh Kurnool 15,362
Andhra Pradesh Ananthapur 21,193
Andhra Pradesh Krishna 23,231
Andhra Pradesh Guntur 25,479
Andhra Pradesh East Godavari 26,546
Andhra Pradesh Chitoor 27,670
Andhra Pradesh Visakhapatnam 29,070
Andhra Pradesh Vizianagaram 30,186
Andhra Pradesh West Godavari 33,541
Andhra Pradesh YSR 37,500
Andhra Pradesh Prakasam 45,171
Andhra Pradesh SPSR Nellore 54,059
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The above data is arranged in ascending order.
To find the median – Formula – n + 1
2
where = n = 13
= 13 + 1
2
= 14/2
Median = 7
Therefore, based upon the given table, median is Chitoor i.e., 27,670.
Following is the list of districts above median value.
Number of Micro,
Small and Medium
State Name District Name Enterprises
Andhra Pradesh Chitoor 27,670
Andhra Pradesh Visakhapatnam 29,070
Andhra Pradesh Vizianagaram 30,186
Andhra Pradesh West Godavari 33,541
Andhra Pradesh YSR 37,500
Andhra Pradesh Prakasam 45,171
Andhra Pradesh SPSR Nellore 54,059
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