Oil & Gas Uk - 2021
Oil & Gas Uk - 2021
Oil & Gas Uk - 2021
DECOMMISSIONING INSIGHT
2021
NEW – OGUK's Interacti ve
Decommissioning Toolkit
1
Our vision is to ensure the
UK Continental Shelf becomes the
most attractive mature oil and gas
province in the world with which to
do business. The UK Oil and Gas Industry Association Limited (trading as OGUK) 2021
OGUK uses reasonable efforts to ensure that the materials and information contained in the report are current and accurate. OGUK offers the
materials and information in good faith and believes that the information is correct at the date of publication. The materials and information
Read all our industry reports at are supplied to you on the condition that you or any other person receiving them will make their own determination as to their suitability and
www.oguk.org.uk/publications appropriateness for any proposed purpose prior to their use. Neither OGUK nor any of its members assume liability for any use made thereof.
DECOMMISSIONING INSIGHT 2021
1. Foreword 4
2. Key Findings 6
3. Decommissioning in the UK – Pressing on Post Pandemic 6
3.1 Short term outlook 2020 – 2024 6
3.2 Decommissioning over the next decade 10
4. The UK in detail 14
4.1 Well activity over the next decade 14
4.2 Removals activity over the next decade 16
OGUK's Interactive 4.3 Subsea decommissioning activity over the next decade 20
Decommissioning Toolkit 5. The Wider North Sea Perspective 22
5.1 A look at North Sea activity over the next decade 22
Scan the QR code above 5.2 A Focus on Norway 24
or visit 5.3 A Focus on the Netherlands 26
oguk.org.uk/decommissioning 6. Decommissioning and the Energy Transition 28
7. Appendices 32
7.1 Maturity of Estimates 32
7.2 Glossary 33
7.3 Forecast Activity in the UKCS over the next decade
– A detailed Snapshot 35
Welcome to OGUK’s Decommissioning Insight 2021, marking the end of a year use the tool to create data visualisations that build stronger business cases
in which we saw some recovery after the challenges of the global pandemic with more relevant inputs. I am sure the founders of WG4 would be proud
and commodity price collapse in 2020. While some of those challenges remain, that the Decommissioning Insight report continues to grow from strength
the UK decommissioning industry is looking to the future with purpose. We’re to strength, embracing innovative ways to provide industry with ever more
establishing our key role in the transition to a low carbon energy mix, and granular market intelligence on decommissioning.
executing safe, innovative, and environmentally sound decommissioning. All
while continuing our journey to be safely more cost effective and to maximise Industry’s decommissioning success will depend on driving continuous
the export potential of our goods and services. improvement in efficiency and cost reduction. The 2021 Oil & Gas Authority
(OGA) cost estimate report said that the total cost of the industry’s
The UK industry has been working on decommissioning projects for decades, decommissioning bill had fallen by 23%. In 2017 it was £59.7 billion compared
and OGUK has been at the forefront. Many in the industry will remember with £46 billion this year. This is great progress, but there’s more to do if we are
workgroup 4 (WG4), first established in 2007 when the supply chain became to reach our 35% target by 2022. Together with industry, OGUK developed the
an integral part of OGUK’s remit. This was a pivotal moment in the UK Supply Chain Principles which define excellent practice in business behaviour.
decommissioning industry, helping to drive collaborative behaviours which During 2021, we’ve seen signs that our sector is increasing its support for
the wider industry can learn from. WG4 was responsible for launching many these principles, with innovative ways of working becoming a key focus.
initiatives including the first of its market leading decommissioning guidelines,
the annual Offshore Decommissioning conference and this Decommissioning Examples include new and creative contracting practices which enable the
Insight report. Together, this demonstrates that when operators and the implementation of multi-operator campaigns and allow work scopes to be
supply chain work towards the same goals, great things can be achieved. aggregated. This provides our world-class supply chain with much-needed
visibility of future work. In this way, it can hone its expertise and further
Demand for OGUK’s Decommissioning Insight continues to grow, and for this develop capabilities to achieve the commercial transformation ambitions
12th issue we are incorporating an interactive online tool to give users access outlined in the OGA’s decommissioning strategy. With £16.6 billion to be
to extensive information in more granular detail. Operators can compare their spent on decommissioning over the next decade, now is the time to act.
own data with their peers’ while companies providing goods and services can
In the year of COP26, this industry continues to play a vital role in the energy
transition to a low carbon economy as the UK strives to cut its greenhouse
gas emissions at pace. We’re focusing on greener ways to decommission
and identify circular economy opportunities. That means re-purposing
offshore infrastructure for hydrogen and carbon capture & storage projects,
Industry remains resilient through pandemic A decade of decommissioning- the time is now
50%
OUT OF
SERVICE
last year
~88,000 tonnes of
• 1,083 platform wells subsea structures
• 582 subsea
• 117 Exploration and appraisal wells >16,500 mattresses
of Almost 350km of pipelines
~50km of ~4,500 subsea ~1,600 mattresses to be removed
pipelines tonnes
structures
OUT OF
SERVICE
125 topsides ~1.2
~1.2 million tonnes* of million
to be removed tonnes
(~700,000 tonnes) infrastructure from UK alone
*note – not including pipelines
12%
OUT OF
SERVICE
115 jackets to be
Decommissioning is 12% of industry expenditure in 2021 decommissioned 1/3 of the infrastructure 1/3
(~400,000 tonnes) installed in the UK today
Industry working to become more effective and efficient: Re-use and re-purposing
Operators
AB
TA
infrastructure for:
TIO
CAP
Proje
ct
CCUS Hydrogen Offshore Wind Geothermal
N
s
EXP
SERVICE SERVICE
150 wells
SERVICE
OUT OF
SERVICE
OUT OF
SERVICE
£1.345
Expenditure (£ Billion)
10
0.50
5
0.00 -
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Source: OGA & OGUK
Source: OGA & OGUK
25 Decommissioning Expenditure
20
15
10
5
0
1972
2006
2012
1970
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2008
2010
2014
2016
2018
2020
Source: OGUK, OGA
10 DECOMMISSIONING INSIGHT 2021
In line with previous reports, Decommissioning Insight 2021 focuses on expenditure for be why we see an expenditure spike in 2022 with much of the deferred activity displaced
ten years ahead, highlighting the near-term opportunities for the UK’s decommissioning to that year. This year, £1.45 billion is forecast to be spent, perhaps marking a return to
supply chain. The UK industry should be able to use the information in this report to help business as usual.
position itself as a global leader in the decommissioning market.
£16.57 billion will be spent on decommissioning in the UK over the next decade – Figure
Industry becoming more cost effective –Figure 2 shows the annual expenditure broken 3 shows the cumulative expenditure curves from recent Decommissioning Insight reports.
down into the 11 elements of the work breakdown structure (WBS). There are clear peaks The forecast cumulative expenditure in 2020 is shown by the purple line. At that point,
in the expenditure profiles in 2022 (£1.87bn), 2026 (£2.00bn) and 2028 (£2.24bn) which lift there was no real certainty on a vaccine programme and the oil price in 2020 averaged
the average but otherwise expenditure remains around £1.5 billion per year as in previous $41.88/bbl (compared with $64.30/bbl in 2019) and $69.45/bbl as of the end of October
insight reports. Decommissioning Insight reports for the years 2018, 2019 and 2020 all 2021. The 2020 report therefore explored a range of “reduced expenditure scenarios” for
showed expenditure levels for the next ten years (in each case) of just over £15 billion. decommissioning, with the low end at around £22.1 billion by 2030. The orange line shows
Decommissioning Insight 2017 showed a £17 billion anticipated expenditure. This year’s the cumulative expenditure using the 2021 data set. The figures show that the industry will
dataset has more wells, more platforms and more subsea removal weight, and is expected have spent just over £26.5 billion on decommissioning by 2030.
to cost over £400 million less.
The industry has effectively managed its offshore activity despite the pandemic, and while
Decommissioning Insight 2017 Decommissioning Insight 2021 the virus means the future is still uncertain, many lessons have been learned and processes
are now in place to mitigate many of the known implications to working offshore in this
Wells 1,624 1,782 environment. Commodity prices remain volatile, particularly in the case of gas. Brent
Platforms 98 125 crude has seen some relative stability since mid-year, trading consistently above $70/bbl,
following an increase from $50/bbl at the start of the year. However, gas prices have
Subsea Structures 49,373 tonnes 87,974
increased by more than 400 per cent throughout the year, reaching record and prolonged
Total Expenditure £17 billion £16.57 billion high levels. While this may result in the deferral of some decommissioning activity, the
impact will be fully assessed next year.
Industry withstands the shocks of volatile pricing and COVID – Figure 2 also shows the
actual expenditure in the UK decommissioning industry. In 2018 industry spent almost The light blue line shows the cumulative expenditure in 2017. This was the year the OGA
£1.3 billion, rising to almost £1.35 billion in 2019. This trend was expected to continue introduced the industry target to reduce the total forecast costs of decommissioning by
with Decommissioning Insight 2020 forecasting £1.47 billion in 2020. But like many other 35 per cent, from an initial 50% probability estimate (P50) of £60 billion to a target of £39
sectors, the industry was impacted by the COVID pandemic and the commodity price billion. The 2017 forecast would have seen about £32.2 billion spent by 2030. This shows
fluctuations. Still, it spent almost £1.1 billion, only 20 per cent less than it had the year that while there has been a minor increase in expected expenditure over the next decade,
before. While this reduction was partly due to cost efficiencies, much of the expenditure this year compared with last, it is significantly less than the 2021 spend forecast in 2017.
reduction in 2020 was due to activity being pushed to later years in the data set. This may
DECOMMISSIONING INSIGHT 2021 11
5%
7%
OUT OF
SERVICE
5%
16% 5% 43%
Central North Sea
Figure 5 – Work Breakdown Structure
7% Northern North Sea
Southern North Sea
West of Shetland
Central North Sea Central North Sea
16% 43% 43%
Northern North Sea
Irish Sea
Northern North Sea
Southern North Sea Southern North Sea
West of Shetland West of Shetland
29%
OUT OF
SERVICE
29%
Source: OGA & OGUK
Source: OGA & OGUK
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Project Post-CoP Well Facilities & Pipelines Topsides Topsides Substructure Topsides and Subsea Site Post-
Management Running Costs Decommissioning Permanent Isolation Preparation Removal removal Sub-structure Infrastructure Remediation Decommissioning
& Cleaning Onshore Disposal Monitoring
Central North Sea £471.17 £724.75 £3,805.38 £126.36 £233.85 £461.24 £249.62 £215.26 £825.57 £42.12 £28.62 £7,183.95
Southern North Sea
£206.65 £187.41 £1,578.05 £50.72 £118.31 £466.51 £275.05 £113.77 £348.20 £113.44 £28.67 £3,486.78
& East Irish Sea
TOTAL £1,114.69 £1,569.17 £8,241.55 £660.55 £509.92 £1,475.79 £738.73 £459.41 £1,531.69 £193.74 £71.46 £16,566.72
90% Decommissioning is 12.1 per cent of UK offshore Decommissioning expenditure is dominated by central
80% expenditure – In 2021 the UKCS oil and gas industry and northern North Sea – Almost £7.2 billion (43 per
70% is forecast to spend just over £12.1 billion across all cent of the total) will be spent on projects in the central
60% activities, as shown in Figure 4. Around £1.46 billion of this North Sea (CNS) over the next decade, with almost £4
50%
is on decommissioning, representing around 12.1 per cent billion going on well decommissioning. Figure 6 shows that
40%
of the total expenditure. decommissioning projects in the CNS account for almost
30 percent of the expenditure in 2021 but this rises to
30%
Deferral of well decommissioning increases forecast above 50 per cent by 2030. Expenditure in the Southern
20%
expenditure – This year’s dataset shows that over North Sea (SNS) accounts for almost 30 per cent in 2021
10%
£8.241 billion (50 per cent of the total) will be spent on but this proportion falls in the middle of the decade, as
0%
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
decommissioning 1,782 wells over the next decade, up some major projects come to an end. Then the focus shifts
CNS NNS SNS WoS IS from £7.390 billion (1,616 wells) in last year’s report. to the Irish Sea (IS) and West of Shetland (WoS).
Source: OGA & OGUK
Looking at the 2019 Decommissioning Insight report, the
industry forecasts that around £6.8 billion will be spent Expenditure profiles differ in regions throughout the
Figure 7 – Breakdown of Expenditure by WBS
on decommissioning 1,630 wells over the ten-year period. North Sea - Figure 7 shows the total expenditure in
element by Region (2021-30) This is £1.4 billion more and will include 152 additional each region, broken down into the different elements
100%
wells over the decade. of the decommissioning WBS. This chart shows the
nuances experienced in different regions. For example,
80%
Well decommissioning was a key focus area in 2020, post cessation of production (CoP) running costs play a
60% sparking initiatives within industry associations and larger role in the NNS and CNS compared with the SNS.
regulators as industry looked to support the industry’s This is because the assets are much larger, housing more
40% recovery by stimulating activity throughout the basin. Last people and being more complex. A greater share of
year’s asset stewardship survey was conducted before the decommissioning projects has been conducted in the SNS
20%
COVID pandemic took hold, and since then almost half the where tail-end decommissioning activities, such as site
0% wells have had to be postponed for a year or more. remediation, play a larger role.
CNS NNS & WoS SNS & IS
Post-Decommissioning Monitoring Site Remediation
Subsea Infrastructure Topsides and Sub-structure Onshore Disposal
Substructure Removal Topsides Removal
Topsides Preparation Facilities & Pipelines Permanent Isolation & Cleaning
Well Decommissioning Post CoP Running Costs
Project Management
Source: OGA & OGUK
10
300
2
Average = £4.77m
150 Average = £2.98m Median = £5.55m
Median = £3.11m
0
2019 2020 2021 2019 2020 2021 2019 2020 2021
Average = £5.42m
Median = £5.09m
10
Average = £2.45m
NNS & Median = £2.97m
6
Platform Well 275 325 483 1,083 61% Average = £2.45m
Median = £3.04m Average = £2.34m
Median = £2.70m
Suspended 2
Average = £3.25m
32 51 55 117 7% Average = £2.88m
Median = £3.37m
E&A 0
Median = £2.38m
£7,000
80,000
£0
0 0 2019 2020 2021 2019 2020 2021
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Topsisdes Substructures
Source: OGA & OGUK Source: OGA & OGUK
Source: OGA & OGUK
Figure 10b – Number of Topsides to be Figure 10d - Number of Substructures to be Figure 10f - Average Forecast Topsides and
Decommissioned (2021-30) Decommissioned (2021-30) Substructure Removal Cost in the SNS & IS
(2021-30)
£16,000
17 Total
Total
16 CNS 16
CNS £14,000
15 NNS & WoS
NNS & WoS SNS & IS
14 14 14 14
SNS & IS
5 5 Average = £3,033
£4,000
4 4 4 Median = £3,368
Average = £2,020 Average = £2,296
3 3 3 3
Median = £2,433 Median = £2,596
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 £2,000
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 £0
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2019 2020 2021
Source: OGA & OGUK Source: OGA & OGUK Source: OGA & OGUK
3
https://www.thecrownestate.co.uk/media/3792/offshore-wind-operational-report-1.pdf
250
200
150
over the next decade
100
50
0
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Source: OGA & OGUK
Figure 11b – Subsea Structure Removal Tonnage Figure 11c – Number of Mattresses Removed in the UKCS (2021-30)
30,000 in the UKCS (2021-30)
3,500
CNS
25,000 CNS
3,000 NNS&WoS
NNS&WoS SNS&IS
SNS&IS
20,000 2,500
Subsea Structure Removal (tonnes)
Quantity of Mattresses
2,000
15,000
1,500
10,000
1,000
5,000 500
0
0 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Source: OGA & OGUK
Source: OGA & OGUK
20 DECOMMISSIONING INSIGHT 2021
Subsea decommissioning expenditure sees slight reduction – This year’s insight report Subsea structure removal activity set to increase steadily over time – Around 2,000
looks in greater detail at the subsea infrastructure than in previous years. With 9 per tonnes of subsea structures are forecast to be removed between 2021 to 2023 rising
cent of the overall expenditure forecast to be spent on subsea decommissioning, this is steadily to over 11,000 tonnes in the middle of the decade. A spike is seen in removals
a key cost driver for the UK decommissioning industry. £1.531 billion is set to be spent in activity in 2030 as a few larger subsea structures are set to be decommissioned in the
a fluctuating profile over the next ten years, a reduction from the £1.622 billion forecast CNS. Decommissioning Insight 2020 forecast that just over 70,000 tonnes were forecast
in Decommissioning Insight 2020. to be removed but this has increased to almost 90,000 tonnes in this year’s report.
A game of two halves for North Sea substructure decommissioning – A steady workload
of substructure decommissioning is anticipated for the North Sea where between
20,000 and 40,000 tonnes are expected to be decommissioned between 2021 and 2025.
The activity then peaks in 2026, with a few large projects forecast to take place in the UK
and Norway. The workload in the latter half of the decade remains high at above 70,000
apart from 2028 where just under 50,000 tonnes are forecast to be decommissioned.
The Netherlands UK
160,000 140,000
UK
Denmark Norway
40,000 40,000
100
50 20,000 20,000
0 0
0
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Source: OGUK, OGA, NexStep, NOROG Source: OGUK, OGA, NexStep, NOROG Source: OGUK, OGA, NexStep, NOROG
30
OUT OF
SERVICE
Source: NOROG
OUT OF
SERVICE
60
Well
Decommissioning • 18 subsea wells 20
OUT OF
SERVICE
CessCon Decom took delivery of the DP3 and DP4 platforms from Spirit Energy’s
Figure 15 – Total Tonnage Coming Onshore Morecambe Bay development in the East Irish Sea in June 2021.
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Source: OGA & OGUK
www.oguk.org.uk/nstd
Each year UK operators provide the cost classification for each of their decommissioning Figure 16 – Cost Distribution by Estimate Quality
projects using the Association for the Advancement of Cost Engineering (AACE)
classifications. These seek to define the stage of each project and indicate the degree of
uncertainty in the estimates.
100% 0%
4% 3%
Class 4 or 5 estimates mean that the projects are in the early planning stages where the 4%
1%
4%
6%
2%
10% 12%
90% 4%
scope of work is still being defined and feasibility studies are being carried out. Class 5 4% 2%
3% 3%
8%
estimates have an expected accuracy range of -20 to +100 per cent. This range narrows 80% 20%
11%
3%
over time as more work is done to increase the understanding of the work involved. Class 15%
70%
2 estimates represent projects that are in the contracting stage with some activities 43%
already being executed. These have a higher degree of accuracy of between -5 and +20 60% 43%
per cent. 38%
50%
40%
The OGA has been working with industry to improve the reliability of costs estimates for 40%
72%
decommissioning projects within the Asset Stewardship submissions. Now, 73 per cent
30%
of the estimates are class 4 or better with 21 per cent being class 3 or better. This chart
46%
demonstrates a significant improvement in the accuracy of the estimates, after the OGA 20% 37% 36%
placed emphasis on it in 2017, but there is still room for improvement. 10%
27%
0%
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Decommissioning Decommissioning Decommissioning Decommissioning Decommissioning
Estimate Estimate Estimate Estimate Estimate
Class 5 Class 4 Class 3 Class 2 Class 1 Actuals Source: OGA
AACE Association for the Advancement of Cost Engineering In the case of offshore installations, derogation is related
A survey run by the OGA which creates a single source to leaving a structure wholly or partially in place as an
Derogation
Asset Stewardship of robust data. It is used to inform stewardship reviews exemption to the OSPAR convention which generally
Survey and provide meaningful insights into current and forecast prohibits disposal of waste at sea.
activity in the UKCS.
CCUS Carbon Capture Utilisation and Storage DIT Department for International Trade
CGBS Concrete gravity-based structure
CNS Central North Sea
EBN Energie Beheer Nederland
Used to compare options, examine differences and
Comparative E&A Exploration and appraisal
identify the ‘most preferred’ option in the development of
Assessment
decommissioning programmes for:
FPSO Floating production, storage and offload vessel
CoP Cessation of production
HSE Health & Safety Executive
The 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference,
‘Making safe’ of facilities includes cleaning, freeing
COP26 more commonly referred to as COP26, was the 26th United
equipment of hydrocarbons, disconnection and physical
Nations Climate Change conference
isolation, and waste management. ‘Making safe’ of
Making safe pipelines involves depressurising them and removing any
The Petroleum Act 1998 requires owners to set out the
hydrocarbons. Then the pipelines are cleaned and purged,
measures to decommission disused installations and/or
in line with the cleaning programme based on the specific
pipelines in a decommissioning programme.
Decommissioning needs of the system.
A decommissioning programme must identify all the items
Programme
of equipment, infrastructure and materials that have been A structure laid over or under a pipeline to provide
installed and describe the decommissioning solution for Mattresses
protection, stabilisation or structural integrity.
each.
IS Irish Sea
Northern North Sea & West Central North Sea Southern North Sea Total UKCS
of Shetland and Irish Sea
Platform Wells 275 325 483 1.083
info@oguk.org.uk OGUK
© 2021 The UK Oil and Gas Industry Association Limited, trading as OGUK