Chugging Along: Reliance Industries
Chugging Along: Reliance Industries
Chugging Along: Reliance Industries
Rating Upside
BUY (■) 14.5 %
Change in Estimates
We expect RIL to continue its steady performance, supported by petchem, while the
refinery segment should be driven by the upcoming petcoke gasification project and likely EPS Chg FY19E/FY20E (%) (10)/(1)
GRM push from IMO norms, potentially from next fiscal. Target Price change (%) (1)
We estimate largely flat consol. EBITDA/PAT qoq in Q2FY19. While we expect refining Target Period (Months) 12
earnings to be impacted, building 7% lower GRM qoq at US$9.8/bbl, partially offset by a Previous Reco BUY
weaker rupee, petchem would be stable with upside risk from Nagothane ethane Emkay vs Consensus
connectivity and higher volumes. Jio and Retail earnings should continue to grow. EPS Estimates
Current petchem margins are driven by strong PX/PTA spreads from tight supply and FY19E FY20E
steady demand scenario, which is able to offset the weakness in MEG and polymers. With Emkay 64.8 82.9
LNG prices at over US$10/mmbtu and petcoke prices under US$120/bbl, petcoke gasification Consensus 61.5 65.6
economics are favorable, and we estimate more than US$2/bbl of incremental EBITDA.
Mean Consensus TP (12M) Rs 1,242
Capex run-rate is a key monitorable, with Q1 figure of Rs333bn seemingly higher. While Stock Details
the depreciation of the rupee would add to it, we have built in over Rs1trn capex for FY19, Bloomberg Code RIL IN
which if lower would be a positive trigger. Reducing TP slightly to Rs1,290. Maintain Buy.
Face Value (Rs) 10
Shares outstanding (mn) 6,338
Integrated petchem model keeps overall margins stable: We note that while PP, PVC,
52 Week H/L 1,329 / 841
MEG and polyester margins witnessed some decline qoq in Q2FY19, the same was more
than offset by a jump in PX and PTA spread. Post October pricing, this trend continued as M Cap (Rs bn/USD bn) 7,141 / 96.94
PX/PTA went up further and despite the weakness in all other products. Intermediaries are Daily Avg Volume (nos.) 10,005,640
supported by tight supplies. RIL’s integrated model continues to protect its overall margins. Daily Avg Turnover (US$ mn) 160.6
Current LNG-petcoke prices imply favorable gasification economics: Current LNG Shareholding Pattern Jun '18
price of over US$10/mmbtu and petcoke price of US$110-120/mt paint a favorable picture
Promoters 46.2%
for the petcoke gasification project, which is soon expected to stabilize fully. We believe a
US$2/bbl incremental EBITDA is doable, which implies an earnings impact of Rs70bn+. FIIs 23.9%
Further, CY19 onward, the IMO impact is likely, with total GRM impact of US$2/bbl based DIIs 11.2%
on diesel forwards. Public and Others 18.7%
Jio and Retail to continue growing; capex run-rate remains a key factor: We expect Price Performance
Jio subscriber addition of 15% qoq at 248mn by Q2FY19-end and estimate EBITDA of
(%) 1M 3M 6M 12M
Rs35.6bn, up 13% qoq, Retail is also expected to maintain its growth momentum. While
Absolute (10) 4 21 29
the rupee’s depreciation is positive for operating earnings, some impact of higher interest
would be there besides the rise in capex. We have upped our capex estimate for FY19 to Rel. to Nifty (2) 10 21 24
Rs1tr+. Relative price chart
Maintain Buy with Rs1,290 target price: We cut our FY19 EBITDA/PAT by 5%/10%, 1325 Rs % 40
building the petcoke gasification impact from Q4 (earlier Q3) and slightly lowering our base 1230 30
GRM assumption besides taking higher interest from the depreciation of the rupee. 1135 20
However, our FY20 numbers remain intact although our SOTP valuation is slightly lower
1040 10
at Rs1,290 (Rs1,300) due to an upstream value adjustment and some increase in debt.
945 0
Maintain Buy.
850 -10
Financial Snapshot (Consolidated) Oct-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 Apr-18 Jun-18 Aug-18 Oct-18
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40 80
38.9
38 60 60.6
37.4 58.9
36 36.2 40
34.7 33.6
34 33.9 20
33.0
32 32.1 32.5
0 Oct-18
31.5
Q4FY18
Q2FY17
Q3FY17
Q4FY17
Q1FY18
Q2FY18
Q3FY18
Q1FY19
Q2FY19e
30.6
30
Oct-18
Q2FY17
Q3FY17
Q4FY17
Q1FY18
Q2FY18
Q3FY18
Q4FY18
Q1FY19
Q2FY19e
PP PE PVC
Source: Company, Emkay Research Source: Company, Emkay Research
40 31.7 22
20.7
36.9
27.1 18
20 15.2
14
0 10
Oct-18
Q2FY17
Q3FY17
Q4FY17
Q1FY18
Q2FY18
Q3FY18
Q4FY18
Q1FY19
Q2FY19e
Q1FY18
Q2FY17
Q3FY17
Q4FY17
Q2FY18
Q3FY18
Q4FY18
Q1FY19
Oct-18
Q2FY19e
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Q4FY18
Q2FY17
Q3FY17
Q4FY17
Q1FY18
Q2FY18
Q3FY18
Q1FY19
Q2FY19E
Q4FY17
Q2FY19E
Q1FY18
Q2FY18
Q3FY18
Q4FY18
Q1FY19
Retail EBIT (Rs mn)
Jio EBITDA (Rs bn) Jio Subscribers (mn)
Source: Company, Emkay Research Source: Company, Emkay Research
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Balance Sheet
Y/E Mar (Rs mn) FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E
Equity share capital 29,480 29,590 59,220 59,309 59,398
Reserves & surplus 2,286,080 2,607,500 2,875,840 3,199,807 3,608,059
Net worth 2,315,560 2,637,090 2,935,060 3,259,116 3,667,457
Minority Interest 33,560 29,170 35,390 34,435 32,882
Loan Funds 1,962,240 2,257,630 2,475,150 3,456,721 3,638,327
Net deferred tax liability 204,940 211,980 245,430 278,560 312,352
Total Liabilities 4,516,300 5,135,870 5,691,030 7,028,832 7,651,018
Net block 1,849,100 1,985,260 4,038,850 5,798,620 6,310,696
Investment 840,150 828,990 828,620 765,965 716,598
Current Assets 1,013,750 1,005,400 1,375,040 2,094,268 2,430,081
Cash & bank balance 110,280 30,230 42,550 51,983 179,991
Other Current Assets 61,170 85,350 84,480 129,481 142,656
Current liabilities & Provision 1,473,670 1,932,150 2,421,700 2,565,131 2,750,818
Net current assets (459,920) (926,750) (1,046,660) (470,863) (320,737)
Misc. exp 0 0 0 0 0
Total Assets 4,516,300 5,135,870 5,691,030 7,028,832 7,651,018
Cash Flow
Y/E Mar (Rs mn) FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E
PBT (Ex-Other income) (NI+Dep) 264,480 306,990 394,180 470,913 621,988
Other Non-Cash items (28,170) (20,240) (14,110) 0 0
Chg in working cap 570,590 393,820 165,680 (533,234) 11,673
Operating Cashflow 381,340 495,500 714,590 132,986 867,025
Capital expenditure (1,022,520) (1,214,020) (842,500) (1,031,774) (763,629)
Free Cash Flow (641,180) (718,520) (127,910) (898,788) 103,396
Investments (75,500) 11,160 370 62,655 49,367
Other Investing Cash Flow 661,330 445,510 70,610 0 0
Investing Cashflow (361,900) (662,920) (682,900) (891,679) (635,267)
Equity Capital Raised 50 110 29,630 89 89
Loans Taken / (Repaid) 262,860 295,390 217,520 981,571 181,606
Dividend paid (incl tax) (72,590) (530) (39,160) (59,880) (82,436)
Other Financing Cash Flow (185,510) (170,310) (147,480) (2,663) (3,295)
Financing Cashflow (32,100) 86,170 (20,010) 768,126 (103,750)
Net chg in cash (12,660) (81,250) 11,680 9,433 128,008
Opening cash position 125,450 110,280 30,230 42,550 51,983
Closing cash position 110,280 30,230 42,550 51,983 179,991
Source: Company, Emkay Research
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Key Ratios
Profitability (%) FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E
EBITDA Margin 15.2 15.1 16.4 13.8 16.1
EBIT Margin 11.0 11.3 12.1 10.4 12.4
Effective Tax Rate 26.2 25.4 27.6 30.0 30.0
Net Margin 9.1 9.8 8.9 6.4 7.4
ROCE 8.8 9.1 10.4 11.0 12.3
ROE 11.1 12.1 12.5 12.4 14.2
RoIC 21.8 29.9 23.9 15.1 14.8
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9-Apr-17
6-Apr-18
7-Oct-17
4-Oct-18
12-Apr-16
14-Oct-15
10-Oct-16
21-Sep-17 841 843 12m Hold Dhaval Joshi
21-Jul-17 793 759 12m Buy Dhaval Joshi
25-Apr-17 716 759 12m Buy Dhaval Joshi Source: Bloomberg, Company, Emkay Research
19-Apr-17 684 759 12m Buy Dhaval Joshi
17-Jan-17 521 580 12m Buy Dhaval Joshi
21-Oct-16 532 580 12m Buy Dhaval Joshi
18-Jul-16 503 580 12m Buy Dhaval Joshi
2-Jun-16 478 580 12m Buy Dhaval Joshi
23-Apr-16 519 580 12m Buy Dhaval Joshi
20-Jan-16 502 570 12m Buy Dhaval Joshi
26-Nov-15 494 570 12m Buy Dhaval Joshi
19-Oct-15 482 570 12m Buy Dhaval Joshi
Source: Company, Emkay Research
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Sources for all charts and tables are Emkay Research unless otherwise specified.
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