Risk Matrix Table:
Neglible
Slight
Moderate
Serious
Very serious
Health and safety: -
No absence from work
Minor first aid required
Injury leading to lost time
Possible permanent disability,
possible fatality
Environment: -
No significant impact. Easily
controlled on worksite
Short term effect on site,
controlled on worksite
Local pollution, may have
lasting effect on worksite
Major uncontrolled release
Pollution extending beyond
extending well beyond worksite.
worksite, effects for more than 6
Serious pollution for more than
months
12 months
Operations: -
Short or no delay in operations. Minor delay in operations. Minor Operation delayed/Degraded.
Trivial asset damage
asset damage.
Moderate asset damage.
Operational failure. Critical
asset damage.
Severity
3
10
12
15
12
16
20
10
15
20
25
Low
High
Low
Extremely
Improbable
Operational failure. Serious
asset damage.
One or more fatalities
1
'
An accident could only
occur under freak conditions
Improbable
2
Possible
The accident may occur if an additional event
takes place.
Probability
An accident might occur if other factors were
present but the risk is minimal.
Probable
4
The accident could be precipitated by wind,
vessel movement, vibration or human
carelessness.
If work continues there will almost certainly be
an accident
High
Highly probable
5
Risk Priority Numbers aka. "RPN"
Failure Detection
Probability value
This value is based on the "ease" of detection of a failure. The number of Levels is 5,
1 = easy detection / failure is obvious,
5 = unlikely to detect before operational use or fails in service without warning.
i.e. n = 1 to 5.
Certain
or Very High
Obvious failure - visually obvious, easy to notice,
housing etc.)
High
Audio or visual alarm
different Detection Probability value to the item which it is protecting)
Medium
Failure identified only by human monitoring / inspection
extinguisher in red zone, engine oil levels)
Low
Failure apparent only through secondary indications.
failure identified by rising CO2 levels)
Very low
Failure of emergency/backup system during operation or failure apparent only when it causes other systems fail
(eg chamber flow fuse fails to operate after external pipework failure)
(e.g. not concealed within a
(Note: the alarm may have a
(eg gauge in fire
(eg scrubber
Use to the "Failure Detection Probability" value (n=1 to 5) calculate the Risk Priority Number "RPN" for an Item
RPN = Severity x Probability x Detection Probability
the possible RPN range is 1 to 125
e.g. Severity = 4, Probability = 1 and the Detection Probability = 5 (i.e. very low chance of detection)
RPN = 4 x 1 x 5 = 20. Notice the Risk Matrix score is 4 (Low Risk) nothing needs to be considered. But!...?
Calculating an RPN can assist in decision making as to where remedial action needs to be concentrated first
resources, Time, Manpower, Capital etc.)
(i.e. the most efficient allocation of
A high RPN ranking will also be an strong indication that changes are required to the SOP, PMS and critical spares compliment on the system.
Absolute Evaluation Method - Risk Index Work Sheet.
Low
Severity Ratings:
Numerical Value:
Negligable
1
No absence from work
Health and Safety: No significant impact. Easily
controlled on worksite
Environment: -
Operations: -
Short or no delay in
operations. Trivial asset
damage
Low
Probability Ratings:
Numerical Value:
Extremely Improbable
1
An accident could only
occur under freak
conditions
Failure Detection
'
Probability Rating:
Numerical Value:
Note:
'This is an
Ranking -
High
Certain
1
Obvious failure - visually
"Inverse" obvious, easy to notice,
'
(e.g. not concealed within a
Easy
housing etc.)
Detection Probability = 1
'
Very Low Detection Probability =
5
Risk Index
Information:
RI <= 2.250 is
OK.
Select value of nMax.
Suggest nMax. = 5 or 10
Reject Solution, Situation
Unacceptable / Do not
Operate
Do Not Use! / Suspend Pending
Review / Advise Management
Restrict Use, Operate with
Extreme Caution if it is
necessary to continue
operations.
Operate with Caution
OK to Operate!
Acceptable Solution
OK! Acceptable for
Operations:
RI = < 1.000 is not a valid resul
n = 1 to 5
RI Value as % of nmax.
5.000
100.00%
2.875
62.50%
2.625
57.50%
2.375
52.50%
2.250
50.00%
1.750
40.00%
0.750
20.00%
1.000
0.00%
The Calculation of Risk Index (RI)
Risk
Index
Each element's score a, b and c is obtained from our understanding and expertise of the it
transformed in to the new synthetic evaluation index RI, which is a numerical value indicat
view point of control technology (and safety).
The Optimal RI
If we accept the optimal score of each element is 50% of the Max Score of n = 5, then the
exceed 2.5, the current control measures are considered to pass FMEA / FMECA assessmen
evaluation smoothly.
a=2.5, b=2.5, c=2.5 Which of course will provide an RI of 2.500 which in this evaluation w
Optimal RI value can be "tightened" up to a smaller number e.g. 2.000 or 2.250 if circumst
If operational requirements dictate a lower level of risk, the Optimal score can be recalcula
Optimum Risk Index value. If this is done and we are using a range of n = 1 to 5, any calc
between 2 and 5 requires further treatment, management or reengineering.
Changing the Optimal RI % of the applied range will (of course) require
The Necessity for Special Index and Formula to include "Detectability Probability
However, it is difficult for the case where the combination of a score is
a= 3, b= 3, c= 1 - Here we have 2 values which are relatively high and a low number, loo
result is 18 which again is looking high, however taking the cubed root of the product we h
Reducing our RI (Risk Index) back to a scale of n = 1 to 5 is considerably more manageable
expertise and knowledge in the 3 areas we are considering to produce a viable and reliable
The following formula will be obtained when this problem is dealt with using control techno
i.e. we are calculating the cube root of Probability x Severity x Detectio
formula is written as RI = POWER( (S * P * DP),1/3) e.g. using cell refe
You can substitute the element scores into this expression and get a synthetic evaluation s
The Reason for the Dimensional Return
The elements a, b, and c are one-dimensional values which show the necessity for measur
the necessity for measures, the three-dimensional value needs to be returned to a one-dim
(Probability x Severity x Detection Probability) as described above.
Discussion of the Reason for the one-dimensional value
The calculation of RI should not make an arithmetic average but a cubic average. This is be
Additionally, by performing this calculation (finding the cubed root of the product) the resu
and context as the original values. i.e. n = 1 to 5 in our case
Even if operational necessities dictated the requirement for n = 1 to 1
still remain in the context of n = 1 to 10 (if calculated as the cubed root of the product). A
score (5) as the Optimal RI value. (An RI of 4 could also be considered if circumstances dic
and need to be decided upon to fit the context in which they are being used, to create prac
outcomes while at the same time being represented in a simple and intuitive fashion so as
Return to top of Page.
dex Work Sheet.
following the work of Takaro Unuma. OLT Institute, Japan
Brief Discussion follows below!
Severity
Low
Slight
Moderate
High
Serious
Very serious
Minor first aid required
Injury leading to lost time
Possible permanent
disability, possible fatality
Short term effect on site,
controlled on worksite
Local pollution, may have
lasting effect on worksite
Pollution extending beyond Major uncontrolled release
worksite, effects for more
extending beyond worksit
than 6 months
Serious pollution for > tha
12 months
Minor delay in operations.
Minor asset damage.
Operation
delayed/Degraded.
Moderate asset damage.
Operational failure. Serious Operational failure. Critica
asset damage.
asset damage.
Probability
Low
High
Improbable
Possible
Probable
An accident might occur if
other factors were present
but the risk is minimal.
Highly Probable
An accident may occur if an The accident could easily If work continues there wi
additional event takes
be caused by environmental almost certainly be an
place.
conditions, platform
accident
instability, vibration or
human carelessness.
Detectability
High
One or more fatalities
High
Medium
Audio or visual alarm
Failure identified only by
(Note: the human monitoring /
alarm may have a different inspection
Detection Failure Probability
(e.g. gauge
value to the item which it is in fire extinguisher in red
protecting - This should also zone, engine oil levels)
be considered)
Low
Low
Very Low
Failure apparent only
Failure of a system or an
through secondary
emergency backup system
indications.
during operation with the
(e.g.
failure apparent only when
scrubber failure identified by causes other systems fail
rising CO2 levels)
(e.g.
chamber flow fuse fails to
operate after external
pipework failure)
Enter
Risk Index Calculator:
Risk Index
Optimum as a %
below
("Open" enter "P", "S" & "FDP")
Manual Entry !
where
"RI" = (Prob x Severity x Det. Prob.)1/3
45.0%
Range
< = 5.000 & >
Range 2.875
< = 2.875 & >
Range 2.625
Range
< = 2.625 & >
2.375
Range
< = 2.375 & >
2.250
FDP
2.5
OK to Operate!
Acceptable Solution
< = 2.250 & >
Range 1.750
< = 1.750 & >
1.000
Return to top of Page.
Hyperlink to Systems & Sub-Systems:
following the work of Takaro Unuma. OLT Institute, Japan
ref. http://www.geocities.jp/takaro_u/fmea_eng.html#c6-5
erstanding and expertise of the item of equipment or the process we are studying, these scores are
which is a numerical value indicating the degree of lack (i.e., additional need) of control measures f
the Max Score of n = 5, then the Optimal RI is 2.5. When each element obtains the score which do
to pass FMEA / FMECA assessment. For example, the failure mode that obtains the score shown bel
of 2.500 which in this evaluation we are considering to be optimal.
ber e.g. 2.000 or 2.250 if circumstances required this.
he Optimal score can be recalculated to 40% (for example) of the Max Score of "n MAX", this will lowe
ng a range of n = 1 to 5, any calculated RI between 1 and 2 will be considered to be acceptable an
nt or reengineering.
plied range will (of course) require recalculating of the "Risk Index Information" column as shown ab
lude "Detectability Probability" into the evaluation.
n of a score is
atively high and a low number, looking at them makes subjective judgement difficult, multiplied toge
he cubed root of the product we have a result of 2.080 which is < 2.5 and there for an acceptable v
is considerably more manageable than working on a scale of n = 1 to 125 (5x5x5) and requires mu
ng to produce a viable and reliable answer.
is dealt with using control technology.
of Probability x Severity x Detection Probability.
S * P * DP),1/3) e.g. using cell references "POWER((G21*H21*I21),1/3))" )
n and get a synthetic evaluation score, based on the next reasons.
ch show the necessity for measures. In order similarly for RI to serve as a one-dimensional value wh
needs to be returned to a one-dimensional value. We achieve this by taking the Cubed Root of the
ed above.
age but a cubic average. This is because each score a, b, and c have a mutually different meaning.
ubed root of the product) the resulting answer remains a meaningful and practical number in the sa
case
ated the requirement for n = 1 to 10 for probability, Severity & Detectability, the resultant RI value w
the cubed root of the product). Additionally, it would be practical to select the median value of eac
be considered if circumstances dictated tightening up the criteria, remember all these values are su
hey are being used, to create practical, efficient and economic solutions, which will produce optima
simple and intuitive fashion so as not to confuse management.)
ref. http://www.geocities.jp/takaro_u/fmea_eng.html#c6-5
Enter
Values
y serious
e or more fatalities
Selecte
d
w!
SH&S =
3
or uncontrolled release
ending beyond worksite.
ious pollution for > than
months
Risk Index Calculator:
where "RI" = (Prob x Severity x Det. Prob.)
FDP
SE =
2.3
erational failure. Critical
et damage.
SO =
1
Operate with Caution
Risk Index Info Table:
hly Probable
ork continues there will
ost certainly be an
ident
P=
y Low
ure of a system or an
ergency backup system
ng operation with the
ure apparent only when it
ses other systems fail
(e.g.
mber flow fuse fails to
rate after external
ework failure)
FDP =
Risk Index Calculator:
(Linked to and duplicating the
calculator above)
x Det. Prob.)
1/3
where
"RI" = (Prob x Severity x Det. Prob.)1/3
RI
FDP
RI
2.466
2.621
olution
g, these scores are
control measures from the
Operate with Caution
he score which does not
e score shown below passes
The
", this will lower the
o be acceptable and anything
MAX
olumn as shown above.
ult, multiplied together the
or an acceptable value.
5) and requires much less
(the excel
mensional value which shows
Cubed Root of the product of
ifferent meaning.
l number in the same range
esultant RI value would then
edian value of each max
hese values are subjective
ill produce optimal safety
g.html#c6-5
erity x Det. Prob.)1/3
RI
2.621
Caution
General Guidance:
http://www.weibull.com/basics/fmea_fig1.htm
commonly used format: (conventional)
Use Top-down Analysis on already-known processes
Use Bottom-up analysis for R&D, Product Development and Procedureal Design
sed format: (conventional)
Abbreviations
ABS
ASME
AODC
BIBS
CO2
CO
DDC
RCL
DESIGN
ECU
FMEA
FMECA
FSW
HeO2
HP
H2S
HLB
ID
IMCA
IOGP
LARS
LSP
LR
LP
MSW
Nitrox
OD
O2
P & ID
PMS
Sat.
PVHO
RPN
SWL
SPF
SWR
SDC
TUP
TUPC
American Bureau of Shipping
American Society of Mechanical Engineers
Association of Offshore Diving Contractors
Built In Breathing System
Carbon Dioxide
Carbon Monoxide
Deck Decompression Chamber
Divers Reclaim
Diving Equipment Systems Inspection Guidance Note (IMCA DESIGN)
Environmental Control Unit
Failure Modes and Effects Analysis
Failure Modes and Effects Criticality Analysis
Feet of Seawater
Helium & Oxygen Mixed Gas
High Pressure
Hydrogen Sulphide Gas.
Hyperbaric Life Boat
Internal Diameter
International Marne Contractors Association
International Oil and Gas Producers
Launch and Recovery System
Life Support Package
Lloyds Register
Low Pressure
Meters Sea Water
Nitrogen & Oxygen Mixed Gas
Outside Diameter
Oxygen
Piping and Instrumentation Diagram
Planned Maintenance System
Prefix used for Saturation
Pressure Vessel for Human Occupancy
Risk Priority Number (Probability x Severity x Detection Probability (before failure))
Safe Working Load
Single Point Failure
Steel Wire Rope
Submersible Decompression Chamber aka. Diving Bell
Transfer Under Pressure
Transfer Under Pressure Chamber.
