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Linear regression Essay
Nicholas Grubbs
Since the population in the world is growing and it is in every interest to make sure that this world stays safe. So I decided I would create a scatter plot based on criminal activity in the U.S compared to how the population grows. According to the data I collected we have nearly 13 million crimes a year. That is a rough average to the twenty years of my data. I wanted to see how our crime was twenty years ago compared to now. Would the crime rate have gone down or up? How would the population increase effect how much crime was committed? These are important questions for anyone currently living in the United States. It started with the year 1985 the population was near 238 million and the crime was near 12 million and as the years went by as the population increased so did the crime. Both crime and population crawled slowly up as the rest of the 80s went by. Then in 1991 after six years the crime rate started dropping and the population kept on growing. The crime rate dropped steadily until 1997 when the drop became more apparent. In 2000 the crime rate slowed and in 2001 the crime rate started very slowly upwards. That is where the data stopped. I can already tell by the scatterplot that there is not a good correlation in the linear function. The r value tells me what that correlation is. The closer it is to 1 the more linear it is. The closer it is to -1 the more negative linear it is. My r value is -.718 which is not as bad as I thought because the graph is not good at all. This tells me it has a negative correlation that is not near perfect but it is not horrible.
The linear equation for my data is y=-.046x=25154039.03. By this I can say that my equation is very squat. It is long and narrow. For example, it is saying that if there is 100 people in the world then there will be 2515034 crimes. This is pretty much impossible. It is also saying that if there is 200 people in the world then there will be 2515029 crimes. 100 more people only has a 5 crime difference. But if there is 300,000,000 people in the world then there will be 11354039 crimes. So the linear equation cannot help with showing the trend in crime perfectly. And because the accuracy (r-value) is very off, it isnt the most accurate way. For the most part people who work in a police force or in the government like the CIA or FBI would be most interested in this data. They would use the data to see what they need to work on in terms of area the crime is high. They would see how they have improved the system in the long run. Those are the people who would most likely be looking at this data. It is very important that the people who keep our streets safe know how they have done each year. Without these people our country would be out of control. In conclusion my data shows that the crime rate is going down. It was been fluctuating and shows that it has its highs and lows but for the most part our streets are getting safer. There is still a lot of crime. I did not know how much crime is committed every year but as everyone would be, it is happy to know that there is going to be little and little crime every year according to my data.
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