Against the background of the recent migratory crisis in Europe, this Delmi report aims at examining and taking stock of the Common European Asylum System (CEAS). It asks what has been achieved and what has failed, focusing on two of the...
moreAgainst the background of the recent migratory crisis in Europe, this Delmi report aims at examining and taking stock of the Common European Asylum System (CEAS). It asks what has been achieved and what has failed, focusing on two of the most pressing challenges: (1) the unequal distribution of asylum seekers across the EU Member States and the search for a more equitable sharing of responsibilities;
and (2) the wide variations regarding Member States’ decision-making practices on asylum applications and the need to achieve more harmonised recognition rates. We label these two aspects “solidarity” (regarding equitable responsibilitysharing) and “fairness” (regarding the approximation of asylum decisions).
The first empirical part of the study explores a number of proposals regarding responsibility-sharing for asylum seekers among the EU Member States, which have been brought up by policy-makers and researchers. The study focuses on the variations in dispersal effects of four different distribution keys for asylum seekers and discusses their appropriateness. Four different keys and their respective advantages and drawbacks are analysed with regard to their allocation criteria,
such as Member States’ population size, economic power, or territory. The authors also look into the de facto number of asylum seekers that the Member States have received in recent years and contrast these numbers to hypothetical fair quotas. The results show that some Member States have overperformed with regard to the number of asylum seekers they admitted, due to their geographical location within
the EU or other factors, whereas others have remained far below a fair share.
The second part asks whether there has been a trend towards increased convergence regarding Member States’ asylum decisions – which we might expect given the fact that the EU has worked towards an approximation for many years. It turns out, however, that while an overall trend towards higher protection rates can be identified, not least due to the increased numbers of asylum seekers from war-ridden countries such as Syria, Member States have made very little progress
regarding more harmonised decisions. Analysing national recognition rates for selected countries of origin (Syria, Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan and Kosovo), the authors find that a measurable approximation of national asylum outcomes has not been achieved. Extreme variations have persisted over many years, especially in the cases of Afghanistan and Iraq. In 2016, the chances for an asylum seeker from Iraq to receive protection in Hungary and the United Kingdom was below 13 percent,
compared to 100 percent in Spain and Slovakia. The case of Afghanistan is even more outstanding, with protection rates in 2016 oscillating between 1.7 percent and 97 percent.
Responsibility-sharing and harmonised asylum outcomes are key interdependent factors for the functioning of a Common European Asylum System. First and foremost, an approximation of asylum decisions is a precondition for a successful responsibility-sharing system as it would be unfair to allocate asylum seekers to a Member State where they would have very little chance to receive protection, if
the likelihood of protection would be much greater in another Member State. Vice versa, a fair mandatory distribution of asylum seekers would encourage national governments to abide by the common standards and not use restrictive asylum practices as a method to reduce their attractiveness as countries of destination.
Further to responsibility-sharing and the approximation of decision-making on asylum, the study briefly looks into other factors that also need to be taken forward to achieve a truly Common European Asylum System, such as greater harmonisation and cooperation regarding reception arrangements for asylum seekers and procedural
standards, and a stronger role for the current European Asylum Support Office (EASO). The authors also address the long-standing and fundamental dilemma that asylum applications can only be lodged from within the territory of a Member State or at its borders while it is, at the same time, illegal for most protection seekers to actually get there. The study argues that resettlement and humanitarian admission programmes need to be expanded, and that more legal pathways to protection in Europe should be opened.
Finally, the report presents some concrete ideas for working towards more harmonised asylum outcomes and a workable responsibility-sharing system. On asylum decision-making, the authors propose an enhanced role for a future EU asylum agency, which would include a “fire brigade” function to identify, analyse and mitigate situations in which Member States’ asylum recognition rates for applicants from specific countries of origin differ too strongly. The study also proposes “joint processing” exercises, where officials from several Member States examine and decide asylum applications lodged by nationals of a specific country together. The study presents four main future scenarios for policy-makers to contemplate. These scenarios include (1) the status quo, the continuation of the currently used
Dublin system including its responsibility-allocation criteria; (2) a “Dublin plus” scenario, in which the Dublin rules would be complemented by a new, quota-based corrective allocation mechanism; (3) a new quota-based allocation system that would replace the current Dublin criteria; and (4) finally a “free choice” system in which asylum seekers would be free to choose their country of destination.
In the context of these scenarios or policy options, the study also discusses ideas regarding transition periods for “skeptical” Member States, options to move money instead of people by allowing Member States to ransom themselves, and the importance of intra-EU freedom of movement rights for those asylum-seekers who are granted protection. The authors argue that in the long run, a quota-based system in accordance with scenario number three appears to be the most coherent course of action, though this seems politically difficult to achieve and demands a high level of ambition from EU and national policy-makers.
While the report is written from a European perspective and designed to be of relevance for all Member States, a special focus is applied on Sweden. The authors clarify, for example, what the effects of a fair distribution key for asylum seekers would be regarding the number of asylum applicants to be received in Sweden, and how Sweden positions itself regarding the extent to which asylum seekers from specific countries of origin are granted positive decisions. While Sweden has by far exceeded the quantitative responsibility for asylum seekers that it would have in relation to its population size and its economic power during the period 2008-2015, it suddenly underperformed in 2016 as the number of incoming asylum seekers plunged following the introduction of a number of restrictive measures.
Regarding asylum decisions, Sweden’s practices have often been roughly in line with the EU average, meaning that they did not massively deviate from the mainstream EU approach to specific countries of origin. However, regarding two very significant countries of origin, the authors found interesting variations. Concerning Iraqi nationals, Sweden has been more restrictive than the rest of the EU over the entire period of analysis from 2008 to 2016. While it had a comparatively generous
approach towards asylum seekers from Afghanistan, it was significantly stricter than the EU mainstream in 2015 and 2016.