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The results of the parliamentary elections (February, 2019) held in Moldova kept intact the necessity of forming a coalition between the intra-parliamentary parties so that the country could be governed. The impossibility of obtaining a majority by the Socialists, preservation of the political weight of the Democrats and eruption of the unified extraparliamentary opposition generated a difficult, but predictable situation.
SSRN Electronic Journal
The Parliamentary Elections of 24th February, 2019 in the Republic of Moldova: Particularities and Consequences of the Mixed Electoral SystemHighlights • Ruling pro-European parties and long-established Communist Party lost significantly. • Moldova's Socialist Party were the biggest winner. • The elections concern more than ethnic and geopolitical cleavages. • Endemic corruption is harming established parties' reputation and electability. • Moldova's elections demonstrate continued electoral and institutional volatility.
Almost nine months before the future parliamentary elections that are expected to take place in December 2018, there is no clarity as to the profile of the future government – the political forces that associate themselves with the European course or those that incline towards the Eurasian direction.
2021 •
As the parliamentary election approaches in Moldova, political rivalry between pro-Russian and pro-European parties enters a more complicated phase. Each side tries to convince Moldovan people to follow its arguments in the developing country’s political and economic fulcrum and blames the opposite side to be a puppet of Europe or Russia. After 2020 Harvard-educated technocrat Maia Sandu’s triumph in the presidential election pro-European forces took control and strengthened their position both in the Moldovan community and administration. She gained the upper hand over Russia-oriented President Igor Dodon, with her core electorate of rural voters with educated urban voters, the young and the Moldovan diaspora in Europe. Sandu prevailed over Dodon in all of the central districts in the countryside by large margins. She even received a substantial share of the “Russian-speaking” vote in Chisinau. Regardless of the growing popularity of European ideas among people, the key governmental institution was/is under control of the pro-socialist Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova (PSRM) led by Dodon with 37 of 101 seats.
The Moldovan political class enters a new phase after the presidential elections. There is a significant dose of uncertainty as regards the country's European trajectory. The new political context makes the local political players to regroup, pursuing the political objective of conquering the legislative body by the parliamentary elections of 2018. Meanwhile, the European partners (European Union and the member states) look at Moldova with a series of expectations as well as with particular fear.
In November 2018, the mandate of the current Parliament of Moldova comes to an end and the legislative elections will most probably be held in December. The political forces that control one or several branches of the state power, the Democrats and the Socialists, adjust their efforts and tactics that were launched in the period of the presidential elections of 2016. These bank, first and foremost, on the geopolitical substance and the mobilization of citizens around fears related to (semi)real internal or external aggression. At the other pole, the extraparliamentary opposition led by Maia Sandu and Andrei Nastase capitalize on the image following the confrontation with the government, based on active communication with the foreign partners and, more recently, on their participation in the local mayoral elections in Chisinau. The rest of the political parties have slim electoral chances. These can enter Parliament only if they win in single-member constituencies.
Moldova is an important part of the intricate regional situation in the Black Sea region. Redefining Russia’s role by the states of the region, created the prerequisites for bringing together the positions of Ukraine and Moldova on a whole range of issues, also it led to the resetting of Ukrainian-Romanian relations. Regional transformation was the basis that united the tripartite platform of cooperation - Ukraine, Republic of Moldova and Romania. The parliamentary elections in the Republic of Moldova, which will take place in 2019, will largely determine new challenges and opportunities for this format of cooperation.
Moldova’s dialogue with the EU remains afloat, even if it is seriously affected by the unpredictability, incoherence and negligence of the central authorities towards the agreements reached with the foreign partners. The decay of the bilateral relations started after the invalidation of the Chisinau early mayoral elections, where the extraparliamentary opposition managed to impose itself before the stratagems of the government headed by the Democratic Party. The PDM’s efficient monopoly on all the powers in the state distorts yet the Moldovan democracy’s capacity to regulate itself and considerably disadvantages the new political parties that tend to penetrate the political system through the agency of elections. Their non-reintegration into the national political landscape is permanently hampered by the ruling party – in November 2016 by facilitating the victory of Igor Dodon against Maia Sandu, while in June 2018 by annulling the elections in Chisinau.
The Moldovan authorities fulfilled all the procedures for invalidating the Chisinau early mayoral elections that were won by the representative of the extraparliamentary opposition Andrei Nastase. The final point, at procedural level, was the decision by the Central Election Commission by which the elections were nullified (June 29, 2018). Consequently, Moldova’s capital city remained without a mayor with a full term in office until the ordinary local elections of the first half of 2019. About 240,000 votes (approximately 40% of the voters in Chisinau) and 14 million lei spent on the elections held in two rounds were wasted. The invalidation of elections repeatedly highlighted the massive distrust in the integrity of the judicial system that is accused of incompetence, political servilism and, respectively, political corruption. The created situation amplified the internal criticism (opposition, civil society) and external distrust in the government that continues to associate itself with the West, and generated new political opportunities for revitalizing the extraparliamentary opposition.
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