Books by Marcelo Olarreaga
Mucha de la controversia durante los días previos a la reunión de Seattle (1999) tuvo que ver con... more Mucha de la controversia durante los días previos a la reunión de Seattle (1999) tuvo que ver con diferentes aspectos de lo que ha sido llamada la “nueva” agenda comercial. Este término ha sido utilizado para describir esfuerzos de los miembros de la OMC para negociar reglas acerca de las políticas regulatorias nacionales con efectos sobre la competencia en los mercados. Un cierto número de los acuerdos negociados en la Ronda Uruguay se ocupa de esos temas, que incluyen la liberalización del comercio en servicios y los requerimientos para proteger la propiedad intelectual. Otras áreas que han sido propuestas para el establecimiento de reglas multilaterales incluyen la legislación sobre competencia, la política de inversión extranjera, las compras estatales y los estándares ambientales y laborales. Una de las preguntas sustantivas que surgieron en Seattle fue la de si el sistema comercial debería expandirse para cubrir dichas áreas.
Las contribuciones de este libro evalúan los méritos de desarrollar disciplinas multilaterales en varios de los temas de la “nueva” agenda comercial, tomando la perspectiva de un país en desarrollo. Uno de los principales mensajes que surgen es que los esfuerzos para introducir reglas sustantivas acerca de los regímenes legales y regulatorios nacionales, pueden ir en detrimento de los países en desarrollo, especialmente si dichos esfuerzos implican una armonización con los estándares de las naciones de altos ingresos. En cambio, sería más fructífero concentrarse en disciplinas procedimentales que apuntan a asegurar la transparencia de las políticas.
Otro mensaje que surge es que son considerables los beneficios potenciales de perseguir una agenda más tradicional de acceso a mercados, enfocada hacia la reducción de las barreras al comercio en bienes y servicios. Esto sugiere que, desde la perspectiva del desarrollo económico, los esfuerzos futuros de negociación deberían centrarse primariamente en reducir las barreras al comercio en agricultura, servicios y manufacturas intensivas en mano de obra tales como las confecciones.
Papers by Marcelo Olarreaga
Social Science Research Network, 2021
The paper examines the impact of export promotion on aggregate unemployment. We find that increas... more The paper examines the impact of export promotion on aggregate unemployment. We find that increases in the share of Export Promotion Agencies' (EPAs) budgets on total exports lead to small decreases in aggregate unemployment. This effect is amplified when export promotion efforts are concentrated in sectors in which the country has a comparative advantage. On the other hand, when EPAs aim at reducing aggregate unemployment by focusing their efforts in sectors with high levels of unemployment, then aggregate unemployment increases. These results suggest that even if EPAs' priorities were to shift towards reducing unemployment, this would be better addressed by focusing on sectors in which the country has a comparative advantage rather than sectors with high labor market frictions.
WTO Working papers, Sep 1, 1998
This paper quantifies the extent of preferential trade as a share of total world trade in differe... more This paper quantifies the extent of preferential trade as a share of total world trade in different regions of the world and for two periods. Results show that: i) preferential trade represented 40% of world trade in the period 1988-1992 and it slightly increased to 42% during the period 1993-1997; ii) during the second period, agricultural products generally benefited more from the existence of preferential trade agreements than industrial products (maybe due to GATT-exemption); iii) the regional distribution of preferential trade is relatively uneven with a significant share of preferential trade in Western Europe (around 70 per cent), relatively low values in the Western Hemisphere (around 25 per cent), very low shares in Asia and Oceania (around 4 per cent) and average values in the rest-of-the-world (Eastern Europe and Africa); iv) the largest increase in shares of preferential trade between the two periods has occurred in the Western Hemisphere and in Eastern-Europe and Africa; v) at the country level there is an inverted-u-shape relationship between the share of preferential trade and the size and GDP per capita of individual countries; vi) countries which are highly open to trade tend to have a larger share of preferential trade on total trade in the period 1993-1997, suggesting that preferential and non-preferential trade can be seen as complements. * We are indebted to Sanoussi Bilal, Patrick Low and Jaime de Melo for helpful comments. We are also grateful to Mariana Gagliardi and Daniel Morales from SISD-WTO for providing us with information on existing preferential trade agreements and to Philip Rauh for patient help with data collection. All errors are ours. The views expressed here are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the institutions with which they are associated.
Revista de Economía y Estadística, Dec 1, 2013
This paper proposes a new method to test the Grossman-Helpman model of endogenous protection and ... more This paper proposes a new method to test the Grossman-Helpman model of endogenous protection and lobby formation, which does not require data on lobby formation or contributions. It identifi es politically organized industries using commonly available trade and production data, as well as the model's structural parameter estimates. Applied to India, it yields results that are qualitatively consistent with the model's predictions and that seem quantitatively more plausible than estimates given for the US by alternative methods. Our estimates imply that the weight put by the Indian government on contributions by politically organized sectors is a third of the weight it puts on (gross) social welfare, well above existing estimates for the United States.
Policy making power enables governments to redistribute income to powerful interests in society. ... more Policy making power enables governments to redistribute income to powerful interests in society. However, some governments exhibit greater concern for aggregate welfare than others. This government behavior may itself be endogenously determined by a number of economic, political and institutional factors. Trade policy, being fundamentally redistributive, provides a valuable context in which the welfare mindedness of governments may be empirically evaluated. This paper investigates quantitatively the welfare mindedness of governments and attempts to understand these political and institutional determinants of the differences in government behavior across countries.
The World Bank eBooks, Nov 30, 1999
Exporters' performance in a particular market may affect Social and ethnic networks seem to reinf... more Exporters' performance in a particular market may affect Social and ethnic networks seem to reinforce these their future exports to the rest of the world. Importers information spillovers, especially in developing countries, may base their future transaction decisions on the where they appear to be geographically more information revealed by exporters' past performance in concentrated. The exception is China and to some extent other countries. Similarly, exporters acquire valuable Hong Kong, probably reflecting a geographically more information on foreign consumer tastes, product diversified migration pattern. standards, or customs administration that may profitably The exchange of information among current and be used in future transactions with other countries. potential export markets can significantly affect a Nicita and Olarreaga estimate the effects of these developing country's export performance. Bilateral information spillovers across markets on the export information spillovers across markets are negligible or patterns of four developing countries (Egypt, the nonexistent for exports from the United States, where Republic of Korea, Malaysia, and Tunisia). A dollar there is less need to create a reputation in international increase in exports to the United States generates on markets. Similarly, Egypt's good export performance average an extra 2 to 14 cents of exports to the rest of would be more easily noticed in Argentina or India the world in the next period. (where the market is small) than would increased exports to France or the United States. This paper-a product of Trade, Development Research Group-is part of a larger effort in the group to understand the role of information in developing countries' integration into world markets. Copies of the paper are available free from the
Aussenwirtschaft, 2019
Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch ge... more Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your personal and scholarly purposes. You are not to copy documents for public or commercial purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. If the documents have been made available under an Open Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence.
Reflets et perspectives de la vie économique, 2002
Une proposition pour l'OMC : La « super » clause de nation plus favorisée », Reflets et perspecti... more Une proposition pour l'OMC : La « super » clause de nation plus favorisée », Reflets et perspectives de la vie économique 2002/2 (Tome XLI), p. 81-90.
Middle East Development Journal, 2011
The literature on trade often focuses on its impact on economic growth. However, more recently at... more The literature on trade often focuses on its impact on economic growth. However, more recently attention has been paid to the impact of openness on other important aspects of individual welfare, such as the environment. Because openness affects economic activity it will also affect pollution levels. But changes in economic activity also imply changes in the levels of income per capita which may lead to changes in the demand for environmental standards. Moreover, trade will affect pollution levels directly through its impact on the composition of the production bundle, as resources get reallocated across more, or less polluting sectors. All this suggests that the impact of trade openness on pollution is likely to depend on initial conditions and therefore cross-country results are likely to hide significant heterogeneity which may lead to the wrong policy conclusions. The objective of this paper is to assess the impact of Tunisia's trade reforms over the last four decades on its CO 2 emissions by taking into account not only the direct effect of trade on emissions, but also its indirect effect through growth. Using cointegration techniques we disentangle the long and short-run relationship between trade openness, income per capita and CO 2 emissions in Tunisia, and explore the extent of Granger causality among these variables. Results suggest that the direct effect of trade openness on CO 2 emissions is positive both in the short and the long run, but the indirect effect is negative at least in the long run.
WORLD SCIENTIFIC eBooks, Nov 1, 2018
The proliferation of preferential trade liberalization over the last 20 years has raised the ques... more The proliferation of preferential trade liberalization over the last 20 years has raised the question of whether it slows down multilateral trade liberalization. Recent theoretical and empirical evidence indicates this is the case even for unilateral preferences that developed countries provide to small and poor countries but there is no estimate of the resulting welfare costs. To avoid this stumbling block effect we suggest replacing unilateral preferences by a fixed import subsidy. We argue that this scheme would reduce the drag of preferences on multilateral liberalization and generate a Pareto improvement. More importantly, we provide the first estimates of the welfare cost of preferential liberalization as a stumbling block to multilateral liberalization. By combining recent estimates of the stumbling block effect of preferences with data for 170 countries and over 5,000 products we calculate the welfare effects of the United States, European Union and Japan switching from unilateral preferences to Least Developed Countries to the import subsidy scheme. Even in a model with no dynamic gains to trade we find that the switch produces an annual net welfare gain for the 170 countries ($4,354 million) and for each group: the United States, European Union and Japan
World Bank policy research working paper, Feb 6, 2004
This paper explores the extent to which discrimination against foreign applicants in the trademar... more This paper explores the extent to which discrimination against foreign applicants in the trademark registration process can be used as a "behind-the-border" barrier to imports. Prima-facie evidence shows that in some developing countries the ratio of trademark registration to applications is much higher for national than for foreign applicants, which is consistent with the notion of discrimination against foreign firms. A simple model is developed that suggests that incentives to discriminate are stronger when foreign firms produce products that are close in quality to the product produced by domestic firms. This hypothesis is then tested and empirically confirmed in three of the four countries in our sample, suggesting that discretion and discrimination in the trademark registration process can sometimes be used as a protectionist tool.
Princeton University Press eBooks, Jan 21, 2020
The paper focuses on the role played by Trade Related Institutions (TRIs) in shaping trade flows ... more The paper focuses on the role played by Trade Related Institutions (TRIs) in shaping trade flows and their development impact in low-income countries and how these TRIs are shaped by international trade. Three types of TRIs are examined: i) trade agreements; ii) trade promotion organizations; and iii) private TRIs, i.e. fair trade labelling, trading platforms and reputation mechanisms. Recent research reviewed for each type of TRI is then followed by suggestions for further work.
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, 2010
This paper reviews the evidence on the determinants of subsistence agriculture and the barriers t... more This paper reviews the evidence on the determinants of subsistence agriculture and the barriers that farmers face to switch to market-oriented agriculture. We review a number of recent empirical approaches to the estimation of variable, fixed, and sunk transaction costs, with the weight of the evidence suggesting that those costs are very substantial. Tentative policy implications are drawn in terms of infrastructure and support as well as the organization of intermediation markets.
B E Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, Dec 3, 2006
This paper provides a new approach to the evaluation of pre-shipment inspection (PSI) programs as... more This paper provides a new approach to the evaluation of pre-shipment inspection (PSI) programs as ways of improving tariff-revenue collection and reducing fraud when customs administrations are corrupt. We build a model highlighting the contribution of surveillance firms to the generation of information and describing how incentives for fraud and collusive behaviour between importers and customs are affected by the introduction of PSI. It is shown theoretically that the introduction of PSI has an ambiguous effect on the level of customs fraud. Empirically, our econometric results suggest that PSI reduced fraud in the Philippines; it increased it in Argentina and had not significant impact in Indonesia.
Competition between opposing lobbies is an important factor in the endogenous determination of tr... more Competition between opposing lobbies is an important factor in the endogenous determination of trade policy. This paper investigates empirically the consequences of lobbying competition between upstream and downstream producers for trade policy. The theoretical structure underlying the empirical analysis is the well-known Grossman-Helpman model of trade policy determination, modified suitably to account for the cross-sectoral use of inputs in production (itself a quantitatively significant phenomenon with around 50 percent of manufacturing output being used by other sectors rather than in final consumption). Data from more than 40 countries are used in our analysis. Our empirical results validate the predictions of the theoretical model with lobbying competition. Importantly, accounting for lobbying competition also alters substantially estimates of the"welfare-mindedness" of governments in setting trade policy.
Organization (Geneva), and the World Bank for useful comments. The views expressed herein are tho... more Organization (Geneva), and the World Bank for useful comments. The views expressed herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peerreviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies official NBER publications.
Economics and Politics, Mar 21, 2015
type="main" xml:id="ecpo12056-abs-0001"> The objective of this paper is to... more type="main" xml:id="ecpo12056-abs-0001"> The objective of this paper is to evaluate the relative importance of three distinct factors that motivate redistributive government policy: tariff revenues, consumer welfare, and producer profits. We generalize Grossman and Helpman's (1994, American Economic Review 84: 833–850). protection-for-sale model by positing that government places different weights on these components of the welfare of its polity when it decides which industries to protect and to what extent. Employing tariff data from 40 countries, the predictions from this model are used to estimate these weights. The results are surprising in their range and variety. Developing countries with weak tax systems often weigh tariff revenue heavily, while more developed countries weigh producer interests the most. Very few hold consumer welfare dear.
Competition between opposing lobbies is an important factor in the endogenous determination of tr... more Competition between opposing lobbies is an important factor in the endogenous determination of trade policy. This paper investigates empirically the consequences of lobbying competition between upstream and downstream producers for trade policy. The theoretical structure underlying the empirical analysis is the well-known Grossman-Helpman model of trade policy determination, modified suitably to account for the cross-sectoral use of inputs in production (itself a quantitatively significant phenomenon with around 50 percent of manufacturing output being used by other sectors rather than in final consumption). Data from more than 40 countries are used in our analysis. Our empirical results validate the predictions of the theoretical model with lobbying competition. Importantly, accounting for lobbying competition also alters substantially estimates of the"welfare-mindedness" of governments in setting trade policy.
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Books by Marcelo Olarreaga
Las contribuciones de este libro evalúan los méritos de desarrollar disciplinas multilaterales en varios de los temas de la “nueva” agenda comercial, tomando la perspectiva de un país en desarrollo. Uno de los principales mensajes que surgen es que los esfuerzos para introducir reglas sustantivas acerca de los regímenes legales y regulatorios nacionales, pueden ir en detrimento de los países en desarrollo, especialmente si dichos esfuerzos implican una armonización con los estándares de las naciones de altos ingresos. En cambio, sería más fructífero concentrarse en disciplinas procedimentales que apuntan a asegurar la transparencia de las políticas.
Otro mensaje que surge es que son considerables los beneficios potenciales de perseguir una agenda más tradicional de acceso a mercados, enfocada hacia la reducción de las barreras al comercio en bienes y servicios. Esto sugiere que, desde la perspectiva del desarrollo económico, los esfuerzos futuros de negociación deberían centrarse primariamente en reducir las barreras al comercio en agricultura, servicios y manufacturas intensivas en mano de obra tales como las confecciones.
Papers by Marcelo Olarreaga
Las contribuciones de este libro evalúan los méritos de desarrollar disciplinas multilaterales en varios de los temas de la “nueva” agenda comercial, tomando la perspectiva de un país en desarrollo. Uno de los principales mensajes que surgen es que los esfuerzos para introducir reglas sustantivas acerca de los regímenes legales y regulatorios nacionales, pueden ir en detrimento de los países en desarrollo, especialmente si dichos esfuerzos implican una armonización con los estándares de las naciones de altos ingresos. En cambio, sería más fructífero concentrarse en disciplinas procedimentales que apuntan a asegurar la transparencia de las políticas.
Otro mensaje que surge es que son considerables los beneficios potenciales de perseguir una agenda más tradicional de acceso a mercados, enfocada hacia la reducción de las barreras al comercio en bienes y servicios. Esto sugiere que, desde la perspectiva del desarrollo económico, los esfuerzos futuros de negociación deberían centrarse primariamente en reducir las barreras al comercio en agricultura, servicios y manufacturas intensivas en mano de obra tales como las confecciones.