Priscila Lemes
Universidade Federal de Goiás, Departamento de Ecologia, Graduate Student
Scientists still poorly understand how biotic interactions and dispersal limitation jointly interact and affect the ability of species to track suitable habitats under climate change. Here, we examine how animal-plant interactions and... more
Scientists still poorly understand how biotic interactions and dispersal limitation jointly interact and affect the ability of species to track suitable habitats under climate change. Here, we examine how animal-plant interactions and dispersal limitations might affect the responses of Brazil nut-dependent frogs facing projected climate change. Using ecological niche modelling and dispersal simulations, we forecast the future distributions of the Brazil nut tree and three commensalist frog species over time (2030, 2050, 2070, and 2090) in the regional rivalry (SSP370) scenario that includes great challenges to mitigation and adaptation. With the exception of one species, projections point to a decrease in suitable habitats of up to 40.6%. For frog species with potential reductions of co-occurrence areas, this is expected to reduce up to 23.8% of suitable areas for binomial animal-plant relationships. Even so, biotic interactions should not be lost over time. Species will depend on their own dispersal abilities to reach analogous climates in the future for maintaining ecological and evolutionary processes associated with commensal taxa. However, ecological and evolutionary processes associated with commensal taxa should be maintained in accordance with their own dispersal ability. When dispersal limitation is included in the models, the suitable range of all three frog species is reduced considerably by the end of the century. This highlights the importance of dispersal limitation inclusion for forecasting future distribution ranges when biotic interactions matter.
Research Interests:
Research Interests:
Research Interests:
The giant anteater (Myrmecophaga tridactyla) is a strictly myrmecophagous xenarthran species that ranges from Honduras to northern Argentina, occupying various habitats, from grassland and floodplains to forests. According to the IUCN, it... more
The giant anteater (Myrmecophaga tridactyla) is a strictly myrmecophagous xenarthran species that ranges from Honduras to northern Argentina, occupying various habitats, from grassland and floodplains to forests. According to the IUCN, it is a vulnerable species mainly threatened by poaching, habitat loss and fragmentation, and road kills. Here, we investigate the phylogeography, distribution, ecology, and historical demography of Brazilian populations of the giant anteater. We analysed two mitochondrial (mtDNA) and three nuclear (nDNA) markers in 106 individuals from the Cerrado, Pantanal, Atlantic Forest, and Amazon Forest biomes through analyses of population structure and demography, phylogeography, and ecological niche modelling. Two divergent mtDNA clusters were found, one in the Amazon (AM) and another in the Cerrado, Pantanal, and Atlantic Forest biomes (CEPTAF). At the population level, CEPTAF presented higher mtDNA haplotype richness than AM and a unidirectional mtDNA gene...
Research Interests:
Scientists still poorly understand how biotic interactions and dispersal limitation jointly interact and affect the ability of species to track suitable habitats under climate change. Here, we examine how animal-plant interactions and... more
Scientists still poorly understand how biotic interactions and dispersal limitation jointly interact and affect the ability of species to track suitable habitats under climate change. Here, we examine how animal-plant interactions and dispersal limitations might affect the responses of Brazil nut-dependent frogs facing projected climate change. Using ecological niche modelling and dispersal simulations, we forecast the future distributions of the Brazil nut tree and three commensalist frog species over time (2030, 2050, 2070, and 2090) in the regional rivalry (SSP370) scenario that includes great challenges to mitigation and adaptation. With the exception of one species, projections point to a decrease in suitable habitats of up to 40.6%. For frog species with potential reductions of co-occurrence areas, this is expected to reduce up to 23.8% of suitable areas for binomial animal-plant relationships. Even so, biotic interactions should not be lost over time. Species will depend on their own dispersal abilities to reach analogous climates in the future for maintaining ecological and evolutionary processes associated with commensal taxa. However, ecological and evolutionary processes associated with commensal taxa should be maintained in accordance with their own dispersal ability. When dispersal limitation is included in the models, the suitable range of all three frog species is reduced considerably by the end of the century. This highlights the importance of dispersal limitation inclusion for forecasting future distribution ranges when biotic interactions matter.
Research Interests:
Understanding which factors driving the genetic structure, geographic distribution patterns, and divergence of populations/species are of great interest in ecology and evolutionary biology. Phylogeographic and species hypotheses combined... more
Understanding which factors driving the genetic structure, geographic distribution patterns, and divergence of populations/species are of great interest in ecology and evolutionary biology. Phylogeographic and species hypotheses combined to distribution models may elucidate which phenomena drove evolutionary history of the biota of different biomes and ecoregions. Herein, we used distribution, environmental and genetic data to shed light on the evolutionary diversity of the Scinax granulatus complex, exploring the phylogeographic patterns, genetic structure and species boundaries across the Pampa and Southern Atlantic Forest biomes. We recovered four mitochondrial lineages which correspond to two putative species within the S. granulatus complex. We used genetic data to define species hypothesis with three discovery methods: bGMYC, bPTP and ASAP, and two delimitation approaches: BPP and BPP + gdi. We validated the species boundaries, confirming the differentiation of Scinax sp. lineage D from Atlantic Forest lowlands habitats, based on genetic data, ecological divergence and monophyly. Lineage D exhibited niche differentiation from S. granulatus sensu stricto (s.s.) based on distribution and environmental data. The climatic suitability of S. sp. D is defined by thermal variables, while that of S. granulatus s.s. was associated with rainfall. The diversification of the S. granulatus complex began during the Pliocene, but the colonization and divergence of lineages took place more recently during the Pleistocene. This study strongly suggests species‐level evolutionary divergence among lineages of S. granulatus complex, and highlights the need to carry out a comprehensive evaluation of diagnostic characters to confirm the lineage D as a distinct species.
Research Interests:
To contribute to what is known about involvement of vegetation dynamics in Neotropical speciation, we used the Epidendrum latilabre complex, a taxonomically well-defined species group, to investigate past connections between Amazonian... more
To contribute to what is known about involvement of vegetation dynamics in Neotropical speciation, we used the Epidendrum latilabre complex, a taxonomically well-defined species group, to investigate past connections between Amazonian (AM) and Atlantic (AF) forests and address the following topics: (1) divergence times between sister species currently distributed in AM and AF; (2) distribution patterns of ancestral species of the E. latilabre complex and (3) potential routes connecting ancestral ranges between AM and AF. We developed a robust phylogenetic estimate for species of the E. latilabre complex by sequencing two nuclear and six plastid loci. Then, we combined divergence time estimation, ancestral range reconstruction and ecological niche modelling. Our biogeographic reconstruction exhibits a complex pattern of connections among tropical forests east of the Andes in South America. The AM and AF species of the E. latilabre complex are intermixed in the results, and climatic s...
Research Interests: Plant Biology, Biology, Ecology, Biogeography, Orchidaceae, and 3 moreVicariance, Land bridge, and Epidendrum
Climate change is now recognized as a reality and along with human pressures such as river fragmentation by dams, amplifies the threats to freshwater ecosystems and their biodiversity. In the Brazilian portion of the Upper Paraguay River... more
Climate change is now recognized as a reality and along with human pressures such as river fragmentation by dams, amplifies the threats to freshwater ecosystems and their biodiversity. In the Brazilian portion of the Upper Paraguay River Basin (UPRB) that encompasses the Pantanal, one of the largest tropical wetlands in the world, in addition to the high biodiversity found there, fisheries are an important ecosystem service mostly supported by migratory fishes. We estimated the current range of migratory fish of commercial interest, also assessing the climate change effects predicted on the distribution patterns. Then, we assessed the effects of future climate on fish richness, and combining species ranges with routes blocked by artificial dams investigated possible impacts on fishery and food security in the UPRB. Climate change will induce range contraction between 47% and 100% for the species analyzed, and only four migratory fish may have suitable habitat until the end-of-century. The local richness will reduce about 85% in the basin. River fragmentation by dams acting together with climate change will prevent upstream shifts for most fish species. About 4% of present range and up to 45% of future range of migratory fish should be blocked by dams in UPRB. Consequently, this will also negatively affect fishery yield and food security in the future.
Research Interests:
Geographical patterns of montane biodiversity worldwide are related to biotic and abiotic factors, such as historical climate dynamics and species dispersal capabilities, which affect the biota from population to community levels.... more
Geographical patterns of montane biodiversity worldwide are related to biotic and abiotic factors, such as historical climate dynamics and species dispersal capabilities, which affect the biota from population to community levels. Understanding of processes related to population diversification in extra‐Andean Neotropical mountains remains largely unknown. Here, we tested how colonization of new areas as opposed to fragmentation of geographical ranges influenced the distribution and diversification of frogs from Brazilian mountains.
Research Interests:
<b>Background</b>: <i>Araucaria</i> forests are mountain ecosystems that might have expanded in the late Holocene, however past distributions remain uncertain. If current distribution reflects climatic conditions,... more
<b>Background</b>: <i>Araucaria</i> forests are mountain ecosystems that might have expanded in the late Holocene, however past distributions remain uncertain. If current distribution reflects climatic conditions, past and future distributions may be projected using climate models. <b>Aims</b>: To contribute to the understanding of past and future distribution of <i>Araucaria</i> forests as a function of climate, we hypothesised that (1) they have increased their geographic distribution since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) until the present; and (2) would contract under predicted future climates. <b>Methods</b>: We modelled the spatial distributions of <i>Araucaria</i> forests under current, past and future climatic scenarios. Ecological niche models of 12 indicator species were developed using ensemble modelling. <b>Results</b>: The greatest extent of distribution of <i>Araucaria</i> forests appeared to have occurred during the LGM, after which a continuous retraction followed until the present. Our models suggested that <i>Araucaria</i> forests would experience an even greater retraction in the future. <b>Conclusion</b>: <i>Araucaria</i> forests could have covered larger areas during the LGM than suggested by earlier palynological studies, because climate was suitable for their distribution. The degree of loss of modelled distribution area since the LGM until today indicate these forests are likely to continue to shrink under projected future climatic changes.
Research Interests:
Currently, more than 40% of extant amphibian species are threatened with extinction and a quarter of them still lack information to be classified as threatened, being therefore enlisted as Data Deficient by the International Union for the... more
Currently, more than 40% of extant amphibian species are threatened with extinction and a quarter of them still lack information to be classified as threatened, being therefore enlisted as Data Deficient by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) (1,2). Furthermore, amphibians are the greatest underrepresented group in the global network of protected areas (PAs) worldwide. A decade ago, some studies showed that around 17% of amphibian species lived completely outside of protected areas (3). Obviously, the underrepresentation of amphibians in protected areas is much higher for range-restricted species that inhabit highly humanmodified landscapes. Even in face of this worrying scenario, since 2004 not a single update has been published showing amphibian species represented inside PAs at the global scale. Actually, there is a large gap of information, especially if we consider that today data on the distribution of many amphibian species are available, and the areas covered by PAs has increased over the last ten years from 11% to more than 13% worldwideFil: Loyola, Rafael. Universidade Federal de Goiás; BrasilFil: Lemes, Priscila. Universidade Federal de Goiás; BrasilFil: Urbina Cardona, Nicolás. Pontificia Universidad Javeriana; ColombiaFil: Baldo, Juan Diego. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Nordeste. Instituto de Biología Subtropical. Instituto de Biología Subtropical - Nodo Posadas | Universidad Nacional de Misiones. Instituto de Biología Subtropical. Instituto de Biología Subtropical - Nodo Posadas; ArgentinaFil: Lescano, Julian. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas Físicas y Naturales. Centro de Zoología Aplicada; ArgentinaFil: Nori, Javier. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas Físicas y Naturales. Centro de Zoología Aplicada; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Córdoba; Argentin
Research Interests:
Research Interests:
Research Interests:
The campo rupestre ecosystem is considered an old, climatically buffered, infertile landscape. As a consequence, long-term isolation is thought to have played an important role in the diversification of its biota. Here, we tested for... more
The campo rupestre ecosystem is considered an old, climatically buffered, infertile landscape. As a consequence, long-term isolation is thought to have played an important role in the diversification of its biota. Here, we tested for hybridization between two endemic leaf frogs from the campo rupestre. We used sequence markers and coalescent models to verify haplotype sharing between the species, to test the existence and direction of gene flow, and to reconstruct the spatiotemporal dynamics of gene flow. Additionally, ecological niche modelling (ENM) was used to assess for potential co-occurrence by overlapping the climatic niche of these species since the middle Pleistocene. We found haplotype sharing and/or lack of differentiation in four nuclear fragments, one of them associated with introgression. The coalescent models support introgressive hybridization unidirectionally from Pithecopus megacephalus to P. ayeaye, occurring ~300 kya. ENM corroborates this scenario, revealing are...
Research Interests:
Research Interests:
Research Interests:
Research Interests:
Research Interests:
Research Interests:
Habitat loss is the most important cause of species extinction worldwide that can act as a catalyst of biological invasions. To prevent species extinction, in-situ conservation strategies still figure as the cornerstone of biodiversity... more
Habitat loss is the most important cause of species extinction worldwide that can act as a catalyst of biological invasions. To prevent species extinction, in-situ conservation strategies still figure as the cornerstone of biodiversity conservation. However, with expected broad-scale environmental changes likely to produce species range shifts and foster alien species invasions, will existing networks of protected areas be able to guarantee the long-term persistence of the species they should protect? Here we evaluate the potential impact of climate change in driving the invasive American bullfrog Lithobates catesbeianus into reserves currently established in the Atlantic Forest Biodiversity Hotspot. We produced potential geographic distribution maps both for current time and for 2050 using eight species distribution modeling methods and three different climate models to evaluate model uncertainty. We then overlaid a consensus prediction of species distribution to the existing network of protected areas. We show that, under climate change, L. catesbeianus is likely to colonize reserves more efficiently than today, putting in jeopardy native amphibian species thought to be protected in such places. We also suggest some policy recommendations to mitigate such potential impact on the Atlantic Forest native amphibian fauna.
Research Interests:
Research Interests:
Research Interests: Engineering, Physics, Chemistry, Climate Change, Phylogeography, and 15 moreBiology, Brazil, Climate, Climate Change Adaptation And Mitigation Strategies, Biodiversity, Endangered Species, Medicine, Multidisciplinary, Climate Change and Biodiversity, Multivariate Analysis, Mammals, Animals, Mammals of neotropics, Marsupialia, and Conservation of Natural Resources
Habitat loss is the most important cause of species extinction worldwide that can act as a catalyst of biological invasions. To prevent species extinction, in-situ conservation strategies still figure as the cornerstone of biodiversity... more
Habitat loss is the most important cause of species extinction worldwide that can act as a catalyst of biological invasions. To prevent species extinction, in-situ conservation strategies still figure as the cornerstone of biodiversity conservation. However, with expected broad-scale environmen- tal changes likely to produce species range shifts and foster alien species invasions, will existing networks of protected areas be able to guarantee the long-term persistence of the species they should protect? Here we evaluate the potential impact of climate change in driving the invasive American bullfrog Lithobates catesbeianus into reserves currently established in the Atlantic Forest Biodiversity Hotspot. We produced potential geographic distribution maps both for current time and for 2050 using eight species distribution modeling methods and three different climate models to eva- luate model uncertainty. We then overlaid a consensus prediction of species distribution to the existing n...
Research Interests:
Research Interests:
Research Interests:
Research Interests:
Research Interests:
Research Interests:
Research Interests:
Research Interests:
ABSTRACT Despite wide evidence of a quickly changing world, systematic conservation planning analyses are usually static assuming that the biodiversity being preserved in sites do not change through time. Here we generated a comprehensive... more
ABSTRACT Despite wide evidence of a quickly changing world, systematic conservation planning analyses are usually static assuming that the biodiversity being preserved in sites do not change through time. Here we generated a comprehensive ensemble forecasting experiment for 444 amphibian species inhabiting the Atlantic Forest Biodiversity Hotspot. Models were based on four methods for modeling ecological niches, and three future climate simulations. Combinations of these models were used to estimate species occurrences. We used species occurrences to optimize the current and future representation of amphibians with different conservation targets based on their geographic range size. We compared spatial priority outcomes (variance of site selection frequency scores) under dynamic conditions, using a bi-dimensional plot in which the relative importance of each site in achieving conservation targets was assessed both for current time and to 2050. Projections for 2050 show that species richness pattern will remain approximately constant, whereas high turnover rates are forecasted. Selection frequency of several locations varied widely, with recurrent sites located at the north and southeast of the biome. As for 2050, spatial priorities concentrate in the northern part of the biome. Thirty-three sites have high priority for conservation as they play an important role now and will still stand as priority locations in 2050. We present a conceptual model for dynamic spatial conservation prioritization that helps to identify priority sites under climate change. We also call attention to sites in which risk of investment is high, and to those that may become interesting options in the future.