Preslav Dimitrov

This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY)
In the context of current crises following COVID-19 and growing global economic uncertainties, the issues regarding financial transactions with FINTECH are increasingly apparent. Consequently, in our opinion, the utilization of FINTECH financial transactions leads to a risk-reduction approach when in contact with other people. Moreover, financial transactions with FINTECH can save up customers’ pecuniary funds. Therefore, during crises, FINTECH applications can be perceived as more competitive than the traditional banking system. All the above have provoked us to conduct research related to the utilization of financial transactions with FINTECH before and after the COVID-19 crisis outbreak. The aim of the article is to present a survey analysis of FINTECH utilization of individual customers before and after the crisis in Bulgaria. The methodology includes a questionnaire survey of 242 individual respondents. For the data processing, we implemented statistical measures and quantitative methods, including two-sample paired t-tests, Levene’s test, and ANOVAs performed through the computer language Python in a web-based interactive computing environment for creating documents, Jupyter Notebook. The findings bring out the main issues related to the implementation of financial transactions with FINTECH under the conditions of the crisis. The findings include the identification of problems related to FINTECH transactions during the COVID-19 crisis in Bulgaria.

The specific design of the Bulgarian currency board arrangement (CBA), which provides an opportunity for the Bulgarian government to conduct discretionary monetary policy by changes in the fiscal reserve, was analyzed. The impact of government deposit fluctuations on the dynamics of reserve money and interbank interest rates was investigated. The hypotheses of an automatic adjustment mechanism and a liquidity effect under the Bulgarian currency board arrangement were tested. The methodology employed was a vector autoregression, which included the following variables: MB – monetary base; BP – the balance of payments; GD – government deposit on the balance sheet of the Issue Department of the Bulgarian National Bank; MRR – minimum required reserve ratio of commercial banks. The target variable was MB. Monthly data for the period of January 1998 - December 2018 were used. The study results did not provide evidence of a statistically significant impact of changes in government deposit o...

Most of the Bulgarian rural municipalities need to back up their investment decisions in tourism infrastructure by preliminary analysis and forecasts. The present paper regards several major problems in the application of exponential smoothing methods for the purpose of the long-run forecasting for the needs of the mountainous municipality of Stambolovo, Bulgaria, such as: (i) the problem of determining the time series pattern; or the so-called “forecast profile”; (ii) the selection of a suitable forecasting method; (iii) Calculating of short-run and long-run forecasts; and (iv) the comparison of the results of the forecast techniques on the basis of the errors in the forecasts. A specially designed model for estimation of the weight coefficient needed for determining the size of the rural tourism and ecotourism sectors of this very same municipality, located near Bulgaria’s border with Greece and Turkey, is being presented.

The results of the present paper were also presented on the 3rd Olympus International Conference on Supply Chains, held in Athens, Greece, 8-7 November 2015. It regards the application of some forecasting methods in the Bulgarian tourism industry such as: the linear trend forecasting, the double exponential forecasting (the Holt’s method), the triple exponential forecasting (the Holt-Winters Method) and the ARIMA method. Specially designed model for estimation of the weight coefficient needed for determining the size of the sector of the spa and wellness tourism in the time series of the available data and in the forecast values is being presented. A time series and past period predictions have been constructed based on statistical records since 1964 in order to test the forecasting methods presented in the paper and to produce forecasts up to the year 2030.
The present paper regards also several major problems in the application of the exponential smoothing methods for the purpose of the long-run forecasting for the needs of the spa and wellness subsector of the tourism industry in Bulgaria. These problems include as: (i) the problem of finding of a suitable general indicator; (iii) Calculating of short-run and long-run forecasts; and (iv) the comparison of the results of the forecast techniques on the basis of the errors in the forecasts. The results from the different forecasting methods and techniques are being presented and conclusions are drawn on the reliability of the achieved forecasts.

The article briefly examines the problems standing in front of the Bulgarian national tourism advertising campaigns and tries to suggest respective solutions to these problems. The main problem that has been outlined is that Bulgaria lacks a recognizable image among the foreign audiences, i.e. among the international visitors and tourists. The symbols that are often considered to serve as a na tional emblem and authenticity marks by the Bulgarians are of little or no meaning for the interna tional travelers. The interrelation between the emitting tourism markets in Western Europe, the overall economic situation in this part of the continent and the performance of the Bulgarian tourism industry has also been revealed. Suggestions are being made in regard to emphasizing on the strong and attractive sides of the Bulgarian tourism such as the high quality spa and wellness industry, the opportunities of enjoying of wines which are virtually free of sulphates due to the geographical location of the country and etc. Forecast are also being provided for needs of the target setting in the Bulgarian national tourism campaigns.

Investments play a key role in the tourism enterprises' policy for quality improving and for increasing of competitiveness of the hotel products offered to the market. By definition "investments" are usually regarded as an input of financial proceeds for acquiring of assets aimed at achieving of income, increase in capital or other kinds of positive results for a long-term period. By rule, investment in real assets, often named in Bulgaria by tradition as "capital investments", represent one of the main field of investment activities of the hoteliers' businesses. With the advance of the globalization processes, however, a simple combination of high quality assets, good services and attractive natural resources cannot always guarantee a success to the representatives of the hotel industry. Beautiful scenery, golden sand beaches and warm seas or high mountains are found all over the World. The real hotel competitiveness usually comes as a result of the proper investments also in the so called intangible assets: (I) specific skills, knowledge and experience of each of the hotel's employees (the human capital); (ii) written and incorporated knowledge in the working process and systems of the hotel (the structural capital); (iii) the abilities and skills of the hotel employees to cooperate and work together based on the mutual trust. The process of investing in intangible assets can be divided into several stages, each of them associated with a specific number of specific risks. The detailed knowledge of this particular type of investment process could allow easily the hotel firms to take the right investment decisions. Furthermore: identifying, assessing and evaluating of specific risks, associated to the different stages of the investment process, can help the investors in the hotel businesses to minimize the possible threats and damages to their desired outcome and thus to turn the intangible assets and risk management into an applicable and powerful tool.

The cross border regions of South-West Bulgaria and Northern Greece have incurred an increasing number of the tourism arrivals since the accession of both Bulgaria and Romania to the European Union in 2007. The present paper regards several major problems in the application of the exponential smoothing methods for the purpose of the long-run forecasting for the needs of the of the implementation in South-West Bulgaria of the LOFT Project funded by the European territorial cooperation programme “Greece – Bulgaria 2007 – 2013”. These problems include as: (i) the problem of determining the time series pattern; or the so-called “forecast profile”; (ii) the selection of a suitable forecasting method; (iii) Calculating of short-run and long-run forecasts; (iv) the comparison of the results of the forecast techniques on the basis of the errors in the forecasts; and (v) estimating the size of South-West Bulgaria in certain terms, so that the forecast(s) of the above-mentioned general indicator could be particularized especially for the needs of this region. As a result the Holt-Winters method is applied with an account of the possible economic cycles inherent in the regarded time series.

Most of the Bulgarian rural municipalities need to back up their investment decisions in tourism infrastructure by preliminary analysis and forecasts. The present paper regards several major problems in the application of exponential smoothing methods for the purpose of the long-run forecasting for the needs of the mountainous municipality of Stambolovo, Bulgaria, such as: (i) the problem of determining the time series pattern; or the so-called “forecast profile”; (ii) the selection of a suitable forecasting method; (iii) Calculating of short-run and long-run forecasts; and (iv) the comparison of the results of the forecast techniques on the basis of the errors in the forecasts. A specially designed model for estimation of the weight coefficient needed for determining the size of the rural tourism and ecotourism sectors of this very same municipality, located near Bulgaria’s border with Greece and Turkey, is being presented.

Abstract Tourism firms offering ecological tourism products inevitably impact environmentally protected territories. Monitoring and management of these impacts are required. In this direction, one applicable and effective approach appears to be intangible asset management.

In the past twelve years Bulgaria has managed to capitalize on the good results achieved in certain subsectors of its tourism industry, such as the spa and wellness industry. The fluctuations in the international tourism markets due to the world economic crisis, however, still provoke hesitations for the investors in the Bulgarian tourism industry. This uncertainty and the fear of possible negative outcomes in Bulgaria’s spa and wellness tourism could be diminished if there are comparatively true long-term forecasts for what is to happen in the coming 10 or 12 years.

The present paper regards the application of some forecasting methods in the spa and wellness sub-sector of the Bulgarian tourism industry such as linear trend forecasting and double exponential forecasting (Holt’s method). A specially designed model for estimation of the weight coefficient needed for determining the size of the sector of the spa and wellness tourism in the time series of the available data and in the forecast values is presented. A time series and past period predictions have been constructed based on statistical records since 1964 in order to test the forecasting methods presented in the paper and to produce forecasts up to the year 2022.

The statistical recording of occupational accidents in Bulgaria has a history of almost a century. The first annual statistical data were recorded 1922 and the annual statistical surveys were published in joint editions at every four or five years up to 1988. The only exception took place within the period 1948 – 1951 when there were no statistical records made due to the turbulent economic situation after the end of the World War II, the transition to a Soviet-style planned economy (the nationalization of the private industrial enterprises), the aftermaths of the Paris Treaty (stipulating the expropriation of all the German industrial property in Bulgaria in favour of the Soviet Union and the consequent having it back arrangements needed to be accepted by the Bulgarian government. Since 1989 till now, the annual statistic data have regularly been recorded in the statistical yearbooks of the Republic of Bulgaria. All these allows quite a long time series to built and thus to search for a method for the future forecasting of the occupational accidents in Bulgaria for planning and policing making purposes.
The present paper regards the application of some forecasting methods for the purpose of the short and long-run forecasting of occupational accidents in Bulgaria, as well as the circumstances that define certain variables (smoothing constants) in these methods.

The statistical recording of occupational accidents in Bulgaria has a history of almost a century. The first annual statistical data were recorded in 1922 and the process of recording continued with almost no interruptions. All these allow quite a long time series to be built which has its own ‘memory’ and is considered to have reflected all possible external and internal influences. Such a time series also allows searching for and applying of a univariate method for forecasting of the occupational accidents in Bulgaria.

The present paper regards several major problems in the application of exponential smoothing methods for the purpose of the long-run forecasting of occupational accidents in Bulgaria, such as: (i) the problem of determining the time series pattern; or the so-called “forecast profile”; (ii) the selection of a suitable forecasting method; (iii) Calculating of short-run and long-run forecasts; and (iv) the comparison of the results of the forecast techniques on the basis of the errors in the forecasts. Some conclusions on the produced forecasts are also being presented together with interpretations on the meaning of the different values of the smoothing constant with reference to the problems of over-reporting, under-reporting of occupational accidents and deindustrialization of economy.

In the recent ten years the Bulgarian tourism industry has reached a stage of a bubbling increase, which was followed by the negative impact of the world financial and economic crisis.
The fluctuations of the tourism markets, which were felt as an aftermath of the economic crisis, took in surprise a significant part of the representatives of the Bulgarian tourism industry, the big investors (banks, investment funds, and holding companies), as well as the entrepreneurs themselves. All of them had overoptimistically expected a positive and stable development of this sector of the economy.
The failed and disappointed expectations, however, could have been avoided if alarming and comparatively true long-run forecasts were presented for what was to happen. Ant this refers also to some separate sub-sectors of the Bulgarian tourism, such as the cultural, tourism, the spa and wellness tourism and the rural tourism.
The present paper regards the application of some forecasting methods for the purpose of the long-run forecasting of the market situation development of the Bulgarian tourism industry such the linear trend forecasting and the double exponential forecasting (the Holt’s method).

The present paper focuses on a particular methodology for measuring the occupational health and safety risks in tourism companies by numerical risk coefficients. The methodology is based on the achievements of several US and international research and innovation development programs, such as: “SSP”, “ISSP”, “F/A-18” and “AFMC”. Under this methodology, the occupational health and safety risks are regarded as a function of three variable factors: the likelihood of occurrence of a negative, risk event; the consequences from the realization of this very same risk event and the immediacy of occurrence of the risk event in respect of time. The values of each of these three variables are being measured by the help of score card estimation tables and are being presented as per a zero-referent scale of 1 to 10 or of 1 to 100. Thus a final estimation of the value of a certain occupational health and safety risk can be achieved. The advantages and the opportunities for improving of this methodology on an enterprise level are reviewed as well. The main advantage which is pointed out is that the methodology could by used even by inexperienced tourism company which has small or small or no past record of health and safety risk measurement.

In the addition to the risk measurement and quantification methodology, a set of criteria for acceptance of the occupational health and safety risks are also presented. This includes: the usage of risk matrixes, the “f-N” curves and the “ALARP” principle.

Abstract: At the present seven years the Bulgarian tourism industry has reached a stage not just of a positive growth but also of a true bubbling. And this provides not only opportunities but also threats to the development of the Bulgaria’s tourism companies. An economic myopia at this stage of development could later be paid at a very high price by the Bulgarian tourism sector. Therefore, the necessity of the modern tourism industry to perform more flexibly to the surrounding business environment in both national and global scale makes the situation survey and analysis useful and practical survival tools. The present papers focus on the opportunities provided by the short-run forecasting of arrivals the revenues earned by the Bulgarian tourism industry. It also regards the methodology that should be used to make the forecasting of the tourism situation indicators more accurate and precise, and the results more understandable by the Management of the tourism companies. The main short-run forecasting techniques, which are applied, include (i) the naïve (simple) forecasting; (ii) the moving average; and (iii) the exponential smoothing. Two consequent forecasts, using these techniques, of the arrivals and revenues being presented: one for 2007 and one for 2008. Thus real error estimations are being calculated and opportunities for improvement of the forecasting models are provided.

Българската туристическа индустрия винаги е била един от най-отворените към външния свят сектори на българската икономика. И това е било отличителна черта на българския туристически сектор, както в годините до втората световна война, така и в периода на годините на централизирана планова икономика и ориентираност предимно към пазарите от Централна и Източна Европа и бившия СССР. Нещо повече, преходът към пазарна икономика на България след 1989 г. доведе до една истинска турбулентност в развитието на туризма в страната, която има основания не само в предизвиканите от същия този преход икономически промени, но и в редица външни въздействия от страна на най-важните емитивни в туристическо отношение пазари. След истинския бум постигнат до началото на глобалната финансова и икономическа риза през 2008 г., българският туризъм, следвайки влиянието на външните и вътрешни конюнктурни фактори и подчинявайки се на обективното си циклично развитие, успя отново да се докаже като един от най-жизнените отрасли на националната икономика. Състоянието на глобална пандемия от COVID 19 през първата половина на 2020 г., от своя страна, разтърси не просто туристическата индустрия в глобален мащаб из основи, но и може би коренно ще промени потребителските навици и възприятие. Пандемията от корона вирус постави българския туризъм в условията на нуждаещ се от реанимация и както никога до сега
Основна задача на настоящата монография е да се предостави работещ инструментариум за прогнозиране на икономическите показатели в туристическата индустрия и по-конкретно туристическите пазари в лицето на методите на експоненциалното изглаждане. Това се оказва особено важно за тези от показателите, които охарактеризират конюнктурата в туристическата индустрия и чрез прогнозирането на които би могло да се погледне в бъдещето й развитие.
В тази връзка е обърнато внимание на цялостната концептуална рамка нанучнообоснованото прогнозиране, както и мястото на методите за прогнозиране чрез използване на експоненциално изглаждане (експоненциалните методи за прогнозиране) като част от така наречените унивариативни методи за прогнозиране. Разгледана е появата и еволюцията на експоненциалните методи за прогнозиране и подробно е представено развитието на тяхната таксономия. С оглед на практическото им използване по отношение на показателите, които характеризират туристическите пазари и по-конкретно за нуждите на българската туристическа индустрия са разгледани някои от основните методи за експоненциални прогнозиране, а именно: метода на простото (единично) експоненциално изглаждане в чистия му вариант и във варианта му с прилагане на теоремата на Браун; метода на двойното експоненциално изглаждане на Браун; методите на експоненциалното прогнозиране при наличието на тренд и цикличност: метод на Холт и метод на Холт-Уинтърс и методите, основани на Холт-Уинтърс експоненциално прогнозиране от вида „цикъл в цикъл“: метод на Тейлър и метод на Трул, Гарсиа-Диас и Тронкосо. Тъй като настоящата монография няма претенциите да бъде всеобхватен енциклопедичен справочни за всичките тридесет на брой методи за прогнозиране, то са разгледани само онези от тях, които имат и биха могли да имат най-голяма практическа приложимост в сферата на туристическата индустрия и туристическите пазари. За част от разгледаните методи за прогнозиране е представена емпирична информация, която онагледява прилагането им. Обърнато е особено внимание и на методите за инициализиране на променливите, които характеризират времевите редове и представляват част от уравненията на всеки един от методите за прогнозиране чрез експоненциално изглаждане. Въз основа на емпиричните изследвания на автора от последните 12 години в отделна глава са представени разширени примери за прилагането на методите на Холт и Холт-Уинтърс по отношение: прогнозиране на туристическите приходи на национално равнище при месечни и годишни данни; прогнозиране на разходите за труд в туризма; прогнозиране на броя на туристическите пристигания с цел отдих и почивка в България на база годишни данни и прогнозиране на броя на заразените с COVID 19 за нуждите на туристическата индустрия.
Настоящата монография би представлявала интерес, както за изследователите в сферата на туризма, така и за специалистите и мениджърите от туристическата индустрия, които са изправени пред необходимостта да вземат решения в условията на изострен конкурентен натиск на национално, регионално и международно равнище при навлизането им на нови пазари и/или при отстояването на вече заети пазарни позиции.

Българската туристическа индустрия винаги е била един от най-отворените към външния свят сектори на българската икономика. И това е било отличителна черта на българския туристически сектор, както в годините до втората световна война, така и в периода на годините на централизирана планова икономика и съветска икономическа доминация. Нещо повече, преходът към пазарна икономика на България след 1989 г. доведе до една истинска турбулентност в развитието на туризма в страната, която има основания не само в предизвиканите от същия този преход икономически промени, но и в редица външни въздействия от страна на най-важните емитивни в туристическо отношение пазари. След истинския бум постигнат до началото на глобалната финансова и икономическа риза през 2008 г., българският туризъм, следвайки влиянието на външните и вътрешни конюнктурни фактори и подчинявайки се на обективното си циклично развитие, успя отново да се докаже като един от най-жизнените отрасли на националната икономика.
Същевременно от началото на третото хилядолетие туристическите пазари по света се променят, както по отношение на съставящите ги потребители, така и по отношение на географските им аспекти - нови потребности, нови навици, нови генериращи туристически потоци региони, нови дестинации. Потребителите все повече открито заявяват нарастващото търсене на туристически преживявания, респективно на туристически продукти, които са “уникални” или “различни от всички останали” при това на фона на една постоянно увеличаваща се конкуренция както между отделните дестинации, така и между отделните туристически фирми. Засилва се все повече желанието на туриста не просто да види, а да съпреживее една друга култура, която притежава различен профил от неговата собствена. Същевременно у туристите е налице една все по-голямата загриженост за ефекта върху и последиците от измененията в околната среда. Своето въздействие тук оказва и процесът на глобализация във всичките си измерения (позитивни и негативни) като например – постоянно нарастващата мобилност на такива производствени фактори като капиталите, знанията и човешките ресурси и вездесъщото приложение на информационните и комуникационни технологии. Причината за появата на нови туристически пазари и за изчезването на такива, за които се считало, че ще бъдат стабилни в дългосрочен аспект се дължи, както на вече споменатите фактори, така и на все по честите прояви на международния тероризъм, на изострянето в световен мащаб на чувството на несигурност. И ако само допреди десетилетие за осигуряването на безопасност на туристите по време пътуването им до и на престоя им в дадената дестинация се разчиташе на спазването на определен набор от правила и норми и на взаимодействието между различните служби и органи за сигурност в отделните страни, то понастоящем затова ще е необходимо да се управляват междукултурните взаимодействия, както по оста туристи – местно население, така и по оста на традиционните жители и новонастанилите се в дадена дестинация мигрантски общности. Познаването на цялата тази съвкупност от процеси и конкретното им въздействие спрямо даден, конкретен пазар на туристически продукти е основната цел на конюнктурата като икономическа дисциплина и конюнктурните изследвания по отношение на туристическата индустрия.
Основна задача на настоящия учебник е да се предоставят знания за специфичните особености на конюнктурата в туристическата индустрия, както и умения за използване на методите за нейното изследване и оценка в оперативен, краткосрочен и дългосрочен план.
Настоящият учебник е предназначен за студентите от специалност “Туризъм” на Стопанския факултет на Югозападния университет “Неофит Рилски”, Благоевград. Същевременно той би представлявал интерес и за специалистите от туристическата индустрия, които са изправени пред необходимостта да вземат решения в условията на изострен конкурентен натиск на национално, регионално и международно равнище при навлизането им на нови пазари и/или при отстояването на вече заети пазарни позиции.