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CN109086914B - Modeling method for route planning of hazardous chemicals vehicles based on dynamic domino risk - Google Patents

Modeling method for route planning of hazardous chemicals vehicles based on dynamic domino risk Download PDF

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CN109086914B
CN109086914B CN201810766865.7A CN201810766865A CN109086914B CN 109086914 B CN109086914 B CN 109086914B CN 201810766865 A CN201810766865 A CN 201810766865A CN 109086914 B CN109086914 B CN 109086914B
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郑松
王芳
葛铭
郑小青
魏江
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Hangzhou Dianzi University
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Abstract

The hazardous chemical substance vehicle path planning modeling method based on the dynamic domino risk comprises the following steps: acquiring a road network and path planning related parameters between a dangerous chemical substance vehicle transportation starting point s and a terminal point e; the path planning related parameters include: the length of each road section of the road network, the probability of traffic accidents of each road section, the accident type, the accident weight and the influence radius of each type and the population density around the accident influence range; the accident types include: leaks, accidents only, fires and explosions; converting the road network into a undirected network node map, connecting the communication road sections among the nodes by taking road junction points as nodes in the undirected network node map, and setting the road length among the nodes as the basic weight of the road sections among the nodes; and establishing a hazardous chemical substance vehicle path planning model based on dynamic domino risks based on the domino road risk value.

Description

Hazardous chemical substance vehicle path planning modeling method based on dynamic domino risk
Technical Field
The invention relates to the field of hazardous chemical substance transportation, in particular to a hazardous chemical substance vehicle path planning modeling method based on dynamic domino risks.
Background
The rapid development of the chemical industry has prompted the rapid increase and increasing frequency of the amount of hazardous chemical transportation over the past few decades, with over 95% of hazardous chemicals differing in their production and use, which has relied on remote transportation. Among them, about 80% of the dangerous chemical transportation depends on land transportation, and the transportation of dangerous chemicals is a serious problem, and the safety problem of the transportation of the dangerous chemicals is increasingly highlighted. In accidents involving hazardous chemicals, over 40% of the time occurs in the transportation sector. The dangerous chemical transportation accident has the characteristics of low probability and high risk, and once the accident happens, the dangerous chemical transportation accident not only can cause the influence on the environment for a long time and is difficult to repair, but also can easily cause serious casualties, and directly generates huge economic loss. However, in the past studies, only the primary accident consequences are considered for the accident consequences, and the secondary accident consequences such as the occurrence of an explosion fire are rarely considered.
The catastrophic cascade accidents caused in the accident propagation process are called domino effect, the sivedox law promulgated by the european union provides an authoritative basis for paying attention to the occurrence of domino accidents in chemical industrial parks, the law is revised three times in 1996, 2003 and 2012 respectively, and the evaluation of domino risks must be added in the risk evaluation of the chemical industrial parks specified in the file. As the density of storage and process equipment and population increases, the domino effect becomes more and more important in chemical concentration areas. In the research on the domino risks, a great part of research is on the propagation research of the domino risks in a chemical industrial park, a hazardous chemical vehicle is a moving hazard source in the transportation process, and when the hazard source exists around the hazardous chemical vehicle, the risk of causing domino accidents is also existed. When dangerous chemical substance vehicles have accidents, accident consequences of explosion or fire can be caused, and the accident influence range and the injury radius can be greatly increased. If other dangerous sources exist nearby, such as dangerous chemical storage tanks existing in a chemical industry park and gas stations beside roads, or other dangerous chemical vehicles or combustible substances such as coal exist around dangerous chemical vehicles in the first accident, the domino effect of the accident can be caused, and more serious damage can be caused. In the prior art, risk calculation aiming at the problem of planning the path of the dangerous chemical substance vehicle focuses on the result evaluation of the occurrence of a traffic accident on the dangerous chemical substance vehicle, influence factors are focused on conventional factors such as road conditions, weather and population, and the domino effect of the accident is not considered.
Disclosure of Invention
One object of the present invention is: planning the path of the hazardous chemical substance vehicle, considering the risk of causing a domino effect in the transportation process of the hazardous chemical substance vehicle and the traditional road risk, reducing the possibility of causing the domino accident effect due to the accident, and providing a modeling method for planning the path of the hazardous chemical substance vehicle based on the dynamic domino risk.
The technical scheme adopted by the invention for solving the technical problems is as follows: the hazardous chemical substance vehicle path planning modeling method based on the dynamic domino risk comprises the following steps:
acquiring a road network and path planning related parameters between a dangerous chemical substance vehicle transportation starting point s and a terminal point e;
the path planning related parameters include: the length of each road section of the road network, the probability of traffic accidents of each road section, the accident type, the accident weight and the influence radius of each type and the population density around the accident influence range;
the accident types include: leaks, accidents only, fires and explosions;
converting the road network into a undirected network node map, connecting the communication road sections among the nodes by taking road junction points as nodes in the undirected network node map, and setting the road length among the nodes as the basic weight of the road sections among the nodes;
and establishing a hazardous chemical substance vehicle path planning model based on dynamic domino risks based on the domino road risk value.
Further, the domino road risk value is derived based on the road risk value and the domino risk value.
Further, the road risk value is:
Figure BDA0001728641980000022
wherein R is(i，j)' is a risk value of a road section i-j, wherein i represents a starting node mark number, j represents an ending node mark number, and l represents a road length of the road section i-j; p represents the probability of a traffic accident occurring on a road segment i-j; r is1For the influence range of the leakage of Accident 1, m1The weight occupied by the leakage for accident 1; r is2For Accident 2 only the accident influence range, m2Accident 2 is only weighted by accident; r is3Accident 3 fire impact Range, m3Accident 3, the fire, by weight; r is4For Accident 4 explosion impact Range, m4Weight accident 4 explosion; pop is the impact of an accidentPopulation density around the range.
Further, the formula for calculating the domino risk value is as follows:
Figure BDA0001728641980000021
wherein l' is the length of the section which can cause domino accidents of the section i-j; l is the length of the i-j road section; r is the influence radius of the accident; q is a correction factor;
PDthe probability of dynamic domino risk accident is the probability of accident occurrence of a hazard source B if a hazardous chemical substance vehicle A has an accident;
Figure BDA0001728641980000031
a danger source B exists near the i-j road section, and when the dangerous chemical vehicle A passes through the i-j road section, the moving range of the distance d between the dangerous chemical vehicle A and the B along with the A is (d)1，d2) (ii) a r represents the radius of the accident influence range of the dangerous chemical substance vehicle A;
the dangerous chemical substance vehicle A enters the range of l', when d is less than r, the dangerous source B is in the influence range of the accident of the dangerous chemical substance vehicle A, PD＞0；
When the dangerous chemical substance vehicle A is positioned on the other road sections d & gt r, the dangerous source B is out of the influence range of the accident occurrence of A, and P isD＝0。
Further, the calculating the domino road risk value:
when a fire accident and an explosion accident occur, the risk of causing a domino accident exists, and a calculation formula of a road risk value added with the domino risk, namely the domino road risk value is obtained by combining the formulas (3-1), (3-2) and (3-3) and is as follows:
Figure BDA0001728641980000032
wherein: r(i，j)"representing the i-j road segment risk of joining domino riskValue, < l >'1Accident 3, the length of the section where the fire may cause domino accidents; l'2The length of the section of the road where the accident 4 explosion may cause a domino accident; pD1Probability of a fire causing domino accident for the road segment 3; pD2Probability of domino accident caused by explosion 4 in the road section; r is5(ii) domino accident impact range for accident 3 fire; r is6(ii) domino accident impact range due to accident 4 explosion; pop is the population density around the accident impact area.
Further, the dynamic domino-risk hazardous chemical vehicle path planning model is:
Figure BDA0001728641980000041
the model takes the minimum risk value for realizing the planned path as an objective function;
the first constraint condition represents that the path starts from a starting point i-s and ends when a terminating node j-e, and the basis weights of the road sections passing through the path are accumulated;
the second constraint condition represents that the road section basis weight is constrained by the connectivity matrix D;
the third constraint condition represents the risk value accumulation of the passed road section;
the connectivity matrix D:
Figure BDA0001728641980000042
wherein n is the number of nodes of the undirected network node graph, d (i, j) represents the weight between the nodes i-j, and d (i, j) is 0 if the nodes i-j are not connected.
The substantial effects of the invention are as follows: according to the method, the path planning problem of the hazardous chemical substance is added into the calculation of the dynamic domino risk, the risk of domino effect caused by an accident and the traditional road risk of the hazardous chemical substance vehicle in the transportation process are considered, the possibility of domino accident effect caused by the accident is reduced, the dynamic domino risk-based path planning modeling method for the hazardous chemical substance vehicle is established, and a path planning model for the hazardous chemical substance vehicle with lower risk and higher safety coefficient can be established by using the method.
Drawings
Fig. 1 is a directed network node diagram according to an embodiment of the present invention.
FIG. 2 is a diagram of a model for dynamic domino risk calculation according to the present invention.
Detailed Description
The technical solution of the present invention is further specifically described below by way of specific examples in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.
The hazardous chemical substance vehicle path planning modeling method based on the dynamic domino risk comprises the following steps:
step 1: acquiring a road network and path planning related parameters between a dangerous chemical substance vehicle transportation starting point s and a terminal point e;
the path planning related parameters include: the length of each road section of the road network, the probability of traffic accidents of each road section, the accident type, the accident weight and the influence radius of each type and the population density around the accident influence range;
in the traditional calculation of the road risk value, the influence area of accidents is considered, and accidents occurring in the transportation process of hazardous chemicals can be divided into four types, namely leakage, accident, fire and explosion, which respectively correspond to an accident 1, an accident 2, an accident 3 and an accident 4;
step 2: as shown in fig. 1, the road network is converted into a undirected network node map, road junctions are used as nodes in the undirected network node map to connect the communication road segments between the nodes, and the road length between the nodes is set as the basic weight of the road segments between the nodes;
and step 3: calculating a road risk value;
road risk value:
Figure BDA0001728641980000051
wherein R is(i，j)' Risk value for section i-j, i denotes the starting node indexJ represents the end node label, l represents the road length of the road section i-j; p represents the probability of a traffic accident occurring on a road segment i-j; r is1For the influence range of the leakage of Accident 1, m1The weight occupied by the leakage for accident 1; r is2For Accident 2 only the accident influence range, m2Accident 2 is only weighted by accident; r is3Accident 3 fire impact Range, m3Accident 3, the fire, by weight; r is4For Accident 4 explosion impact Range, m4Weight accident 4 explosion; pop is the population density around the accident impact area.
And 4, step 4: calculating a domino risk value;
the formula for calculating the domino risk value is:
Figure BDA0001728641980000061
as shown in fig. 2, l' is the length of the section i-j that may cause a domino accident; l is the length of the i-j road section; r is the influence radius of the accident; q is a correction factor; coefficient in calculating domino risk value
Figure BDA0001728641980000062
Dividing the length l' of the section which can cause the domino accident by the total length l of the section, namely averaging the risks of the section which can cause the domino accident on the whole section.
PDThe probability of dynamic domino risk accident is the probability of accident occurrence of a hazard source B if a hazardous chemical substance vehicle A has an accident;
Figure BDA0001728641980000063
a danger source B exists near the i-j road section, and when the dangerous chemical vehicle A passes through the i-j road section, the moving range of the distance d between the dangerous chemical vehicle A and the B along with the A is (d)1，d2) (ii) a r represents the radius of the accident influence range of the dangerous chemical substance vehicle A;
the dangerous chemical substance vehicle A enters the range of l', when d is less than rThe dangerous source B is in the influence range of the accident of the dangerous chemical vehicle A, PD＞0；
When the dangerous chemical substance vehicle A is positioned on the other road sections d & gt r, the dangerous source B is out of the influence range of the accident occurrence of A, and P isD＝0。
And 5: calculating a domino road risk value;
when a fire accident and an explosion accident occur, the risk of causing a domino accident exists, and a calculation formula of a road risk value added with the domino risk, namely the domino road risk value is obtained by combining the formulas (3-1), (3-2) and (3-3) and is as follows:
Figure BDA0001728641980000064
wherein: r(i，j)"road segment risk value of i-j, l 'representing risk of joining domino'1Accident 3, the length of the section where the fire may cause domino accidents; l'2The length of the section of the road where the accident 4 explosion may cause a domino accident; pD1Probability of a fire causing domino accident for the road segment 3; pD2Probability of domino accident caused by explosion 4 in the road section; r is5(ii) domino accident impact range for accident 3 fire; r is6(ii) domino accident impact range due to accident 4 explosion; pop is the population density around the accident impact area.
Step 6: and establishing a hazardous chemical substance vehicle path planning model based on the dynamic domino risk based on the domino road risk value.
The planning model of the path of the hazardous chemical substance vehicle with the dynamic domino risk comprises the following steps:
Figure BDA0001728641980000071
the model takes the minimum risk value for realizing the planned path as an objective function;
the first constraint condition represents that the path starts from a starting point i-s and ends when a terminating node j-e, and the basis weights of the road sections passing through the path are accumulated;
the second constraint condition represents that the road section basis weight is constrained by the connectivity matrix D;
the third constraint condition represents the risk value accumulation of the passed road section;
the connectivity matrix D:
Figure BDA0001728641980000072
wherein n is the number of nodes of the undirected network node graph, d (i, j) represents the weight between the nodes i-j, and d (i, j) is 0 if the nodes i-j are not connected.
The above-described embodiment is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention, and is not intended to limit the present invention in any way, and other variations and modifications may be made without departing from the scope of the invention as set forth in the claims.

Claims (1)

1.基于动态多米诺风险的危化品车辆路径规划建模方法，其特征在于，包括：1. The path planning modeling method for hazardous chemicals vehicles based on dynamic domino risk, is characterized in that, comprises: 获取危化品车辆运输起始点s与终点e间道路网络以及路径规划相关参数；Obtain the road network and route planning related parameters between the starting point s and the ending point e for the transportation of hazardous chemicals; 所述路径规划相关参数包括：道路网络各路段长度、各路段发生交通事故的概率、事故类型，各类型事故权重及影响半径以及事故影响范围周边的人口密度；The path planning-related parameters include: the length of each road section of the road network, the probability of a traffic accident occurring in each road section, the type of accident, the weight and influence radius of each type of accident, and the population density around the accident influence area; 所述事故类型包括：泄漏、仅事故、火灾以及爆炸；The accident types include: spill, accident only, fire, and explosion; 将所述道路网络转化为无向网络节点图，将道路交汇点作为道路网络中的节点，连接各节点之间连通路段，将各节点之间道路长度设为各节点之间路段的基础权重；Converting the road network into an undirected network node graph, using the road junction as a node in the road network, connecting the connected road sections between the nodes, and setting the length of the road between the nodes as the basic weight of the road section between the nodes; 基于多米诺道路风险值，建立基于动态多米诺风险的危化品车辆路径规划模型；Based on the domino road risk value, a path planning model for hazardous chemicals vehicles based on dynamic domino risk is established; 所述多米诺道路风险值基于道路风险值和多米诺风险值得出；The domino road risk value is derived based on the road risk value and the domino risk value; 所述道路风险值为：The road risk values are: R(i,j)'＝l*p*(m1*πr1 2+m2*πr2 2+m3*πr3 2+m4*πr4 2)*pop (3-1)R (i,j) '=l*p*(m 1 *πr 1 2 +m 2 *πr 2 2 +m 3 *πr 3 2 +m 4 *πr 4 2 )*pop (3-1) 其中R(i,j)'为路段i-j风险值，i表示起始节点标号，j表示终止节点标号，l表示路段i-j道路长度；p表示在路段i-j发生交通事故的概率；r1为事故1泄漏的影响范围,m1为事故1泄漏所占权重；r2为事故2仅事故影响范围，m2为事故2仅事故所占权重；r3事故3火灾影响范围，m3为事故3火灾所占权重；r4为事故4爆炸影响范围，m4为事故4爆炸所占权重；pop为事故影响范围周边的人口密度；where R (i,j) ' is the risk value of the road segment ij, i represents the starting node label, j represents the end node label, l represents the road length of the road segment ij; p represents the probability of a traffic accident in the road segment ij; r 1 is the accident 1 Scope of influence of leakage, m 1 is the weight of accident 1 leakage; r 2 is the affected area of accident 2 only, m 2 is the weight of accident 2 only accident; r 3 is the affected area of accident 3 fire, m 3 is accident 3 fire Occupied weight; r 4 is the explosion affected area of accident 4, m 4 is the weight of accident 4 explosion; pop is the population density around the accident affected area; 所述多米诺风险值的计算公式为：The calculation formula of the domino risk value is:
Figure FDA0003412371240000011
Figure FDA0003412371240000011
 其中，l'为i-j路段可能引起多米诺事故的路段长度；l为i-j路段长度；R为事故的影响半径；Q为修正因子；Among them, l' is the length of the road section i-j that may cause a domino accident; l is the length of the i-j road section; R is the radius of influence of the accident; Q is the correction factor; PD为动态多米诺风险事故概率，是指若危化品车辆A发生事故，引发危险源B发生事故的概率；P D is the dynamic domino risk accident probability, which refers to the probability that if the dangerous chemical vehicle A has an accident, the probability of causing an accident to the danger source B;
Figure FDA0003412371240000021
Figure FDA0003412371240000021
 i-j路段附近存在危险源B，危化品车辆A经过路段i-j时，与B之间的距离d随A的移动变化范围为(d1,d2)；r表示危化品车辆A发生事故影响范围的半径；There is a danger source B near the road section ij. When the hazardous chemical vehicle A passes through the road section ij, the distance d between it and B varies with the movement range of A as (d 1 , d 2 ); r represents the impact of the accident of the hazardous chemical vehicle A. the radius of the range; 危化品车辆A进入l'范围内，当d＜r时，危险源B在危化品车辆A发生事故的影响范围内，PD＞0；Hazardous chemical vehicle A enters the range of l', when d < r, the hazard source B is within the influence scope of the accident of hazardous chemical vehicle A, and P D >0; 当危化品车辆A位于其余路段d＞r时，危险源B在A发生事故的影响范围外，PD＝0；When the hazardous chemicals vehicle A is located in the remaining road sections d>r, the hazard source B is outside the influence range of A's accident, and P D =0; 计算多米诺道路风险值：Calculate Domino's Road VaR: 发生火灾事故与爆炸事故时，存在引起多米诺事故的风险，结合公式(3-1)(3-2)(3-3)，得出加入多米诺风险的道路风险值即多米诺道路风险值的计算公式为：When there is a fire accident or an explosion accident, there is a risk of causing a domino accident. Combined with formula (3-1) (3-2) (3-3), the road risk value added to the domino risk is obtained. The calculation formula of the domino road risk value for:
Figure FDA0003412371240000022
Figure FDA0003412371240000022
 其中：R(i,j)”表示加入多米诺风险的i-j路段风险值，l1'该路段中事故3火灾可能引起多米诺事故的路段长度；l'2该路段中事故4爆炸可能引起多米诺事故的路段长度；PD1为在该路段发生事故3火灾引起多米诺事故的概率；PD2为在该路段发生事故4爆炸引起多米诺事故的概率；r5为事故3火灾引起的多米诺事故影响范围；r6为事故4爆炸引起的多米诺事故影响范围；pop为事故影响范围周边的人口密度；Among them: R (i,j) "represents the risk value of the ij road section with the domino risk added, l 1 ' the length of the road section where the accident 3 fire may cause a domino accident in this road section; l' 2 The accident 4 explosion in this road section may cause a domino accident The length of the road section; P D1 is the probability of a domino accident caused by an accident 3 fire in this road section; P D2 is the probability of a domino accident caused by an accident 4 explosion in this road section; r 5 is the influence range of the domino accident caused by the accident 3 fire; r 6 is the area of influence of the domino accident caused by the explosion of accident 4; pop is the population density around the area of influence of the accident; 所述动态多米诺风险的危化品车辆路径规划模型：The hazardous chemicals vehicle path planning model of the dynamic domino risk:
Figure FDA0003412371240000031
Figure FDA0003412371240000031
 该模型以实现所规划路径的风险值最小为目标函数；The model takes the minimum risk value of the planned path as the objective function; 第一个约束条件表示路径由起始点i＝s开始，到终止节点j＝e时结束，期间所经过路段的基础权重累加；The first constraint indicates that the path starts from the starting point i=s and ends when the end node j=e, and the basic weights of the road segments passed during the period are accumulated; 第二个约束条件表示路段基础权重受连通矩阵D约束；The second constraint indicates that the basic weight of the link is constrained by the connectivity matrix D; 第三个约束条件表示所经过路段的风险值累加；The third constraint represents the accumulation of the risk value of the road segment passed; 所述连通矩阵D：The connectivity matrix D:
Figure FDA0003412371240000032
Figure FDA0003412371240000032
 其中，n为所述无向网络节点图的节点数，d(i,j)表示节点i-j之间的权重，若i-j之间不连通则d(i,j)为0。Wherein, n is the number of nodes in the undirected network node graph, d(i,j) represents the weight between nodes i-j, and d(i,j) is 0 if there is no connection between i-j.
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