CN106204392A - Environment risk source early warning system - Google Patents

Abstract

The invention discloses environment risk source early warning system, including data acquisition unit, data server, risk real-time evaluation system and alarm, described data acquisition unit for gathering the Real-time Monitoring Data of each sensing point on environment risk source, is provided with the environment risk source information database for recording each environment risk source essential information, record has the threshold data storehouse of threshold value of Real-time Monitoring Data corresponding to each sensing point in described data server；Described risk real-time evaluation system for carrying out security evaluation, the risk of computing environment risk source to environment risk source；Described alarm is for carrying out selectivity warning according to the risk of described environment risk source.Present invention achieves the risk assessment to environment risk source and early warning, monitoring personnel can be helped to take counter-measure the most in time, loss risk accidents caused is near minimum.

Description

Environment risk source early warning system

Technical field

The present invention relates to environment risk source early warning technology field, be specifically related to environment risk source early warning system.

Background technology

There is complexity and uncertainty in Environment Pollution Event itself, thus environmental risk warning is a coverage area Extensively, multiple environmental factors (water body, air, soil, ecosystem), the diversified complex system of chemical factors are related to.But, by In the time that suddenly accident occurs, space, scale, process, natural background, the uncertainty of receptor, existing risk mould Type still lacks the original research of the transportation of pollutant conversion process to concrete survey region, to model result checking and system collection Become to pay attention to deficiency；Meanwhile, in terms of risk warning model, relate to the model wretched insufficiency of ecosystem Risk-warning.At environment Research and application in terms of contamination accident early warning platform are still weak, particularly in terms of the hardware support such as technology and equipment the most not Adapt to contamination accident is carried out the actual demand of early warning, it is impossible to really realize the effective early warning to contamination accident.Existing ring Environment pollution event warning index mostly is the broad perspectives index for little range areas Risk-warning, and existing work is mainly in dirt The warning index aspect of dye event proposes the scheme of principle, it is impossible to meet the ecological actual need with healthy early warning of contamination accident Ask.How for the pollutant in varying environment medium, level of pollution with ecological carry out rapid screening with health effect and set up Reasonably pre-warning indexes system, still lacks corresponding technological means.

Summary of the invention

For the problems referred to above, the present invention provides environment risk source early warning system.

The purpose of the present invention realizes by the following technical solutions:

Environment risk source early warning system, including data acquisition unit, data server, risk real-time evaluation system and warning Device, described data acquisition unit is for gathering the Real-time Monitoring Data of each sensing point on environment risk source, in described data server Be provided with the environment risk source information database for recording each environment risk source essential information, record has corresponding to each sensing point The threshold data storehouse of threshold value of Real-time Monitoring Data；Described risk real-time evaluation system is for carrying out safety to environment risk source Assessment, the risk of computing environment risk source；Described alarm is for selecting according to the risk of described environment risk source Property report to the police.

Wherein, described alarm is reported to the police more than when presetting risk threshold value in the risk of described environment risk source, The set point of described default risk threshold value is [45%, 55%].

Wherein, described risk real-time evaluation system includes:

(1) evaluation index system generation module, for generating the evaluation criteria system being directed to environment risk source, institute's commentary Valency index system is formulated by the expert group evaluating environment risk source, and it includes destination layer, rule layer and indicator layer, described destination layer Being defined as environment risk source to be assessed, described rule layer includes that probability that environment risk source causes danger, environment risk source are sent out Influence degree after raw danger and three female indexs of uncontrollability, described indicator layer includes referring to corresponding to every son of female index Mark, wherein considers that system is taken safety measures the abatement to risk and control action, and definition uncontrollability is environment risk source The ability characteristics of security failure is made after causing danger；

(2) opinion rating system generation module, for generating the opinion rating system corresponding to evaluation criteria system, described Opinion rating system is formulated by the expert group evaluating environment risk source, and it includes multiple opinion rating, each opinion rating pair Answer a grade fuzzy subset；

(3) quantification of targets module, threshold corresponding in the Real-time Monitoring Data according to each sensing point and threshold data storehouse Value compares result, and the influence degree of corresponding female index is evaluated by antithetical phrase index, and according to the evaluation result amount of carrying out Change；

(4) index weights computing module, calculates female index and the weight vectors of sub-index for reference level fractional analysis；

(5) subordinated-degree matrix builds module, for according to described evaluation criteria system, calculates female index to described grade mould Stick with paste the degree of membership of subset, build the subordinated-degree matrix of female index；

(6) fuzzy overall evaluation result computing module, for according to subordinated-degree matrix and weight vector computation fuzzy synthesis Evaluation result；

(7) risk evaluation module, for according to weight vectors and fuzzy overall evaluation result vector computing environment risk source Risk.

Wherein, described environment risk source essential information include environmental risk source name, geographical location information, contact method, Pollutant kind.

Wherein, specifically perform during the running of described quantification of targets module:

If P, D, C represent respectively probability that environment risk source causes danger, environment risk source cause danger after affect journey Degree and uncontrollability, the expert group evaluating environment risk source carries out n evaluation to the quantized value of the sub-index of x-th of female index y The set of quantized obtained isThe final quantization value of the sub-index of x-th of female index y is:

${I_x^y}^{\′}=\frac{{\mathrm{\Σ}}_i^n{I}_{xi}^y}{n},{I_x^y}^{\′}\∈\[0,1\]$

Wherein, described subordinated-degree matrix builds module when calculating female index to the degree of membership of described grade fuzzy subset, tool Body operates below performing:

Definition grade fuzzy subset is { v_j, j=1,2 ..., 5}, and define the influence degree equity for describing female index The membership function of the degree of membership of level fuzzy subset:

Wherein, ρ is the final of the sub-index of x-th of female index y that determined by the expert group expert evaluating environment risk source Quantized value,For grade fuzzy subset { v_j, j=1,2 ..., standard value corresponding for 5},μ is for evaluating ambient wind The expert group in source, the danger certainty factor to described final quantization value；

According to described membership function, construct P, the subordinated-degree matrix R of tri-female indexs of D, C respectively_P,R_D,R_C:

$R_P=\left\{\begin{array}{cccc}{f}_{v_1}\left({I_1^P}^{\′}\right)& f_{v_2}\left({I_1^P}^{\′}\right)& \mathrm{...}& f_{v_5}\left({I_1^P}^{\′}\right)\\ f_{v_1}\left({I_2^P}^{\′}\right)& f_{v_2}\left({I_2^P}^{\′}\right)& \mathrm{...}& f_{v_5}\left({I_2^P}^{\′}\right)\\ .& .& & .\\ .& .& & .\\ .& .& & .\\ f_{v_1}\left({I_{N_P}^P}^{\′}\right)& f_{v_2}\left({I_{N_P}^P}^{\′}\right)& \mathrm{...}& f_{v_5}\left({I_{N_P}^P}^{\′}\right)\end{array}\right.$

$R_D=\left\{\begin{array}{cccc}{f}_{v_1}\left({I_1^D}^{\′}\right)& f_{v_2}\left({I_1^D}^{\′}\right)& \mathrm{...}& f_{v_5}\left({I_1^D}^{\′}\right)\\ f_{v_1}\left({I_2^D}^{\′}\right)& f_{v_2}\left({I_2^D}^{\′}\right)& \mathrm{...}& f_{v_5}\left({I_2^D}^{\′}\right)\\ .& .& & .\\ .& .& & .\\ .& .& & .\\ f_{v_1}\left({I_{N_D}^D}^{\′}\right)& f_{v_2}\left({I_{N_D}^D}^{\′}\right)& \mathrm{...}& f_{v_5}\left({I_{N_D}^D}^{\′}\right)\end{array}\right.$

$R_C=\left\{\begin{array}{cccc}{f}_{v_1}\left({I_1^C}^{\′}\right)& f_{v_2}\left({I_1^C}^{\′}\right)& \mathrm{...}& f_{v_5}\left({I_1^C}^{\′}\right)\\ f_{v_1}\left({I_2^C}^{\′}\right)& f_{v_2}\left({I_2^C}^{\′}\right)& \mathrm{...}& f_{v_5}\left({I_2^C}^{\′}\right)\\ .& .& & .\\ .& .& & .\\ .& .& & .\\ f_{v_1}\left({I_{N_C}^C}^{\′}\right)& f_{v_2}\left({I_{N_C}^C}^{\′}\right)& \mathrm{...}& f_{v_5}\left({I_{N_C}^C}^{\′}\right)\end{array}\right.$

Wherein, N_PRepresent the sub-index number that female index P comprises, N_DRepresent the sub-index number that female index D comprises, N_CTable Show the sub-index number that female index C comprises；

Wherein, the computing formula of described fuzzy overall evaluation result computing module calculating fuzzy overall evaluation result M is:

$M=W*\left(\begin{array}{c}{m}_P*R_P\\ m_D*R_D\\ m_C*R_C\end{array}\right)=(L_1,L_2,...,L_5)$

Wherein, if the weight fuzzy subset corresponding to female index P obtained according to weight vectors, D, C is W={w_P,w_D, w_C, the weight fuzzy subset corresponding to sub-index set under female index P of obtaining according to weight vectors, D, C is respectively m_P、m_D、 m_C, * represents that generalized fuzzy synthesizes computing；

Wherein, when calculating described risk, if grade corresponding to grade fuzzy subset is entered as { H_j, j=1,2 .., 5}, I.e. grade v_jCorresponding numerical value H_j, and grade v_jFrom low paramount time described H_jValue is incremented by, and the computing formula of described risk is:

The invention have the benefit that

(1) by arranging data acquisition unit, data server, risk real-time evaluation system and alarm, it is achieved that to ring The risk assessment of border risk source and early warning, can help monitoring personnel to take counter-measure the most in time, risk accidents be caused Loss near minimum；

(2) membership function of the degree of membership of influence degree In Grade fuzzy subset for describing female index is defined, and Described membership function is utilized to carry out subordinated-degree matrix structure, the degree of membership Normal Distribution calculated, it is to avoid artificial subjectivity The impact of factor, enhances the objectivity of assessment result；

(3) proposing the computing formula of fuzzy overall evaluation result and risk, this computing formula is examined the most all sidedly Consider the factor affecting risk, highlight the impact of safety measure Usefulness Pair systematic risk degree, it is achieved that to environment risk source After-action review, improve system evaluation precision.

Accompanying drawing explanation

The invention will be further described to utilize accompanying drawing, but the embodiment in accompanying drawing does not constitute any limit to the present invention System, for those of ordinary skill in the art, on the premise of not paying creative work, it is also possible to obtain according to the following drawings Other accompanying drawing.

Fig. 1 is the structure connection diagram of the present invention；

Fig. 2 is the structural representation of evaluation criteria system of the present invention.

Reference:

Data acquisition unit 1, data server 2, risk real-time evaluation system 3, alarm 4.

Detailed description of the invention

The invention will be further described with the following Examples.

Embodiment 1

Seeing Fig. 1, Fig. 2, the present embodiment environment risk source early warning system, including data acquisition unit 1, data server 2, wind Danger real-time evaluation system 3 and alarm 4, described data acquisition unit 1 is for gathering the real-time prison of each sensing point on environment risk source Survey data, the environment risk source Information Number for recording each environment risk source essential information is installed in described data server 2 The threshold data storehouse of the threshold value of Real-time Monitoring Data corresponding to each sensing point is had according to storehouse, record；Described risk real-time assessment system System 3 for carrying out security evaluation, the risk of computing environment risk source to environment risk source；Described alarm 4 is for according to institute The risk stating environment risk source carries out selectivity warning.

Wherein, described alarm 4 is reported to the police more than when presetting risk threshold value in the risk of described environment risk source, The setting 45% of described default risk threshold value.

Wherein, described risk real-time evaluation system 3 includes:

(1) evaluation index system generation module, for generating the evaluation criteria system being directed to environment risk source, institute's commentary Valency index system is formulated by the expert group evaluating environment risk source, and it includes destination layer, rule layer and indicator layer, described destination layer Being defined as environment risk source to be assessed, described rule layer includes that probability that environment risk source causes danger, environment risk source are sent out Influence degree after raw danger and three female indexs of uncontrollability, described indicator layer includes referring to corresponding to every son of female index Mark, wherein considers that system is taken safety measures the abatement to risk and control action, and definition uncontrollability is environment risk source The ability characteristics of security failure is made after causing danger；

(2) opinion rating system generation module, for generating the opinion rating system corresponding to evaluation criteria system, described Opinion rating system is formulated by the expert group evaluating environment risk source, and it includes multiple opinion rating, each opinion rating pair Answer a grade fuzzy subset；

(3) quantification of targets module, threshold corresponding in the Real-time Monitoring Data according to each sensing point and threshold data storehouse Value compares result, and the influence degree of corresponding female index is evaluated by antithetical phrase index, and according to the evaluation result amount of carrying out Change；

(4) index weights computing module, calculates female index and the weight vectors of sub-index for reference level fractional analysis；

(5) subordinated-degree matrix builds module, for according to described evaluation criteria system, calculates female index to described grade mould Stick with paste the degree of membership of subset, build the subordinated-degree matrix of female index；

(6) fuzzy overall evaluation result computing module, for according to subordinated-degree matrix and weight vector computation fuzzy synthesis Evaluation result；

(7) risk evaluation module, for according to weight vectors and fuzzy overall evaluation result vector computing environment risk source Risk.

Wherein, described environment risk source essential information include environmental risk source name, geographical location information, contact method, Pollutant kind.

The present embodiment is by arranging data acquisition unit, data server, risk real-time evaluation system and alarm, it is achieved that Risk assessment and early warning to environment risk source, can help monitoring personnel to take counter-measure the most in time, by risk accidents The loss caused is near minimum.

Embodiment 2

Seeing Fig. 1, Fig. 2, the present embodiment environment risk source early warning system, including data acquisition unit 1, data server 2, wind Danger real-time evaluation system 3 and alarm 4, described data acquisition unit 1 is for gathering the real-time prison of each sensing point on environment risk source Survey data, the environment risk source Information Number for recording each environment risk source essential information is installed in described data server 2 The threshold data storehouse of the threshold value of Real-time Monitoring Data corresponding to each sensing point is had according to storehouse, record；Described risk real-time assessment system System 3 for carrying out security evaluation, the risk of computing environment risk source to environment risk source；Described alarm 4 is for according to institute The risk stating environment risk source carries out selectivity warning.

Wherein, described alarm 4 is reported to the police more than when presetting risk threshold value in the risk of described environment risk source, The setting 45% of described default risk threshold value.

Wherein, described risk real-time evaluation system 3 includes:

(1) evaluation index system generation module, for generating the evaluation criteria system being directed to environment risk source, institute's commentary Valency index system is formulated by the expert group evaluating environment risk source, and it includes destination layer, rule layer and indicator layer, described destination layer Being defined as environment risk source to be assessed, described rule layer includes that probability that environment risk source causes danger, environment risk source are sent out Influence degree after raw danger and three female indexs of uncontrollability, described indicator layer includes referring to corresponding to every son of female index Mark, wherein considers that system is taken safety measures the abatement to risk and control action, and definition uncontrollability is environment risk source The ability characteristics of security failure is made after causing danger；

(2) opinion rating system generation module, for generating the opinion rating system corresponding to evaluation criteria system, described Opinion rating system is formulated by the expert group evaluating environment risk source, and it includes multiple opinion rating, each opinion rating pair Answer a grade fuzzy subset；

(3) quantification of targets module, threshold corresponding in the Real-time Monitoring Data according to each sensing point and threshold data storehouse Value compares result, and the influence degree of corresponding female index is evaluated by antithetical phrase index, and according to the evaluation result amount of carrying out Change；

(4) index weights computing module, calculates female index and the weight vectors of sub-index for reference level fractional analysis；

(5) subordinated-degree matrix builds module, for according to described evaluation criteria system, calculates female index to described grade mould Stick with paste the degree of membership of subset, build the subordinated-degree matrix of female index；

(6) fuzzy overall evaluation result computing module, for according to subordinated-degree matrix and weight vector computation fuzzy synthesis Evaluation result；

(7) risk evaluation module, for according to weight vectors and fuzzy overall evaluation result vector computing environment risk source Risk.

Wherein, described environment risk source essential information include environmental risk source name, geographical location information, contact method, Pollutant kind.

The present embodiment sets presets risk threshold value as 55%.

Embodiment 3

Seeing Fig. 1, Fig. 2, the present embodiment environment risk source early warning system, including data acquisition unit 1, data server 2, wind Danger real-time evaluation system 3 and alarm 4, described data acquisition unit 1 is for gathering the real-time prison of each sensing point on environment risk source Survey data, the environment risk source Information Number for recording each environment risk source essential information is installed in described data server 2 The threshold data storehouse of the threshold value of Real-time Monitoring Data corresponding to each sensing point is had according to storehouse, record；Described risk real-time assessment system System 3 for carrying out security evaluation, the risk of computing environment risk source to environment risk source；Described alarm 4 is for according to institute The risk stating environment risk source carries out selectivity warning.

Wherein, described alarm 4 is reported to the police more than when presetting risk threshold value in the risk of described environment risk source, The setting 45% of described default risk threshold value.

Wherein, described risk real-time evaluation system 3 includes:

(1) evaluation index system generation module, for generating the evaluation criteria system being directed to environment risk source, institute's commentary Valency index system is formulated by the expert group evaluating environment risk source, and it includes destination layer, rule layer and indicator layer, described destination layer Being defined as environment risk source to be assessed, described rule layer includes that probability that environment risk source causes danger, environment risk source are sent out Influence degree after raw danger and three female indexs of uncontrollability, described indicator layer includes referring to corresponding to every son of female index Mark, wherein considers that system is taken safety measures the abatement to risk and control action, and definition uncontrollability is environment risk source The ability characteristics of security failure is made after causing danger；

(2) opinion rating system generation module, for generating the opinion rating system corresponding to evaluation criteria system, described Opinion rating system is formulated by the expert group evaluating environment risk source, and it includes multiple opinion rating, each opinion rating pair Answer a grade fuzzy subset；

(3) quantification of targets module, threshold corresponding in the Real-time Monitoring Data according to each sensing point and threshold data storehouse Value compares result, and the influence degree of corresponding female index is evaluated by antithetical phrase index, and according to the evaluation result amount of carrying out Change；

(4) index weights computing module, calculates female index and the weight vectors of sub-index for reference level fractional analysis；

(5) subordinated-degree matrix builds module, for according to described evaluation criteria system, calculates female index to described grade mould Stick with paste the degree of membership of subset, build the subordinated-degree matrix of female index；

(6) fuzzy overall evaluation result computing module, for according to subordinated-degree matrix and weight vector computation fuzzy synthesis Evaluation result；

(7) risk evaluation module, for according to weight vectors and fuzzy overall evaluation result vector computing environment risk source Risk.

Wherein, described environment risk source essential information include environmental risk source name, geographical location information, contact method, Pollutant kind.

The present embodiment sets presets risk threshold value as 50%.

Embodiment 4

Seeing Fig. 1, Fig. 2, the present embodiment environment risk source early warning system, including data acquisition unit 1, data server 2, wind Danger real-time evaluation system 3 and alarm 4, described data acquisition unit 1 is for gathering the real-time prison of each sensing point on environment risk source Survey data, the environment risk source Information Number for recording each environment risk source essential information is installed in described data server 2 The threshold data storehouse of the threshold value of Real-time Monitoring Data corresponding to each sensing point is had according to storehouse, record；Described risk real-time assessment system System 3 for carrying out security evaluation, the risk of computing environment risk source to environment risk source；Described alarm 4 is for according to institute The risk stating environment risk source carries out selectivity warning.

Wherein, described alarm 4 is reported to the police more than when presetting risk threshold value in the risk of described environment risk source, The setting 45% of described default risk threshold value.

Wherein, described risk real-time evaluation system 3 includes:

(1) evaluation index system generation module, for generating the evaluation criteria system being directed to environment risk source, institute's commentary Valency index system is formulated by the expert group evaluating environment risk source, and it includes destination layer, rule layer and indicator layer, described destination layer Being defined as environment risk source to be assessed, described rule layer includes that probability that environment risk source causes danger, environment risk source are sent out Influence degree after raw danger and three female indexs of uncontrollability, described indicator layer includes referring to corresponding to every son of female index Mark, wherein considers that system is taken safety measures the abatement to risk and control action, and definition uncontrollability is environment risk source The ability characteristics of security failure is made after causing danger；

(2) opinion rating system generation module, for generating the opinion rating system corresponding to evaluation criteria system, described Opinion rating system is formulated by the expert group evaluating environment risk source, and it includes multiple opinion rating, each opinion rating pair Answer a grade fuzzy subset；

(3) quantification of targets module, threshold corresponding in the Real-time Monitoring Data according to each sensing point and threshold data storehouse Value compares result, and the influence degree of corresponding female index is evaluated by antithetical phrase index, and according to the evaluation result amount of carrying out Change；

(4) index weights computing module, calculates female index and the weight vectors of sub-index for reference level fractional analysis；

(5) subordinated-degree matrix builds module, for according to described evaluation criteria system, calculates female index to described grade mould Stick with paste the degree of membership of subset, build the subordinated-degree matrix of female index；

(6) fuzzy overall evaluation result computing module, for according to subordinated-degree matrix and weight vector computation fuzzy synthesis Evaluation result；

(7) risk evaluation module, for according to weight vectors and fuzzy overall evaluation result vector computing environment risk source Risk.

Wherein, described environment risk source essential information include environmental risk source name, geographical location information, contact method, Pollutant kind.

Wherein, specifically perform during the running of described quantification of targets module: set P, D, C and represent that environment risk source is caused danger respectively Probability, environment risk source cause danger after influence degree and uncontrollability, evaluate environment risk source expert group mother is referred to The quantized value of the sub-index of x-th of mark y carries out n time evaluating the set of quantized obtainedFemale The final quantization value of the sub-index of x-th of index y is:

${I_x^y}^{\′}=\frac{{\mathrm{\Σ}}_i^n{I}_{xi}^y}{n},{I_x^y}^{\′}\∈\[0,1\]$

Wherein, described subordinated-degree matrix builds the module computing environment risk source degree of membership to described grade fuzzy subset Time, the following operation of concrete execution:

Definition grade fuzzy subset is { v_j, j=1,2 ..., 5}, and define the influence degree equity for describing female index The membership function of the degree of membership of level fuzzy subset:

Wherein, ρ is the final of the sub-index of x-th of female index y that determined by the expert group expert evaluating environment risk source Quantized value,For grade fuzzy subset { v_j, j=1,2 ..., standard value corresponding for 5},μ is for evaluating ambient wind The expert group in source, the danger certainty factor to described final quantization value；

According to described membership function, construct P, the subordinated-degree matrix R of tri-female indexs of D, C respectively_P,R_D,R_C:

$R_P=\left\{\begin{array}{cccc}{f}_{v_1}\left({I_1^P}^{\′}\right)& f_{v_2}\left({I_1^P}^{\′}\right)& \mathrm{...}& f_{v_5}\left({I_1^P}^{\′}\right)\\ f_{v_1}\left({I_2^P}^{\′}\right)& f_{v_2}\left({I_2^P}^{\′}\right)& \mathrm{...}& f_{v_5}\left({I_2^P}^{\′}\right)\\ .& .& & .\\ .& .& & .\\ .& .& & .\\ f_{v_1}\left({I_{N_P}^P}^{\′}\right)& f_{v_2}\left({I_{N_P}^P}^{\′}\right)& \mathrm{...}& f_{v_5}\left({I_{N_P}^P}^{\′}\right)\end{array}\right.$

$R_D=\left\{\begin{array}{cccc}{f}_{v_1}\left({I_1^D}^{\′}\right)& f_{v_2}\left({I_1^D}^{\′}\right)& \mathrm{...}& f_{v_5}\left({I_1^D}^{\′}\right)\\ f_{v_1}\left({I_2^D}^{\′}\right)& f_{v_2}\left({I_2^D}^{\′}\right)& \mathrm{...}& f_{v_5}\left({I_2^D}^{\′}\right)\\ .& .& & .\\ .& .& & .\\ .& .& & .\\ f_{v_1}\left({I_{N_D}^D}^{\′}\right)& f_{v_2}\left({I_{N_D}^D}^{\′}\right)& \mathrm{...}& f_{v_5}\left({I_{N_D}^D}^{\′}\right)\end{array}\right.$

$R_C=\left\{\begin{array}{cccc}{f}_{v_1}\left({I_1^C}^{\′}\right)& f_{v_2}\left({I_1^C}^{\′}\right)& \mathrm{...}& f_{v_5}\left({I_1^C}^{\′}\right)\\ f_{v_1}\left({I_2^C}^{\′}\right)& f_{v_2}\left({I_2^C}^{\′}\right)& \mathrm{...}& f_{v_5}\left({I_2^C}^{\′}\right)\\ .& .& & .\\ .& .& & .\\ .& .& & .\\ f_{v_1}\left({I_{N_C}^C}^{\′}\right)& f_{v_2}\left({I_{N_C}^C}^{\′}\right)& \mathrm{...}& f_{v_5}\left({I_{N_C}^C}^{\′}\right)\end{array}\right.$

Wherein, N_PRepresent the sub-index number that female index P comprises, N_DRepresent the sub-index number that female index D comprises, N_CTable Show the sub-index number that female index C comprises；

What the present embodiment defined the degree of membership of the influence degree In Grade fuzzy subset for describing female index is subordinate to letter Number, and utilizes described membership function to carry out subordinated-degree matrix structure, the degree of membership Normal Distribution calculated, it is to avoid artificial The impact of subjective factors, enhances the objectivity of assessment result.

Embodiment 5

Seeing Fig. 1, Fig. 2, the present embodiment environment risk source early warning system, including data acquisition unit 1, data server 2, wind Danger real-time evaluation system 3 and alarm 4, described data acquisition unit 1 is for gathering the real-time prison of each sensing point on environment risk source Survey data, the environment risk source Information Number for recording each environment risk source essential information is installed in described data server 2 The threshold data storehouse of the threshold value of Real-time Monitoring Data corresponding to each sensing point is had according to storehouse, record；Described risk real-time assessment system System 3 for carrying out security evaluation, the risk of computing environment risk source to environment risk source；Described alarm 4 is for according to institute The risk stating environment risk source carries out selectivity warning.

Wherein, described alarm 4 is reported to the police more than when presetting risk threshold value in the risk of described environment risk source, The setting 45% of described default risk threshold value.

Wherein, described risk real-time evaluation system 3 includes:

(1) evaluation index system generation module, for generating the evaluation criteria system being directed to environment risk source, institute's commentary Valency index system is formulated by the expert group evaluating environment risk source, and it includes destination layer, rule layer and indicator layer, described destination layer Being defined as environment risk source to be assessed, described rule layer includes that probability that environment risk source causes danger, environment risk source are sent out Influence degree after raw danger and three female indexs of uncontrollability, described indicator layer includes referring to corresponding to every son of female index Mark, wherein considers that system is taken safety measures the abatement to risk and control action, and definition uncontrollability is environment risk source The ability characteristics of security failure is made after causing danger；

(2) opinion rating system generation module, for generating the opinion rating system corresponding to evaluation criteria system, described Opinion rating system is formulated by the expert group evaluating environment risk source, and it includes multiple opinion rating, each opinion rating pair Answer a grade fuzzy subset；

(3) quantification of targets module, threshold corresponding in the Real-time Monitoring Data according to each sensing point and threshold data storehouse Value compares result, and the influence degree of corresponding female index is evaluated by antithetical phrase index, and according to the evaluation result amount of carrying out Change；

(4) index weights computing module, calculates female index and the weight vectors of sub-index for reference level fractional analysis；

(5) subordinated-degree matrix builds module, for according to described evaluation criteria system, calculates female index to described grade mould Stick with paste the degree of membership of subset, build the subordinated-degree matrix of female index；

(6) fuzzy overall evaluation result computing module, for according to subordinated-degree matrix and weight vector computation fuzzy synthesis Evaluation result；

(7) risk evaluation module, for according to weight vectors and fuzzy overall evaluation result vector computing environment risk source Risk.

Wherein, described environment risk source essential information include environmental risk source name, geographical location information, contact method, Pollutant kind.

Wherein, specifically perform during the running of described quantification of targets module: set P, D, C and represent that environment risk source is caused danger respectively Probability, environment risk source cause danger after influence degree and uncontrollability, evaluate environment risk source expert group mother is referred to The quantized value of the sub-index of x-th of mark y carries out n time evaluating the set of quantized obtainedFemale The final quantization value of the sub-index of x-th of index y is:

${I_x^y}^{\′}=\frac{{\mathrm{\Σ}}_i^n{I}_{xi}^y}{n},{I_x^y}^{\′}\∈\[0,1\]$

Wherein, described subordinated-degree matrix builds the module computing environment risk source degree of membership to described grade fuzzy subset Time, the following operation of concrete execution:

Definition grade fuzzy subset is { v_j, j=1,2 ..., 5}, and define the influence degree equity for describing female index The membership function of the degree of membership of level fuzzy subset:

Wherein, ρ is the final of the sub-index of x-th of female index y that determined by the expert group expert evaluating environment risk source Quantized value,For grade fuzzy subset { v_j, j=1,2 ..., standard value corresponding for 5},μ is for evaluating ambient wind The expert group in source, the danger certainty factor to described final quantization value；

According to described membership function, construct P, the subordinated-degree matrix R of tri-female indexs of D, C respectively_P,R_D,R_C:

$R_P=\left\{\begin{array}{cccc}{f}_{v_1}\left({I_1^P}^{\′}\right)& f_{v_2}\left({I_1^P}^{\′}\right)& \mathrm{...}& f_{v_5}\left({I_1^P}^{\′}\right)\\ f_{v_1}\left({I_2^P}^{\′}\right)& f_{v_2}\left({I_2^P}^{\′}\right)& \mathrm{...}& f_{v_5}\left({I_2^P}^{\′}\right)\\ .& .& & .\\ .& .& & .\\ .& .& & .\\ f_{v_1}\left({I_{N_P}^P}^{\′}\right)& f_{v_2}\left({I_{N_P}^P}^{\′}\right)& \mathrm{...}& f_{v_5}\left({I_{N_P}^P}^{\′}\right)\end{array}\right.$

$R_D=\left\{\begin{array}{cccc}{f}_{v_1}\left({I_1^D}^{\′}\right)& f_{v_2}\left({I_1^D}^{\′}\right)& \mathrm{...}& f_{v_5}\left({I_1^D}^{\′}\right)\\ f_{v_1}\left({I_2^D}^{\′}\right)& f_{v_2}\left({I_2^D}^{\′}\right)& \mathrm{...}& f_{v_5}\left({I_2^D}^{\′}\right)\\ .& .& & .\\ .& .& & .\\ .& .& & .\\ f_{v_1}\left({I_{N_D}^D}^{\′}\right)& f_{v_2}\left({I_{N_D}^D}^{\′}\right)& \mathrm{...}& f_{v_5}\left({I_{N_D}^D}^{\′}\right)\end{array}\right.$

$R_C=\left\{\begin{array}{cccc}{f}_{v_1}\left({I_1^C}^{\′}\right)& f_{v_2}\left({I_1^C}^{\′}\right)& \mathrm{...}& f_{v_5}\left({I_1^C}^{\′}\right)\\ f_{v_1}\left({I_2^C}^{\′}\right)& f_{v_2}\left({I_2^C}^{\′}\right)& \mathrm{...}& f_{v_5}\left({I_2^C}^{\′}\right)\\ .& .& & .\\ .& .& & .\\ .& .& & .\\ f_{v_1}\left({I_{N_C}^C}^{\′}\right)& f_{v_2}\left({I_{N_C}^C}^{\′}\right)& \mathrm{...}& f_{v_5}\left({I_{N_C}^C}^{\′}\right)\end{array}\right.$

Wherein, N_PRepresent the sub-index number that female index P comprises, N_DRepresent the sub-index number that female index D comprises, N_CTable Show the sub-index number that female index C comprises；

Wherein, the computing formula of described fuzzy overall evaluation result computing module calculating fuzzy overall evaluation result M is:

$M=W*\left(\begin{array}{c}{m}_P*R_P\\ m_D*R_D\\ m_C*R_C\end{array}\right)=(L_1,L_2,...,L_5)$

Wherein, if the weight fuzzy subset corresponding to female index P obtained according to weight vectors, D, C is W={w_P,w_D, w_C, the weight fuzzy subset corresponding to sub-index set under female index P of obtaining according to weight vectors, D, C is respectively m_P、m_D、 m_C, * represents that generalized fuzzy synthesizes computing；

Wherein, when calculating described risk, if grade corresponding to grade fuzzy subset is entered as { H_j, j=1,2 .., 5}, I.e. grade v_jCorresponding numerical value H_j, and grade v_jFrom low paramount time described H_jValue is incremented by, and the computing formula of described risk is:

On the basis of the present embodiment is based on embodiment 4, continue to propose the calculating of fuzzy overall evaluation result and risk Formula, this computing formula considers the factor affecting risk the most all sidedly, highlights safety measure Usefulness Pair system wind The impact of danger degree, it is achieved that the after-action review to environment risk source, improves system evaluation precision.

Last it should be noted that, above example is only in order to illustrate technical scheme, rather than the present invention is protected Protecting the restriction of scope, although having made to explain to the present invention with reference to preferred embodiment, those of ordinary skill in the art should Work as understanding, technical scheme can be modified or equivalent, without deviating from the reality of technical solution of the present invention Matter and scope.

Claims (8)

1. environment risk source early warning system, it is characterised in that include data acquisition unit, data server, risk real-time assessment system System and alarm, described data acquisition unit is for gathering the Real-time Monitoring Data of each sensing point on environment risk source, described data Be provided with in server the environment risk source information database for recording each environment risk source essential information, record have corresponding to The threshold data storehouse of the threshold value of the Real-time Monitoring Data of each sensing point；Described risk real-time evaluation system is for environment risk source Carry out security evaluation, the risk of computing environment risk source；Described alarm is for the risk according to described environment risk source Carry out selectivity warning.

Environment risk source early warning system the most according to claim 1, it is characterised in that described alarm is in described ambient wind Danger source risk more than preset risk threshold value time reports to the police, the set point of described default risk threshold value be [45%, 55%].

Environment risk source early warning system the most according to claim 1, it is characterised in that described risk real-time evaluation system bag Include:

(1) evaluation index system generation module, for generating the evaluation criteria system being directed to environment risk source, described evaluation refers to Mark system is formulated by the expert group evaluating environment risk source, and it includes destination layer, rule layer and indicator layer, and described destination layer defines For environment risk source to be assessed, described rule layer includes that probability that environment risk source causes danger, environment risk source are endangered Influence degree behind danger and three female indexs of uncontrollability, described indicator layer includes the every sub-index corresponding to female index, its Middle consideration system is taken safety measures the abatement to risk and control action, and definition uncontrollability is that environment risk source is endangered The ability characteristics of security failure is made behind danger；

(2) opinion rating system generation module, for generating the opinion rating system corresponding to evaluation criteria system, described evaluation Hierarchical system is formulated by the expert group evaluating environment risk source, and it includes multiple opinion rating, each opinion rating correspondence one Individual grade fuzzy subset；

(3) quantification of targets module, threshold value corresponding in the Real-time Monitoring Data according to each sensing point and threshold data storehouse is entered Row comparative result, the influence degree of corresponding female index is evaluated, and is quantified according to evaluation result by antithetical phrase index；

(4) index weights computing module, calculates female index and the weight vectors of sub-index for reference level fractional analysis；

(5) subordinated-degree matrix builds module, for according to described evaluation criteria system, calculates female index son fuzzy to described grade The degree of membership of collection, builds the subordinated-degree matrix of female index；

(6) fuzzy overall evaluation result computing module, for according to subordinated-degree matrix and weight vector computation fuzzy overall evaluation Result；

(7) risk evaluation module, for according to weight vectors and the wind of fuzzy overall evaluation result vector computing environment risk source Danger degree.

Environment risk source early warning system the most according to claim 1, it is characterised in that described environment risk source essential information Including environmental risk source name, geographical location information, contact method, pollutant kind.

Environment risk source early warning system the most according to claim 3, it is characterised in that during the running of described quantification of targets module Concrete execution:

If P, D, C represent respectively probability that environment risk source causes danger, environment risk source cause danger after influence degree and Uncontrollability, the expert group of evaluation environment risk source carries out n evaluation to the quantized value of the sub-index of x-th of female index y and obtains Set of quantized beY=P, D, C, the final quantization value of the sub-index of x-th of female index y is:

。

Environment risk source early warning system the most according to claim 5, it is characterised in that described subordinated-degree matrix builds module When calculating female index to the degree of membership of described grade fuzzy subset, concrete perform following operation:

Definition grade fuzzy subset is { v_j, j=1,2 ..., 5}, and define the influence degree In Grade mould for describing female index The membership function of the degree of membership of paste subset:

Wherein, ρ is the final quantization of the sub-index of x-th of female index y determined by the expert group expert evaluating environment risk source Value,For grade fuzzy subset { v_j, j=1,2 ..., standard value corresponding for 5},μ is for evaluating environmental risk The expert group in the source certainty factor to described final quantization value；

According to described membership function, construct P, the subordinated-degree matrix R of tri-female indexs of D, C respectively_P,R_D,R_C:

Wherein, N_PRepresent the sub-index number that female index P comprises, N_DRepresent the sub-index number that female index D comprises, N_CRepresent mother The sub-index number that index C comprises.

Environment risk source early warning system the most according to claim 6, it is characterised in that described fuzzy overall evaluation result meter The computing formula calculating module calculating fuzzy overall evaluation result M is:

Wherein, if the weight fuzzy subset corresponding to female index P obtained according to weight vectors, D, C is W={w_P,w_D,w_C, root The weight fuzzy subset corresponding to sub-index set under female index P of obtaining according to weight vectors, D, C is respectively m_P、m_D、m_C, * table Show that generalized fuzzy synthesizes computing.

Environment risk source early warning system the most according to claim 7, it is characterised in that when calculating described risk, if etc. Level grade corresponding to fuzzy subset is entered as { H_j, j=1,2 .., 5}, i.e. grade v_jCorresponding numerical value H_j, and grade v_jFrom low paramount Shi Suoshu H_jValue is incremented by, and the computing formula of described risk is: