- Amsterdam, Noord-Holland, Netherlands
Arjan Blokland
NSCR, Criminology, Department Member
- Senior-researcher Netherlands Institute for the Study of Crime and Law Enforcement, Amsterdam and full professor at t... moreSenior-researcher Netherlands Institute for the Study of Crime and Law Enforcement, Amsterdam and full professor at the Institute of Criminal Law and Criminology, Leiden Law School, Leiden University, The Netherlands.edit
The goal of this study is to examine risk factors for delinquency in emerging adulthood, highlighting any differences between those generally found for adolescent delinquent behaviour. The importance of examining risk factors for this age... more
The goal of this study is to examine risk factors for delinquency in emerging adulthood, highlighting any differences between those generally found for adolescent delinquent behaviour. The importance of examining risk factors for this age group is discussed, given recent changes in the nature of the early adult years, and the fact that, although the majority of adolescent offenders desist during adulthood, there remain a high number of offenders in the early adult years. Risk effects for self-reported delinquency were examined in a general population sample of emerging adults (age 18–24). A range of risk factor measures, such as peer delinquency, need for autonomy, parental support and substance use, were used to predict reporting of at least one arrestable offence in a six-month period beginning a year later. In the full model, parental social support, alcohol use and a measure of self-control, aggression and criminal attitude all significantly predicted delinquency. We conclude th...
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Understanding how bicultural and monocultural individuals are oriented toward the cultures they come into frequent contact with can increase insights into their adaptation and well-being. Previous research has shown a relation between... more
Understanding how bicultural and monocultural individuals are oriented toward the cultures they come into frequent contact with can increase insights into their adaptation and well-being. Previous research has shown a relation between culture and mental state reading in the form of the cultural in-group effect, which is defined as the advantage in reading mental states from the own cultural group compared with other groups. Thus, orientation toward cultures can be assessed not only in self-reported behavioral and psychological acculturation but also in the domain of social–cognitive abilities. The aim of the current research is to gain insight into acculturation in the social–cognitive ability of mental state reading. In addition, it explores how this facet of acculturation is related to the more traditionally studied behavioral and psychological acculturation. Cross-cultural mental state reading, language and possession of friends (behavioral acculturation), and cultural identifica...
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Objectives:Test whether Moffitt’s theory of adolescence-limited offenders, which contends that as young people enter adult roles they exit the “maturity gap” of adolescence and desist from crime, still applies given the changed nature of... more
Objectives:Test whether Moffitt’s theory of adolescence-limited offenders, which contends that as young people enter adult roles they exit the “maturity gap” of adolescence and desist from crime, still applies given the changed nature of the early adult years. Examine whether spending time in adult roles remains a driver of desistance, and whether today’s emerging adults are at risk of experiencing a maturity gap between how adult they feel and the reality of their social situation.Methods:Using longitudinal data from a Dutch general population sample aged 18 to 24 years, fixed-effects models were run examining the effect of within-person changes in time spent in adult roles on self-reported delinquency and moderation of this effect by feelings of adultness.Results:The more time spent in adult roles, the less delinquency respondents consequently reported. This effect was moderated: When spending more time in adult roles and feeling more adult, higher delinquency was reported than wh...
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Early-onset offending is generally recognized as a risk factor for persistent criminal behavior. However, variation in long-term delinquent development among early-onset offenders remains rather underexplored and poorly understood. We,... more
Early-onset offending is generally recognized as a risk factor for persistent criminal behavior. However, variation in long-term delinquent development among early-onset offenders remains rather underexplored and poorly understood. We, therefore, used multitrajectory modeling to identify distinct subgroups of early-onset offenders ( n = 708) based on the frequency of offending across several types of offenses up to age 25. We used multinomial regression analysis to characterize subgroups on gender, ethnicity, and childhood neighborhood characteristics. Six offender subgroups could be distinguished in our data: nonrecidivists (51%), sporadic recidivists (25%), and low-rate (8%), moderate-rate (10%), high-rate adult-peaked (3%), and high-rate adolescence-peaked recidivists (3%). Males, minorities, and children from disadvantaged neighborhoods were more likely to follow re-offending trajectories characterized by increased levels of property crime, vandalism, and violent and sexual offe...
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Life-course theories expect imprisonment to negatively influence a person’s employment prospects. Incarceration not only instantaneously interrupts a number of life-course domains but may also reduce future opportunities to reconnect to... more
Life-course theories expect imprisonment to negatively influence a person’s employment prospects. Incarceration not only instantaneously interrupts a number of life-course domains but may also reduce future opportunities to reconnect to them. This article analyzes the effects of incarceration on employment by using observational data on the employment careers from age 23 up to age 32 in 270 high-risk males. All men had been treated for delinquency and problematic behavior in a juvenile justice institution in the Netherlands. First, we investigate whether specific employment trajectories can be distinguished within the overall employment pattern in this sample. Second, controlling for selection into both incarceration and low-employment participation, we investigate the effect of incarceration on future employment over and above the effect of being convicted.
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Objectives This study investigates the effects of the length of imprisonment on reoffending after release. Methods To account for endogeneity from omitted variables that influence both sentencing decisions and the likelihood to reoffend,... more
Objectives This study investigates the effects of the length of imprisonment on reoffending after release. Methods To account for endogeneity from omitted variables that influence both sentencing decisions and the likelihood to reoffend, this study uses variation in the proclivity to impose lengthier sentences across judges to which criminal cases are randomly assigned within district courts in the Netherlands. Using administrative data on all adult offenders convicted to short-term imprisonment (≤ 1 year) by a single-sitting judge in the Netherlands in 2012, we estimate multiple instrumental variable models. Results The results indicate that an increase in imprisonment length significantly reduces the amount of offenses committed after release, whereas we only find small and statistically non-significant estimates for the probability to recidivate. Conclusions We find evidence for a specific preventative effect of longer prison terms on the post-release reoffending frequency, but l...
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Since the early 1990s, increasing attention is being paid to the impact of life course transitions on criminal behavior. However, individuals’ life courses do not evolve in a vacuum but rather in the broad context of societal... more
Since the early 1990s, increasing attention is being paid to the impact of life course transitions on criminal behavior. However, individuals’ life courses do not evolve in a vacuum but rather in the broad context of societal characteristics and developments. In this paper, we analyze whether there is an effect of macroeconomic circumstances on individuals’ criminal careers and whether this effect is conditional on marital status and parenthood. We employ micro-level data from a Dutch large-scale longitudinal study and enrich these with macro-level data. Using logistic panel data models for criminal behavior, we distinguish three types of effects: the macro-effect of experiencing declining economic times, the micro-effect of family composition and the interaction effect, indicating whether the effect of economic decline is differentiated by marital status and parenthood. We quantify economic decline either as an increase in the unemployment rate (objective and backward-looking measu...
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7 CONTEXT .................................................................................................................................................................... 7 OBJECTIVES... more
7 CONTEXT .................................................................................................................................................................... 7 OBJECTIVES ............................................................................................................................................................... 7 CONCLUSIONS ............................................................................................................................................................ 7
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This presentation discussed the findings and methodology used in the comparative analysis of England and Wales Offenders Index data and the Netherlands Criminal Career Life Course Study (CCLS), examining the crime mix patterns of... more
This presentation discussed the findings and methodology used in the comparative analysis of England and Wales Offenders Index data and the Netherlands Criminal Career Life Course Study (CCLS), examining the crime mix patterns of offending and how they change over the life course. We have used a latent transition analysis method which jointly estimated the crime mix patterns (different offenders will commit different selections of offences) and the transition probabilities (offenders move from one pattern to another). Our preliminary results showed that each dataset both have versatile and specialist crime mix offending groups but there are also important differences in the make up of these groups, with regard to the type of offences within these groups. These results were discussed in further detail, along with the issues of how best to carry out analyses upon the two datasets. We also explained the additional problems encountered when comparing the two datasets and how we have att...
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Daders van zedendelicten worden vaak getypeerd op basis van een specifiek delict, bijvoorbeeld het laatst door hen gepleegde zedendelict. Het is onduidelijk of typologieen van deze daders op basis van hun criminele voorgeschiedenis... more
Daders van zedendelicten worden vaak getypeerd op basis van een specifiek delict, bijvoorbeeld het laatst door hen gepleegde zedendelict. Het is onduidelijk of typologieen van deze daders op basis van hun criminele voorgeschiedenis hierbij aansluiten of tot nieuwe inzichten leiden. Deze studie identificeert verschillende typen criminele carrierepatronen onder personen die werden veroordeeld voor een zedendelict en vergelijkt die patronen tussen Belgie en Nederland. We gebruikten hiervoor recent beschikbaar gekomen veroordelingsdata over de criminele voorgeschiedenis van personen die in 1995 in Belgie en in 1997 in Nederland voor een zedendelict werden veroordeeld. In beide datasets konden vier criminele carrierepatronen worden onderscheiden waarvan er drie in beide landen voorkwamen: het ‘persistent gewelddadige generalistische’, ‘jeugdig delinquente’ en het ‘volwassen start’ patroon. Een indeling op basis van criminele carrierepatronen vertoonde weinig overlap met een indeling geba...
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This study examines the relationship between general offending and intimate partner violence (IPV) perpetration in young adulthood, using a Dutch longitudinal study. Young adults were followed over four waves, and self-reported data on... more
This study examines the relationship between general offending and intimate partner violence (IPV) perpetration in young adulthood, using a Dutch longitudinal study. Young adults were followed over four waves, and self-reported data on general offending, IPV perpetration, and a number of individual characteristics were collected. Results of random effects models demonstrated that young adults involved in more diverse offending behavior reported higher levels of different types of IPV perpetration, even when individual factors were taken into account. Moreover, logistic regression analyses showed that general offending was also related to an increased likelihood of continuity in IPV perpetration. Taken together, the findings indicate that it is useful to view IPV perpetration as part of a broader criminal career.
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In recent years, many European countries have taken far-reaching measures to combat the criminal activities of outlaw motorcycle gangs (OMCGs). Meanwhile, empirical research into the ways OMCGs are involved in and influence the crimes of... more
In recent years, many European countries have taken far-reaching measures to combat the criminal activities of outlaw motorcycle gangs (OMCGs). Meanwhile, empirical research into the ways OMCGs are involved in and influence the crimes of their members is largely lacking. This study presents the main findings of research based on police files of cases that were filed against members of Dutch OMCGs. We apply a criminological scenario approach to analyse to what extent and in which ways OMCGs are involved in the crimes of their members. The results show that OMCG membership particularly plays an indirect role in the criminal behaviour of OMCG members. Board members, for example, give permission for criminal acts, regulate mutual relationships between members, non-members and rival OMCGs during conflict situations, and forbid (criminal) behaviour of members that is harmful to the OMCG. OMCGs function as a pool of co-offenders and as a market for criminal enterprises. Members also use th...
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Objectives Focusing on intermittency as a specific criminal career dimension, the present study explores the distribution of intermittency as it occurs across individuals and in the course of the criminal career. Methods Using conviction... more
Objectives Focusing on intermittency as a specific criminal career dimension, the present study explores the distribution of intermittency as it occurs across individuals and in the course of the criminal career. Methods Using conviction data on repeat offenders (N = 3716) from the Criminal Career and Life-Course Study (CCLS), overall patterns of intermittency (measured as conviction-free intervals between subsequent convictions) are analyzed. Given different levels of offending before and after conviction-free periods, we examine the length of the conviction-free interval and the extent to which offending in terms of frequency and specialization changes after a conviction-free period. Results On average, repeat offenders show relatively short intermittency periods. However, conviction-free intervals tend to increase towards the end of the criminal career regardless of offending frequency. A substantial minority of offenders has a criminal career characterized by more than one spell...
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This study examines the relationship between criminal behaviour over the life-course and intimate partner violence (IPV) perpetration and general violence in later life. The study uses data on a subsample ( N = 585) from the Dutch... more
This study examines the relationship between criminal behaviour over the life-course and intimate partner violence (IPV) perpetration and general violence in later life. The study uses data on a subsample ( N = 585) from the Dutch Criminal Career and Life-Course Study, and combines officially registered longitudinal data on convictions with self-reported data on IPV perpetration, violent offending and several individual factors, collected at age 60. The results show that those with a history of persistent general and violent offending over the life-course are at increased risk of perpetrating IPV and other violent crimes in later life. Additionally, certain background and current factors are also related to IPV perpetration. Men who have experienced family violence in childhood and those who are married are more likely to report IPV perpetration, whereas relationship quality and employment are associated with a reduced likelihood of IPV perpetration. The findings suggest that an int...
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The current study examined harsh punishment and peer victimization as developmental precursors to girls' involvement in physical dating violence (PDV) and the putative mediating effect of rejection sensitivity. The sample comprised... more
The current study examined harsh punishment and peer victimization as developmental precursors to girls' involvement in physical dating violence (PDV) and the putative mediating effect of rejection sensitivity. The sample comprised 475 African‐American and European‐American participants of the longitudinal Pittsburgh Girls Study who were dating at age 17. About 10% of girls reported significant perpetration or victimization of physical aggression in the relationship. Results showed that initial level and escalation in harsh punishment (between 10 and 13 years) and escalation in peer victimization (10–15 years) predicted PDV involvement, but this relationship was not mediated by rejection sensitivity. The results highlight the need to consider the impact of early experience of different forms of aggression on girls' risk of PDV involvement.
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The aim of this paper is to describe the development of criminal behavior from early adolescence to late adulthood based on conviction data for a sample of Dutch offenders. Measuring over an age span of 12 to 72, we ask whether there is... more
The aim of this paper is to describe the development of criminal behavior from early adolescence to late adulthood based on conviction data for a sample of Dutch offenders. Measuring over an age span of 12 to 72, we ask whether there is evidence for (1) criminal trajectories that are distinct in terms of time path, (2) a small group of persistent offenders, (3) criminal trajectories that are distinct in the mix of crimes committed, or, more specifically, persistent offenders disproportionately engaging in violent offences, and (4) different offender groups having different social profiles in life domains other than crime. The analysis is based on the conviction histories of the Dutch offenders in the Criminal Career and Life Course Study. Four trajectory groups were identified using a semi‐parametric, group‐based model: sporadic offenders, low‐rate desisters, moderate‐rate desisters and high‐rate persisters. Analyses show that high‐rate persisters engage in crime at a very substanti...
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Organized crime differs substantially from high-volume crime, at least theoretically. But do offenders differ as well? This study makes an extensive comparison between offenders who engage in organized crime at a particular moment in... more
Organized crime differs substantially from high-volume crime, at least theoretically. But do offenders differ as well? This study makes an extensive comparison between offenders who engage in organized crime at a particular moment in their lives and general offenders, based on various dimensions of their criminal careers. Many organized crime offenders do not have judicial contacts before adulthood. Surprisingly, this turns out to be the case for the comparison group as well. However, organized crime offenders do more often have previous judicial contacts, and those previous contacts are also far more serious. These general findings are robust; they also hold when the comparisons are restricted to organized crime offenders and general offenders who have engaged in drug crimes and fraud cases.
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This study uses longitudinal official record data on adult offenders in The Netherlands (n = 4,246) to compare recidivism after community service to that after short-term imprisonment. To account for possible bias due to selection of... more
This study uses longitudinal official record data on adult offenders in The Netherlands (n = 4,246) to compare recidivism after community service to that after short-term imprisonment. To account for possible bias due to selection of offenders into these types of sanctions, we control for a large set of confounding variables using a combined method of ‘matching by variable’ and ‘propensity score
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Social control theory links being employed with reduced criminal behaviour. In particular, the indirect social control generated by the perceived benefits of the current job are expected to underlie the work–crime association. Features... more
Social control theory links being employed with reduced criminal behaviour. In particular, the indirect social control generated by the perceived benefits of the current job are expected to underlie the work–crime association. Features specific to the emerging adult period, however, call into question the strength of the work–crime association during this new life stage. This study uses data from the Utrecht Study of Adolescent Development (USAD), a longitudinal self-report study among 669 men and women aged 18 to 24 at the start of the study to examine the extent to which working a paid job is associated with reduced levels of delinquency and crime, and the extent to which this association is conditional on individual job perceptions. We also test for gender differences in these associations. Results indicate that for men – but not for women – paid work is associated with lower levels of delinquency and crime, but only from age 24 onwards.