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by Michel den Elzen and Nicklas Forsell
Background: In preparation for the 2015 international climate negotiations in Paris, Parties submitted Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) expressing... more
Background: In preparation for the 2015 international climate negotiations in Paris, Parties submitted Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) expressing each countries' respective post-2020 climate actions. In this paper we assess individual Parties' expected reduction of emissions/removals from land use, land use change, and forest (LULUCF) sector for reaching their INDC target, and the aggregate global effect on the INDCs on the future development of emission and removals from the LULUCF sector. This has been done through analysis Parties' official information concerning the role of LULUCF mitigation efforts for reaching INDC targets as presented in National Communications, Biennial Update Reports, and Additional file 1. Results: On the aggregate global level, the Parties themselves perceive that net LULUCF emissions will increase over time. Overall, the net LULUCF emissions are estimated to increase by 0.6 Gt CO 2 e year −1 (range: 0.1–1.1) in 2020 and 1.3 Gt CO 2 e year −1 (range: 0.7–2.1) in 2030, both compared to 2010 levels. On the other hand, the full implementation of the INDCs is estimated to lead to a reduction of net LULUCF emissions in 2030 compared to 2010 levels. It is estimated that if all conditional and unconditional INDCs are implemented, net LULUCF emissions would decrease by 0.5 Gt CO 2 e year −1 (range: 0.2–0.8) by 2020 and 0.9 Gt CO 2 e year −1 (range: 0.5–1.3) by 2030, both compared to 2010 levels. The largest absolute reductions of net LULUCF emissions (compared to 2010 levels) are expected from Indone-sia and Brazil, followed by China and Ethiopia. Conclusions: The results highlights that countries are expecting a significant contribution from the LULUCF sector to meet their INDC mitigation targets. At the global level, the LULUCF sector is expected to contribute to as much as 20% of the full mitigation potential of all the conditional and unconditional INDC targets. However, large uncertainties still surround how Parties estimate, project and account for emissions and removals from the LULUCF sector. While INDCs represent a new source of land-use information, further information and updates of the INDCs will be required to reduce uncertainty of the LULUCF projections.
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Selecting and applying quantification models for ecosystem services to forest ecosystems in South Koreamore
by Nicklas Forsell and Seongwoo Jeon
Publication Date: 2016
Publication Name: Journal of Forestry Research
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Publication Date: 2016
Publication Name: Global Environmental Change
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Publication Date: 2016
Publication Name: Climatic Change
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by Nicklas Forsell and Warren Mabee
Publication Date: 2016
Publication Name: Energy Economics
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China has announced its intention to peak CO 2 emissions by 2030 or earlier. The peak in greenhouse gas emissions would reach 35–40% above 2010 levels. Current policies are likely not to be sufficient to meet the announced 2030 target.... more
China has announced its intention to peak CO 2 emissions by 2030 or earlier. The peak in greenhouse gas emissions would reach 35–40% above 2010 levels. Current policies are likely not to be sufficient to meet the announced 2030 target. The expected emission levels reach about 50% above 2010 levels. Our selected enhancement policy measures lead to peaking CO 2 emissions before 2030.
Publication Date: 2016
Publication Name: Energy Policy
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Climate Change Impacts and Mitigation in the Developing World: An Integrated Assessment of the Agriculture and Forestry Sectorsmore
by David Leclère and Nicklas Forsell
Publication Date: 2015
Publication Name: Policy Research Working Papers
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Publication Date: 2015
Publication Name: Eastern-European Journal of Enterprise Technologies
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Publication Date: 2015
Publication Name: Handbook of Clean Energy Systems
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Publication Date: 2013
Publication Name: Renewable Energy
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Publication Date: 2014
Publication Name: Energy Policy
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Management of the risk of wind damage in forestry: a graph-based Markov decision process approachmore
by Nicklas Forsell and Kristina Blennow
This study deals with the problem of including the risk of wind damage in long-term forestry management. A model based on Graph-Based Markov Decision Processes (GMDP) is suggested for development of silvicultural management policies. The... more
This study deals with the problem of including the risk of wind damage in long-term forestry management. A model based on Graph-Based Markov Decision Processes (GMDP) is suggested for development of silvicultural management policies. The model can both take stochastic wind events into account and be applied to forest estates containing a large number of stands. The model is demonstrated for a forest estate in southern Sweden. Treatment of the stands according to the management policy specified by the GMDP model increased the expected net present value (NPV) of the whole forest only slightly, less than 2%, under different wind-risk assumptions. Most of the stands were managed in the same manner as when the risk of wind damage was not considered. For the stands that were treated differently, however, the expected NPV increased by 3% to 8%.