John Forbes

BAG1 is a multifunctional anti-apoptotic protein located on chromosome 9q12, which binds to Bcl-2. BAG1 is present as a separate module in the GHI-RS 21-gene panel. It may provide additional prognostic information as an immunohistochemical marker when added to IHC4. Analysis of BAG1 was performed on archival tumour blocks from patients from the anastrozole and tamoxifen arms of the ATAC trial of 5 years endocrine therapy in postmenopausal women with oestrogen receptor (ER)-positive primary breast cancer. Staining was scored separately as nuclear or cytoplasmic. Statistical analyses were performed on data from median 10-year follow-up with distant recurrence as primary endpoint. Data on both nuclear and cytoplasmic BAG1 as well as the IHC4 markers (ER, PgR, HER2 and Ki67) were available on 963 ER-positive cases of which 860 were HER2-negative. Cytoplasmic and nuclear BAG1 were highly correlated (Spearman r = 0.79, p < 00001). Women with higher BAG1 expression developed 30 % fewer distant recurrences compared to those with low expression. Nuclear BAG1 contributed significantly to the clinical and IHC4 models with added information being greater in node-positive cases. Similar results were seen if all recurrences were the endpoints. BAG1 expression provides significant prognostic information when added to the classical clinicopathological parameters and IHC4, particularly in node-positive patients.

Purpose Tamoxifen is an effective drug, but its role in prevention is limited by its adverse effect profile. Non-life-threatening adverse effects, such as vasomotor symptoms, have an important influence in its use for prevention. Vasomotor symptoms were evaluated according to follow-up time, severity, and use of hormone replacement therapy (HRT) in a retrospective analysis. Patients and Methods In the International

To identify the individual genes or gene modules that lead to the OncoptypeDx 21-gene recurrence score's reduced performance after 5 years and thereby identify indices of residual risk that may guide selection of patients for extended adjuvant therapy. We conducted a retrospective assessment of the relationship between (i) the individual genes and gene modules of the Recurrence Score and (ii) early (0-5 years) and late (5-10 years) recurrence rates in 1,125 postmenopausal patients with primary estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer treated with anastrozole or tamoxifen in the Arimidex, Tamoxifen, Alone or Combined (ATAC) randomized clinical trial. In the HER2-negative population (n = 1,009), estimates of recurrence risk were similar between years 0-5 and 5-10 for proliferation and invasion modules but markedly different for the estrogen module and genes within it (all split at the median): for low estrogen module, annual recurrence rates were similar across the two time window...

Four previously published randomised clinical trials have shown that tamoxifen can reduce the risk of breast cancer in healthy women at increased risk of breast cancer in the first 10 years of follow-up. We report the long-term follow-up of the IBIS-I trial, in which the participants and investigators remain largely masked to treatment allocation. In the IBIS-I randomised controlled trial, premenopausal and postmenopausal women 35-70 years of age deemed to be at an increased risk of developing breast cancer were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive oral tamoxifen 20 mg daily or matching placebo for 5 years. Patients were randomly assigned to the two treatment groups by telephone or fax according to a block randomisation schedule (permuted block sizes of six or ten). Patients and investigators were masked to treatment assignment by use of central randomisation and coded drug supply. The primary endpoint was the occurrence of breast cancer (invasive breast cancer and ductal carcinoma in...

Aromatase inhibitors effectively prevent breast cancer recurrence and development of new contralateral tumours in postmenopausal women. We assessed the efficacy and safety of the aromatase inhibitor anastrozole for prevention of breast cancer in postmenopausal women who are at high risk of the disease. Between Feb 2, 2003, and Jan 31, 2012, we recruited postmenopausal women aged 40-70 years from 18 countries into an international, double-blind, randomised placebo-controlled trial. To be eligible, women had to be at increased risk of breast cancer (judged on the basis of specific criteria). Eligible women were randomly assigned (1:1) by central computer allocation to receive 1 mg oral anastrozole or matching placebo every day for 5 years. Randomisation was stratified by country and was done with blocks (size six, eight, or ten). All trial personnel, participants, and clinicians were masked to treatment allocation; only the trial statistician was unmasked. The primary endpoint was histologically confirmed breast cancer (invasive cancers or non-invasive ductal carcinoma in situ). Analyses were done by intention to treat. This trial is registered, number ISRCTN31488319. 1920 women were randomly assigned to receive anastrozole and 1944 to placebo. After a median follow-up of 5·0 years (IQR 3·0-7·1), 40 women in the anastrozole group (2%) and 85 in the placebo group (4%) had developed breast cancer (hazard ratio 0·47, 95% CI 0·32-0·68, p<0·0001). The predicted cumulative incidence of all breast cancers after 7 years was 5·6% in the placebo group and 2·8% in the anastrozole group. 18 deaths were reported in the anastrozole group and 17 in the placebo group, and no specific causes were more common in one group than the other (p=0·836). Anastrozole effectively reduces incidence of breast cancer in high-risk postmenopausal women. This finding, along with the fact that most of the side-effects associated with oestrogen deprivation were not attributable to treatment, provides support for the use of anastrozole in postmenopausal women at high risk of breast cancer. Cancer Research UK, the National Health and Medical Research Council Australia, Sanofi-Aventis, and AstraZeneca.

Aromatase inhibitors prevent breast cancer in postmenopausal women at high risk of the disease but are associated with accelerated bone loss. We assessed effectiveness of oral risedronate for prevention of reduction in bone mineral density (BMD) after 3 years of follow-up in a subset of patients in the IBIS-II trial. The double-blind IBIS-II trial recruited 3864 healthy, postmenopausal women at increased risk of breast cancer and randomly allocated them oral anastrozole (1 mg/day) or matched placebo. 1410 (36%) postmenopausal women were then enrolled in a bone substudy and stratified at baseline according to their lowest baseline T score at spine or femoral neck (stratum I: T score at least -1·0; stratum II: T score at least -2·5 but less than -1·0; stratum III: T score less than -2·5 but greater than -4·0). Women in stratum I were monitored only; women in stratum III were all given risedronate (35 mg/week). Women in stratum II were randomly assigned (1:1) to risedronate (35 mg/week...

Purpose: To identify patient populations at high risk for bone metastases at any time after diagnosis of oper- able breast cancer, because these patients are potential beneficiaries of treatment with bisphosphonates. Patients and Methods: We evaluated data from 6,792 patients who were randomized in International Breast Cancer Study Group clinical trials between 1978 and 1993. Median follow-up was 10.7 years.

Joint symptoms (eg, arthralgia and arthritis) are a well-known side-effect of aromatase inhibitors. Low oestrogen concentrations and postmenopausal status are associated with the development of these symptoms. Chemotherapy can also induce joint symptoms, but tamoxifen seems to have little effect on their incidence. The aim of this study was to assess the relative importance of different risk factors for treatment-emergent joint symptoms in patients assigned to anastrozole or tamoxifen as adjuvant treatment for postmenopausal breast cancer. The Arimidex Tamoxifen Alone or in Combination (ATAC) trial randomly assigned 9366 postmenopausal women to anastrozole (1 mg/day), to tamoxifen (20 mg/day), or to a combination of both. Our analyses were based on data from case reports of 5433 women who were randomly assigned to anastrozole or tamoxifen, who started with their allocated treatment, and who did not have joint symptoms at entry (anastrozole group: n=2698; tamoxifen group: n=2735). The analysis was restricted to the occurrence of joint symptoms at any time during active treatment or within 14 days of its discontinuation. Joint symptoms were defined as any report of arthralgia, arthrosis, arthritis, or joint disorder on a case-report form. Joint disorders were defined as reports of cervical spondylosis, osteoarthritis, and disc herniation. The date of occurrence was recorded, along with a severity score (ie, mild, moderate, or severe). Our analyses were done by use of logistic regression. The ATAC trial is registered as an International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial, number ISRCTN18233230. 777 of 1914 women (40.6%) who used hormone replacement therapy (HRT) before trial entry developed joint symptoms compared with 1001 of 3519 women (28.4%) without previous HRT use (odds ratio [OR] 1.72 [95% CI 1.53-1.93]). Women with hormone-receptor-negative breast cancer developed significantly fewer joint symptoms compared with those with hormone-receptor-positive tumours (124 of 461 [26.9%] vs 1556 of 4548 [34.2%]; OR 0.71 [0.57-0.88]). Women for whom chemotherapy was part of their initial treatment developed significantly more joint symptoms than those who did not receive it (461 of 1219 women [37.8%] vs 1317 of 4214 women [31.3%]; OR 1.34 [1.17-1.53]). Obese women (body-mass index [BMI] >30 kg/m(2)) reported more joint symptoms than women with a BMI of 25-30 kg/m(2) or those with a BMI <25 kg/m(2) (504 of 1354 women [37.2%] vs 502 of 1926 women [31.3%; OR 1.01 (0.88-1.16)] vs 592 of 1908 women [31.0%; OR 1.32 (1.14-1.53)]) and women on anastrozole reported more joint symptoms compared with those on tamoxifen (949 of 2698 women [35.2%] vs 829 of 2735 women [30.3%]; OR 1.25 [1.11-1.40]). All significant risk factors from the univariate analysis were included in a multivariate analysis and remained significant with little change. In this trial, the major risk factors for developing joint symptoms were previous HRT, hormone-receptor positivity, previous chemotherapy, obesity, and treatment with anastrozole. Discussion of identified risk factors is appropriate when counselling women before initiation of adjuvant hormonal treatment.

For women with oestrogen receptor (ER)-positive early breast cancer, treatment with tamoxifen for 5 years substantially reduces the breast cancer mortality rate throughout the first 15 years after diagnosis. We aimed to assess the further effects of continuing tamoxifen to 10 years instead of stopping at 5 years. In the worldwide Adjuvant Tamoxifen: Longer Against Shorter (ATLAS) trial, 12,894 women with early breast cancer who had completed 5 years of treatment with tamoxifen were randomly allocated to continue tamoxifen to 10 years or stop at 5 years (open control). Allocation (1:1) was by central computer, using minimisation. After entry (between 1996 and 2005), yearly follow-up forms recorded any recurrence, second cancer, hospital admission, or death. We report effects on breast cancer outcomes among the 6846 women with ER-positive disease, and side-effects among all women (with positive, negative, or unknown ER status). Long-term follow-up still continues. This study is registered, number ISRCTN19652633. Among women with ER-positive disease, allocation to continue tamoxifen reduced the risk of breast cancer recurrence (617 recurrences in 3428 women allocated to continue vs 711 in 3418 controls, p=0·002), reduced breast cancer mortality (331 deaths vs 397 deaths, p=0·01), and reduced overall mortality (639 deaths vs 722 deaths, p=0·01). The reductions in adverse breast cancer outcomes appeared to be less extreme before than after year 10 (recurrence rate ratio [RR] 0·90 [95% CI 0·79–1·02] during years 5–9 and 0·75 [0·62–0·90] in later years; breast cancer mortality RR 0·97 [0·79–1·18] during years 5–9 and 0·71 [0·58–0·88] in later years). The cumulative risk of recurrence during years 5–14 was 21·4% for women allocated to continue versus 25·1% for controls; breast cancer mortality during years 5–14 was 12·2% for women allocated to continue versus 15·0% for controls (absolute mortality reduction 2·8%). Treatment allocation seemed to have no effect on breast cancer outcome among 1248 women with ER-negative disease, and an intermediate effect among 4800 women with unknown ER status. Among all 12,894 women, mortality without recurrence from causes other than breast cancer was little affected (691 deaths without recurrence in 6454 women allocated to continue versus 679 deaths in 6440 controls; RR 0·99 [0·89–1·10]; p=0·84). For the incidence (hospitalisation or death) rates of specific diseases, RRs were as follows: pulmonary embolus 1·87 (95% CI 1·13–3·07, p=0·01 [including 0·2% mortality in both treatment groups]), stroke 1·06 (0·83–1·36), ischaemic heart disease 0·76 (0·60–0·95, p=0·02), and endometrial cancer 1·74 (1·30–2·34, p=0·0002). The cumulative risk of endometrial cancer during years 5–14 was 3·1% (mortality 0·4%) for women allocated to continue versus 1·6% (mortality 0·2%) for controls (absolute mortality increase 0·2%). For women with ER-positive disease, continuing tamoxifen to 10 years rather than stopping at 5 years produces a further reduction in recurrence and mortality, particularly after year 10. These results, taken together with results from previous trials of 5 years of tamoxifen treatment versus none, suggest that 10 years of tamoxifen treatment can approximately halve breast cancer mortality during the second decade after diagnosis. Cancer Research UK, UK Medical Research Council, AstraZeneca UK, US Army, EU-Biomed.

To explore potential differences in efficacy, treatment completion, and adverse events (AEs) in elderly women receiving adjuvant tamoxifen or letrozole for five years in the Breast International Group (BIG) 1-98 trial. This report includes the 4,922 patients allocated to 5 years of letrozole or tamoxifen in the BIG 1-98 trial. The median follow-up was 40.4 months. Subpopulation Treatment Effect Pattern Plot (STEPP) analysis was used to examine the patterns of differences in disease-free survival and incidences of AEs according to age. In addition, three categoric age groups were defined: "younger postmenopausal" patients were younger than 65 years (n = 3,127),…

Previous analyses of adjuvant studies of aromatase inhibitors versus tamoxifen, including the Breast International Group (BIG) 1-98 study, have suggested a small numerical excess of cardiac adverse events (AEs) on aromatase inhibitors, a reduction in the incidence of hypercholesterolemia on tamoxifen, and significantly higher incidence of thromboembolic AEs on tamoxifen. The purpose of the present study is to provide detailed updated information on these AEs in BIG 1-98. Eight thousand twenty-eight postmenopausal women with receptor-positive early breast cancer were randomly assigned (double-blind) between March 1998 and May 2003 to receive 5 years of adjuvant endocrine therapy with letrozole, tamoxifen, or a sequence of these agents. Seven thousand nine hundred sixty-three patients who actually received therapy are included in this safety analysis, which focuses on cardiovascular events. AE recording ceased 30 days after therapy completion (or after switch on the sequential arms). Baseline comorbidities were balanced. At a median follow-up time of 30.1 months, we observed similar overall incidence of cardiac AEs (letrozole, 4.8%; tamoxifen, 4.7%), more grade 3 to 5 cardiac AEs on letrozole (letrozole, 2.4%; tamoxifen, 1.4%; P = .001)--an excess only partially attributable to prior hypercholesterolemia--and more overall (tamoxifen, 3.9%; letrozole, 1.7%; P < .001) and grade 3 to 5 thromboembolic AEs on tamoxifen (tamoxifen, 2.3%; letrozole, 0.9%; P < .001). There was no significant difference between tamoxifen and letrozole in incidence of hypertension or cerebrovascular events. The present safety analysis, limited to cardiovascular AEs in BIG 1-98, documents a low overall incidence of cardiovascular AEs, which differed between treatment arms.

Previous analyses of the Breast International Group (BIG) 1-98 four-arm study compared initial therapy with letrozole or tamoxifen including patients randomly assigned to sequential treatment whose information was censored at the time of therapy change. Because this presentation may unduly reflect early events, the present analysis is limited to patients randomly assigned to the continuous therapy arms and includes protocol-defined updated results. Four thousand nine hundred twenty-two of the 8,028 postmenopausal women with receptor-positive early breast cancer randomly assigned (double-blind) to the BIG 1-98 trial were assigned to 5 years of continuous adjuvant therapy with either letrozole or tamoxifen; the remainder of women were assigned to receive the agents in sequence. Disease-free survival (DFS) was the primary end point. At a median follow-up time of 51 months, we observed 352 DFS events among 2,463 women receiving letrozole and 418 events among 2,459 women receiving tamoxifen. This reflected an 18% reduction in the risk of an event (hazard ratio, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.71 to 0.95; P = .007). No predefined subsets showed differential benefit. Adverse events were similar to previous reports. Patients on tamoxifen experienced more thromboembolic events, endometrial pathology, hot flashes, night sweats, and vaginal bleeding. Patients on letrozole experienced more bone fractures, arthralgia, low-grade hypercholesterolemia, and cardiovascular events other than ischemia and cardiac failure. The present updated analysis, which was limited to patients on monotherapy arms in BIG 1-98, yields results similar to those from the previous primary analysis but more directly comparable with results from other trials of continuous therapy using a single endocrine agent.

Predictive factors for early relapse were node positivity (P < 0.001), absence of both receptors being positive (P < 0.001), high tumor grade (P < 0.001), HER-2 overexpression/amplification (P < 0.001), large tumor size (P = 0.001), treatment with tamoxifen (P = 0.002), and vascular invasion (P = 0.02). There were no significant interactions between treatment and the covariates, though