Growth in developing countries is expected to pick up from 4.8 percent in 2013 to 5.0 percent in 2014, 5.4 percent in 2015, and 5.6 percent in 2016. Stronger global growth will help most developing East Asia Pacific (EAP) countries grow... more
Growth in developing countries is expected to pick up from 4.8 percent in 2013 to 5.0 percent in 2014, 5.4 percent in 2015, and 5.6 percent in 2016. Stronger global growth will help most developing East Asia Pacific (EAP) countries grow at a steady pace while they adjust to tighter global financial conditions. The structure of domestic demand is undergoing adjustment as countries are trying to unwind internal imbalances and respond to external vulnerabilities. External positions have steadily improved in EAP countries, making them better prepared to manage further normalization of monetary policy in advanced economies. Foreign direct investment flows into developing EAP countries have remained robust. These developments have helped the EAP countries offset the portfolio outflows associated with the scaling back of the quantitative easing program by the United States. The authorities in some of the large economies have employed macro-prudential measures to contain the risks arising from asset price boom including in the real estate market. China's priority is to further reduce total credit growth in the economy, which is still well above nominal gross domestic product (GDP) growth. There are modest fiscal consolidation efforts underway in several countries, with an emphasis on rationalizing fuel and rice subsides, although more needs to be done to rebuild policy buffers and create space for priority spending. The downside risks to the economic prospects of developing EAP are evenly balanced with opportunities for more rapid growth, including through deeper structural reforms. The report is organized in following three parts: part one presents recent developments and outlook; part two focuses on elected emerging issues; and part three presents country pages and key indicators.
Research Interests:
Research Interests:
China's economy is slowing, reflecting cyclical factors and longer-term structural trends. Notwithstanding the recent conclusion of the phase one agreement between China and the United States, short-term risks remain tilted to the... more
China's economy is slowing, reflecting cyclical factors and longer-term structural trends. Notwithstanding the recent conclusion of the phase one agreement between China and the United States, short-term risks remain tilted to the downside amid a fragile global outlook and the lingering impact of trade tensions, especially on confidence. Adverse demographics, tepid productivity growth, and the legacies of excessive borrowing and environmental pollution will continue to weigh on growth over the medium term. If downside risks lead to a sharp reduction in growth, the authorities have policy space to act, but this needs to be done in a way that is consistent with reducing financial and corporate sector risks and achieving the desired rebalancing of the economy toward consumption and private investment. The key medium-term priorities are to deepen structural reforms to strengthen productivity growth and private investment, while accelerating rebalancing toward consumption, services, and green growth. This would require addressing market distortions and mainstreaming environmental sustainability into China's medium-term development strategy. Implementation of these priorities would boost China's long-term growth prospects; it would also help move toward a more comprehensive and lasting resolution of remaining deep-seated disagreements on global trade and investment, and public goods agenda.
Research Interests:
Research Interests:
Research Interests:
Research Interests:
In June, the European Council extended EU economic sanctions against Russia for another six months while Russia extended its food import ban against Western countries for a year. A fluid situation on global financial markets and yet again... more
In June, the European Council extended EU economic sanctions against Russia for another six months while Russia extended its food import ban against Western countries for a year. A fluid situation on global financial markets and yet again lower growth prospects led to oil prices losing ground in early July. Ruble depreciation pressure remained throughout June as demand for foreign currency increased while supply declined slightly due to lower oil prices. Russia’s first quarter GDP growth was revised from -1.9 to -2.2 percent−still slightly less than projected earlier−while May high frequency statistics show a deepening recession. On June 25, the government approved the main parameters for the 2016–2018 budgets, foreseeing persistent deficits and evaporating fiscal buffers despite significant expenditure cuts.
Research Interests:
Research Interests: Business, Economics, Geopolitics, Economic Growth, Developing Countries, and 15 moreEconomic Development, China, Emerging Market, Developing Country, CDS, Credit Default Swaps, Income, Currency, Bond, Economic Sanctions, Depreciation, Economic Developments, Balance of Payments, Current Account, and Credit Default
Research Interests:
Research Interests: Business, Developing Countries, Agriculture, Economic Development, Economic integration, and 15 moreEmerging Markets, Elasticity, Air, Financial Services, Comparative Advantage, Exposure, Connectivity, Currency, Benchmark, Commodity, Economies of Scale, E Commerce, Advanced Countries, Advanced economies, and Current Account
Research Interests:
Global growth again fell short of expectations in 2015. Growth is projected to edge up in 2016-18 but the forecast is subject to substantial downside risks. In addition to discussing global and regional economic developments and outlook,... more
Global growth again fell short of expectations in 2015. Growth is projected to edge up in 2016-18 but the forecast is subject to substantial downside risks. In addition to discussing global and regional economic developments and outlook, this edition of the global economic prospects also includes analysis of key challenges and opportunities currently confronting emerging and developing countries: spillovers from a slowdown in major emerging markets; the potential macroeconomic implications of the Trans-Pacific partnership; and the links between exchange rate regimes and capital controls in emerging and developing countries. It also includes a study on vulnerabilities accumulating between commodity discovery and production in low-income countries.
Research Interests:
Research Interests:
Research Interests: Business, Developing Countries, Agriculture, Economic Development, Economic integration, and 15 moreEmerging Markets, Elasticity, Air, Financial Services, Comparative Advantage, Exposure, Connectivity, Currency, Benchmark, Commodity, Economies of Scale, E Commerce, Advanced Countries, Advanced economies, and Current Account
Research Interests:
Research Interests:
Growth in developing East Asia and Pacific (EAP) continues to be resilient and in line with previous expectations. Already robust domestic demand has been supported by some pickup in external demand and the gradual recovery in commodity... more
Growth in developing East Asia and Pacific (EAP) continues to be resilient and in line with previous expectations. Already robust domestic demand has been supported by some pickup in external demand and the gradual recovery in commodity prices. Fiscal deficits in the major regional economies widened in 2016, prompting some adjustment toward the end of the year in Indonesia and Malaysia. Monetary policies remained accommodative, and credit continued to grow rapidly in most major economies. Inflation is edging up and producer prices are rising quickly as commodity prices increase. Capital outflows intensified toward end-2016 leading to depreciation pressures, but financial markets have since recovered. The growth outlook for 2017–19 remains broadly positive across the region. China is expected to continue its gradual transition to lower, more sustainable growth. In the rest of the region, growth is projected to pick up moderately. Continued buoyancy in domestic demand, including publi...
Research Interests:
Research Interests:
Growth in developing countries is expected to pick up from 4.8 percent in 2013 to 5.0 percent in 2014, 5.4 percent in 2015, and 5.6 percent in 2016. Stronger global growth will help most developing East Asia Pacific (EAP) countries grow... more
Growth in developing countries is expected to pick up from 4.8 percent in 2013 to 5.0 percent in 2014, 5.4 percent in 2015, and 5.6 percent in 2016. Stronger global growth will help most developing East Asia Pacific (EAP) countries grow at a steady pace while they adjust to tighter global financial conditions. The structure of domestic demand is undergoing adjustment as countries are trying to unwind internal imbalances and respond to external vulnerabilities. External positions have steadily improved in EAP countries, making them better prepared to manage further normalization of monetary policy in advanced economies. Foreign direct investment flows into developing EAP countries have remained robust. These developments have helped the EAP countries offset the portfolio outflows associated with the scaling back of the quantitative easing program by the United States. The authorities in some of the large economies have employed macro-prudential measures to contain the risks arising f...
Research Interests:
Research Interests:
Research Interests:
In the six months since the previous East Asia and Pacific (EAP) economic update, developing EAP has faced a challenging external environment. Financial market conditions in the region, however, have been volatile over much of the past 6... more
In the six months since the previous East Asia and Pacific (EAP) economic update, developing EAP has faced a challenging external environment. Financial market conditions in the region, however, have been volatile over much of the past 6 months, as in the rest of the world. Over the next two to three years, growth in developing EAP is expected to ease modestly. Poverty in developing EAP has declined rapidly in recent years, and is projected to fall further with continued growth; however, in several countries the pace of poverty reduction has been restricted by limited labor market opportunities, particularly for disadvantaged groups. The positive outlook for growth and poverty reduction in the region in this base case is subject to elevated risks. The outlook for the Pacific Island Countries (PICs) is heavily dependent on their ability to overcome geographic constraints and take advantage of the relatively narrow set of opportunities available to them. Sustaining the pace of poverty...
Research Interests:
The global economy grew by an estimated 3.0 percent in 2017, up from 2.4 percent in 2016. Growth in both advanced economies (2.3 percent) and emerging markets and developing economies (4.3 percent) exceeded expectations. Rapid export... more
The global economy grew by an estimated 3.0 percent in 2017, up from 2.4 percent in 2016. Growth in both advanced economies (2.3 percent) and emerging markets and developing economies (4.3 percent) exceeded expectations. Rapid export growth, buoyed by healthy global growth, drove Thailand’s economic growth to 3.9 percent in 2017, the fastest GDP growth since 2012. Growth accelerated in the second half of the year, with robust growth of 4.3 percent in 2017Q3 and 4.0 percent in 2017Q4. A sharp acceleration in net exports accounted for 40 percent of the growth from 2016 to 2017. Export rose by 7.5 percent in 2017, the highest growth since 2011, driven by sharp increase in merchandise exports and a rebound in tourism with a 9 percent increase in tourist arrivals from 2016. A pick up in private investment is also expected in 2018, as signaled by improved business sentiment and acceleration of capital goods imports in late 2017. The extent of the private investment rebound will depend on ...
Research Interests:
China's economy is slowing, reflecting cyclical factors and longer-term structural trends. Notwithstanding the recent conclusion of the phase one agreement between China and the United States, short-term risks remain tilted to the... more
China's economy is slowing, reflecting cyclical factors and longer-term structural trends. Notwithstanding the recent conclusion of the phase one agreement between China and the United States, short-term risks remain tilted to the downside amid a fragile global outlook and the lingering impact of trade tensions, especially on confidence. Adverse demographics, tepid productivity growth, and the legacies of excessive borrowing and environmental pollution will continue to weigh on growth over the medium term. If downside risks lead to a sharp reduction in growth, the authorities have policy space to act, but this needs to be done in a way that is consistent with reducing financial and corporate sector risks and achieving the desired rebalancing of the economy toward consumption and private investment. The key medium-term priorities are to deepen structural reforms to strengthen productivity growth and private investment, while accelerating rebalancing toward consumption, services, ...
Research Interests:
The Indonesia Economic Quarterly (IEQ) has two main objectives. First, it reports on the key developments over the past three months in Indonesia's economy, and places these in a longer term and global context. Based on these... more
The Indonesia Economic Quarterly (IEQ) has two main objectives. First, it reports on the key developments over the past three months in Indonesia's economy, and places these in a longer term and global context. Based on these developments, and on policy changes over the period, the IEQ regularly updates the outlook for Indonesia's economy and social welfare. Second, the IEQ provides a more in-depth examination of selected economic and policy issues, and analysis of Indonesias medium-term development challenges. It is intended for a wide audience, including policymakers, business leaders, financial market participants, and the community of analysts and professionals engaged in Indonesia's evolving economy. As Indonesians await the results of a presidential election on July 9, 2014 and plan for the upcoming inauguration of a new president in October, they face hard policy choices. The past decade of solid growth has contributed to considerable development progress. Indone...
Research Interests:
While the economy continues to expand rapidly in Cambodia, real GDP growth eased to 6.8percent in 2017 from 7 percent in 2016. Cambodia therefore bucked the regional trend, asmost developing countries in East Asia experienced a growth... more
While the economy continues to expand rapidly in Cambodia, real GDP growth eased to 6.8percent in 2017 from 7 percent in 2016. Cambodia therefore bucked the regional trend, asmost developing countries in East Asia experienced a growth acceleration in 2017. Followingsome moderation during the first half of 2017, textile and apparel exports rebounded. Thetourism and agriculture sectors experienced initial recovery in the last few years after facinggradual moderation. Growth is projected to remain robust, expanding at 6.9 percent in 2018.Downside risks to the outlook include erosion of export competitiveness due to rapidly risingreal wages, a buildup of vulnerabilities from a prolonged real estate and construction boom,potential election-related uncertainty, and periodic jolts to the international trade order inthe form of protectionism and escalating trade disputes. This edition of Cambodia economic update is focusing on findings of future jobs in Cambodia.
Research Interests:
Research Interests:
Research Interests:
Investment growth in many emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) has slowed sharply since 2010. Investment growth performance has varied significantly across different regions, however. This paper examines the evolution of... more
Investment growth in many emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) has slowed sharply since 2010. Investment growth performance has varied significantly across different regions, however. This paper examines the evolution of investment growth in six EMDE regions, documents remaining investment needs, especially for infrastructure, and presents a set of region-specific policy responses to address these needs. It reports three main findings. First, investment growth has been particularly weak in EMDE regions hosting a large number of commodity exporters. In regions with a substantial number of commodity-importing economies, investment growth has been somewhat resilient but has also declined steadily since 2010. Second, sizable investment needs remain in most EMDE regions to make room for expanding economic activity and rapid urbanization. A large portion of these investment needs is in infrastructure and human capital. Finally, while specific policy priorities vary across regi...
Research Interests:
Research Interests:
Global growth is expected to recover to 2.5 percent in 2020, up slightly from the post-crisis low of 2.4 percent registered last year amid weakening trade and investment, and edge up further over the forecast horizon. This projected... more
Global growth is expected to recover to 2.5 percent in 2020, up slightly from the post-crisis low of 2.4 percent registered last year amid weakening trade and investment, and edge up further over the forecast horizon. This projected recovery could be stronger if recent policy actions, particularly those that have mitigated trade tensions, lead to a sustained reduction in policy uncertainty. Nevertheless, downside risks predominate, including the possibility of a re-escalation of global trade tensions, sharp downturns in major economies, and financial disruptions in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). The materialization of theserisks would test the ability of policymakers to respond effectively to negative events. Associated policy challenges are compounded by high debt levels and subdued productivity growth. Many EMDEs need to rebuild macroeconomic policy space to enhance resilience to possible adverse developments. They also need to pursue decisive reforms to bolster...
Research Interests:
In the six months since the previous East Asia and Pacific economic update, the regional economic landscape has been dominated by two key developments in the global economy. First, there has been a sustained decline in world oil prices.... more
In the six months since the previous East Asia and Pacific economic update, the regional economic landscape has been dominated by two key developments in the global economy. First, there has been a sustained decline in world oil prices. This is already exerting, and will likely continue to exert, a differential impact on the performance and prospects of countries, depending on whether they are fuel importers or exporters. Second, there has been a rapid dollar appreciation against the euro and the yen. Most regional currencies have depreciated to only a limited extent against the dollar, implying significant appreciations in real, trade-weighted terms. Growth in developing East Asia and Pacific moderated from 7.2 percent in 2013 to 6.9 percent in 2014, reflecting slowdowns in China and some ASEAN-4 economies. Nonetheless, the region still accounted for more than one-third of global growth, twice the combined contribution of all other developing regions. In China, growth decelerated b...
Research Interests:
The South East Europe (SEE6) region exited from recession in the first half of 2013, supported by a nascent recovery in the Euro area. Industry-especially manufacturing exports and energy drove the recovery. The region experienced a... more
The South East Europe (SEE6) region exited from recession in the first half of 2013, supported by a nascent recovery in the Euro area. Industry-especially manufacturing exports and energy drove the recovery. The region experienced a welcome surge in exports in 2013, particularly car exports from Serbia. Unemployment in the region, at about 24 percent on average, began to decline in the first half of 2013 from its peak crisis levels. While employment grew in Albania, FYR Macedonia and Montenegro, it remained depressed in Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina. Unemployment in the region, at about 24 percent on average, began to decline in the first half of 2013 from its peak crisis levels. While employment grew in Albania, FYR Macedonia and Montenegro, it remained depressed in Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina. But even where employment has recovered meaningfully since 2010, the gains were not broad-based and mostly concentrated in services Near-term economic growth will be too weak to su...
Research Interests: Business, Accounting, Capital Markets, Credit Rating, Credit Ratings, and 15 moreCDS, Contingency Planning, Credit Default Swaps, Consolidation, Currency, Bond, Accounting standards, BID, Capital Adequacy, Balance Sheets, Balance Sheet, creditors, Current Account, Credit Default Swap, and Credit Default
The external environment has deteriorated during the first half of 2019, and downside riskspredominate in the near-term. Global GDP growth is projected to decline to 2.6 percent in 2019 from 3 percent in 2018, reflecting broad-based... more
The external environment has deteriorated during the first half of 2019, and downside riskspredominate in the near-term. Global GDP growth is projected to decline to 2.6 percent in 2019 from 3 percent in 2018, reflecting broad-based weakness in advanced economies and major Emerging Market and Developing Economies. Reflecting slower growth and heightened policy uncertainty associated with protected trade tensions, global trade growth is protracted to weaken further from 4.1 percent in 2018 to 2.6 percent in 2019. Downside risks include a further escalation of trade disputes between the world's two largest trading nations, while a more pronounced downturn in global activity and increased volatility in financial flows. Amidst rising global headwinds, Vietnam's economic growth momentum has been slowing since the beginning of the year. Vietnam's real GDP growth has decelerated to a still robust 6.8 percent in the first quarter of 2019 from a vibrant 7.5 percent pace in the sa...
Research Interests:
Research Interests:
In June, the European Council extended EU economic sanctions against Russia for another six months while Russia extended its food import ban against Western countries for a year. A fluid situation on global financial markets and yet again... more
In June, the European Council extended EU economic sanctions against Russia for another six months while Russia extended its food import ban against Western countries for a year. A fluid situation on global financial markets and yet again lower growth prospects led to oil prices losing ground in early July. Ruble depreciation pressure remained throughout June as demand for foreign currency increased while supply declined slightly due to lower oil prices. Russia’s first quarter GDP growth was revised from -1.9 to -2.2 percent−still slightly less than projected earlier−while May high frequency statistics show a deepening recession. On June 25, the government approved the main parameters for the 2016–2018 budgets, foreseeing persistent deficits and evaporating fiscal buffers despite significant expenditure cuts.
Research Interests:
Research Interests:
Research Interests: Capital Markets, Developing Countries, Current accounts, Emerging Markets, Emerging Market, and 15 moreFinancial System, External Debt, Distortion, Consolidation, Bond, Bonds, Depreciation, Current Account Deficit, Capital Goods, Balance Sheets, Budget Constraints, Distortions, Advanced economies, Current Account Surplus, and Current Account
Research Interests: Business, Macroeconomics, International Macroeconomics, Economic Growth, Developing Countries, and 15 moreEconomic Development, Emerging Market, Developing Country, Inflation, CDS, Credit Default Swaps, Income, Currency, Bond, Depreciation, Economic Developments, Balance of Payments, Incomes, Current Account, and Credit Default
Recent economic developments The South East Europe (SEE6) region exited from recession in the first half of 2013, supported by a nascent recovery in the Euro area. Industry––especially manufacturing exports and energy––drove the recovery.... more
Recent economic developments The South East Europe (SEE6) region exited from recession in the first half of 2013, supported by a nascent recovery in the Euro area. Industry––especially manufacturing exports and energy––drove the recovery. The region experienced a welcome surge in exports in 2013, particularly car exports from Serbia. Favorable weather conditions supported a strong contribution of agricultural output to economic growth and helped weaken inflationary pressures. However, domestic demand remained depressed in most of the region, reflecting high unemployment, sluggish growth of household incomes and credit, and a difficult investment climate. Only in Kosovo and FYR Macedonia did public investment contribute to some strengthening of domestic demand. Beyond these short-term factors, a slowdown in productivity growth and rising unit labor costs adversely affected economic growth, lowering competitiveness and demand for labor. Unemployment in the region, at about 24 percent ...
Research Interests: Business, Accounting, Capital Markets, Credit Rating, Credit Ratings, and 15 moreCDS, Contingency Planning, Credit Default Swaps, Consolidation, Currency, Bond, Accounting standards, BID, Capital Adequacy, Balance Sheets, Balance Sheet, creditors, Current Account, Credit Default Swap, and Credit Default
Global growth again fell short of expectations in 2015. Growth is projected to edge up in 2016-18 but the forecast is subject to substantial downside risks. In addition to discussing global and regional economic developments and outlook,... more
Global growth again fell short of expectations in 2015. Growth is projected to edge up in 2016-18 but the forecast is subject to substantial downside risks. In addition to discussing global and regional economic developments and outlook, this edition of the global economic prospects also includes analysis of key challenges and opportunities currently confronting emerging and developing countries: spillovers from a slowdown in major emerging markets; the potential macroeconomic implications of the Trans-Pacific partnership; and the links between exchange rate regimes and capital controls in emerging and developing countries. It also includes a study on vulnerabilities accumulating between commodity discovery and production in low-income countries.
Research Interests:
Recent economic developments The South East Europe (SEE6) region exited from recession in the first half of 2013, supported by a nascent recovery in the Euro area. Industry––especially manufacturing exports and energy––drove the recovery.... more
Recent economic developments The South East Europe (SEE6) region exited from recession in the first half of 2013, supported by a nascent recovery in the Euro area. Industry––especially manufacturing exports and energy––drove the recovery. The region experienced a welcome surge in exports in 2013, particularly car exports from Serbia. Favorable weather conditions supported a strong contribution of agricultural output to economic growth and helped weaken inflationary pressures. However, domestic demand remained depressed in most of the region, reflecting high unemployment, sluggish growth of household incomes and credit, and a difficult investment climate. Only in Kosovo and FYR Macedonia did public investment contribute to some strengthening of domestic demand. Beyond these short-term factors, a slowdown in productivity growth and rising unit labor costs adversely affected economic growth, lowering competitiveness and demand for labor. Unemployment in the region, at about 24 percent ...