Harald Sverdrup
Inland Norway University of Applied Sciences, Amek, Faculty Member
Research Interests:
Research Interests:
... Soils in Different Scales, Using the PROFILE Model and Affiliated Databases. Akselsson, Cecilia, Harold U ... Weathering rates of soil minerals are important for estimating mass balances for nutrient supply ... can be used to create... more
... Soils in Different Scales, Using the PROFILE Model and Affiliated Databases. Akselsson, Cecilia, Harold U ... Weathering rates of soil minerals are important for estimating mass balances for nutrient supply ... can be used to create a normative mineralogy using a norma-tive model ...
Research Interests: Environmental Science, Biology, Sustainable, Weathering, Sustainability Assessment, and 12 moreSustainable forestry, Data Dependence, High Resolution, Forestry Sciences, Critical Loads, Nutrient Availability, Soil Properties, Decision Maker, Forest Soil Ecology, Field Data, Sustainability, and Soil Water
Research Interests:
Research Interests:
This article considers the seventeen UN sustainable development goals (SDGs) and provides an analysis of economic challenges which are largely missing in the discussion to date. Whilst the UN SDGs are a considerable achievement, they do... more
This article considers the seventeen UN sustainable development goals (SDGs) and provides an analysis of economic challenges which are largely missing in the discussion to date. Whilst the UN SDGs are a considerable achievement, they do not address the issue of finite natural resources for technology and food production, nor do they address issues of infrastructure and materials. In terms of the social dimensions, diminishing the extensive corruption in the global system and the promotion of social trust, fundamental for functioning democracy, are also in need of urgent attention. Using the WORLD model, we draw up the system that exists in our world and come to preliminary conclusions about changes that are necessary to achieve the goals. Our analysis will show that there are some important missing systemic elements that are needed to deliver the SDGs and we make recommendations on this basis. We propose that achieving these goals depend upon establishing new economic systems, more equitable societies and diverting military funding into SDG achievement.
Research Interests:
The long term acidity level of a lake is determined by the balance between acidity input to the catchment and the generation of alkalinity in the catchment. If the input of acidity through biomass net production and the production of... more
The long term acidity level of a lake is determined by the balance between acidity input to the catchment and the generation of alkalinity in the catchment. If the input of acidity through biomass net production and the production of alkalinity through weathering of minerals can be estimated, then the steady-state acidity level can be calculated for the lake under a certain acid deposition rate. Such a calculation has been carried out for 8 lakes ranging from acid to neutral. For lakes with the most sensitive soils in the catchment, the critical acid deposition load that will permit the lake to stay neutral, may be less than zero acidity, indicating that the forest growth is contributing to the acidification of very sensitive system under the present forest managements methods.
Research Interests:
To determine the future of global resoures we need to determine the current availability and consumption rates. A schematic diagram of world resource use is depicted in [Figure 3.1][1]. Reserves are extracted, they are sold as market... more
To determine the future of global resoures we need to determine the current availability and consumption rates. A schematic diagram of world resource use is depicted in [Figure 3.1][1]. Reserves are extracted, they are sold as market stocks, used in society, scrapped and lost or recovered. The
Research Interests:
Research Interests:
It is now well documented that fossil fuels are experiencing peak production now. This is shown in [Figure 6.1][1] from the Association for the Study of Peak Oil ([Aleklett, 2007][2]; [Aleklett et al. , 2012][3]). It appears to be a... more
It is now well documented that fossil fuels are experiencing peak production now. This is shown in [Figure 6.1][1] from the Association for the Study of Peak Oil ([Aleklett, 2007][2]; [Aleklett et al. , 2012][3]). It appears to be a consensus among petroleum geologists that conventional oil went
Research Interests:
Natural resources are derived from the environment. They form through biogeochemical and physical processes within the Earth and on the Earth’s surface where interaction between the atmosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere, geosphere and... more
Natural resources are derived from the environment. They form through biogeochemical and physical processes within the Earth and on the Earth’s surface where interaction between the atmosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere, geosphere and cryosphere takes place. A natural resource may exist as a separate
Research Interests:
The different metal and energy models exemplified here are all part of a larger programme, where we are building a global systems model called WORLD. The WORLD model attempts to model the world systems in a way similar to what the World3... more
The different metal and energy models exemplified here are all part of a larger programme, where we are building a global systems model called WORLD. The WORLD model attempts to model the world systems in a way similar to what the World3 model ([Fig. 4.1][1]) once did ([Meadows et al. , 1972][2], [
Research Interests:
Research Interests:
Research Interests:
The total resources form copper, zinc and lead was estimated from a reworking of the literature. The data was used as input to the integrated systems dynamics model BRONZE, and used to estimate the global supply of these metals and the... more
The total resources form copper, zinc and lead was estimated from a reworking of the literature. The data was used as input to the integrated systems dynamics model BRONZE, and used to estimate the global supply of these metals and the by-products antimony, indium, germanium, tellurium, cadmium, bismuth and selenium. The runs show that copper, zinc and lead go through peak production around 2050 and declines as the resources run out some time after 2100, and with them the metals produced as by products become unavailable.
Research Interests:
Research Interests:
Research Interests:
Research Interests:
A new model; WORLD6 was developed. WORLD6 differs from the earlier system dynamics world models in several aspects. Several modules link the economy, materials, metals, energy, population and politics in a dynamic system. The present... more
A new model; WORLD6 was developed. WORLD6 differs from the earlier system dynamics world models in several aspects. Several modules link the economy, materials, metals, energy, population and politics in a dynamic system. The present version is a result of a dismantling of the World3 model (Meadows et al., 1972, 1992, 2004) with an extension and substitution of its resource module and economy module. The WORLD6 model has several sub-modules at present which are all dynamically linked: 1. Population and food module: The module contains the original World3 model from 1972 model and used again in 1992 and 2004. This was enhanced with a new module for phosphate rock extraction, fertilizer production and an agricultural unit of WORLD6. 2. Materials and metals module a. Materials: Phosphorus, cement, sand, gravel and cut stone. b. Metals: Copper, zinc, lead, silver, gold, Iron, chromium, manganese, nickel, aluminium, stainless steel, antimony, bismuth, cobalt, gallium, germanium, indium, ...
Research Interests:
Research Interests:
Research Interests:
This chapter describes the use of geochemical models to assess the impacts of the deposition of metals on the concentrations of metals in soils and surface waters. We describe three dynamic models: SMART2-metals, SMARTml and CHUM-AM, each... more
This chapter describes the use of geochemical models to assess the impacts of the deposition of metals on the concentrations of metals in soils and surface waters. We describe three dynamic models: SMART2-metals, SMARTml and CHUM-AM, each with their specific purpose and geographical scale of application. All three models include the most relevant metal fluxes and soil chemical processes, but with various level of detail related to their specific aim and scale. The ability of the models to simulate the long-term trends of metal fate was assessed by comparing model results and observations of either the present metal status, using hind cast simulations with historical deposition trends, or metal pools in chronosequences of afforested agricultural land of different stand age, or metal concentrations observed in a long-term monitoring study. The model simulations show the long times needed to approach equilibrium concentrations of metals due to changes in the atmospheric deposition of metals, sulphur and nitrogen. Dynamic models are therefore indispensable tools for the assessment of metal concentrations at changing levels of metal inputs to soil-water systems.
Research Interests:
Research Interests:
Research Interests:
Dominant tree species from a south-eastern Brazilian savanna showing different leaf phenologies (evergreen, semi-deciduous and deciduous) were characterized regarding photosynthetic potential (A), leaf nitrogen content (% N), specific... more
Dominant tree species from a south-eastern Brazilian savanna showing different leaf phenologies (evergreen, semi-deciduous and deciduous) were characterized regarding photosynthetic potential (A), leaf nitrogen content (% N), specific leaf area (SLA), photosynthetic nitrogen (PN) and photosynthetic nitrogen use efficiency (PNUE). The ecophysiological traits evaluated seasonally (dry and wet season) characterized a gradient of strategies among three species: the evergreen species that dominates lower strata, showed low % N, SLA, Amax and Amass and high PNUE; the semi-deciduous species that dominates intermediate strata, showed medium leaf nitrogen and SLA and high Amax, Amass and PNUE; the deciduous species that dominates the canopy, showed high leaf N, SLA, Amax and Amass and low PNUE. Non deciduous species invested relatively more nitrogen in photosynthesis during the wet season, while the deciduous species maintained higher PN in the dry season. Photosynthetic N and PNUE appear to be the key to a better understanding of the relations among leaf traits, N content and photosynthetic potential in species with different leaf phenologies and subjected to climatic seasonality.
Research Interests: Botany, Photosynthesis, Biology, Phenology, Deciduous, and 3 moreEvergreen, Dry Season, and Springer Ebooks
Research Interests:
Research Interests:
Research Interests:
The exponentially developing Global Megatrends of human society can be explained and modelled from a systemic perspective. Results show simultaneous exponential growth for population, energy consumption, raw materials extraction, GDP,... more
The exponentially developing Global Megatrends of human society can be explained and modelled from a systemic perspective. Results show simultaneous exponential growth for population, energy consumption, raw materials extraction, GDP, pollution and climate change. The authors participated in the development of the WORLD6 system dynamics model to explain these trends and to explore what the future may hold. This was done based on the systemic approach in order to include feedback loops and changes in trends that may occur at later points in time. The modelling results allow to reproduce developments that are referred to as “Global Megatrends” in literature and that are used to proof the concept of the Anthropocene. While in the Global Megatrends literature and the Anthropocene literature exponential growth is based on empirical data we suggest taking a longer and systemic perspective on these global trends. Whether the trends are to level off, decline or crash depends to a large degree on future policies. We can confirm that the “rise and fall scenarios” are principally right in their analysis as well as the root causes. It is evident from our WORLD6 simulations that a business-as-usual scenario will lead to a decline of disruptive nature. It is also evident that the worst case scenario can be avoided by a careful design of policies, using the systems perspective assisted by dynamic model simulations. The German policies for an Energiewende (energy transition) must be linked to a future policy of Ressourcewende (resource transition) and a Nachhaltigkeitswende (sustainability transition). Such policies appear strategically appropriate and well founded in science.
Research Interests:
The global supply of cobalt was simulated by combining 3 different system dynamics models; BRONZE, PGM and STEEL. The present use of cobalt shows a low degree of recycling and systemic losses are significant. The reserves of cobalt are... more
The global supply of cobalt was simulated by combining 3 different system dynamics models; BRONZE, PGM and STEEL. The present use of cobalt shows a low degree of recycling and systemic losses are significant. The reserves of cobalt are not very large (20-25 million ton extractable) as compared to metals like copper, zinc or iron, and after 2170 cobalt will have run out under a business-as-usual scenario. The present business-as-usual for cobalt use in society is in no way sustainable
Research Interests:
WORLD6 model was developed and applied to simulate potential future supply and scarcity of a num- ber of natural resources within the system dynamics modelling workpackage of the SimRess project. The main objective of this report is to... more
WORLD6 model was developed and applied to simulate potential future supply and scarcity of a num- ber of natural resources within the system dynamics modelling workpackage of the SimRess project. The main objective of this report is to outline the overall structure of the WORLD6 model and provide a detailed description of the “resources” module implemented in the model.In the WORLD6 model, resources are clustered under METALS, MATERIALS and ENERGY sub-mod- ules. The metals sub-module includes copper, zinc, lead, technology metals (silver, antimony, bismuth, tellurium, selenium, cadmium, germanium, indium, gallium), manganese, chromium, nickel, iron, stain- less steel, speciality metals (molybdenum, rhenium, niobium, tantalum, cobalt, wolfram, platinum group metals (platinum, palladium, rhodium), super alloys) and light metals (aluminium, lithium). The materials sub-module includes sand, gravel and stone, where as the energy sub-module includes fos- sile fuels more specifically hydro...
Research Interests:
The WORLD6 model is a fully integrated dynamic world systems model. It includes a biophysical global economic model, based on first principles of physics and thermodynamics, forcing it to be fully consistent with the underlying mass- and... more
The WORLD6 model is a fully integrated dynamic world systems model. It includes a biophysical global economic model, based on first principles of physics and thermodynamics, forcing it to be fully consistent with the underlying mass- and energy balances. The WORLD6 model first creates value from extraction of natural resources, input of human labour, the efficiency effect of mechanization and automation, the effect of innovation and their use in manufacturing of goods and services, and the secondly does monetization through market mechanisms and debt financing. The model includes 7 different capital stocks for: (1) industrial resource extraction, (2) industrial manufacture, (3) social service capital, (4) agricultural capital for land use and food production, (5) military capital, (6) speculative capital tied up in derivatives, real estate, consumer credits, (7) criminal or illegal capital. There are 3 different debt pools; (1) general, (2) speculative and (3) pensions. These are al...
Research Interests:
Global production rates of metals vary from iron at 1.4 billion ton per year to platinum with 200 ton per year. Resource scarcity starts to manifest itself in rising prices and supply limitations, and metal substitution has been a major... more
Global production rates of metals vary from iron at 1.4 billion ton per year to platinum with 200 ton per year. Resource scarcity starts to manifest itself in rising prices and supply limitations, and metal substitution has been a major argument among economists when putting considerations of resource scarcity aside. Here we investigate the potential limits to metal substitution. Present consumption, recycling and irreversible loss rates, as well as the metal balances and properties are examined. Our findings suggest that the major limitations and issues to substitution are: (1) Physical limitations in terms of metal available; it can only take place by a more abundant metal taking partly the place of a metal produced in smaller amounts; (2) Functional limitations based of differences in physical and chemical properties; and (3) By considering substitution options often more energy is needded and larger CO2 emissions occur. Substitution of metals is therefore not going to take the t...
Research Interests:
Research Interests:
The critical rates of extraction of some metals was explored using a methodology based on the thinking behind critical loads for sulphur and nitrogen deposition developed in Europe 1990-2010. With a long term sustainability view in mind,... more
The critical rates of extraction of some metals was explored using a methodology based on the thinking behind critical loads for sulphur and nitrogen deposition developed in Europe 1990-2010. With a long term sustainability view in mind, critical rates based on 5,000 and 10,000 years were estimated and found to widely exceed the present extraction rates. Huge advances in recycling, as well as a significant contraction of metal demand would be required to reach no exceedence of the critical rates.
Research Interests:
Several studies of the phosphorus cycle and the sustainability of phosphorus have been published ([Malthus, 1798][1], [von Liebig, 1843][2]; [Osborn, 1948][3]; [Vogt, 1948][4]; [Meadows et al. , 1972][5], [1992][6], [2004][7]; [Daily and... more
Several studies of the phosphorus cycle and the sustainability of phosphorus have been published ([Malthus, 1798][1], [von Liebig, 1843][2]; [Osborn, 1948][3]; [Vogt, 1948][4]; [Meadows et al. , 1972][5], [1992][6], [2004][7]; [Daily and Ehrlich, 1992][8]; [Ehrlich et al. , 1992][6]; [Daily et al
Research Interests:
Diverse and complex interactions as well as multi-actor systems characterise resource use and re- source policy. This makes system analysis a relevant tool to orient resource policy towards the long term. Analysing such complex systems... more
Diverse and complex interactions as well as multi-actor systems characterise resource use and re- source policy. This makes system analysis a relevant tool to orient resource policy towards the long term. Analysing such complex systems requires systemic thinking, consideration of causal loops as well as time-lags and delays in system responses.In the SimRess project, system analysis encompassed participatory conceptual system modelling via involving external stakholders into identifying system boundaries and elements via causal loop dia- grams (CLDs). The CLDs were than reflected in the parametrisation of simulation models and the de- velopment of policy mixes.Only a limited number of stakeholders participated in two of the five workshops needed for a fully- fledged group modelling process. Therefore, the project team finalised internally the conceptual sys- tem model. Although this reduced ownership and transparency of the system model, the two work- shops provided relevant system ...
Research Interests:
Studien baseras pa drygt 1000 observationsytor i skogsmark.Modellberakning med PROFILE har gjorts for berakning av den kritisk belastningsgrans,overskridande av kritisk belstningsgrans,vittring,BC/ ...
Research Interests:
Nitrogen atmospheric deposition is known to severely impact ecosystem functioning by influencing soil biogeochemistry, nutrients balance and, consequently, tree growth, forest health and biodiversity. Because the ongoing global changes... more
Nitrogen atmospheric deposition is known to severely impact ecosystem functioning by influencing soil biogeochemistry, nutrients balance and, consequently, tree growth, forest health and biodiversity. Because the ongoing global changes affect the ecosystem processes, climate change and atmospheric deposition must be conjointly taken into account to assess the evolution of forest ecosystem status over time. The general purpose of this work was to predict forest vegetation response to the combined impacts of nitrogen atmospheric deposition and climate change by using dynamic modelling approaches. The coupled biogeochemical-ecological model ForSAFE-Veg was first run to simulate this response on three well referenced studied sites after calibration (Rizzetto et al. 2016). The main challenge consists now in a change of scale: (i) first by extending the simulations to a hundred set of sites from the French ICP-forest network, and (ii) second to apply the approach on forest ecosystems defi...
Research Interests:
Research Interests:
Abstract The long term development of world primary extraction, market supply, recycling and extractable amounts of the platinum group metals platinum, palladium and rhodium was assessed. The degree of sustainability was estimated using... more
Abstract The long term development of world primary extraction, market supply, recycling and extractable amounts of the platinum group metals platinum, palladium and rhodium was assessed. The degree of sustainability was estimated using system dynamics modelling. Compiling estimates from different sources, and considering recent technological advances in deep mining suggests that the Ultimately Recoverable Resource (URR) is about 216,000 ton of platinum group metals down to a mining depth of maximum 5 km, significantly more than earlier published estimates. The world supply and production of platinum group metals was calculated using system dynamics methodology to develop the PGM-model for this study. The model combines mining, ore grade changes, trade markets, price mechanisms, supply, demand, estimates of stock-in-use, waste, dissipative losses and recycling into a whole world system. The model was run for the period of 1900⿿2400. The model outputs were successfully tested on historic data for mining rate, ore grades and platinum market price during 1900⿿2014. The model indicates that extraction will reach maximum in the period 2020⿿2050 and that market supply will peak in 2070⿿2080. The delay is caused by the effect of recycling. The outputs from the model emphasize the importance of recycling, metal conservation and elimination of dissipative losses in order to secure long term sustainable platinum group metals supply.
Research Interests:
The integrated model WORLD and Hubbert's model were used for assessment of future supply for different metals: iron, nickel, manganese, chromium, molybdenum, tantalum, niobium, rhenium, zir- conium, tungsten, cobalt, copper, zinc,... more
The integrated model WORLD and Hubbert's model were used for assessment of future supply for different metals: iron, nickel, manganese, chromium, molybdenum, tantalum, niobium, rhenium, zir- conium, tungsten, cobalt, copper, zinc, lead, aluminium and the technology metals derived from copper ezinc mining (tellurium, selenium, gallium, indium, antimony, bismuth, tin, germanium, selenium). The connections between their productions were mapped. The literature was reviewed for best estimates of total recoverable amounts, and best estimates were made, considering extraction costs and extractability. Peak years were determined for all the metals studied. Most metals seem to reach peak production during the next 4 decades, suggesting a risk for shortages in the near future. When supplies from mines dwindle, measures such as recycling from society's stock, substitutions to other materials than metals when this is possible, and stopped dissipative uses, will become important mitigation tools, calling for reorganization of resource policies world-wide. Present resource policies at all levels (regional, national, international) are to a large degree inadequate and need thorough review. The relevance of the Hubbert's model as an assessment tool was done. It is useful for all metals taken from independent ore deposits, whereas the method appears to be less suited for extraction of dependent metals unless the curve is derived from the Hubbert's model applied on the parent source. In such times, strategic thinking and strategic leadership based in systems thinking will be required. (Less)
Research Interests:
The Danish multi factorial climate change effects on vegetation experiment (Climaite) have now been conducted for two years on semi-natural grassland. The day time [CO2], night time temperature and precipitation (drought) have been... more
The Danish multi factorial climate change effects on vegetation experiment (Climaite) have now been conducted for two years on semi-natural grassland. The day time [CO2], night time temperature and precipitation (drought) have been altered, according to a regional climate change model for the year 2075, in a full factorial split plot design. The manipulated area for each treatment is 7
Research Interests:
This chapter describes the standard approaches (mass balance models) to calculate critical loads of nutrient nitrogen (N) as well as for sulphur (S) and N acidity for both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. The description focuses on the... more
This chapter describes the standard approaches (mass balance models) to calculate critical loads of nutrient nitrogen (N) as well as for sulphur (S) and N acidity for both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. The description focuses on the so-called Simple Mass Balance (SMB) model for nutrient nitrogen and acidity for terrestrial ecosystems and on the First-order Acidity Balance (FAB) model for aquatic ecosystems. The model descriptions are in accordance with the methods for calculating critical loads under the LRTAP Convention. For both types of models, a discussion is presented on the required input data, data sources and standard model parameter values used in their application. For acidity, the chapter elaborates on the critical load function as there is no unique critical load of S and N acidity, and on the approach to assess critical load exceedances. The chapter ends with a discussion on the possible formulation of critical loads based on biodiversity criteria.
Research Interests:
Research Interests:
A simple model for soil acidification describes the observed pH and base saturation profiles in a Swedish podzol affected by acid deposition. The model is based on a mechanistic respresentation of ion exchange and the weathering rate and... more
A simple model for soil acidification describes the observed pH and base saturation profiles in a Swedish podzol affected by acid deposition. The model is based on a mechanistic respresentation of ion exchange and the weathering rate and is based on a mass balance for calcium and alkalinity. The model has been extended to include a dynamic model for dissolution of limestone in soils. This model has a potential use as a tool for planning and evaluation of different terrestial liming operations.