SALIH KATIRCIOGLU
Eastern Mediterranean University, Banking and Finance, Faculty Member
This study examines the effects of business and finance conditions on the stock performances of firms operating in the tourism, hospitality, and leisure industries. This research employs panel-based first- and second-generation... more
This study examines the effects of business and finance conditions on the stock performances of firms operating in the tourism, hospitality, and leisure industries. This research employs panel-based first- and second-generation estimators, such as Westerlund cointegration, dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS), and Dumitrescu–Hurlin panel Granger causality tests, to explore long-term links between business conditions, financial development, and tourism growth in major tourist destination countries selected in this study. To our knowledge, this is the first study to attempt to explore this linkage. The long-run estimation underscores that business and finance environments are significant drivers of stock price movements in this industry. Therefore, any shock in business and finance activities will have long-term effects on tourism firms’ stock prices. Moreover, the results show that the most significant factor that explains changes in the tourism stock price is foreign tourist arriva...
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among the main issues of development economics is to investigate the major determinants of economic growth. The relationship and the direction of causality between financial development and economic growth have been empirically tested in... more
among the main issues of development economics is to investigate the major determinants of economic growth. The relationship and the direction of causality between financial development and economic growth have been empirically tested in the literature. after the extensive studies in this field, it is now well recognized that financial development is crucial for economic growth [Calderon, Liu 2003] as it is a necessary condition for achieving a high rate of economic growth [Chang 2002] and has a strong positive relationship with economic growth [Mazur, Alexander 2001]. However, according to De Gregorior and Guidotti [1995] financial development significantly reduces economic growth for countries (especially in Latin America) experiencing relatively high inflation rates. Thus, this causal relationship generally remains unclear [Calderon, Liu 2003]. In the early studies of economic development, relatively little attention was paid to the financial aspects of the process and the role o...
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Research on searching the empirical relationship between international tourism and foreign direct investment (FDI) is quite rare in the relevant literature. [16] find that FDI is a catalyst for inter- national tourism in the case of... more
Research on searching the empirical relationship between international tourism and foreign direct investment (FDI) is quite rare in the relevant literature. [16] find that FDI is a catalyst for inter- national tourism in the case of China. However, more empirical works are needed in the literature; therefore, this paper contributes to this literature by empirically investigating the level relationship and the direction of causality between the net FDI inflows and international tourism in a developing economy, Turkey. The present study employs the bounds test for long run equilibrium relationship as developed by [12] and Granger causality tests under vector error correction modeling with that respect. Results suggest that both variables are in long-run equilibrium relationship only when FDI is dependent variable under the ARDL (auto-regressive distributed lag) modeling approach. Re- sults did not reveal any long run equilibrium relationship amongst these variables when internatio- na...
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This study investigates the role of the financial system in energy demand in the cases of developed and developing countries. Time-series analyses are carried out using the annual data period from 2000 to 2015. Results indicate that the... more
This study investigates the role of the financial system in energy demand in the cases of developed and developing countries. Time-series analyses are carried out using the annual data period from 2000 to 2015. Results indicate that the financial system and financial markets are long-term catalysts for energy consumption in both groups under consideration. Results show that domestic credits by banks positively impact energy demand in developing countries, while this is money supply impacting positively on energy demand in the case of developed nations. The results of this study reveal important policy implications.
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This study investigates the dynamic effects of the shadow economy and environmental pollution on the energy stock prices in the case of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries via generalized methods of... more
This study investigates the dynamic effects of the shadow economy and environmental pollution on the energy stock prices in the case of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries via generalized methods of moments (GMM) and during the years from 2004 to 2014. Results suggest significant links between the volume of shadow economies, energy stock prices, and environmental pollution. Negative effects of carbon dioxide emissions on energy stock prices are found in this study. Furthermore, a U-shaped relationship is also found between the shadow economy and energy stock prices; that is the initial levels of the shadow economy the response of energy stock prices is negative; then, beyond a trough point, its response starts to be positive at the further stages of the level of shadow economies. Despite energy consumption raises energy stock prices, environmental pollution mitigates the value of energy stock prices.
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Purpose This study aims to investigate the role and spillover effects of the financial sector on the size of the informal economic activity in Turkey. Design/methodology/approach Time series analysis has been adopted for annual data of... more
Purpose This study aims to investigate the role and spillover effects of the financial sector on the size of the informal economic activity in Turkey. Design/methodology/approach Time series analysis has been adopted for annual data of the 1970-2017 period. New approaches in unit root and cointegration tests have been used in this study. Estimations have been done via dynamic ordinary least squares and fully modified ordinary least square approaches. Findings Results confirm the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between the financial system and informal economic activities in Turkey. At the earlier stages of financial development (FD), informality tends to rise while in further stages, informality tends to decline over time. This study confirms the U-shaped relationship between FD and the informal economy in Turkey. Research limitations/implications This study has used logarithmic values of series in the econometric analysis except for real interest rates because of n...
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ABSTRACT This study investigated the effects of terrorist attacks on the stock performance of tourism, travel, and leisure industries. The major tourist countries have been selected for this purpose. The novelty of this research is that... more
ABSTRACT This study investigated the effects of terrorist attacks on the stock performance of tourism, travel, and leisure industries. The major tourist countries have been selected for this purpose. The novelty of this research is that not only it focuses on the relationship between terrorism and tourism stock performance and volatility but also uses an event study to examine this relationship. The results of this study revealed the significant effects of terrorist attacks on tourism firms’ performance and stock volatility in France, Spain, Thailand, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the United States, while no significant effects were obtained for China and Germany. The overall panel event study analysis as well as the event study for individual countries illustrated the considerable adverse effects of terrorist attacks on firms’ performance in tourism, travel, and leisure industries.
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This study searches the impact of tourism growth on emission pollutants in Cyprus (north), which is a small island in the Mediterranean and has shown significant development in hotel and casino sectors in the last two decades. Results... more
This study searches the impact of tourism growth on emission pollutants in Cyprus (north), which is a small island in the Mediterranean and has shown significant development in hotel and casino sectors in the last two decades. Results from time-series analyses reveal that an inverted U-shaped EKC hypothesis is confirmed for Cyprus with and without tourism development. Tourism also exerts positively significant and long-term effects on the levels of carbon emissions, revealing that growth in the tourism sector causes degradation in the environment.
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This study estimates the effects of higher education development on climate changes through energy consumption in the case of Cyprus (North), which progressed successfully in this sector although countries other than Turkey do not... more
This study estimates the effects of higher education development on climate changes through energy consumption in the case of Cyprus (North), which progressed successfully in this sector although countries other than Turkey do not recognize its state (Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus). The results of this study reveal that there is strong evidence for the positive and significant impact of higher education growth on climate change via energy consumption. Therefore, it is concluded that educational development in Cyprus is a long-term contributor to the energy sector and, therefore, climate change.
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ABSTRACT The main objective of this paper is to investigate if a wage difference exists between formal and informal sectors in the case of the Turkish labour market using a sample of wageworkers. To this end, we use data for 2004 and 2009... more
ABSTRACT The main objective of this paper is to investigate if a wage difference exists between formal and informal sectors in the case of the Turkish labour market using a sample of wageworkers. To this end, we use data for 2004 and 2009 and a novel definition of the informal sector. On the methodological front, we adopt three alternative decomposition techniques, namely, the Oaxaca-Ransom [(1994). On discrimination and the decomposition of wage differentials. Journal of Econometrics, 61, 5–21] decomposition in the context of mean regression, the Machado and Mata [(2005). Counterfactual decomposition of changes in wage distributions using quantile regression. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 20(4), 445–465] decomposition in the quantile regression framework and the non-parametric decomposition method proposed by Nopo [(2008). Matching as a tool to decompose wage gap. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 90(2), 290–299]. The results reveal the existence of a wage gap between the two sectors. We found education and experience to be key determinants of earnings. The findings of this paper have implications for policies, which might be directed towards developing approaches with a focus on education and experience.
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This study investigates the role of tourism growth in generating additional energy consumption in the case of major tourist countries. Panel data that range from 1995 to 2014 have thus been constructed. Significant results of this study... more
This study investigates the role of tourism growth in generating additional energy consumption in the case of major tourist countries. Panel data that range from 1995 to 2014 have thus been constructed. Significant results of this study confirm long term economic effects of tourism growth in energy usage in tourist destinations; tourism exerts positively significant but inelastic effects on the overall energy consumption. Finally, this study finds that changes in exchange rates cause changes in tourism and changes in tourism cause significant changes in energy consumption in the same direction; therefore, it is proposed that tourism sector acts as a successful mediator between exchange rate changes and energy consumption which is an essential policy concern for countries heavily depending on foreign energy imports.
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This study introduces a new research topic that investigates the relationship between fiscal development and carbon emissions in Turkey through testing Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis. Annual data covering the period,... more
This study introduces a new research topic that investigates the relationship between fiscal development and carbon emissions in Turkey through testing Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis. Annual data covering the period, 1960–2013, has been used and in addition to gross domestic product and energy consumption, fiscal policy variables have been regressed on the level of carbon emissions in Turkey. Results reveal that fiscal policies and carbon emissions are in long-term equilibrium relationship in Turkey; carbon dioxide emission level converges towards long-term paths as contributed by fiscal policy. The effects of fiscal aggregates on the level of carbon dioxide emissions are negatively significant revealing that growth in fiscal aggregates leads to declines on the levels of carbon emissions. This proves that as far as environmental effects are concerned, fiscal policies regarding energy sector is successful in Turkey. Thus, the major finding of this study confirmed the validity of the fiscal policy-induced EKC hypothesis in the case of Turkey.
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ABSTRACT The present study investigates the long-run equilibrium relationship between banking sector’s profitability and its internal and external determinants such as inflation, growth and oil prices in Turkey. The study adopts two... more
ABSTRACT The present study investigates the long-run equilibrium relationship between banking sector’s profitability and its internal and external determinants such as inflation, growth and oil prices in Turkey. The study adopts two separate models in order to differentiate the direct and indirect effects of oil price changes on bank profitability. Results of the study provide evidence that oil price changes significantly affect the Turkish banking sector’s profitability indirectly through the channels of inflation. Moreover, it is found that bank profitability is affected by oil prices directly and negatively because of the decreased oil-related business lending. The causality test results indicate that there are unidirectional relationships running from oil prices to inflation and from inflation to banking sector’s profitability. It is believed that findings of the study can be generalized for oil importing and developing countries in order to initiate precautions against oil price changes.
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This article examines the role of climate change on tourist flows to Malta, Cyprus (north), and Cyprus (south) which are major tourist destinations in the Mediterranean. Results from time series analyses reveal that climate change... more
This article examines the role of climate change on tourist flows to Malta, Cyprus (north), and Cyprus (south) which are major tourist destinations in the Mediterranean. Results from time series analyses reveal that climate change positively impacts on foreign tourist flows to these island states. Thus, this finding is reasonable where we argue that global warming leads to increases in international tourist arrivals to small island states. This paper has also found statistically significant effects of overall energy consumption on foreign tourist arrivals to Malta and Cyprus revealing that energy efficiency policies are essential in small island states.
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The interaction among the energy unit prices, which are considered as the most effective factor on the realization of economic growth, and the distribution of this interaction throughout the manufacturing process have become popular... more
The interaction among the energy unit prices, which are considered as the most effective factor on the realization of economic growth, and the distribution of this interaction throughout the manufacturing process have become popular subjects in research recently. Especially, the scarcity of energy resources and the problems encountered in their supply make it necessary to utilize alternative energy resources. Thus, the realization of production using different energy inputs simultaneously results in an interaction between the factors and the spillover effect. Thus, in the study, alternative vector autoregressive M-GARCH (VAR [-MA] -MGARH) models would be predicted based on the spillover effect between the conditional variance and alternative energy input prices.
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This study investigates the role of external debt stock in Turkey, which has suffered from heavy (external and domestic) debt stock for many years. Annual data from 1960 to 2013 was analyzed using time series analysis in order to study... more
This study investigates the role of external debt stock in Turkey, which has suffered from heavy (external and domestic) debt stock for many years. Annual data from 1960 to 2013 was analyzed using time series analysis in order to study this. The results confirm the validity of the conventional environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) in the case of Turkey. However, this study also found that Turkey’s external debt stock did not influence the Turkish economy’s long-term EKC behavior. Fortunately, the results suggest that there are important interactions among external debt stock, CO2 emissions, energy consumption, and real income; that is, changes in external debt volume precede changes in these aggregates’ volumes.
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ABSTRACT This article investigates the effects of innovation attempts on the venture capital and investment activity in the cases of the selected European Union plus European Free Trade Agreement countries using annual panel data and by... more
ABSTRACT This article investigates the effects of innovation attempts on the venture capital and investment activity in the cases of the selected European Union plus European Free Trade Agreement countries using annual panel data and by controlling for real income growth and business sophistication. Our findings suggest that innovation has positively significant effects on venture capital in the cases without opt-out countries (United Kingdom and Denmark); however, these effects become negative in the cases with opt-out countries. Policy implications are provided in the conclusion section of this study.
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The aim of this study is to examine the role of oil price changes in the effects of services trade and tourism on real income growth in Turkey. Time series analysis using the 1960-2017 annual period has been adapted with this respect.... more
The aim of this study is to examine the role of oil price changes in the effects of services trade and tourism on real income growth in Turkey. Time series analysis using the 1960-2017 annual period has been adapted with this respect. Results confirm the long-term impacts of tourism and services trade sectors on real income growth in Turkey. Tourism and trade (both services and manufacturing) exert positively significant effects on the long-term performance of macroeconomic activity as measured by gross domestic product. Oil prices negatively impact on real income growth of Turkey. It is also found that oil prices negatively moderate the effects of foreign trade, services trade, and tourism on real income growth in Turkey. This finding reveals that significant effects of foreign trade, services trade, and tourism on real income are negatively influenced from oil price changes.
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The present study searches the effects of international oil prices on the performance of financial sector firms in the Amman Stock Exchange (ASE). Using the daily data which range from July 3, 2006 to April 12, 2018, we found that... more
The present study searches the effects of international oil prices on the performance of financial sector firms in the Amman Stock Exchange (ASE). Using the daily data which range from July 3, 2006 to April 12, 2018, we found that financial performance of the ASE firms is downturn during this data period and oil prices do not impact on these performances. It is found that downward movement of financial performances in the ASE is totally independent of the movements in international oil prices.
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The aim of this study is to search the role of tourism development in the environmental quality for the major tourist destination countries. Ecological footprint has been selected as a proxy of environmental quality with this respect... more
The aim of this study is to search the role of tourism development in the environmental quality for the major tourist destination countries. Ecological footprint has been selected as a proxy of environmental quality with this respect while top 10 tourist countries have been selected as samples of the study. Panel estimation results of this study show that the tourism-induced environmental Kuznets curve has been confirmed for these tourist countries which has an inverted U-shape. Tourism development in the selected countries exerts negatively significant effects on the levels of ecological footprints. Thus, this study concludes that tourism development in top tourist countries exert improving effect on the levels of environmental quality.
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ABSTRACT This study aims to investigate the spillover effects of the financial services sector development on the size of informal economic activity in the case of the European Union (EU) countries. The results from panel data analysis... more
ABSTRACT This study aims to investigate the spillover effects of the financial services sector development on the size of informal economic activity in the case of the European Union (EU) countries. The results from panel data analysis show that there exists an inverted U-shaped relationship between financial services and informal economic activity in the EU; that is, at the initial levels of the financial development, the reaction of informal economic activity is positive while it becomes negative at the further stages of the financial development in the EU. Thus, this study finds that financial services sector is a major contributor to changes in the volume of informal economic activity in the EU countries.
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ABSTRACT The present study investigates interactions between imports and energy consumption in the case of Turkey, which heavily depends on enervngy imports over the years. Empirical results reveal that energy consumption exerts... more
ABSTRACT The present study investigates interactions between imports and energy consumption in the case of Turkey, which heavily depends on enervngy imports over the years. Empirical results reveal that energy consumption exerts significant effects on imports both in the long-term and short-term periods. Results from causality, impulse responses, and variance decompositions do also show that energy consumption exerts significant effects on real income and real exchange rates in Turkey. The major findings of this study reveal that alternative local energy sources and renewable energy sources are needed in order to reduce foreign import dependency and current account deficits in Turkey.
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ABSTRACT This study investigates how economic, social, and political globalization indicators influence tourism development. We applied different approaches of panel regression to panel data from a sample including 133 countries between... more
ABSTRACT This study investigates how economic, social, and political globalization indicators influence tourism development. We applied different approaches of panel regression to panel data from a sample including 133 countries between 1995 and 2014. The results indicate that economic, social, and political globalization are significant factors for tourism development. Thus, this study proves that economic, social, and political integration of countries are significant driving forces behind their tourism development.
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ABSTRACT This study investigates the empirical relationship between energy consumption, international trade, and real income in Canada which has an important role in global energy and trade. It employs bound tests to level relationships... more
ABSTRACT This study investigates the empirical relationship between energy consumption, international trade, and real income in Canada which has an important role in global energy and trade. It employs bound tests to level relationships and conditional error correction models through ARDL specification to a new version of the Solow Growth model. Using annual data of the 1960–2010 period, results reveal a long-term relationship between energy consumption, international trade, and real income in Canada. It is also found that energy exporting activity is the determinant (driver) of energy consumption through the channel of real income and energy consumption is the determinant (driver) of exports through the channel of real income in the long term of the Canadian economy. Exports and energy use are the determinants (drivers) of real income in the long term of the Canadian economy; therefore, as conditional Granger causality tests suggest there is feedback relationship between energy consumption, international trade, and real income in the long term of the Canadian economy. The present study suggests that any energy conservation policies are likely to have negative influence on output and international trade in Canada.
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North Cyprus, experiencing the disadvantages of being small, based its development on services sector. In recent years, higher education sector has developed rapidly and contributed to the growth of the economy significantly. In this... more
North Cyprus, experiencing the disadvantages of being small, based its development on services sector. In recent years, higher education sector has developed rapidly and contributed to the growth of the economy significantly. In this study, using the 1990 input-output tables and the input-output technique, the impact of the expenditures of the Turkish students (TS), other overseas students (OOS) studying at the Eastern Mediterranean University (EMU) in the academic year of 1994-95 and their relatives visiting North Cyprus, on the gross output, income and imports is calculated. Their expenditures on goods and services are obtained through a survey. Using the results obtained from the study, the total impact of the expenditures of the total overseas students studying in all of the universities in North Cyprus are estimated. The findings showed the importance of the higher education sector in the development of the North Cyprus economy. Thus, priority should be given by the government ...
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Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) is a non – recognized state, which is not other than mainland Turkey (TR). Therefore, it is not able to develop its economy and moving to a worse economic structure as time passes. On the other... more
Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) is a non – recognized state, which is not other than mainland Turkey (TR). Therefore, it is not able to develop its economy and moving to a worse economic structure as time passes. On the other hand, South Greek Cypriot Administration (SGCA), which possesses the right of illegal “Republic of Cyprus” identity, still continues to carry on the embargoes and propaganda activities against Turkish Cypriots; even they use the aids provided by other countries or institutions under the name of “Republic of Cyprus”, which all cause huge economic cliffs between two states. TRNC is not able to use the advantages of being a small island in the Mediterranean Sea in its tourism sector because of its political isolation, which makes the trend of tourism sector completely depended on TR as in the whole economy. The study tries to analyze the place and significance of tourism sector in TRNC through regression analyses. Both regression analyses and Granger’s ...
After the Turkish intervention in 1974, Cyprus was divided into two parts, North (Turk-ish) and South (Greek). In 1983, the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) was estab-lished and a sort of loose monetary union between the TRNC... more
After the Turkish intervention in 1974, Cyprus was divided into two parts, North (Turk-ish) and South (Greek). In 1983, the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) was estab-lished and a sort of loose monetary union between the TRNC and Turkey started. The Turkish Lira (TL) replaced the Cyprus pound as the legal currency in the TRNC and a central bank – with no authority to issue money – was established. When Turkey tightened its monetary policy after sign-ing an agreement with the IMF in December 1999, this immediately affected the weak banks in the TRNC – along with Turkey – and some of them collapsed. This study aims to look at how the banking crises that started in Turkey affected the banking sector in the TRNC. How it started, what were the reasons behind it, what caused it, could it have been prevented or what measures needed to be taken to reduce the effects of such crises in the TRNC. Results show that monetary union and economic integration between a small country and a ...
This paper empirically investigates long-run equilibrium relationship between economic growth and tax revenues in Turkey by using the bounds test and Johansen technique for cointegration. Results suggest that the existence of long-run... more
This paper empirically investigates long-run equilibrium relationship between economic growth and tax revenues in Turkey by using the bounds test and Johansen technique for cointegration. Results suggest that the existence of long-run equilibrium relationship between economic growth and taxation cannot be confirmed in the case of Turkey as a result of the bounds and Johansen tests for cointegration. Thus, further investigation such as error-correction modeling and/or causality analysis cannot be preceded between these two variables in the case of the Turkish economy.
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The present study evaluates a carbon sequestration project for the three plant species in arid and semiarid regions of Iran. Results show that Haloxylon performed appropriately in the carbon sequestration process during the 6 years of the... more
The present study evaluates a carbon sequestration project for the three plant species in arid and semiarid regions of Iran. Results show that Haloxylon performed appropriately in the carbon sequestration process during the 6 years of the International Carbon Sequestration Project (ICSP). In addition to a high degree of carbon dioxide sequestration, Haloxylon shows high compatibility with severe environmental conditions and low maintenance costs. Financial and economic analysis demonstrated that the ICSP was justified from an economic perspective. The financial assessment showed that net present value (NPV) (US$1,098,022.70), internal rate of return (IRR) (21.53 %), and payback period (6 years) were in an acceptable range. The results of the economic analysis suggested an NPV of US$4,407,805.15 and an IRR of 50.63 %. Therefore, results of this study suggest that there are sufficient incentives for investors to participate in such kind of Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects.
Research Interests: Engineering, Environmental Economics, Climate Change Adaptation, Climate change policy, Carbon Dioxide, and 10 moreCarbon Sequestration, Environmental Monitoring, Soil carbon sequestration, Medicine, Investments, Iran, Biological Sciences, Environmental Sciences, CHEMICAL SCIENCES, and Climate Change in Developing Countries
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ABSTRACT This study investigates the relationship between tourism development and carbon emissions in Singapore through testing Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis, which is a major tourist destination state and whose economy is linked... more
ABSTRACT This study investigates the relationship between tourism development and carbon emissions in Singapore through testing Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis, which is a major tourist destination state and whose economy is linked with diverse energy resources, high-level urbanization, and rapid industrialization. Results reveal that tourism development and carbon emissions are in long-term equilibrium relationship; carbon dioxide emission converges to its long-term equilibrium level by 76.0% speed of adjustment through the channels of tourism, energy consumption, and output growth. Tourist arrivals have a negatively significant effects on carbon dioxide emission levels both in the long-term and the short-term periods. Finally, results of the Granger causality tests reveal that there is unidirectional causality that runs from tourism development to carbon emission growth in the long-term of the economy of Singapore. Therefore, the tourism-induced EKC hypothesis is confirmed in the case of Singapore.
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ABSTRACT The present study investigates the long-run equilibrium relationship among international tourism, energy consumption, and carbon dioxide emissions (CO2), and the direction of causality among these variables in the case of a small... more
ABSTRACT The present study investigates the long-run equilibrium relationship among international tourism, energy consumption, and carbon dioxide emissions (CO2), and the direction of causality among these variables in the case of a small island, Cyprus, which attracts more than 2 million international tourists every year. Results from "tourism-induced models" reveal that international tourism is in a long-run equilibrium relationship with energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions; international tourist arrivals have positive, statistically significant, and inelastic impacts on the level of energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissons (which means negative impact for climate change). Error correction models reveal that carbon dioxide emission converges to its long-term equilibrium path by 95.4 percent speed of adjustment through the channels of tourism and energy consumption while, on the other hand, energy consumption converges to its long-term equilibrium path by 13.5 percent speed of adjustment through the channels of tourism and CO2 emissions. Finally, the major finding from conditional Granger causality tests is that international tourism is a catalyst for energy consumption and for an increase in the level of carbon dioxide emissions in Cyprus.
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ABSTRACT This study investigates the relationship between oil price movements and macroeconomic aggregates, such as gross domestic product (GDP), consumer prices (CPI), and unemployment, for OECD countries. To do this, second generation... more
ABSTRACT This study investigates the relationship between oil price movements and macroeconomic aggregates, such as gross domestic product (GDP), consumer prices (CPI), and unemployment, for OECD countries. To do this, second generation econometric methods have been employed to panel data including panel unit root tests, panel cointegration tests, and panel long-run models. Panel unit root tests suggest that oil prices plus selected macroeconomic aggregates in OECD countries are non-stationary at levels but become stationary at first differences in the existence of multiple structural breaks. Five structural break points have successfully been investigated in the series of this study during panel unit root and panel cointegration tests. Durbin–H panel co-integration tests confirm that there is a long-term relationship between oil prices and those macroeconomic aggregates. On the other hand, results of this study reveal that the price of oil exerts statistically and negatively significant impacts on GDP, CPI, and unemployment in the case of OECD countries in general.
Research Interests: Engineering and Economics
ABSTRACT This study investigates the empirical relationship between energy consumption, international trade, and real income in the USA, which is the second largest energy consuming country following China. It employs bounds tests to... more
ABSTRACT This study investigates the empirical relationship between energy consumption, international trade, and real income in the USA, which is the second largest energy consuming country following China. It employs bounds tests to level relationships and conditional error correction models through Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag specification. Using annual data from the 1960 to 2010 period, the results reveal a long-term relationship between energy consumption, international trade, and real income in the USA. It is also found that energy consumption is determinant of exports, imports, and real income. Conditional Granger causality tests suggest that there is a feedback relationship between energy consumption, international trade, and real income in the long-term for the USA economy.
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Kuzey Kıbrıs Türk Cumhuriyeti Ekonomisinde Yapısal Gelişmeler.
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ABSTRACT This paper investigates the link between financial development and economic growth in a small island economy, North Cyprus. Bounds testing approaches as well as causality techniques are conducted for analyzing an extended version... more
ABSTRACT This paper investigates the link between financial development and economic growth in a small island economy, North Cyprus. Bounds testing approaches as well as causality techniques are conducted for analyzing an extended version of the augmented Solow growth model over the period 1977–2010. The empirical results suggest that investments in the financial and banking sectors are important drivers for real income growth in both the long and short terms of the North Cyprus economy. The findings also show that private credits in the financial sector do not cause output growth in either the long- or the short-term periods. The impact of physical capital for real income is not also found to be as strong as that of human capital in the case of the North Cyprus economy.