Impact of Climate Change on Twenty-First Century Crop Yields in the U.S.
"> Figure 1
<p>The corn yield over time for an example county (<b>a</b>) and detrended corn yield plotted against summer average temperature (<b>b</b>). The correlation of −0.71 is highly significant. Data is from the USDA [<a href="#B34-climate-07-00040" class="html-bibr">34</a>].</p> "> Figure 2
<p>Distributions of summer average temperature (<b>a</b>), heat waves (<b>b</b>), and killing degree days (<b>c</b>) for historical (green), future low-emissions RCP 4.5 scenario (blue) and future high-emissions RCP 8.5 scenario (red). Results are for the US corn growing region. Historical data from [<a href="#B35-climate-07-00040" class="html-bibr">35</a>] and future projections from [<a href="#B41-climate-07-00040" class="html-bibr">41</a>].</p> "> Figure 3
<p>Yield factor for C3 (green) and C4 (yellow) crops versus CO<math display="inline"><semantics> <msub> <mrow/> <mn>2</mn> </msub> </semantics></math> concentration. Crop productivity was acquired from [<a href="#B44-climate-07-00040" class="html-bibr">44</a>], in which results from the DSSAT4 models [<a href="#B45-climate-07-00040" class="html-bibr">45</a>] were interpolated based on CO<math display="inline"><semantics> <msub> <mrow/> <mn>2</mn> </msub> </semantics></math> enrichment experiments.</p> "> Figure 4
<p>Yield factor for C3 (<b>a</b>) and C4 (<b>b</b>) crops through 2100 for a low (blue) and high (red) emissions scenario. Crop productivity under CO<math display="inline"><semantics> <msub> <mrow/> <mn>2</mn> </msub> </semantics></math> concentrations was obtained from [<a href="#B44-climate-07-00040" class="html-bibr">44</a>], and CO<math display="inline"><semantics> <msub> <mrow/> <mn>2</mn> </msub> </semantics></math> concentrations for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are from [<a href="#B43-climate-07-00040" class="html-bibr">43</a>].</p> "> Figure 5
<p>The slopes of the linear regressions between corn (top), soybean (middle), and rice (bottom) yields and summer average temperature (left), heat waves (center), and killing degree days (right), in each US county with reported crop yields.</p> "> Figure 6
<p>The same as <a href="#climate-07-00040-f005" class="html-fig">Figure 5</a>, but for correlations between the crop yield and the temperature metric. Correlations below −0.49 are significant (<span class="html-italic">p</span> < 0.05) and below −0.59 are highly significant (<span class="html-italic">p</span> < 0.01).</p> "> Figure 7
<p>Projected US corn (top), soybean (middle), and rice (bottom) yields to 2100. The prediction scenarios include: (left) no technology improvement and no CO<math display="inline"><semantics> <msub> <mrow/> <mn>2</mn> </msub> </semantics></math> fertilization; (center) continuous technology improvement and no CO<math display="inline"><semantics> <msub> <mrow/> <mn>2</mn> </msub> </semantics></math> fertilization; and (right) continuous technology improvement with CO<math display="inline"><semantics> <msub> <mrow/> <mn>2</mn> </msub> </semantics></math> fertilization. The green dashed line is a linear extension of the 1970–2015 trend. Thin lines are yearly data, solid is the five-year running average.</p> "> Figure 7 Cont.
<p>Projected US corn (top), soybean (middle), and rice (bottom) yields to 2100. The prediction scenarios include: (left) no technology improvement and no CO<math display="inline"><semantics> <msub> <mrow/> <mn>2</mn> </msub> </semantics></math> fertilization; (center) continuous technology improvement and no CO<math display="inline"><semantics> <msub> <mrow/> <mn>2</mn> </msub> </semantics></math> fertilization; and (right) continuous technology improvement with CO<math display="inline"><semantics> <msub> <mrow/> <mn>2</mn> </msub> </semantics></math> fertilization. The green dashed line is a linear extension of the 1970–2015 trend. Thin lines are yearly data, solid is the five-year running average.</p> "> Figure 8
<p>Crop productivity averaged over 2096–2100, compared to a 2011 through 2015 baseline for a low (<b>a</b>) and high (<b>b</b>) emissions scenario. Estimates are based on only temperatures (red), only CO<math display="inline"><semantics> <msub> <mrow/> <mn>2</mn> </msub> </semantics></math> fertilization (teal), and both assuming compounding effects (purple).</p> "> Figure 9
<p>Crop yield of corn (top), soybeans (middle), and rice (bottom) for 2005–2015 (left), 2090–2100 without CO<math display="inline"><semantics> <msub> <mrow/> <mn>2</mn> </msub> </semantics></math> fertilization (center), and 2090–2100 with CO<math display="inline"><semantics> <msub> <mrow/> <mn>2</mn> </msub> </semantics></math> fertilization (right). Crop predictions are for a high-emissions scenario without future technology improvements.</p> ">
Abstract
:1. Introduction
1.1. Impacts of Climate Change and the Social Cost of Carbon
1.2. Warming Temperatures Impact Agriculture
2. Methods
3. Results
3.1. Historical Correlations and Regressions
3.2. Prediction of Future Crop Yield
4. Discussion
Funding
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Measurement | Definition | Units |
---|---|---|
Average Yearly high | Average of all daily highs in a year | C |
Average Yearly low | Average of all daily lows in a year | C |
Summer Average | Average of all daily max temps over months June, July, and August | C |
Warmest Day | The warmest high in the growing season | C |
Coldest Day | The coldest high in the growing season | C |
Warmest Night | The warmest low in the growing season | C |
Coldest Night | The coldest low in the growing season | C |
Heat Waves of highs | Frequency of 3 daily highs in a row >90th percentile | #/year |
Heat Waves of lows | Frequency of 3 daily lows in a row >90th percentile | #/year |
Cold Spells of lows | Frequency of 3 daily lows in a row <10th percentile | #/year |
Cold Spells of highs | Frequency of 3 daily highs in a row <10th percentile | #/year |
Warm Days | Days when daily high >90th percentile | days/year |
Cold Days | Days when daily high <10th percentile | days/year |
Warm Nights | Days when daily low >90th percentile | days/year |
Cold Nights | Days when daily low <10th percentile | days/year |
Tropical Nights | Frequency of daily lows >20 C (68 F) | days/year |
Frost Nights | Frequency of daily lows <0 C (32 F) | days/year |
Growing Degree Days | Summation of daily highs above 10 C (50 F) | C*days |
Killing Degree Days | Summation of daily highs above 29 C (68 F) [13] | C |
Precipitation | Total precipitation | mm/year |
Corn | Soybeans | Rice | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Historical yield change/decade (%) | 23.7 | 17.7 | 17.4 | |||
Future: low emissions | no CO | with CO | no CO | with CO | no CO | with CO |
Yield change/decade (%) | −1.77 | −1.50 | −1.20 | +0.002 | −0.367 | 0.860 |
Projected yield diff to steady climate (%) | 87.9 | 90.0 | 92.3 | 101 | 98.6 | 108 |
Monetary loss or gain (billion 2019 US$) | −12.7 | −10.5 | −5.00 | +0.717 | −0.343 | +1.99 |
Future: high emissions | no CO | with CO | no CO | with CO | no CO | with CO |
Yield change/decade (%) | −3.78 | −3.41 | −2.40 | 0.96 | −0.830 | 3.09 |
Projected yield diff to steady climate (%) | 76.8 | 80.0 | 84.6 | 111 | 95.7 | 126 |
Monetary loss or gain (billion 2019 US$) | −24.3 | −21.0 | −10.0 | +7.29 | −1.06 | +6.42 |
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Petersen, L.K. Impact of Climate Change on Twenty-First Century Crop Yields in the U.S. Climate 2019, 7, 40. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli7030040
Petersen LK. Impact of Climate Change on Twenty-First Century Crop Yields in the U.S. Climate. 2019; 7(3):40. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli7030040
Chicago/Turabian StylePetersen, Lillian Kay. 2019. "Impact of Climate Change on Twenty-First Century Crop Yields in the U.S." Climate 7, no. 3: 40. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli7030040