Clustering Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclone Tracks by the Standard Deviational Ellipse
<p>(<b>a1</b>), (<b>b1</b>) and (<b>c1</b>) are the examples of three storm tracks and their standard deviational ellipses; (<b>a2</b>), (<b>b2</b>) and (<b>c2</b>) illustrate five properties of corresponding standard deviational ellipse.</p> "> Figure 1 Cont.
<p>(<b>a1</b>), (<b>b1</b>) and (<b>c1</b>) are the examples of three storm tracks and their standard deviational ellipses; (<b>a2</b>), (<b>b2</b>) and (<b>c2</b>) illustrate five properties of corresponding standard deviational ellipse.</p> "> Figure 2
<p>Variation of mean silhouette (<b>top</b>) and number of negative silhouettes (<b>bottom</b>) with the number of clusters.</p> "> Figure 3
<p>Genesis location (red circle) and track (green line) of cyclones of four clusters.</p> "> Figure 4
<p>Cumulative density of genesis location (first position) in each cluster.</p> "> Figure 5
<p>Centroid location (small dots) and standard deviational ellipse (blue) of each cyclone of four clusters. The dark red line shows the mean ellipse and its center (red cross mark) of each cluster.</p> "> Figure 6
<p>Box plot of cyclone intensity of cyclones in each cluster and all cyclones. The upper and lower bounds of the box indicate the 75 and 25 percentiles of the distribution, respectively. The mean (diamond mark), median (bar at the middle of the box), and the minimum-maximum bound (dash line) of each cluster are also shown in the figure.</p> "> Figure 7
<p>Box plot of the lifespan of cyclones in each cluster and all cyclones. The upper and lower bounds of the box indicate the 75 and 25 percentiles of the distribution, respectively. The mean (diamond mark), median (bar at the middle of the box), minimum-maximum bound (dash line), and outliers (red plus) of each cluster are also shown in the figure.</p> "> Figure 8
<p>Box plot of track length of cyclones in each cluster and all cyclones. The upper and lower bounds of the box indicate the 75 and 25 percentiles of the distribution, respectively. The mean (diamond mark), median (bar at the middle of the box), minimum-maximum bound (dash line), and outliers (red plus) of each cluster are also shown in the figure.</p> "> Figure 9
<p>Box plot of the rotation angle of deviational ellipses in each cluster and all cyclones. The upper and lower bounds of the box indicate the 75 and 25 percentiles of the distribution, respectively. The mean (diamond mark), median (bar at the middle of the box), minimum-maximum bound (dash line), and outliers (red plus) of each cluster are also shown in the figure.</p> "> Figure 10
<p>Box plot of ACE of cyclones in each cluster and all cyclones. The upper and lower bounds of the box indicate the 75 and 25 percentiles of the distribution, respectively. The mean (diamond mark), median (bar at the middle of the box), minimum-maximum bound (dash line), and outliers (red plus) of each cluster are also shown in the figure.</p> "> Figure 11
<p>The relative frequency of TCs by month in each cluster and as a whole.</p> "> Figure 12
<p>Box plot of tropical cyclone month in each cluster and all cyclones. The upper and lower bounds of the box indicate the 75 and 25 percentiles of the distribution, respectively. The mean (diamond mark), median (bar at the middle of the box), minimum-maximum bound (dash line), and outliers (red plus) of each cluster are also shown in the figure.</p> "> Figure 13
<p>The landfall locations with the cyclone categories at landfall in each cluster.</p> "> Figure 14
<p>The number of tropical cyclone per year in each cluster and for all cyclones. Red lines and green lines indicate simple linear regression curves and the curves of Savitzky-Golay filter respectively.</p> "> Figure 15
<p>Accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) per year in each cluster and for all cyclones. Red lines and green lines indicate simple linear regression curves and the curves of Savitzky-Golay filter respectively.</p> "> Figure 16
<p>Composite of daily OLR anomalies two days prior to the TC genesis. The color bar shows the magnitude of the OLR anomalies in Wm<sup>−2</sup>. Yellow, light green, and dark green contours show the 25, 50, and 75% KDEs of TC genesis locations in each cluster, respectively.</p> "> Figure 17
<p>Box plot of the daily OLR two days prior to TC genesis in each cluster and all TCs. The upper and lower bounds of the box indicate the 75 and 25 percentiles of the distribution, respectively. The mean (diamond mark), median (bar at the middle of the box), and minimum-maximum bound (dash line) of each cluster are also shown in the figure.</p> "> Figure 18
<p>Composite of weekly SSTA prior to the TC genesis. The color bar shows the magnitude of the SST anomalies in °C. Yellow, light green, and dark green contours show the 25, 50, and 75% KDEs of TCs genesis location in each cluster, respectively.</p> "> Figure 19
<p>Box plot of the weekly SST prior to TC genesis in each cluster and all TCs. The upper and lower bounds of the box indicate the 75 and 25 percentiles of the distribution, respectively. The mean (diamond mark), median (bar at the middle of the box), minimum-maximum bound (dash line), and outliers (star marks) of each cluster are also shown in the figure.</p> ">
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Data and Methodology
2.1. Data
2.2. Clustering Process
2.3. Analysis of Large-Scale Climate Variabilities
2.4. Statistical Significance Test
3. Results and Discussion
3.1. Genesis Location and Track Shape
3.2. Cluster Centroids and Properties
3.3. Cyclone Intensity, Track Length, Rotation, and Lifespan
3.4. Seasonality
3.5. Landfall
3.6. Trend Analysis
3.7. Large-Scale Environmental Variabilities and TC Genesis
3.8. Statistical Significance of the Clusters
4. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Clusters | Mean X Genesis | Mean Y Genesis | Genesis X Range | Genesis Y Range | Number of Tracks |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 115.0° E | 11.4° S | 79.4° E–134.9° E | 2.8° S–19.1° S | 230 |
2 | 78.3° E | 10.5° S | 38.0° E–127.0° E | 4.4° S–18.2° S | 116 |
3 | 64.7° E | 12.5° S | 35.1° E–108.6° E | 2.5° S–34.7°S | 195 |
4 | 84.6° E | 8.6° N | 56.5° E–100.0° E | 2.0° N–20.2° N | 51 |
Cluster No. | Centroid X (° E) | Centroid Y (° N/° S) | Variance X (°) | Variance Y (°) | Variance XY (°) | Number of Tracks |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 110.34° E | 15.58° S | 23.86 | 10.01 | 3.15 | 230 |
2 | 67.10° E | 19.40° S | 50.69 | 40.1 | 17.33 | 116 |
3 | 59.40° E | 16.77° S | 29.92 | 9.19 | 3.08 | 195 |
4 | 79.87° E | 14.01° N | 11.81 | 4.39 | −1.95 | 51 |
Cluster | N | Landfalls | Landfall Percentage | Category 1 | Category 2 | Category 3 | Category 4 | Cat 1–4 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
N | % | N | % | N | % | N | % | N | % | ||||
1 | 230 | 119 | 51.73 | 8 | 6.72 | 4 | 3.36 | 2 | 1.68 | 3 | 2.52 | 17 | 14.28 |
2 | 116 | 39 | 33.62 | 6 | 15.38 | 6 | 15.38 | 1 | 2.56 | 1 | 2.56 | 14 | 35.89 |
3 | 195 | 91 | 46.67 | 11 | 12.09 | 5 | 5.49 | 8 | 8.79 | 1 | 1.1 | 25 | 27.47 |
4 | 51 | 43 | 84.31 | 2 | 4.65 | 3 | 6.98 | 1 | 2.33 | 0 | 0.00 | 6 | 13.95 |
All | 592 | 292 | 49.32 | 27 | 9.25 | 18 | 6.16 | 12 | 4.11 | 5 | 1.71 | 62 | 21.23 |
Variables | Unit | Cluster 1 | Cluster 2 | Cluster 3 | Cluster 4 | H | p-Value |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Intensity | knots | 75 | 90 | 63.5 | 52.5 | 39.45 | 0.0001 |
Rotation angle | Degree | 74.98 | 50.45 | 79.93 | 101.12 | 26.02 | 0.00009 |
Life span | Days | 7 | 12 | 8 | 5.5 | 121.24 | 0.00000 |
Track Length | km | 2863 | 5373 | 3245 | 1702 | 183.43 | 0.00000 |
ACE | Kt2 | 65,652 | 133,247 | 55,550 | 30,737 | 75.57 | 0.00000 |
SST | °C | 29.27 | 28.78 | 28.61 | 29.00 | 84.59 | 0.00000 |
OLR | Wm−2 | 179.5 | 192.4 | 192 | 171.9 | 11.73 | 0.0577 |
Clusters | C1 | C2 | C2 | C3 | C3 | C4 | C1 | C3 | C1 | C4 | C2 | C4 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
U | p | U | p | U | p | U | p | U | p | U | p | ||
Variables | Intensity | 9772 | 0.000 | 6827 | 0.00 | 4121 | 0.079 | 18,516 | 0.002 | 4197 | 0.001 | 1590 | 0.00 |
Rotation angle | 9965 | 0.000 | 7256 | 0.00 | 4277 | 0.099 | 19,717 | 0.046 | 4699 | 0.029 | 1985 | 0.00 | |
Life span | 5043 | 0.000 | 6172 | 0.00 | 2376 | 0.000 | 18,690 | 0.004 | 3320 | 0.000 | 319 | 0.00 | |
Track Length | 3210 | 0.000 | 3578 | 0.00 | 2163 | 0.000 | 19,671 | 0.030 | 2829 | 0.000 | 69 | 0.00 | |
Seasonality | 9679 | 0.000 | 8361 | 0.00 | 2448 | 0.000 | 21,692 | 0.395 | 2556 | 0.000 | 917 | 0.00 | |
ACE | 7011 | 0.000 | 5689 | 0.00 | 3649 | 0.004 | 20,503 | 0.112 | 3907 | 0.000 | 933 | 0.00 | |
SST | 7622 | 0.000 | 8779 | 0.007 | 3234 | 0.000 | 10,800 | 0.000 | 4566 | 0.011 | 2308 | 0.02 | |
OLR | 12,023 | 0.067 | 11,188 | 0.437 | 4034 | 0.019 | 20,006 | 0.028 | 5221 | 0.110 | 2406 | 0.03 |
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Rahman, M.S.; Yang, R.; Di, L. Clustering Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclone Tracks by the Standard Deviational Ellipse. Climate 2018, 6, 39. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli6020039
Rahman MS, Yang R, Di L. Clustering Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclone Tracks by the Standard Deviational Ellipse. Climate. 2018; 6(2):39. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli6020039
Chicago/Turabian StyleRahman, Md. Shahinoor, Ruixin Yang, and Liping Di. 2018. "Clustering Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclone Tracks by the Standard Deviational Ellipse" Climate 6, no. 2: 39. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli6020039