Jacek Kugler

... Such a strategy would not have advanced all US goals, such as the reduction of Iraq's nuclear potential. ... THE US DECISION TO LAUNCH 'DESERT STORM' 65 ... nature.21 However individual in employment, framing effects are not arbitrary but rather fairly systematic in operation. ...

So much has been done in the name of nuclear deterrence, so much destructive power built by ourselves and the Russians that it may seem rather late in the day, not to say absurd, to wonder whether or not mutual deterrence really occurs and ask what evidence can be adduced to prove it. Yet such a question may be essential

... Danilovic explores the logical structures by which power par-ity and status inconsistency arguments complement and interact with one an-other ... We are particularly grateful to Doris Fuchs, who coordinated the academic efforts, to Sandra Seymore, who tirelessly kept this project ...

ABSTRACT This work presents a clear picture of the domestic transformation which has followed the breakup of the Soviet Union. It demonstrates that the integrity of the Soviet Union was secondary to the integrity of Russia. The contest over economic reform was central in generating the Parliamentary Revolt in 1993 and in influencing the elections of 1996. However, it was only partially involved in the coup against Gorbachev in 1991 and was secondary in the development of the succession crisis in Chechnya. Yeltsin's political brilliance was in recognizing that support for reform by itself was insufficient to ensure the strength of the Presidency or even his reelection. A nationalistic posture on Russia did not contradict his anti‐nationalistic stance toward the Soviet Union. Our analysis shows that Yeltsin was able to strengthen the Presidency and ensure political stability because he adroitly cultivated support along reformist and nationalistic dimensions.

ABSTRACT We systematically analyze and forecast key developments before and during the Kosovo Crisis. Prior to the air campaign, we anticipated the breakdown of negotiations at Rambouillet and the subsequent initiation of hostilities. Without Russia as a mediator, we predicted that Milosevic would engage in military activity and strengthen his domestic control. As the war was being waged, we took a second look at settlement opportunities. Russia was identified as the key mediator needed to reach a settlement We show that a European‐led settlement offered promising prospects for peace. Finally, we demonstrate that the settlement achieved after the air war was not much different than the settlement that could have been achieved at Rambouillet The settlement on Kosovo offers only short‐term stability. To gain long‐term stability, the Serbians must either agree to the existing ethnic makeup in Kosovo or allow it to be partitioned. Otherwise, conflict in this region will likely revive.

The Nice and Laeken Declarations put at the top of the agenda of EU reform the attainment of a clearer delimitation of the EU powers. This project is taking place in the context of a system of competences which is problematic in various senses. One of the items falling within the mandate of the Convention on the future of Europe includes the reform of the principle of subsidiarity. The emerging proposals for the reform of subsidiarity are, however, more directed towards legitimacy deficits than towards tensions in the competence system. Indeed, parallel to the competences issue, the claim for a larger role for national parliaments in the EU has come to intersect with the competence dossier, and to a larger extent this claim has reconstructed subsidiarity procedures into an answer to legitimacy deficiencies in the EU.

In the past two years demographic studies has boomed as population has increasingly been linked to everything from financial disasters and revolutions to more peaceful movements toward democratization. The original version of this article, published in 2010, was created to give a broad understanding of the field with some possible future expectations. Due to political demography's increased popularity, it is now in need of a reevaluation and refocus to help illustrate some of these exciting new research agendas and their future linkages. Political demography studies the dynamic connections among politics, fertility, mortality, and migration, taking into consideration several population characteristics including age, gender, ethnic and religious composition, and spatial distribution. Weiner (1971:597) provides a far more complete and comprehensive definition: Political demography is the study of the size, composition, and distribution of population in relation to both government ...

This document serves as a codebook for the Relative Political Performance Data Set version 2.1, which consists of three measures: Relative Political Extraction (RPE), Relative Political Reach (RPR), and Relative Political Allocation (RPA). The definition and use of Relative Political Performance is generally discussed in Organski and Kugler (1980), Arbetman and Kugler (1997), Kugler and Tammen (2012). To acquire the data sets, components of RPE, RPR and RPA, and the detailed codebook, please visit: www.performanceofnations.org The recommended citation for these data sets is: Kugler, Jacek and Ronald Tammen (2012). Performance of Nations. Lanham: Rowman and Littlefield.

ABSTRACT This research addresses a relatively unexplored but vitally important issue: How and why do nations recover after wars? Our goal is to identify the elements that systematically accelerate postwar recovery. We want to formally assess the impact of foreign aid and investment, human capital, demographic changes, and most importantly the political capacity of governments on post war recovery rates. This inquiry is motivated by inconsistencies emerging from past empirical and theoretical works. Previous empirical work identified the existence of a Phoenix Factor among the most developed nations traumatized by major war (Germany, Japan, Italy, or France). Despite massive economic and demographic losses, these societies recovered their previous economic standing and productivity within one generation after both World War I and II. Yet, these uniform patterns of recovery seemingly do not apply to developing nations. Recent empirical assessments of postwar recovery that combine civil and international wars suggest that the Phoenix Factor pattern applies to developed societies and some developing societies, but does not hold in most developing societies. The open question is why? Consistent with the Phoenix Factor, the Neoclassical Growth model anticipates fast recovery following wars but does not account for the possibility of protracted losses. Given the mixed empirical record we seek a possible explanation by modifying the Overlapping Generation (OLG) Model that allows multiple steady states during recovery. At one extreme OLG anticipate rapid recovery, and at the other extreme permit postwar collapse leading to a poverty trap. The intellectual objective is to identify and explain why some developing societies encounter great difficulties in their postwar recovery efforts, while others recover within a generation their previous productivity.

ABSTRACT Selectorate theory posits that within each society, there is a political selectorate containing a winning coalition. This coalition, comprised of societal individuals, groups, and entities, selects the national leader whose aim is political survival. The original version of the theory suggested that the selectorate expands in step with the ability of the leader to provide private or public goods to its supporters in various combinations. This study expands selectorate theory to the recent revolutions across Middle East and North Africa (MENA). With various regimes optimizing economic allocations, we believe that political survival in MENA societies is gained and maintained by concurrently fulfilling rising religious preferences. Stable MENA regimes also meet religious demands. Thus, leaders that ignore religious tides do so at their own peril. Addressing religious demands as the selectorate expands maximizes stability and reduces autocratic tendencies. We present selectorate and stakeholder assessments of six MENA societies during the Arab Spring. We find that selectorate expansion, regime stability, and regime survival depend as much on religiosity as on private–public payoffs optimization. Our results have striking implications for democratic preference promulgation and regime stability.

... Such a theory will argue that population growth in China will decline rapidly as a ... Com-pared with India, China has done better in reducing population growth in the country-side ... times such as the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revol-ution, when economic growth tends ...

... Policy fail-ure and political survival: The contribution of political institutions. Journal of Conflict Resolution 43 (2):147-161. Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce, and Randolph M. Siverson. 1995. ... In the name of democracy. Berkeley: University of California Press. Casper, Gretchen. 1995. ...

ABSTRACT Research on conflict traditionally focuses on its initiation, duration, and severity, but seldom on its consequences. Yet, demographic and economic recovery from the consequences of war lasts far longer and may be more devastating than the waging war. Our concern is with war losses and post-war recovery leading to convergence with pre-war performance. To test this proposition, we choose the most severe international and civil wars after 1920. We find that all belligerents recover or overtake demographic losses incurred in war. Economic assessments differ. The most-developed belligerents recover like a "phoenix" from immense destruction in one generation. For less-developed societies, the outcomes are mixed. The less-developed belligerents recover only a portion of their pre-war performance. The least-developed societies suffer the most and fall into lasting poverty traps. The overlapping generation growth model accounts for such differences in recovery rates based on pre-war performance challenging arguments from Solow's neoclassical growth perspective. Our results imply that foreign aid is incidental to the post-war convergence for the most-developed societies, can prompt recovery for the less-developed societies, and is not effective—unless it is massive and sustained—for the leastdeveloped societies. World War II may provide a poor guide to current post-war challenges in Iraq and in Afghanistan.

We systematically analyze and forecast key developments before and during the Kosovo Crisis. Prior to the air campaign, we anticipated the breakdown of negotiations at Rambouillet and the subsequent initiation of hostilities. Without Russia as a mediator, we predicted that Milosevic would engage in military activity and strengthen his domestic control. As the war was being waged, we took a

... Yi Feng a , Jacek Kugler a * , Siddharth Swaminathan b & Paul J. Zak a pages 423-441. ... Extending formal results presented in previous work (Feng, Kugler, and Zak, 2000a12. Feng, Yi, Kugler,Jacek and Zak, Paul J. 2000a. The Politics of Fertility and Economic Development. ...

ABSTRACT This work presents a clear picture of the domestic transformation which has followed the breakup of the Soviet Union. It demonstrates that the integrity of the Soviet Union was secondary to the integrity of Russia. The contest over economic reform was central in generating the Parliamentary Revolt in 1993 and in influencing the elections of 1996. However, it was only partially involved in the coup against Gorbachev in 1991 and was secondary in the development of the succession crisis in Chechnya. Yeltsin's political brilliance was in recognizing that support for reform by itself was insufficient to ensure the strength of the Presidency or even his reelection. A nationalistic posture on Russia did not contradict his anti‐nationalistic stance toward the Soviet Union. Our analysis shows that Yeltsin was able to strengthen the Presidency and ensure political stability because he adroitly cultivated support along reformist and nationalistic dimensions.

Today, financial crisis once again threatens the unity among member states and future of the European Union. The magnitude of the problem is so grave that observers and analysts have concluded a big decision must be made regarding fiscal union (thus political union) to save EMU. " Is this really the end of the road for Eurozone? " Using Power Transition theory, our analysis shows that trust and relative political capabilities are essential to build a stable Union. While it is clear that the center of global politics is shifting away from Europe and the United States to the Asian giants—the transition from West to East can be effectively planned so that the future units are satisfied with each other rather than distrustful, dissatisfied, and contentious. The slowdown of integration is not simply a regional problem with serious consequences for the economic stability of Europe. Far more importantly, our analysis suggests that the process of integration that has reduced tensions within a region previously characterized by major wars may be declining and that this in and of itself could reset the stage not only for regional confrontations but increase the likelihood that global wars may once more be considered as means to solve disputes. The European Union cannot afford to move from the cooperative contest to a confrontational one where solutions are arrived at by force rather than reason. Therefore, the challenge for European leaders is to resolve the current crisis in the EMU and build upon it a reinvigorated union that once more provides a path for complete regional integration.