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Salman  Sarwat

    Salman Sarwat

    Bbsul, COMMERCE, Faculty Member
    This paper aims to evaluate the impact of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) on Company’s Financial Performance (CFP) operating or based in Pakistan. Emerging CSR practices in the developed world have raised question about the... more
    This paper aims to evaluate the impact of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) on Company’s Financial Performance (CFP) operating or based in Pakistan. Emerging CSR practices in the developed world have raised question about the inclination of the developing world towards CSR. Pakistan being a developing country, its corporate sector is more concerned about profit maximization than CSR. Various studies around the globe have established that CSR has a positive impact on the financial performance of a company. In this study, secondary data has been used from audited annual reports of 26 companies listed in KSE of similar size from different sectors, which are striving towards better CSR. The data ranges from 2008 to 2012 (5 years). The researchers have used Stakeholder theory to measure CSR; stakeholders include Government, Employees, Suppliers, Creditors, Shareholders and Customers. Return on Asset (ROA) was used as a surrogate for Company’s financial performance (CFP). The result o...
    Research Interests:
    Global financial crisis 2008 has severely impacted on banks and their risk profile. Huge losses were incurred due to systematic risk factors. However severity of these losses differs from one region to another region and from one country... more
    Global financial crisis 2008 has severely impacted on banks and their risk profile. Huge losses were incurred due to systematic risk factors. However severity of these losses differs from one region to another region and from one country to another country. In Pakistan, consumer banking is the most affected banking business that has faced considerable losses during and after the financial crisis of 2008, because of the unexpected rise in the nonperforming loans. This study explores the factors of market risk, especially systematic part. It is noticed through studying the literature review that in 2008, when the financial crisis started influencing the banking system in Pakistan, the SBP had substantially increased the interest rate to control the hyperinflation in the country. Literature also indicates that financial crisis of 2008 has also impacted the GDP growth rate of Pakistan. Unemployment rate is another relevant variable in this context. This study assesses the significance o...
    This article aims to investigate the relationship between working capital management and firm performance in an emerging market. The analysis is done over a long window spanning across 2000–2014 by using ordinary least square (OLS),... more
    This article aims to investigate the relationship between working capital management and firm performance in an emerging market. The analysis is done over a long window spanning across 2000–2014 by using ordinary least square (OLS), fixed- and random-effects model and generalized method of moments (GMM) on 2,327 firm-year observations, a panel data of 179 companies listed on the S&P BSE 500 Index of Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE). For robustness, in addition to accounting performance, market-based performance measure has also been employed to measure firm performance. This study based on India finds a negative relationship between the working capital management and firm performance, necessitating the need to efficiently manage the working capital for enhanced profitability.
    The aim of this study is also to find out the component wise connection between the effective management of working capital and productivity in the context of Pakistan’s cement sector. There are studies proving both, relevancy and... more
    The aim of this study is also to find out the component wise connection between the effective management of working capital and productivity in the context of Pakistan’s cement sector. There are studies proving both, relevancy and irrelevancy of working capital management with profitability, but most of the studies advocate an inverse relationship between liquidity and profitability. Thus, a firm should maintain a delicate balance of working capital so that smooth operation can be achieved without disturbing the profitability. Panel data of 18 companies listed in KSE from cement sector from 2007 to 2011 is collected. Profitability of Companies, being dependent variable, is gauged through Return on assets (ROA). Efficiency of working capital management is calculated through six accounting ratios. Panel Least square method of regression is applied for analysis. Results suggest that assets turnover ratio (ATO), current ratio (CR) and size of the firm (SLS) have positive and significant...
    Profitability, which is estimated by the company's gross profits to assets i.e. Revenue (R) less cost of good-sold (COGS) has approximately the same power as a book to market (B/M) in forecasting the stock's average return... more
    Profitability, which is estimated by the company's gross profits to assets i.e. Revenue (R) less cost of good-sold (COGS) has approximately the same power as a book to market (B/M) in forecasting the stock's average return in 'cross-section'. Profitable companies engender significantly greater average returns as compared to unprofitable companies, even with the greater valuation ratios of the company. Thus, this study endeavors to explore either the gross profitability anomaly exists in the 'Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX)' and examined through famous asset pricing models i.e. CAPM, FF (three-factor & five-factor) model in the (PSX). Data set of listed-delisted companies are gathered from the period (2000-2018) through "Thomson Reuters Data Stream" and (PSX). Decile portfolios of the companies are constructed for analysis of time-series techniques. Equally (EW) and value-weighted (VW) gross profitability based portfolios are developed to examine the robustness of the sorted portfolio. Generalized method of moments (GMM) and Wald Test are utilized. The empirical time series analysis depicts the findings with significant evidence that gross profitability anomaly exists and yields higher returns in (PSX). Therefore, it can be concluded from the results that all three asset pricing (CAPM, FF-three & five-factor) models are misspecified models in (PSX) and there are other factors such as gross profitability for the prediction of the stocks.
    The research aims to analyze the influence of the gold price, oil price and financial risk on Islamic and conventional securities on comparative as well as on individual bases. Monthly prices of oil and gold are extracted from the... more
    The research aims to analyze the influence of the gold price, oil price and financial risk on Islamic and conventional securities on comparative as well as on individual bases. Monthly prices of oil and gold are extracted from the websites of West Texas Intermediate and World Gold Council, whereas time series data for financial risk is derived from the Volatility Index of S&P 500.  All these variables are found to be cointegrated at the first difference with both the Dow Jones indices, which means that gold, oil and financial risk have long term association with Islamic and conventional stocks. In order to find the direction and magnitude, this study applied the Newey-West HAC test, which also handles autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity issues in the time series data. The findings of the study suggest that gold prices are positively associated whereas oil prices and financial risk are negatively associated with both types of securities. Though the direction of the nexus is simila...
    This study aims to investigate potential contingent factors which influence Management Accounting (MA) and Company Performance (CP) in SMEs operating in the manufacturing sector of Pakistan. Data was collected from 102 SMEs by using... more
    This study aims to investigate potential contingent factors which influence Management Accounting (MA) and Company Performance (CP) in SMEs operating in the manufacturing sector of Pakistan. Data was collected from 102 SMEs by using questionnaire, which was adopted from the various researches. Management Accounting (MA) and Company Performance (CP) are endogenous variables, whereas Advanced Manufacturing Technology (AMT), Firm Size (FS), Qualified Accountants (QA), Strategy (STA) and Structure (STR) are exogenous variables. Reliability and validity was analyzed through Exploratory and Confirmatory factor analysis respectively. AMOS 23 was used to test the relevancy and hypotheses of designed contingency model by structural equation modeling (SEM). The results revealed that advanced manufacturing technology (AMT) and structure (STR) are significant contingent factors that have a positive impact on management accounting (MA). Firm size (FS) has a significant but negative impact on company performance (CP) whereas strategy (STA) has a significant and positive impact on company performance (CP). Qualified accountant shows insignificant impact on management accounting, whereas management accounting (MA) and structure have also shown insignificant impact on company's performance. This research has filled the knowledge gap found in the literature with regards to SMEs in Pakistan. I t w ill create awareness among the SMEs to focus on contingent variables and their effect on MA and performance, which ultimately enables the SMEs to operate efficiently in the competitive environment. This research will also help the SMEs owners, policy makers and practitioners in decision making.
    This study aims to find out the factors influencing the practices specially implementation of Activity Based Accounting (ABC) in the cement sector of Pakistan. The study is based on primary data collected through convenience sampling... more
    This study aims to find out the factors influencing the practices specially implementation of Activity Based Accounting (ABC) in the cement sector of Pakistan. The study is based on primary data collected through convenience sampling technique. Closed ended questionnaire has been used as data collection instrument, the reliability of which was checked through Cronbach’s Alpha. The econometric tool of binary logistic model was applied for the identification of factors. ABC method classifies costs, based on various cost drivers. By implementing ABC system, indirect costs can be precisely allocated to various products manufactured in an organization; in doing so, an organization can go for cost reduction by controlling overheads. Organizational size, organizational structure, organizational culture, management behavior and technical issues were identified from preliminary literature review as important factors to have an influence on ABC practices in an organization. These factors were...
    Adverse changes in environmental conditions due to unprecedented industrialization have been attracting the attention of policymakers, researchers, and activists. For developing nations like Pakistan, sustainability issues become even... more
    Adverse changes in environmental conditions due to unprecedented industrialization have been attracting the attention of policymakers, researchers, and activists. For developing nations like Pakistan, sustainability issues become even more severe because of unplanned growth and lack of resources. In this study, we have applied the QARDL model to analyze the impact of renewable energy, institutional quality, tourism, and GDP on the ecological footprint in Pakistan from 1995 to 2017. The results of this study suggest that increased utilization of renewable energy and tourism improve the environment in Pakistan, whereas institutional quality and GDP are positive and significant at all quantiles, revealing that upsurge in GDP and institutional quality are directly related to environmental conditions at all the quantiles. These results also validate the presence of the Environmental Kuznets Curve in Pakistan. The government of Pakistan can play a notable part in attaining sustainability by efficient management of the environment through promoting sustainable tourism, utilization of renewable energy, and enhancement of institutional quality.
    This study examines the time-varying feature of Developed stock markets to identify diversification opportunities. For this purpose, we sample 21 developed countries ranging from 2000-2018 from the Pacific Region, Northern Europe, Western... more
    This study examines the time-varying feature of Developed stock markets to identify diversification opportunities. For this purpose, we sample 21 developed countries ranging from 2000-2018 from the Pacific Region, Northern Europe, Western Europe, Southern Europe, and G7, with each region consisting of a panel with one home country and other as remaining countries portfolio. We applied Panel co-integration and VECM to test the stock market integration and diversification opportunities in short and long run. Our results indicate few short and long-run diversification opportunities for international investors in the post-crisis period that are more relevant. Canada, Japan, and Italy have long-run opportunities for diversification in the G7, and only Japan has short-run opportunities for diversification. Hong Kong and Japan have short-and long-run opportunities for diversification in the Pacific region. In the Northern Europe region, we have only the short-run diversification option of ...
    For the last couple of decades, consumer awareness and strict environmental policies create pressure on the corporate sector to adopt sustainable practices, reducing the harmful effect on environmental sustainability. This study aims to... more
    For the last couple of decades, consumer awareness and strict environmental policies create pressure on the corporate sector to adopt sustainable practices, reducing the harmful effect on environmental sustainability. This study aims to assess the procedures and significance of green practices in food supply chains. The study used internal environmental management (IEM), the greens information system (GIS), green manufacturing (GM), green design and packaging (GDP), and transportation (GT) as explanatory variables, while the data is gathered from 267 food processing firms located in China and Pakistan to test hypotheses through PLS-SEM modeling. The findings revealed that internal environmental management and green information systems are positively and strongly associated with adopting green supply chain practices. The results also show that green practices in the food supply chain have a significant role in increasing organizational performance. In last, the study has drawn policy...
    This paper aims to validate the EKC hypothesis for BRICS countries, in the presence of natural resources, renewable energy, and globalization factors. FMOLS, DOLS, Method of Moments Quantile Regression (MMQR), and heterogeneous panel... more
    This paper aims to validate the EKC hypothesis for BRICS countries, in the presence of natural resources, renewable energy, and globalization factors. FMOLS, DOLS, Method of Moments Quantile Regression (MMQR), and heterogeneous panel causality tests have been applied on the BRICS panel from 1990 to 2014. According to FMOLS and DOLS techniques, the EKC hypothesis does exist in BRICS countries in the presence of alternative energy resources and globalization, whereas quantile level analysis does not support globalization as a significant factor for environmental degradation. Quantile regression validates the EKC hypothesis with a direct association of natural resources and inverse association of renewable energy with environmental degradation. Heterogeneous panel causality also confirms the bidirectional Granger causality between all the variables and CO2, except globalization, which means that panel causality is endorsing the results of MMQR. Thus, it is recommended to encourage the usage of renewable energy resources in BRICS countries.
    The study explores the different stages of the capital investment decision process and empirically investigates these stages’ mediating role. We have used firms, managers, and economic attributes as independent variables. Likewise, ROA,... more
    The study explores the different stages of the capital investment decision process and empirically investigates these stages’ mediating role. We have used firms, managers, and economic attributes as independent variables. Likewise, ROA, ROE, and EPS are used as proxies for measuring firm performance, which is the dependent variable. A survey was conducted through a self-developed questionnaire for non-financial listed firms of the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX). The questionnaire comprises of two parts. The first part is related to managers and firm attributes. The second part covers the nine steps of the Capex Appraisal Model (CAM). PLS-SEM was used to investigate the objectives of the study. Moreover, the results support the applicability of CAM in the corporate sector of Pakistan. For this purpose, 27 hypotheses were empirically tested, of which 21 were found to be significant. However, 6 hypotheses were not supported. The findings suggest that the “Capex Appraisal Model” is a use...
    Global financial crisis 2008 has severely impacted on banks and their risk profile. Huge losses were incurred due to systematic risk factors. However severity of these losses differs from one region to another region and from one country... more
    Global financial crisis 2008 has severely impacted on banks and their risk profile. Huge losses were incurred due to systematic risk factors. However severity of these losses differs from one region to another region and from one country to another country. In Pakistan, consumer banking is the most affected banking business that has faced considerable losses during and after the financial crisis of 2008, because of the unexpected rise in the nonperforming loans. This study explores the factors of market risk, especially systematic part. It is noticed through studying the literature review that in 2008, when the financial crisis started influencing the banking system in Pakistan, the SBP had substantially increased the interest rate to control the hyperinflation in the country. Literature also indicates that financial crisis of 2008 has also impacted the GDP growth rate of Pakistan. Unemployment rate is another relevant variable in this context. This study assesses the significance o...
    Research Interests:
    The objective of the study is to analysis portfolio returns and the performance of asset pricing models in the context of macroeconomic variables. Portfolios have been constructed on the basis of firms’ size; two equally weighted decile... more
    The objective of the study is to analysis portfolio returns and the performance of asset pricing models in the context of macroeconomic variables. Portfolios have been constructed on the basis of firms’ size; two equally weighted decile portfolios and two value weighed decile portfolios representing the cluster of the largest and smallest firms are included in the analysis along with the market portfolio. Portfolio returns are regressed with the factor loadings of CAPM, three-factor and five-factor Fama and French asset pricing models. The relationship of portfolio returns and asset pricing models is evaluated in the presence of four macroeconomic variables namely interest rate, industrial production, producer price index and exchange rate; each macroeconomic variable is introduced separately in threshold regression to the identify regime shift effect. Analyses are performed on monthly returns of securities listed on PSX during the period from 2000 to 2010. Results of the study have...
    This study is a scholarly effort to broaden the existing literature on the impact of transportation services, urbanization, and financial development on ecological footprints in Pakistan. Data used in this study covers the period of 39... more
    This study is a scholarly effort to broaden the existing literature on the impact of transportation services, urbanization, and financial development on ecological footprints in Pakistan. Data used in this study covers the period of 39 years from 1980 to 2018. This study adopted the QARDL model to tackle the non-linear association of variables and test their long-run stability across the different quantiles. The findings of this study indicated a significant negative association of transportation services and financial development with ecological footprints in Pakistan at almost all quantiles whereas, the urban population was found to be positively associated with the ecological footprint in Pakistan. Results also justify the existence of the EKC hypothesis in the scenario of Pakistan. Policymakers are advised to frame strategies for investors to invest more in eco-friendly projects to curtail the ecological footprints in Pakistan. Minimizing the dependency of the transportation sector on fossil fuel, and increased use of energy-efficient appliances in the urban population would be beneficial to control the negative influence on ecological footprints in Pakistan.
    The main purpose of this research is to find the impact and the long-run relationship of working capital, and profitability in different major sectors of Pakistan stock exchange; for this purpose eight sectors with 95 listed companies... more
    The main purpose of this research is to find the impact and the long-run relationship of working capital, and profitability in different major sectors of Pakistan stock exchange; for this purpose eight sectors with 95 listed companies selected that can be representative of the Pakistani mindset and practices of the corporate world. For this reason, ROA used as the dependent variable and CCC, CR, QR, WCT ART, APD, ROCE, DR to check the long-run relationship with Firm Performance. OLS is not possible due to the trend in data. In this research unit root test and Penal Co-integration test used for finding the long-run relationship equilibrium. This research paper provides guidelines to corporate practitioners and academia to understand and focus on working capital to improve profitability in the organization. Findings revealed that different sectors have different characteristics of working capital in the long-run equilibrium. This research intends to give future direction for the resea...
    This study aims to investigate potential contingent factors which influence Management Accounting (MA) and Company Performance (CP) in SMEs operating in the manufacturing sector of Pakistan. Data was collected from 102 SMEs by using... more
    This study aims to investigate potential contingent factors which influence Management Accounting (MA) and Company Performance (CP) in SMEs operating in the manufacturing sector of Pakistan. Data was collected from 102 SMEs by using questionnaire, which was adopted from the various researches. Management Accounting (MA) and Company Performance (CP) are endogenous variables, whereas Advanced Manufacturing Technology (AMT), Firm Size (FS), Qualified Accountants (QA), Strategy (STA) and Structure (STR) are exogenous variables. Reliability and validity was analyzed through Exploratory and Confirmatory factor analysis respectively. AMOS 23 was used to test the relevancy and hypotheses of designed contingency model by structural equation modeling (SEM). The results revealed that advanced manufacturing technology (AMT) and structure (STR) are significant contingent factors that have a positive impact on management accounting (MA). Firm size (FS) has a significant but negative impact on company performance (CP) whereas strategy (STA) has a significant and positive impact on company performance (CP). Qualified accountant shows insignificant impact on management accounting, whereas management accounting (MA) and structure have also shown insignificant impact on company's performance. This research has filled the knowledge gap found in the literature with regards to SMEs in Pakistan. I t w ill create awareness among the SMEs to focus on contingent variables and their effect on MA and performance, which ultimately enables the SMEs to operate efficiently in the competitive environment. This research will also help the SMEs owners, policy makers and practitioners in decision making.
    Price determination through demand and supply forces is the most efficient pricing mechanism. But, these forces should be real rather than artificial. Speculative trade creates artificial market forces, which bounds to disturb real... more
    Price determination through demand and supply forces is the most efficient pricing mechanism. But, these forces should be real rather than artificial. Speculative trade creates artificial market forces, which bounds to disturb real economy. It is argued that the demand and supply forces are primarily driven by speculation rather than fundamentals in the presence of commodity derivatives. The aim of this study is to empirically test this argument through causality analyses. Crude oil and USA has been selected as a typical case. Daily spot prices of west texas intermediate crude oil and future prices from New York Mercantile Exchange from January 2 nd , 1986 to March 6 th , 2017 has been analyzed. Granger causality test and vector error correction model are applied to find out the causal relationship between spot and futures prices. Results show that causality runs from runs from crude oil futures to spot prices, crude oil is just one of the numerous commodities, which are being speculatively traded through derivatives.
    This study analyzes the effects of Working Capital management i.e. inventory management, receivable management and payable management, on the performance of the non-financial firms in Pakistan. Panel data of 280 nonfinancial firms... more
    This study analyzes the effects of Working Capital management i.e. inventory management, receivable management and payable management, on the performance of the non-financial firms in Pakistan. Panel data of 280 nonfinancial firms enlisted in Pakistan Stock Exchange have been analyzed from 2000 to 2016. Firms’ profitability were proximate with return on assets and return on equity; whereas for growth i.e. sales growth and asset growth were used. The impact of Working Capital management is captured through its constituent policies such as Inventory management, Receivable Management and Payable management. Firm size, liquidity and leverage are used as control variables. Results suggest that Working Capital management has a significant impact on firms’ financial performance in terms of profitability, as well as growth. As far as component wise results are concerned, inventory management does influence the firms’ growth and Payable management significantly, hence affecting the firms’ profitability. However, only receivable management influences both profitability and growth.
    The objective of the study is to analysis portfolio returns and the performance of asset pricing models in the context of macroeconomic variables. Portfolios have been constructed on the basis of firms’ size; two equally weighted decile... more
    The objective of the study is to analysis portfolio returns and the  performance of asset pricing models in the context of macroeconomic variables. Portfolios have been constructed on the basis of firms’ size; two equally weighted decile portfolios and two value weighed decile
    portfolios representing the cluster of the largest and smallest firms are included in the analysis along with the market portfolio. Portfolio returns are regressed with the factor loadings of CAPM, three-factor and five-factor Fama and French asset pricing models. The relationship of portfolio returns and asset pricing models is evaluated in the presence of four macroeconomic variables namely interest rate, industrial production, producer price index and exchange rate; each
    macroeconomic variable is introduced separately in threshold regression to the identify regime shift effect. Analyses are performed on monthly returns of securities listed on PSX during the period from 2000 to 2010. Results of the study have revealed that only the interest rate and
    exchange rate are found to have a threshold effect on the portfolio returns. According to the results, the threshold effect is frequently captured through three factors Fama French model. Finally, the results also suggest that the threshold effect is only evident with large firms’
    portfolios.
    This study aims to find out the factors influencing the practices specially implementation of Activity Based Accounting (ABC) in the cement sector of Pakistan. The study is based on primary data collected through convenience sampling... more
    This study aims to find out the factors influencing the practices specially implementation of Activity Based Accounting (ABC) in the cement sector of Pakistan. The study is based on primary data collected through convenience sampling technique. Closed ended questionnaire has been used as data collection instrument, the reliability of which was checked through Cronbach's Alpha. The econometric tool of binary logistic model was applied for the identification of factors. ABC method classifies costs, based on various cost drivers. By implementing ABC system, indirect costs can be precisely allocated to various products manufactured in an organization; in doing so, an organization can go for cost reduction by controlling overheads. Organizational size, organizational structure, organizational culture, management behavior and technical issues were identified from preliminary literature review as important factors to have an influence on ABC practices in an organization. These factors were subsequently incorporated in the questionnaire. The results from Binary Logistic Regression suggests that from identified factors organizational size, organizational structure, organizational culture, and technical issues are not significantly influencing the implementation of ABC practices in the cement industry of Pakistan. Only management behavior is resulted from the analysis as significant influential factor in this regard. It can be concluded from the findings that behavior elements play vital role for the adoption and successful implementation of ABC system for the firm in Pakistan in case of cement sector. These findings are important for creating an insight among professionals as well academician regarding costing preferences and practices prevailing in Pakistan.
    Research Interests:
    The aim of this study is also to find out the component wise connection between the effective management of working capital and productivity in the context of Pakistan’s cement sector. There are studies proving both, relevancy and... more
    The aim of this study is also to find out the component wise connection between the effective management of working capital and productivity in the context of Pakistan’s cement sector. There are studies proving both, relevancy and irrelevancy of working capital management with profitability, but most of the studies advocate an inverse relationship between liquidity and profitability. Thus, a firm should maintain a delicate balance of working capital so that smooth operation can be achieved without disturbing the profitability. Panel data of 18 companies listed in KSE from cement sector from 2007 to 2011 is collected. Profitability of Companies, being dependent variable, is gauged through Return on assets (ROA). Efficiency of working capital management is calculated through six accounting ratios. Panel Least square method of regression is applied for analysis. Results suggest that assets turnover ratio (ATO), current ratio (CR) and size of the firm (SLS) have positive and significant affiliation with the return on assets (ROA). Inventory, account receivable and payable, the most important elements of working capital, found insignificant. Thus, it can be inferred that in cement sector of Pakistan, efficiency of working capital management has least role to play in enhancing the profitability of firms.
    Research Interests:
    This paper aims to determine whether Exchange Rate instability of Pakistan, affects it's imports , Exports, Trade Balances, Foreign Exchange Reserves and GDP of Pakistan or not, and if so then in what direction. We have used pooled data... more
    This paper aims to determine whether Exchange Rate instability of Pakistan, affects it's imports , Exports, Trade Balances, Foreign Exchange Reserves and GDP of Pakistan or not, and if so then in what direction. We have used pooled data from 1952 to 2010 (on annual basis), indirect exchange rate quotations (Dollars per Rupee) are used. We have estimated our equation by running each variable at lag 3, Estimated equation of explanatory variables (Exchange Rate, imports, Exports, Foreign Reserves) for explained variable (GDP) exhibits a significant relationship, which is highly sensitive. A change 1 basis point in exchange rate can result in thousand of USD change in GDP. The depreciation of exchange rate has a positive impact on the exports, but sudden and abrupt fluctuation in exchange rates can disturb economic growth. We have used: Correlation Removal methods, Multi-collinerity Detection and Removal Tests, Stability Test, Granger Causality Test, Auto correlation Detection and Removal Tests, in-order to make our model and it's variable, a " good predictor " for determining the Trade Balances of Pakistan, significant enough, for future predictions about GDP. 1. INTRODUCTION Exchange rate is an important macroeconomic variable and a vital factor in international trade. " Exchange rate " is the price of one currency in terms of another currency. The variability in exchange rate plays an important role in the determination of trade balance. Volatile exchange rate slows down the process of trade, destabilizes the capital movements, and shatters the confidence of investors, which slows down the process of growth. Volatility refers that how exchange rate is settled on demand and supply of domestic currency vis-à-vis to foreign currency. Exchange rate volatility can influence policy decisions, affect the volume of exports, imports and reserve money, and disturbs the allocation of productive resources and balance of payments. Exchange rate volatility provides chances to domestic investors to invest in foreign currency to obtain higher profits and thus domestic currency depreciates and economy's growth becomes venerable. The objective of the study is to see impact and the relationship of exchange rate instability on trade and GDP of Pakistan. Empirically, " Appreciation " of the exchange rate affects exports negatively and imports positively, conversely, " Depreciation " has reverse effects. Exports of Pakistan are mainly based on manufacturing and agriculture sectors with less value addition. Instability on Real exchange rate plays a vital role in determining the competitiveness of trade, real depreciation makes the home products cheaper in the world market, which Increases the level of Exports of a country. So, devaluation helps in improving the trade balance and association would be negative. However, some researchers argues that exchange rate does not significantly affect the Exports or imports of the country unless the exchange rate is highly changed i.e. " Highly Undervalued or Highly Overvalued " and no other incentives are given to the traders, Since the Exchange Rates of Pakistan, changes rapidly, therefore, it is expected that, instability in Exchange Rate, will considerably affects the Trade Balance of Pakistan. Import of capital goods plays an important role in enhancing the exports, these imports could be in the form of raw materials, machineries or both, those are used in the manufacturing sector. But, trickling effect of import of capital goods on export may take two period lags on average as setup and production process may take considerable time. Abrupt changes in exchange rate is expected to have a significant negative impact on the imports of the Pakistan, because in a small developing country the importers play safe and cautious role than any other developed country because of less risk taking and resources limitations. Similarly, growth instability will also have significant impact on imports. FOREX reserves are the vital element in determining the volume of import as a country with limited FOREX reserve has to rely on foreign borrowings or she might cut down imports. Therefore it is expected to have positive association between FOREX reserves and imports. Trade Balance Deterioration leads to exchange rate depreciation, therefore it is expected to have positive association between-Devaluation of the currency and the trade balance. Analogous to it, there is a positive association
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