Papers by Oluwasola E Omoju
This study examines the impact of external debt on economic growth in Nigeria. Controversies over... more This study examines the impact of external debt on economic growth in Nigeria. Controversies over the direction and significance of the relationship between the two macroeconomic variables have long been observed in economics and development literatures. Theoretical and past empirical studies on the subject have yielded inconclusive results. Time series data from 1970 to 2007 were analysed using the Granger causality test and the ordinary least square regression technique. Empirical investigation reveals a bi-directional causal relationship between external debt and economic growth. The results of the ordinary least square show that external debt has a significant negative impact on economic growth in Nigeria. Therefore, policies that will reduce or sustainably manage the debt ratio in Nigeria should be proactively pursued as they are an effective way of promoting economic growth and development in Nigeria.
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The need to balance the goals of economic growth and environmental protection is one of the major... more The need to balance the goals of economic growth and environmental protection is one of the major challenges faced by policy makers today. Energy is crucial for economic growth, global prosperity and equity, but unsustainable use of energy resources is also associated with environmental pollution and greenhouse gas emissions, which is largely responsible for global warming and climate change. As a result, various measures are being proposed by stakeholders to proffer means of sustaining the current level of development while stemming the pace of global warming through greenhouse gas emissions reduction. One of such measures is the development of clean coal technologies. Given the importance of coal in the global energy framework, and the difficulty in phasing out its use, at least in the foreseeable future, the development of clean coal technologies has been pressed as an appropriate way to achieve both coal-driven energy production and environmental protection. This is the focus of this research. The paper examines the potential impact of clean coal technologies on greenhouse gas emissions based on available evidence in the literature. According to the findings, clean coal technologies have the potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, but not on a large scale and within the time frame required to address the problem of climate change.
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This paper examines the possibility of the demographic dividend in Nigeria. It investigates the r... more This paper examines the possibility of the demographic dividend in Nigeria. It investigates the role of youth empowerment in the attainment of the demographic dividend. It identifies the challenges facing a typical Nigerian youth and the various ways of investing in the youth bulge. It finds that the challenges facing the Nigerian youth ranges from the problem of youth unemployment, limited access to educational and lack of economic opportunities, lack of access to basic education, high HIV prevalence rate to high poverty rate. It posits that contrary to expectations, increase in the population of the youth may undermine development if the challenges facing the youths are not addressed. The paper recommends that the government should create employment and economic opportunities, provide educational and health facilities, and combat poverty in order to ensure that the bulging youth population translates into economic growth and development. Résumé Ce document examine la possibilité de le dividende démographique au Nigeria. Il étudie le rôle de l'autono-misation des jeunes dans la réalisation du dividende démographique. Il identifie les défis auxquels fait face un jeune Nigérian typique et les différentes façons d'investir dans l'explosion de la jeunesse. Il estime que les défis auxquels sont confrontés les plages de jeunes nigérians du problème de chômage des jeunes, l'accès limité à l'éducation et le manque d'opportunités économiques, le manque d'accès à l'éducation de base, le taux de prévalence du VIH est élevée au taux de pauvreté élevé. Il postule que, contrairement aux attentes, l'augmentation de la population de la jeunesse peut compromettre le développement si les défis auxquels font face les jeunes ne sont pas abordées. Le document recommande que le gouvernement devrait créer des emplois et de possibilités économiques, aux possibilités d'enseignement et de santé et de lutte contre la pau-vreté afin de s'assurer que la population des jeunes bombé se traduit par la croissance économique et le développement.
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Developing countries, including Nigeria, aim to achieve industrialisation and sustainable develop... more Developing countries, including Nigeria, aim to achieve industrialisation and sustainable development. However, there are few empirical studies that examined the impact of industrialisation-led economic transformation on carbon emissions in developing countries. This is the focus of this study. The paper investigates the impact of industrial value-added on CO 2 emissions in Nigeria using the Kaya Identity framework and Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF), Johansen's cointegration technique and vector error correction model (VECM). The data spans from 1980 to 2011. The result of the ADF test indicates that continual long term policies that exert permanent shocks on the variables are required to achieve economic development, industrialisation and CO 2 reduction. The result of the analysis shows that industrial value-added has an inverse and significant relationship with CO 2 emissions, which suggests that there is no evidence that industrialisation increases carbon emissions in Nigeria. GDP per capita and population has positive and significant impacts on CO 2 emission. Energy intensity and carbon intensity has positive but very weak significant impact (at 10% level) on CO 2 emission. The paper recommends that policy makers in Nigeria should pursue pragmatic industrialisation policies coupled with modest decarbonisation and energy-efficiency measures in order to ensure long term industrial, economic and sustainable development.
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This study examines the effect of population growth on savings in Nigeria. Theoretical models and... more This study examines the effect of population growth on savings in Nigeria. Theoretical models and empirical studies yield ambiguous predictions concerning the impact of population growth on saving. Recent researches in this field show that population growth could lead to increase in savings through the growth effect or a decrease in savings through the dependency effect. The analytical framework is based on econometric methodology encompassing the error correction model of regression analysis using data from 1980 to 2007. Empirical results show that income and rapid population growth have positive and negative significant impact respectively on savings in Nigeria. Thus, policies should be concentrated towards enhancing the level of income and also reducing the nation's population growth to bolster savings.
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This paper examines the impact of trade on economic growth using in Nigeria as a case study. Theo... more This paper examines the impact of trade on economic growth using in Nigeria as a case study. Theoretical postulations assert the positive effect of trade on economic growth, but empirical evidences are inconclusive. While some studies find trade to be beneficial to all countries engaging in it, others argue that trade has only benefitted developed countries at the expense of less developed ones. Contributing to this argument is the core of this study. This study makes use of the ordinary least square techniques to examine the effect of trade on economic growth in Nigeria using data from 1980 to 2010. The result of the study shows that trade, foreign direct investment, government expenditure and exchange rate have a significant positive impact on economic growth in Nigeria. Based on the finding, we recommend that government should create an enabling environment that would facilitate trade and foreign direct investment. Efforts should also be geared towards improving expenditure and ensuring exchange rate stability.
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This study examines the nexus between trade openness and the dynamics of unemployment and poverty... more This study examines the nexus between trade openness and the dynamics of unemployment and poverty incidence in Nigeria for the period 1986 to 2010. The study utilizes the Vector Error Correction Method (VECM) and the results show that foreign direct investment has a significant negative effect on economic growth and unemployment rate but a significant positive effect on poverty rate in the long run. In contrast, trade openness has a significant positive impact on economic growth and unemployment rate and a significant negative impact on poverty rate. The short run causality estimates show that there exists a uni-directional causality from trade openness to unemployment rate but no significant causal nexus between economic growth, poverty and FDI and trade openness and economic growth. Another important finding from the empirical estimate is that both foreign direct investment and trade openness had a long-run impact on economic growth, unemployment rate and poverty rate even when the short-run effect was insignificant and or negative. Therefore, the negative relationship between foreign direct investment and economic growth can be reversed by directing foreign investment toward a more productive real sector especially in manufacturing. The long-term impacts of such an investment in the real sector would undoubtedly compensate for the short-term losses and pains caused by the prevailing unemployment and poverty in Nigeria.
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The Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) provides the link between policy priorities and the ... more The Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) provides the link between policy priorities and the budget. Given that in developing countries in general, and in Nigeria in particular, there is a disconnection between planning, policy and the budget, the MTEF has increasingly been regarded as central to public expenditure reforms. The objectives of this paper are to review the MTEF and budget performance in Nigeria for the period 2005-2008, and identify the challenges undermining the effective operation of the budgetary processes. The paper gathered that the MTEF is the bridge between the national development plan, its underlying policies and the annual budget. Analysis of available data on budget performance during the review period shows that public finance in Nigeria have not been operated within the specifications of the MTEF and the budget, and the priorities expressed in the budget are not always in sync with national objective plans. Some of the identified challenges to effective public expenditure management in Nigeria include lack of citizen's participation in the process, the bureaucratic and inefficient nature of the civil service, large scale corruption, lack of proper coordination between the national development plan and budget, lack of adequate reforms in other key budget areas, such as execution, monitoring and reporting, lack of political commitment, and lack of adequate coordination between the national and sub-national governments.
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OPEC has long been a major stakeholder and strong player in the global energy market, especially ... more OPEC has long been a major stakeholder and strong player in the global energy market, especially in the petroleum sub-sector. In recent time, however, there have been questions over the influence of OPEC in the sub-sector due to changing petroleum production landscape specifically as a result of the discovery of unconventional energy resources in North America and emergence of non-OPEC petroleum producing and exporting countries. This development could have significant effect on the global energy market and the macro-economy of OPEC member countries. The stationarity or otherwise of OPEC oil production/supply has important implications for determining whether fluctuations in OPEC market supply has temporary or permanent effect. Using the Zivot–Andrews structural break stationarity test and production data of OPEC member countries from 1980 to 2011, this paper investigates whether fluctuations in OPEC market supply has temporary or permanent effect. The empirical analysis shows that for only 5 OPEC members–Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, Ecuador, Kuwait and UAE—is the hypothesis of unit root rejected. This implies that for the five (5) OPEC members, the effects of shocks to oil production are not permanent and future pattern of oil production can be predicted following past trend. The practical implication of this finding is that OPEC production quota strategy may not have long-term impact on the global oil market. Thus, the cartel needs to improve oil production policy coordination among members and ensure strict adherence to production quota while also stressing the need for diversification in member countries.
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The air pollution situation in the northern part of China has become a threat to the current stat... more The air pollution situation in the northern part of China has become a threat to the current status of China's energy consumption. This situation has created pressure to relocate coal plants to the western section of the country. This paper applies a spatial panel data method to empirically examine the relations between fine particulate matter (PM 2.5) concentration and precipitation and wind speed by using the sample data of 50 cities over 11 months. Based on the empirical parameters , the paper simulates the potential impacts of the proposed coal plants and the coal plants that are currently under construction on PM 2.5 concentrations across all cities when the coal plants are put into operation. The results show that the new capacities will increase PM 2.5 concentrations in northwest and northeast China, but the amount will remain at acceptable levels and still be lower than the levels of Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and Shandong.
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The current global financial crisis and economic meltdown has thrown up a number of questions. On... more The current global financial crisis and economic meltdown has thrown up a number of questions. One of such, is how prepared national governments are to contend with the devastating food crisis plaguing the world generally and Africa in particular. In Africa for instance, this crisis is exacerbated by the fact that agricultural and food productivity per capita has been dwindling over the years; standing at about 2.5 per cent currently. This is abysmal when compared to population growth which stands at about 3.6 per cent. Nonetheless, political reforms as dictated by international financial institutions, which resulted in the democratization of political and administrative structures, have not been accompanied by socioeconomic reforms and appropriate development policies, strategies and programmes that will enhance agricultural and food productivity. This has occasioned revolutionary pressures on African states and those who act on its behalf, and calls for urgent reappraisal of existing state policies, programmes and institutions on food security in Africa. This paper is part of the attempts at the reappraisal. It examines the challenges and problems of food security in Africa and identifies the prospects for a double green revolution in Africa. The paper recommends, as a strategy in tackling the food crisis, a restructuring of existing state institutions and collaborations among African states to ensure food sufficiency.
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This paper examines the random walk hypothesis for electricity consumption in sub-Saharan Africa ... more This paper examines the random walk hypothesis for electricity consumption in sub-Saharan Africa countries over the period 1971e2013 by applying univariate and panel unit root tests. In addition to the first and second generation panel unit root tests, we apply the recent Lagrange Multiplier (LM) panel unit root test developed by Im, Lee and Tieslau, (2005). This test does not suffer from bias and spurious rejection because it allows for structural breaks in the intercept and slope. The empirical results of the LM unit root tests show that stationarity in electricity consumption is found in 11 of the 17 countries, which corroborates the findings of the first and second generation panel unit root tests. These results indicate that any shock to electricity consumption has a transitory impact for almost all sub-Saharan Africa countries implying that electricity demand will return to its time trend. Failure to reject the unit root hypothesis for the previous studies may be the result of a loss of power to allow for possible structural breaks.
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Achieving economic development and environmental sustainability simultaneously is one of the most... more Achieving economic development and environmental sustainability simultaneously is one of the most important development challenges for Africa today. The relationship between economic growth and environmental sustainability is founded on the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC). This paper examines the validity of the hypothesis and the driving factors of carbon dioxide (CO 2) emission in five African countries using the STIRPAT empirical model, panel cointegration and fully modified ordinary least squares. Unlike previous studies, economic development is disaggregated into agriculture and industrial economic development. The results show that there is no evidence of the validity of the hypothesis in Africa, regardless of whether economic development is driven by agriculture or industrialisation. Energy structure and energy intensity are the two major driving forces of CO 2 emissions in Africa. Population growth and urbanisation have negative relationship with CO 2 emissions. From our results, the EKC is not a sound basis for environmental policy in Africa; rather, environmental policy in Africa, specifically for CO 2 emissions mitigation, should focus on encouraging energy efficiency, enhancing the use of clean energy, incorporating the impact of population growth and harnessing the positive impacts of urbanisation.
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Renewable electricity technology adoption is an essential part of the measures to mitigate climat... more Renewable electricity technology adoption is an essential part of the measures to mitigate climate change and promote sustainable development. This paper investigates the drivers of and barriers to renewable electricity technology adoption in Nigeria. Specifically, the factors that influence the share of renewable electricity in total electricity consumption in Nigeria is investigated using data from 1981 to 2011 and employing the Johansen cointegration technique and vector error correction method. The results show that there is a long run relationship between renewable electricity consumption and GDP, trade openness, financial development and share of fossil fuel in energy consumption. Trade openness promotes renewable electricity consumption while obsession with economic growth and the lobby of conventional energy sources undermine it in Nigeria. Financial development does not have significant impact on renewable electricity technology adoption in Nigeria. It is recommended that the Nigerian government should pursue policies that not only increase the amount of renewable electricity, but also increase the share of renewables in total electricity consumption.
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Papers by Oluwasola E Omoju
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