Probability
Distributions
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Starter
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Probability
Distributions
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A variable is represented by a symbol (X, Y, A, B, etc.), and can take on any of a specified set
of values.
When the value of a variable is the outcome of an experiment, the variable is called a random
variable. The variable is called random if the outcome is not known until the experiment is
carried out.
Capital letters like X are used for the random variable and a lower case letters such as for a
particular value of the random variable X.
The probability that X is equal to a particular value , is written P(X=) or sometimes p(). The
two notations are freely interchangeable.
A continuous random variable is one where the outcome can be any value on a continuous
scale.
A discrete random variable can only take values on a discrete scale.
Write down with a reason whether or not each of the following is a discrete random variable.
(a) The average lifetime of a battery.
(b) The number of days in a week.
(c) The number of moves it takes to complete a game of chess.
a) Not a DRV as time is continuous.
b) Not a DRV as it is always 7 and doesn’t vary.
c) It is a DRV as it is always a whole number and it does vary.
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To specify a discrete random variable completely, you need to know its set of possible values
and the probability with which it takes each one.
• You can draw up a table to show the probability of each outcome of an experiment. This is
called a probability distribution.
• You can also specify a discrete random variable as a function. This is known as a
probability mass function.
• You could represent the probabilities in a diagram.
For example, consider rolling a fair die.
1 2 3 4 5 6
Using a table the probability
distribution would be: P(X=)
As a probability mass function: P(X=) = = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
Using a diagram:
When all of the probabilities are the same, as in this example, the distribution is known as a
discrete uniform distribution.
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Example 1
There are an equal number of blue and red counters in a bag. A counter is picked at random
and its colour noted. The counter is then replaced and a second counter drawn and its colour
noted. The counter is again replaced and a third counter drawn and its colour noted. The
number of red counters, X, is counted.
For this experiment:
(a) Write down the sample space
(b) Write down the probability distribution
(c) Write down the probability mass function.
(a) R R R (b) No. red counters x 0 1 2 3
R R B P(X=x) 1/8 3/8 3/8 1/8
R B R
B R R
(c)
R B B
B R B
B B R
B B B
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For a discrete random variable the sum of all probabilities must add up to one.
ΣP(X=) = 1 for all values of
Example 2
X represents a discrete random variable. Given that P(X=) = , = 1, 2, 3, 4
(a) Find the value of
(b) Give the probability distribution of X in table form.
(c) Find the probability that:
(i) X > 2 ii) 2 ≤ X ≤ 4
(a) 1 2 3 4 𝑘+2 𝑘+3 𝑘+ 4 𝑘=1
P(X=) 10 𝑘=1
1
𝑘=
(b) 1 2 3 4 10
P(X=)
(c) (i) P(X>2) = (c) (ii) P(2 ≤X≤4) =
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Page 86 Ex 6A
Example 3 Q3 →
A spinner has 3 red sections and 4 blues sections, each of equal size. The spinner is to be
spun until it lands on red or has been spun four times in total.
Find the probability distribution of the random variable S, the number of times the spinner is
spun.
On each spin P(R) = and P(B) =
P(S=1) =
P(S=2) =
s 1 2 3 4
P(S=3) =
P(S=s)
P(S=4) = 1-
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Exam Style Question
The discrete random variable has probability function
Find
(a)
(b)
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Starter
Tommy sells pieces of square turf. The size of turf (in m 2), , requested by each of the
customers is modelled as a random variable with the probability distribution shown.
1 4 9 16 25 36
Discrete Uniform (Distribution)
(a) Write down the name of the distribution being used to model this random variable.
1
6 𝑘 =1⇒ 𝑘=
(b) Work out the value of 6 3
¿
1
6 2 2( )
(c) What is the probability that the area of the turf ordered by the customer is less than 12 m ?
The random variables and are independent and each have the same distribution as
(d) Find
For we could have:
and , and , and or and
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The Binomial
Distribution
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We can model a random variable, , as a binomial distribution if
1. There are a fixed number of trials, .
2. Each trial is success or failure.
3. The trials are independent.
4. The probability of success, , at each trial is constant.
If these conditions are satisfied we say that the random variable has a binomial distribution
and write
and where
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Example 4
The random variable X ∼ B(15, 0.2).
Find: a) P(X =2) b) P(X = 11) c) P(X ≤ 1)
a) P(X = 2) = = 0.23089...
= 0.231 (to 3 sf)
b) P(X = 11) = = 0.00001145...
= 0.0000115 (to 3 sf)
c) P(X ≤ 1) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1)
= 0.16712 ...
= 0.167 (to 3 sf)
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Exercise
1. For , find:
(a) 0.2639 (b) 0.0326 (c) 0.006376
2. For find:
(a) 0.2285 (b) 0.0806
(c) 0.3193
3. For find 0.0042
4. For , find:
(a) 0.0851 (b) 0.6386 (c) 0.0851
5. For , find:
(a) 0.8900 (b) 0.0217 (c) 0.4271
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Example 5 Page 90 Ex 6B
The probability that a randomly chosen patient in a doctor’s surgery has been prescribed
antibiotics is 0.12. A independently selected random sample of 8 patients is taken.
(a) Suggest a suitable model for the random variable X, the number of patients in the sample
who have been prescribed antibiotics. Justify your choice.
(b) Use your model to calculate the probability that:
(i) Exactly 5 of the patients in the sample have been prescribed antibiotics
(ii) Fewer than two of the patients in the sample have been prescribed antibiotics.
(a) Each trial is success or failure (they have antibiotics or not)
There are a fixed number of trials (8)
The trials are independent
There is a constant probability of success (0.12)
A binomial distribution is a suitable model and XB(8, 0.12)
(b) (i) P(X = 5) =
=0.000949603… =0.000950 (to 3sf)
(ii) P(X < 2) = P(X ≤ 1) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) P(X = 0) = …
P(X < 2) = 0.35963 + 0.392328 = 0.7519… P(X = 1) =
…
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Exam Style Question
The probability of a bolt being faulty is 0.3. Find the probability that in a random sample of 20
bolts there are
(a) exactly 2 faulty bolts
(b) less than 3 faulty bolts
(a)
(b)
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Starter:
Sue throws a fair coin 15 times and records the number of times it shows a head.
(a) State the distribution to model the number of times the coin shows a head.
Find the probability that Sue records
(b) exactly 8 heads.
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Cumulative
Probabilities
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A cumulative probability function for a random variable X tells you the sum of all the
individual probabilities up to and including the given value of in the calculation for P(X ≤ ). For
the binomial distribution there are tables of these values.
Example 6
The random variable X ∼ B(20, 0.35). Find:
a) P(X ≤ 6) (b) P(X < 5) (c) P(X ≥ 12)
(a) P(X ≤ 6) = 0.4166
(b) P(X < 5) = P(X ≤ 4) = 0.1182
(c) P(X ≥ 12) = 1 – P(X ≤ 11) = 1 – 0.9804 = 0.0196
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Example 7
The random variable X ∼ B(25, 0.3). Find:
a) P(X = 7) (b) P(X > 16) (c) P(5 < X ≤ 11)
(a) P(X = 7) = P(X ≤ 7) – P(X ≤ 6) OR using the formula
= 0.5118 – 0.3407
P(X = 7) =
= 0.1711
(b) P (X > 16) = 1 - P(X ≤ 16)
= 1- 0.9999
= 0.0001
(c) P(5 < X ≤ 11) = P(X ≤ 11) – P(X ≤ 5)
= 0.9558 – 0.1935
= 0.7623
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Example 8 Page 93 Ex 6C
A spinner is designed so that the probability it lands on red is 0.25. Beatrice decides to use
this spinner for a competition at a school fete. She wants the probability of winning a prize to
be less than 0.05. Each person will be allowed 12 spins and the number of reds recorded.
Find the least number of reds required to win a prize.
Let X be the number of reds in 12 spins.
Let r be the smallest number of reds required to win a prize.
Need P(X ≥ r) < 0.05
P(X ≤ 5) = 0.9456
P(X ≤ 6) = 0.9857
P(X ≤ 6) = 0.9857 implies that
P(X ≥ 7) = 1- 0.9857
= 0.0133 < 0.05
So 7 or more reds wins a prize.
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Exam Style Question
A bag contains a large number of counters of which 15% are coloured red. A random sample
of 30 counters is selected and the number of red counters is recorded.
Find the probability of no more than 6 red counters in this sample.
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