How reliant
is the world
on Russia
for Natural
Sao Piseth 2022/06/24
1 Natural Gas in Russia
5 LNG prices
2 European reliance on
Russian gas
3 Russian-Ukraine conflict
4 Natural Gas sanction
01
Natural Gas
in Russia
1 Natural Gas in Russia
Russia has the largest reserves of
natural gas followed by Iran and Qatar.
Together, the three countries
accounted for half of the world’s
natural gas reserves in 2020.
Russia has proven reserves of about
48,938 bcm, Iran of 34,077 bcm, and
Qatar of 23,831 bcm.
1 Natural Gas in Russia
European
02
reliance on
Russian gas
2 European reliance on Russian gas
SUMMARY
OF WORK
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2 European reliance on Russian gas
SUMMARY
OF WORK
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2 European reliance on Russian gas
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Russia-Ukraine
conflictSUMMARY 03
OF WORK
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3 Russia-Ukraine conflict
Russia’s invasion
of Ukraine on
February 24
There is no question that
Vladimir Putin started the war
and is responsible for how it is
being waged. But why he did so is
another matter. The mainstream
view in the West is that he is an
irrational, out-of-touch aggressor
SUMMARY
bent on creating a greater Russia
in the mould of the former Soviet
Union. Thus, he alone bears full
responsibility
But that storyfor is
thewrong!!!
Ukraine
crisis.
3 Russia-Ukraine conflict
The trouble over Ukraine actually started at
NATO’s Bucharest summit in April 2008, when
George W. Bush’s administration pushed the
alliance to announce that Ukraine and Georgia John J. Mearsheimer is the R. Wendell
Harrison Distinguished Service Professor
“will become members”. of
Political Science at the University of
Russian leaders responded immediately with outrage, characterising Chicago.
this decision as an existential threat to
Russia and vowing to thwart it. According to a respected Russian journalist, Mr Putin “flew into a rage” and
warned that “if Ukraine joins NATO, it will do so without Crimea and the eastern regions. It will simply fall
apart.” America ignored Moscow’s red line, however, and pushed forward to make Ukraine a Western
bulwark on Russia’s border.
That strategy included two other elements: bringing Ukraine closer to the eu and making it a pro-American
democracy.
SUMMARY
February 2014, The West, and especially America, is principally responsible for the crisis. It has now turned
into a war that not only threatens to destroy Ukraine, but also has the potential to escalate into a nuclear
war between Russia and NATO.
These efforts eventually sparked hostilities in February 2014, after an uprising (which was supported by
America) caused Ukraine’s pro-Russian president, Viktor Yanukovych, to flee the country.
In response, Russia took Crimea from Ukraine and helped fuel a civil war that broke out in the Donbas
region of eastern Ukraine.
3 Russia-Ukraine conflict
The next major confrontation came in December 2021 and led directly to the current war. The main cause was
that Ukraine was becoming a de facto member of NATO. The process started in December 2017, when the
Trump administration decided to sell Kyiv “defensive weapons”. What counts as “defensive” is hardly clear-
cut, however, and these weapons certainly looked offensive to Moscow and its allies in the Donbas region.
Other NATO countries got in on the act, shipping weapons to Ukraine, training its armed forces and allowing it
to participate in joint air and naval exercises.
In July 2021, Ukraine and America co-hosted a major naval exercise in the Black Sea region involving navies
from 32 countries. Operation Sea Breeze almost provoked Russia to fire at a British naval destroyer that
deliberately entered what Russia considers its territorial waters.
The links between Ukraine and America continued growing under the Biden administration. This commitment
is reflected throughout an important document—the “us-Ukraine Charter on Strategic Partnership”—that was
signed in November by Antony Blinken, America’s secretary of state, and Dmytro Kuleba, his Ukrainian
counterpart. The aim was to “underscore … a commitment to Ukraine’s implementation of the deep and
comprehensive reforms necessary for full integration into European and Euro-Atlantic institutions.” The
document explicitly builds on “the commitments made to strengthen the Ukraine-u.s. strategic partnership by
Presidents Zelensky and Biden,” and also emphasises that the two countries will be guided by the “2008
Bucharest Summit Declaration.”
3 Russia-Ukraine conflict
Unsurprisingly, Moscow found this evolving situation intolerable and began mobilising its army on Ukraine’s
border last spring to signal its resolve to Washington. But it had no effect, as the Biden administration
continued to move closer to Ukraine. This led Russia to precipitate a full-blown diplomatic stand-off in
December. As Sergey Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, put it: “We reached our boiling point.” Russia
demanded a written guarantee that Ukraine would never become a part of NATO and that the alliance
remove the military assets it had deployed in eastern Europe since 1997. The subsequent negotiations
failed, as Mr Blinken made clear: “There is no change. There will be no change.” A month later Mr Putin
launched
This an invasion
interpretation of Ukraine
of events is attoodds
eliminate theprevailing
with the threat he mantra
saw from
in NATO.
the West, which portrays NATO
expansion as irrelevant to the Ukraine crisis, blaming instead Mr Putin’s expansionist goals. According to a
recent NATO document sent to Russian leaders, “NATO is a defensive Alliance and poses no threat to
Russia.” The available evidence contradicts these claims. For starters, the issue at hand is not what Western
leaders say NATO’s purpose or intentions are; it is how Moscow sees NATO’s actions.
Mr Putin surely knows that the costs of conquering and occupying large amounts of territory in eastern
Europe would be prohibitive for Russia. As he once put it, “Whoever does not miss the Soviet Union has no
heart. Whoever wants it back has no brain.” His beliefs about the tight bonds between Russia and Ukraine
notwithstanding, trying to take back all of Ukraine would be like trying to swallow a porcupine. Furthermore,
Russian policymakers—including Mr Putin—have said hardly anything about conquering new territory to
recreate the Soviet Union or build a greater Russia. Rather, since the 2008 Bucharest summit Russian
leaders have repeatedly said that they view Ukraine joining NATO as an existential threat that must be
prevented. As Mr Lavrov noted in January, “the key to everything is the guarantee that NATO will not expand
eastward.”
Tellingly, Western leaders rarely described Russia as a military threat to Europe before 2014. As America’s
former ambassador to Moscow Michael McFaul notes, Mr Putin’s seizure of Crimea was not planned for
long; it was an impulsive move in response to the coup that overthrew Ukraine’s pro-Russian leader. In
fact, until then, NATO expansion was aimed at turning all of Europe into a giant zone of peace, not
containing a dangerous Russia. Once the crisis started, however, American and European policymakers
could not admit they had provoked it by trying to integrate Ukraine into the West. They declared the real
source of the problem was Russia’s revanchism and its desire to dominate if not conquer Ukraine.
His story about the conflict’s causes should not be controversial, given that many prominent American
foreign-policy experts have warned against NATO expansion since the late 1990s. America’s secretary of
defence at the time of the Bucharest summit, Robert Gates, recognised that “trying to bring Georgia and
Ukraine into NATO was truly overreaching”. Indeed, at that summit, both the German chancellor, Angela
Merkel, and the French president, Nicolas Sarkozy, were opposed to moving forward on NATO
membership for Ukraine because they feared it would infuriate Russia.
The upshot of my interpretation is that we are in an extremely dangerous situation, and Western policy
is exacerbating these risks. For Russia’s leaders, what happens in Ukraine has little to do with their
imperial ambitions being thwarted; it is about dealing with what they regard as a direct threat to
Russia’s future. Mr Putin may have misjudged Russia’s military capabilities, the effectiveness of the
Ukrainian resistance and the scope and speed of the Western response, but one should never
underestimate how ruthless great powers can be when they believe they are in dire straits. America and
its allies, however, are doubling down, hoping to inflict a humiliating defeat on Mr Putin and to maybe
even trigger his removal. They are increasing aid to Ukraine while using economic sanctions to inflict
massive punishment on Russia, a step that Putin now sees as “akin to a declaration of war”.
America and its allies may be able to prevent a Russian victory in Ukraine, but the country will be gravely
damaged, if not dismembered. Moreover, there is a serious threat of escalation beyond Ukraine, not to
mention the danger of nuclear war. If the West not only thwarts Moscow on Ukraine’s battlefields, but also
does serious, lasting damage to Russia’s economy, it is in effect pushing a great power to the brink. Mr
Putin might then turn to nuclear weapons.
At this point it is impossible to know the terms on which this conflict will be settled. But, if we do not
understand its deep cause, we will be unable to end it before Ukraine is wrecked and NATO ends up in a
war with Russia.
04
Natural Gas
sanction on
Russia
Natural Gas sanction on Russia?
In its latest attempt to punish Russia for it invasion of
Ukraine, the European Union is to ban all imports of oil from
Russia that are brought in by sea.
It says this could cut the amount of oil and gas that EU countries import from Russia by up to 90%,
reducing the amount of money the Russian government makes from oil and gas sales.
The EU, along with countries such as the UK and the US, have introduced a series of measures to
weaken key areas of the Russian economy, such as its energy and financial sectors.
Natural Gas sanction on Russia?
What other sanction are there on Russian oil and gas?
• The US is banning all Russian oil and gas imports and the UK will phase out Russian oil imports by
the end of 2022.
• Germany has frozen plans for the opening of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia.
• The EU has also said it will halt Russian coal imports by August.
• However, the EU is less keen to impose sanctions on Russian gas, because it relies on Russia for
about 40% of its gas needs.
• In March, the EU committed to reducing gas imports by two-thirds within a year but has not been
able to agree any further action.
How else is Russia being sanctioned?
• Western countries have introduced increasingly widespread sanctions - targeting wealthy
individuals, banks, businesses and state-owned enterprises.
Natural Gas sanction on Russia?
What are companies doing?
More than 1,000 international companies have either suspended trading in Russia, or withdrawn
altogether - including McDonalds, Coca-Cola, Starbucks, and Marks & Spencer.
McDonald's is leaving Russia and selling off its 850 restaurants, 30 years after setting up there.
Food giant Nestle has withdrawn some of its brands including KitKat and Nesquik, but will still sell
"essential foods".
However, some brands including Burger King, and hotel groups Marriott and Accor say they can't pull out
because their businesses operate under complex franchise deals.
Military goods and mercenaries
A ban on the export of dual-use goods - items with both a civilian and military purpose, such as vehicle
parts - has been imposed by the UK, EU and US.
The UK is also imposing sanctions on Russia's Wagner Group - a private military firm thought to function
as an arms-length unit of the Russian military.
Flights
All Russian flights have been banned from US, UK, EU and Canadian airspace.
The UK has also banned private jets chartered by Russians.
Luxury goods
The UK and the EU have banned the export of luxury goods to Russia - including vehicles, high-end
fashion and art.
Natural Gas sanction on Russia?
How has Russia reacted?
Russia has banned exports of more than 200 products until the end of 2022, including telecoms, medical,
vehicle, agricultural, electrical equipment and timber.
In addition, it is blocking interest payments to foreign investors who hold government bonds, and
banning Russian firms from paying overseas shareholders.
And it has stopped foreign investors who hold billions of dollars worth of Russian stocks and bonds from
selling them.
