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statistics

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
24 views88 pages

Presentation 1

statistics

Uploaded by

afifaanwar13580
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
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Statistics

Definition of Statistics
• Statistics is the science of collecting, organizing, analyzing, interpreting, and presenting
data. It provides tools for making informed decisions in the face of uncertainty by using
numerical data.
• Importance and Scope of Statistics
• Importance:
1. Decision Making: Helps in making informed decisions based on data analysis.
2. Policy Formulation: Assists governments and organizations in formulating policies.
3. Research: Essential for conducting scientific research in various fields.
4. Quality Control: Used in industries for maintaining and improving quality.
5. Prediction: Aids in forecasting future trends and outcomes.
6. Understanding and Interpreting Data: Helps in understanding complex data through
summarization and visualization.
Scope:

1.Descriptive Statistics: Summarizes and describes the features of a


dataset.
2.Inferential Statistics: Makes inferences and predictions about a
population based on a sample of data.
3.Applied Statistics: Application of statistical techniques in various
fields such as economics, medicine, engineering, and social sciences.
4.Theoretical Statistics: Development of new statistical methods and
theories.
Descriptive and Inferential
Statistics
• Descriptive Statistics:
• Deals with summarizing and describing data.
• Includes measures of central tendency (mean, median, mode), measures of
dispersion (range, variance, standard deviation), and graphical representations
(charts, graphs).
• Inferential Statistics:
• Involves making predictions or inferences about a population based on a sample.
• Includes hypothesis testing, confidence intervals, and regression analysis.
• Presentation of Data
• Tables: Organize data in rows and columns for clarity.
• Graphs and Charts: Visual representations to make data easier to understand.
Common Types of Graphs and
Charts:
1.Bar Graphs: Used to display categorical data.
2.Histograms: Show the distribution of numerical data.
3.Pie Charts: Represent proportions of a whole.
4.Line Graphs: Display trends over time.
• Specialized Graphs:
1.Stem-and-Leaf Diagram: Displays quantitative data in a way that
preserves individual data points.
2.Box and Whisker Plots: Summarize data using quartiles, showing the
spread and skewness.
Measures of Central
Tendency/Location
1.Mean: The average of a dataset.
2.Median: The middle value when data is ordered.
3.Mode: The most frequently occurring value in a dataset.
• Measures of Dispersion/Variability
1.Range: The difference between the highest and lowest values.
2.Variance: The average of the squared differences from the mean.
3.Standard Deviation: The square root of the variance, representing
the average distance from the mean.
4.Interquartile Range (IQR): The range of the middle 50% of the data.
Measures of Skewness and
Kurtosis
1.Skewness: Describes the asymmetry of the data distribution.
1. Positive skew: Tail on the right side is longer or fatter.
2. Negative skew: Tail on the left side is longer or fatter.
2.Kurtosis: Describes the "tailedness" of the data distribution.
1. Leptokurtic: Data has heavy tails and a sharp peak.
2. Platykurtic: Data has light tails and a flatter peak.
3. Mesokurtic: Data has a moderate peak and tails, similar to a normal
distribution.
Sample and Population: Definitions
and Examples
• Population
• Definition:

• A population in statistics refers to the entire group of individuals or instances about


whom we are trying to draw conclusions.
• It includes every member or element of the group that fits a particular set of criteria.
• Example:

• If you are studying the average height of all adults in a country, the population is every
adult in that country.
• In a research study about the efficacy of a new drug, the population might include all
individuals who have the disease the drug is meant to treat.
Sample
Definition:
• A sample is a subset of the population that is used to represent the population in
statistical analysis.
• It is a smaller group selected from the population, which ideally should be
representative of the population to allow for accurate inferences.
• Example:

• Using the previous example of studying the average height of adults in a country, you
might take a sample of 1,000 adults from various regions to estimate the average
height of all adults in the country.
• In the drug efficacy study, you might have a sample of 200 patients from different
hospitals who are treated with the new drug to understand its effectiveness.
Key Differences
• Size: The population is generally much larger than a sample.
• Scope: The population includes all possible members, while the sample includes only
a portion of the population.
• Use in Research: Researchers use a sample to make inferences about the population
because it is often impractical or impossible to study the entire population.
• Importance in Research
• Representativeness: For the results of the sample to be valid, the sample must be
representative of the population. This means it should accurately reflect the diversity
and characteristics of the population.
• Sampling Methods: Various sampling methods (random sampling, stratified sampling,
etc.) are used to ensure that the sample represents the population as closely as
possible.
Example in Detail
• Imagine you want to study the average number of hours that university students spend on social media
per day.

• Population:

• All university students in the world.


• Sample:

• A group of 500 university students selected from various universities across different countries.
• You would collect data from these 500 students and use statistical methods to infer the average number
of hours spent on social media for the entire population of university students.

• By ensuring that your sample is representative, you can make more reliable and valid conclusions about
the population.
Probability Sampling:

• Definition: Each member of the population has a known, non-zero chance of being selected.
• Examples: Simple random sampling, stratified sampling, cluster sampling, systematic
sampling.
• Advantages: Reduces selection bias, allows for the calculation of sampling errors, and results
can be generalized to the population.
• Non-Probability Sampling:

• Definition: Not all members have a chance of being selected. The selection is based on
subjective judgment.
• Examples: Convenience sampling, judgmental sampling, quota sampling, snowball sampling.
• Advantages: Easier and quicker to conduct, useful in exploratory research, and cost-effective.
• Multiphase Sampling:

• Definition: Involves collecting data in stages where each stage refines the selection process
based on the data collected in previous stages.
• Example: Conducting a preliminary survey to identify characteristics, followed by a detailed
survey on a refined sample.
• Multistage Sampling:

• Definition: A complex form of cluster sampling where sampling is done in multiple stages using
smaller and smaller units at each stage.
• Example: Selecting a sample of schools from a list of districts, then selecting students from the
chosen schools.
Sample and Population: Definitions
and Examples
• Population:

• Definition: The entire group of individuals or instances about whom we hope to learn.
• Example: All students in a university.
• Explanation: If a university wants to know the average GPA of its students, the population
is every student enrolled at the university.
• Sample:

• Definition: A subset of the population that is used to represent the entire group.
• Example: 200 students selected from the university.
• Explanation: To estimate the average GPA, the university might select 200 students from
different departments and years as a representative sample.
Differences between Sample and
Population
• Size:

• Population: Includes all members of the defined group.


• Sample: Includes only a part of the population.
• Purpose:

• Population: The target group that the researcher wants to draw conclusions
about.
• Sample: Used to make inferences about the population.
• Data Collection:
• Population: Collecting data from the entire population is often
impractical due to time, cost, and logistical constraints.
• Sample: Collecting data from a sample is more feasible and efficient.
• Representation:

• Population: Represents the entire group without exception.


• Sample: Should ideally represent the population well, but there is
always a possibility of sampling error.
Examples
• Example 1: Medical Research

• Population: All patients diagnosed with diabetes in a country.


• Sample: 500 patients with diabetes selected from different hospitals across the country.
• Difference: While the population includes every diabetic patient, the sample is just 500
patients, selected to represent the larger group.
• Example 2: Market Research

• Population: All customers who have purchased a specific product in the past year.
• Sample: 1,000 customers surveyed about their satisfaction with the product.
• Difference: The population consists of every customer who purchased the product, while
the sample includes only those 1,000 customers surveyed.
Example 3: Education Study

• Population: All high school students in a city.


• Sample: 300 students from various high schools in the city.
• Difference: The population encompasses every high school student in
the city, whereas the sample is a selection of 300 students chosen to
reflect the overall student body.
Visual Representation
Population:
• ---------------------------------------------------
• | All Students in the University (10,000 students) |
• ---------------------------------------------------
Sample:
• ---------------------------------------------------
• | Sample of 200 Students from the University |
• ---------------------------------------------------
Conclusion
• Understanding the distinction between a sample and a population is
crucial in research. While a population represents the whole group, a
sample is a manageable subset used to infer conclusions about the
population. Proper sampling methods ensure that the sample
accurately represents the population, thereby providing reliable and
generalizable results.
Parameter and Statistic: Definitions
and Examples
• Parameter:

• Definition: A parameter is a numerical value that describes a characteristic of a population.


• Example: The average height of all students in a school.
• Explanation: If you measure the height of every student in the school and calculate the average,
that value is a parameter because it describes the entire population.
• Statistic:

• Definition: A statistic is a numerical value that describes a characteristic of a sample.


• Example: The average height of 50 randomly selected students from the school.
• Explanation: If you measure the height of 50 students and calculate the average, that value is a
statistic because it describes only a sample of the population.
Differences between Parameter and
Statistic
• Scope:

• Parameter: Refers to the entire population.


• Statistic: Refers to a sample from the population.
• Representation:

• Parameter: A fixed value since it is based on the entire population.


• Statistic: Can vary from sample to sample.
• Calculation:
• Parameter: Typically unknown and estimated using statistics.
• Statistic: Calculated from sample data and used to estimate
parameters.
• Examples:

• Parameter: Population mean (μ), population standard deviation (σ),


population proportion (P).
• Statistic: Sample mean (x̄ ), sample standard deviation (s), sample
proportion (p).
Examples
Example 1: Academic Performance
• Parameter: The true average score of all students in a university on a standardized test.
• Statistic: The average score of 200 randomly selected students from the university on the same
test.
• Difference: The parameter represents the average score of the entire student body, while the
statistic represents the average score of the sample.
• Example 2: Healthcare

• Parameter: The proportion of all adults in a country who have high blood pressure.
• Statistic: The proportion of 1,000 randomly selected adults in the country who have high blood
pressure.
• Difference: The parameter is the true proportion for the entire population, while the statistic is
the observed proportion in the sample.
Example 3: Market Research

• Parameter: The true average amount of money spent by all customers


in a store during a month.
• Statistic: The average amount of money spent by 500 randomly
selected customers in the store during that month.
• Difference: The parameter is the actual average spending of all
customers, while the statistic is the average spending of the sample of
customers.
Visual Representation
Parameter (Population):
• ---------------------------------------------------
• | μ (Population Mean) = Average height of all students |
• ---------------------------------------------------
Statistic (Sample):
• ---------------------------------------------------
• | x̄ (Sample Mean) = Average height of 50 students |
• ---------------------------------------------------
Types of Statistics
• Statistics can be classified into two different categories. The two
different types of Statistics are:

• Descriptive Statistics
• Inferential Statistics
Statistical Inference Definition
• Statistical inference is the process of analysing the result and making conclusions from
data subject to random variation. It is also called inferential statistics. Hypothesis
testing and confidence intervals are the applications of the statistical inference.
Statistical inference is a method of making decisions about the parameters of a
population, based on random sampling. It helps to assess the relationship between the
dependent and independent variables. The purpose of statistical inference to estimate
the uncertainty or sample to sample variation. It allows us to provide a probable range
of values for the true values of something in the population. The components used for
making statistical inference are:

• Sample Size
• Variability in the sample
• Size of the observed differences
Types of Statistical Inference
• There are different types of statistical inferences that are extensively used for
making conclusions. They are:

• One sample hypothesis testing


• Confidence Interval
• Pearson Correlation
• Bi-variate regression
• Multi-variate regression
• Chi-square statistics and contingency table
• ANOVA or T-test
Statistical Inference Procedure
• The procedure involved in inferential statistics are:

• Begin with a theory


• Create a research hypothesis
• Operationalize the variables
• Recognize the population to which the study results should apply
• Formulate a null hypothesis for this population
• Accumulate a sample from the population and continue the study
• Conduct statistical tests to see if the collected sample properties are adequately
different from what would be expected under the null hypothesis to be able to
reject the null hypothesis
Statistical Inference Solution
• Statistical inference solutions produce efficient use of statistical data
relating to groups of individuals or trials. It deals with all characters,
including the collection, investigation and analysis of data and organizing
the collected data. By statistical inference solution, people can acquire
knowledge after starting their work in diverse fields. Some statistical
inference solution facts are:

• It is a common way to assume that the observed sample is of independent


observations from a population type like Poisson or normal
• Statistical inference solution is used to evaluate the parameter(s) of the
expected model like normal mean or binomial proportion
Importance of Statistical Inference
• Inferential Statistics is important to examine the data properly. To make an accurate
conclusion, proper data analysis is important to interpret the research results. It is majorly
used in the future prediction for various observations in different fields. It helps us to make
inference about the data. The statistical inference has a wide range of application in different
fields, such as:

• Business Analysis
• Artificial Intelligence
• Financial Analysis
• Fraud Detection
• Machine Learning
• Share Market
• Pharmaceutical Sector
• While a card is tried at random, then what is the probability of getting a

• Diamond cards
• Black cards
• Except for spade
• Solution:

• By statistical inference solution,

• Total number of events = 400

• i.e.,90+100+120+90=400
• (1) The probability of getting diamond cards:

• Number of trials in which diamond card is drawn = 90

• Therefore, P(diamond card) = 90/400 = 0.225

• (2) The probability of getting black cards:

• Number of trials in which black card showed up = 90+100 =190

• Therefore, P(black card) = 190/400 = 0.475


• (3) Except for spade

• Number of trials other than spade showed up = 90+100+120 =310

• Therefore, P(except spade) = 310/400 = 0.775

• Stay tuned with BYJU’S – The Learning App for more Maths-related
concepts and download the app for more personalized videos.
• In Statistics, descriptive statistics describe the data, whereas
inferential statistics help you make predictions from the data. In
inferential statistics, the data are taken from the sample and allows
you to generalize the population. In general, inference means “guess”,
which means making inference about something.
Descriptive Statistics:

• Definition: Descriptive statistics involves methods for organizing, displaying,


and describing data using tables, graphs, and summary measures.
• Purpose: To summarize and present data in a meaningful way.
• Example: Calculating the average test score of a class, creating a bar graph
of the number of students in different grade ranges, or finding the median
age of participants in a survey.
• Explanation: Descriptive statistics provides a clear picture of the data at
hand, helping to understand the basic features and distribution of the data.
Inferential Statistics:

• Definition: Inferential statistics involves methods for making predictions or


inferences about a population based on a sample of data drawn from that
population.
• Purpose: To make generalizations, predictions, or decisions about a population
based on sample data.
• Example: Estimating the average height of all students in a school based on the
heights of a sample of students, conducting hypothesis tests to determine if a new
drug is effective, or creating confidence intervals to estimate population parameters.
• Explanation: Inferential statistics allows researchers to draw conclusions about a
larger population without having to survey or measure every member of that
population.
Differences between Descriptive
and Inferential Statistics
• Scope:

• Descriptive Statistics: Focuses on describing the characteristics of a dataset.


• Inferential Statistics: Focuses on making inferences about a larger population
based on sample data.
• Objective:

• Descriptive Statistics: Summarizes data to reveal patterns and trends.


• Inferential Statistics: Makes predictions and tests hypotheses to draw
conclusions about a population.
Tools and Techniques:

• Descriptive Statistics: Includes measures of central tendency (mean,


median, mode), measures of dispersion (range, variance, standard
deviation), and graphical representations (histograms, pie charts, box
plots).
• Inferential Statistics: Includes hypothesis testing, confidence intervals,
regression analysis, and ANOVA.
Examples
Descriptive Statistics Examples:
• Example 1: Classroom Grades:

• Scenario: A teacher wants to summarize the performance of students in a final exam.


• Descriptive Statistics: Calculating the average score, median score, and standard
deviation of scores. Creating a histogram to display the distribution of scores.
• Example 2: Sales Data:

• Scenario: A company wants to understand its sales performance over the last quarter.
• Descriptive Statistics: Summarizing total sales, average sales per month, and creating
a line chart to show sales trends over time.
Example 3: Survey Responses:

• Scenario: A researcher conducts a survey to find out the favorite ice


cream flavors of participants.
• Descriptive Statistics: Counting the frequency of each flavor,
calculating percentages, and creating a bar graph to display the
results.
Inferential Statistics Examples:

• Example 1: Drug Efficacy:

• Scenario: A pharmaceutical company tests a new drug on a sample of


patients to determine its effectiveness.
• Inferential Statistics: Using hypothesis testing to determine if the drug
is significantly more effective than a placebo. Estimating the drug's
effect on the entire patient population with a confidence interval.
Example 2: Population Mean:

• Scenario: A researcher wants to estimate the average income of households in a city.


• Inferential Statistics: Drawing a random sample of households, calculating the
sample mean income, and using it to estimate the population mean income with a
confidence interval.
• Example 3: Election Polls:

• Scenario: A polling organization wants to predict the outcome of an election.


• Inferential Statistics: Conducting a survey of a sample of voters, analyzing the
results, and using them to predict the percentage of votes each candidate will
receive in the entire electorate.
Scope of Statistics
• Statistics is used in many sectors such as psychology, geology, sociology, weather forecasting,
probability and much more. The goal of statistics is to gain understanding from the data, it
focuses on applications, and hence, it is distinctively considered as a mathematical science.

• Methods in Statistics
• The methods involve collecting, summarizing, analyzing, and interpreting variable numerical
data. Here some of the methods are provided below.

• Data collection
• Data summarization
• Statistical analysis
Methods in Statistics
• The methods involve collecting, summarizing, analyzing, and
interpreting variable numerical data. Here some of the methods are
provided below.

• Data collection
• Data summarization
• Statistical analysis
What is Data in Statistics?
• Data is a collection of facts, such as numbers, words, measurements, observations etc.

• Types of Data
• Qualitative data- it is descriptive data.
• Example- She can run fast, He is thin.
• Quantitative data- it is numerical information.
• Example- An Octopus is an Eight legged creature.

• Types of quantitative data


• Discrete data- has a particular fixed value. It can be counted
• Continuous data- is not fixed but has a range of data. It can be measured.
Representation of Data
• There are different ways to represent data such as through graphs,
charts or tables. The general representation of statistical data are:

• Bar Graph
• Pie Chart
• Line Graph
• Pictograph
• Histogram
• Frequency Distribution
Measures of Central Tendency
• In Mathematics, statistics are used to describe the central tendencies
of the grouped and ungrouped data. The three measures of central
tendency are:

• Mean
• Median
• Mode
• All three measures of central tendency are used to find the central
value of the set of data.
ANOVA Statistics
• ANOVA Stands for Analysis of Variance. It is a collection of statistical models, used to measure the mean difference for
the given set of data.

• Degrees of freedom
• In statistical analysis, the degree of freedom is used for the values that are free to change. The independent data or
information that can be moved while estimating a parameter is the degree of freedom of information.

• Applications of Statistics
• Statistics have huge applications across various fields in Mathematics as well as in real life. Some of the applications of
statistics are given below:

• Applied statistics, theoretical statistics and mathematical statistics


• Machine learning and data mining
• Statistics in society
• Statistical computing
• Statistics applied to the mathematics of the arts
• What is Summary Statistics?
• Summary statistics is a type of descriptive statistics, which is used to summarize the set of
observations with large information as simply as possible. Statisticians used to describe the
observation by finding the measures of central tendency, statistical dispersion, statistical
dependence, and the shape of the distribution.
• How is statistics applicable in Maths?
• Statistics is a part of Applied Mathematics that uses probability theory to generalize the collected
sample data. It helps to characterize the likelihood where the generalizations of data are
accurate. This is known as statistical inference.
• What is the purpose of statistics?
• Statistics make us learn to utilize a restricted sample to make accurate determinations about a
more prominent populace. The utilization of tables, diagrams, and graphs assumes a crucial part
in introducing the information being utilized to reach these determinations.
• What is the importance of Statistics in real life?
• Statistics encourages you to utilize legitimate strategies to gather the
information, utilize the right examinations, and successfully present
the outcomes. Measurement is a significant cycle behind how we
make disclosures in science, settle on choices dependent on
information, and make forecasts.
Visual Representation
Descriptive Statistics:
• ---------------------------------------------------
• | Average Test Score: 75 |
• | Median Test Score: 78 |
• | Standard Deviation: 10 |
• | Graph: Histogram of Test Scores |
• ---------------------------------------------------
Inferential Statistics:
• ---------------------------------------------------
• | Sample Mean Income: $50,000 |
• | Confidence Interval: $48,000 - $52,000 |
• | Hypothesis Test: p-value < 0.05 (significant) |
• ---------------------------------------------------
probabilty
Probability
• Probability means possibility. It is a branch of mathematics that deals
with the occurrence of a random event. The value is expressed from
zero to one. Probability has been introduced in Maths to predict how
likely events are to happen. The meaning of probability is basically the
extent to which something is likely to happen. This is the basic
probability theory, which is also used in the probability distribution,
where you will learn the possibility of outcomes for a random
experiment. To find the probability of a single event to occur, first, we
should know the total number of possible outcomes.
Probability Definition in Math
• Probability is a measure of the likelihood of an event to occur. Many events
cannot be predicted with total certainty. We can predict only the chance of
an event to occur i.e., how likely they are going to happen, using it.
Probability can range from 0 to 1, where 0 means the event to be an
impossible one and 1 indicates a certain event. Probability for Class 10 is
an important topic for the students which explains all the basic concepts of
this topic. The probability of all the events in a sample space adds up to 1.

• For example, when we toss a coin, either we get Head OR Tail, only two
possible outcomes are possible (H, T). But when two coins are tossed then
there will be four possible outcomes, i.e {(H, H), (H, T), (T, H), (T, T)}.
Solved Examples
• 1) There are 6 pillows in a bed, 3 are red, 2 are yellow and 1 is blue. What is the probability of picking a yellow pillow?

• Ans: The probability is equal to the number of yellow pillows in the bed divided by the total number of pillows, i.e. 2/6 = 1/3.

• 2) There is a container full of coloured bottles, red, blue, green and orange. Some of the bottles are picked out and displaced.
Sumit did this 1000 times and got the following results:

• No. of blue bottles picked out: 300


• No. of red bottles: 200
• No. of green bottles: 450
• No. of orange bottles: 50
• a) What is the probability that Sumit will pick a green bottle?

• Ans: For every 1000 bottles picked out, 450 are green.

• Therefore, P(green) = 450/1000 = 0.45


• b) If there are 100 bottles in the container, how many of them are
likely to be green?

• Ans: The experiment implies that 450 out of 1000 bottles are green.

• Therefore, out of 100 bottles, 45 are green.


• Types of Probability
• There are three major types of probabilities:

• Theoretical Probability
• Experimental Probability
• Axiomatic Probability
• Theoretical Probability
• It is based on the possible chances of something to happen. The theoretical probability is mainly based on the
reasoning behind probability. For example, if a coin is tossed, the theoretical probability of getting a head will
be ½.

• Experimental Probability
• It is based on the basis of the observations of an experiment. The experimental probability can be calculated
based on the number of possible outcomes by the total number of trials. For example, if a coin is tossed 10
times and head is recorded 6 times then, the experimental probability for heads is 6/10 or, 3/5.
• Axiomatic Probability
• In axiomatic probability, a set of rules or axioms are set which applies to
all types. These axioms are set by Kolmogorov and are known as
Kolmogorov’s three axioms. With the axiomatic approach to probability,
the chances of occurrence or non-occurrence of the events can be
quantified. The axiomatic probability lesson covers this concept in detail
with Kolmogorov’s three rules (axioms) along with various examples.

• Conditional Probability is the likelihood of an event or outcome


occurring based on the occurrence of a previous event or outcome.
Probability of an Event
• Assume an event E can occur in r ways out of a sum of n probable or possible equally likely ways. Then the probability of
happening of the event or its success is expressed as;

• P(E) = r/n

• The probability that the event will not occur or known as its failure is expressed as:

• P(E’) = (n-r)/n = 1-(r/n)

• E’ represents that the event will not occur.

• Therefore, now we can say;

• P(E) + P(E’) = 1

• This means that the total of all the probabilities in any random test or experiment is equal to 1.
What are Equally Likely Events?
• When the events have the same theoretical probability of happening, then they
are called equally likely events. The results of a sample space are called equally
likely if all of them have the same probability of occurring. For example, if you
throw a die, then the probability of getting 1 is 1/6. Similarly, the probability of
getting all the numbers from 2,3,4,5 and 6, one at a time is 1/6. Hence, the
following are some examples of equally likely events when throwing a die:

• Getting 3 and 5 on throwing a die


• Getting an even number and an odd number on a die
• Getting 1, 2 or 3 on rolling a die
• are equally likely events, since the probabilities of each event are equal.
Complementary Events
• The possibility that there will be only two outcomes which states that
an event will occur or not. Like a person will come or not come to
your house, getting a job or not getting a job, etc. are examples of
complementary events. Basically, the complement of an event
occurring in the exact opposite that the probability of it is not
occurring. Some more examples are:

• It will rain or not rain today


• The student will pass the exam or not pass.
• You win the lottery or you don’t.
Probability Theory
• Probability theory had its root in the 16th century when J. Cardan, an
Italian mathematician and physician, addressed the first work on the
topic, The Book on Games of Chance. After its inception, the knowledge
of probability has brought to the attention of great mathematicians.
Thus, Probability theory is the branch of mathematics that deals with the
possibility of the happening of events. Although there are many distinct
probability interpretations, probability theory interprets the concept
precisely by expressing it through a set of axioms or hypotheses. These
hypotheses help form the probability in terms of a possibility space,
which allows a measure holding values between 0 and 1. This is known
as the probability measure, to a set of possible outcomes of the sample
space.
Probability Density Function
• The Probability Density Function (PDF) is the probability function
which is represented for the density of a continuous random variable
lying between a certain range of values. Probability Density Function
explains the normal distribution and how mean and deviation exists.
The standard normal distribution is used to create a database or
statistics, which are often used in science to represent the real-valued
variables, whose distribution is not known.
Applications of Probability
• Probability has a wide variety of applications in real life. Some of the
common applications which we see in our everyday life while
checking the results of the following events:

• Choosing a card from the deck of cards


• Flipping a coin
• Throwing a dice in the air
• Pulling a red ball out of a bucket of red and white balls
• Winning a lucky draw
• Other Major Applications of Probability
• It is used for risk assessment and modelling in various industries
• Weather forecasting or prediction of weather changes
• Probability of a team winning in a sport based on players and strength
of team
• In the share market, chances of getting the hike of share prices
Problems and Solutions on Probability
Question 1: Find the probability of ‘getting 3 on
rolling a die’.
• Solution:

• Sample Space = S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

• Total number of outcomes = n(S) = 6

• Let A be the event of getting 3.

• Number of favourable outcomes = n(A) = 1

• i.e. A = {3}

• Probability, P(A) = n(A)/n(S) = 1/6

• Hence, P(getting 3 on rolling a die) = 1/6


Question 2: Draw a random card from a pack of
cards. What is the probability that the card drawn is
a face card?
• Solution:

• A standard deck has 52 cards.

• Total number of outcomes = n(S) = 52

• Let E be the event of drawing a face card.

• Number of favourable events = n(E) = 4 x 3 = 12 (considered Jack, Queen and King only)

• Probability, P = Number of Favourable Outcomes/Total Number of Outcomes

• P(E) = n(E)/n(S)

• = 12/52

• = 3/13

• P(the card drawn is a face card) = 3/13


• Question 3: A vessel contains 4 blue balls, 5 red balls and 11 white balls. If three balls are drawn from the vessel at random, what is the probability that the
first ball is red, the second ball is blue, and the third ball is white?

• Solution:

• Given,

• The probability to get the first ball is red or the first event is 5/20.

• Since we have drawn a ball for the first event to occur, then the number of possibilities left for the second event to occur is 20 – 1 = 19.

• Hence, the probability of getting the second ball as blue or the second event is 4/19.

• Again with the first and second event occurring, the number of possibilities left for the third event to occur is 19 – 1 = 18.

• And the probability of the third ball is white or the third event is 11/18.

• Therefore, the probability is 5/20 x 4/19 x 11/18 = 44/1368 = 0.032.

• Or we can express it as: P = 3.2%.


• Question 4: Two dice are rolled, find the probability that the sum is:

• equal to 1
• equal to 4
• less than 13
• Solution:

• To find the probability that the sum is equal to 1 we have to first determine the sample space S of
two dice as shown below.
• S = { (1,1),(1,2),(1,3),(1,4),(1,5),(1,6)
• (2,1),(2,2),(2,3),(2,4),(2,5),(2,6)
• (3,1),(3,2),(3,3),(3,4),(3,5),(3,6)
• (4,1),(4,2),(4,3),(4,4),(4,5),(4,6)
• (5,1),(5,2),(5,3),(5,4),(5,5),(5,6)
• (6,1),(6,2),(6,3),(6,4),(6,5),(6,6) }
• So, n(S) = 36
• 1) Let E be the event “sum equal to 1”. Since, there are no outcomes which where a sum is equal to 1, hence,
• P(E) = n(E) / n(S) = 0 / 36 = 0
• 2) Let A be the event of getting the sum of numbers on dice equal to 4.
• Three possible outcomes give a sum equal to 4 they are:
• A = {(1,3),(2,2),(3,1)}
• n(A) = 3
• Hence, P(A) = n(A) / n(S) = 3 / 36 = 1 / 12
• 3) Let B be the event of getting the sum of numbers on dice is less than 13.
• From the sample space, we can see all possible outcomes for the event B, which gives a sum less than B. Like:
• (1,1) or (1,6) or (2,6) or (6,6).
• So you can see the limit of an event to occur is when both dies have number 6, i.e. (6,6).
• Thus, n(B) = 36
• Hence,
• P(B) = n(B) / n(S) = 36 / 36 = 1
Probability Problems
• Two dice are thrown together. Find the probability that the product of the numbers on the top of the
dice is:
• (i) 6 (ii) 12 (iii) 7
• A bag contains 10 red, 5 blue and 7 green balls. A ball is drawn at random. Find the probability of this
ball being a
• (i) red ball (ii) green ball (iii) not a blue ball
• All the jacks, queens and kings are removed from a deck of 52 playing cards. The remaining cards are
well shuffled and then one card is drawn at random. Giving ace a value 1 similar value for other cards,
find the probability that the card has a value
• (i) 7 (ii) greater than 7 (iii) less than 7
• A die has its six faces marked 0, 1, 1, 1, 6, 6. Two such dice are thrown together and the total score is
recorded.
• (i) How many different scores are possible?
• (ii) What is the probability of getting a total of 7?
• Q4
• What are the basic rules of probability?
• If A and B are two events, then;
• P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)−P(A∩B)
• P(A∩B)=P(B)⋅P(A|B)
• Q5
• What is the complement rule in probability?
• In probability, the complement rule states that “the sum of probabilities of an event
and its complement should be equal to 1”. If A is an event, then the complement
rule is given as:
• P(A) + P(A’) = 1.
• Q6
• What are the different ways to present the probability value?
• The three ways to present the probability values are:

• Percentage
• Ratio
• Decimal or fraction
• Q7
• What does the probability of 0 represent?
• The probability of 0 represents that the event will not happen or that it is an impossible event.

• Q8
• What is the sample space for tossing two coins?
• The sample space for tossing two coins is:
• S = {HH, HT, TH, TT}

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