Statistics and Probability

Quarter 4
Statistical Hypotheses
Level of Significance
Rejection Region
Types of Errors
CG CODE: M11/12SP-IVa1
CG CODE: M11/12SP-IVa3
 The learners will be able to:
Objectives
Identify parameters to be tested
given a real life problem.

Illustrate null hypothesis,

alternative hypothesis, level of
significance, and rejection region,

differentiate the types of error, and

Hypothesis Testing
It is a decision-making process for
evaluating claims about a population
based on the characteristics of a sample
supposedly coming from that
population.
It is basically testing an assumption
that we can make about a population.

A hypothesis is an assumption or conjecture

about a population parameter which may or
may not be true.
In conducting hypothesis testing, it is important that we know how to identify the parameter
to be tested. Study the examples below.
Statistical Hypotheses
There are two types of statistical hypotheses, the null hypothesis and alternative
hypothesis.

Null hypothesis: Alternative hypothesis, denoted by

 It is denoted by H0  It is denoted by H1
 It is the initial claim.  It is the contrary to the null
 It shows no significant difference, hypothesis
no changes, nothing happened, no  It shows that there is significant
relationship between two difference, an effect, a change, a
parameters. relationship between parameters
 The independent variable has no and specific value.
effect on the dependent variable.  The independent variable has an
effect on the dependent variable.
Five essential steps in hypothesis testing
1. Formulate the null and alternative hypotheses.
2. Select an appropriate test statistic and
procedure.
3. Choose the level of significance (𝛼) and
establish the rejection region.
4. Compute the value of the test statistic from
the sample data.
5. Decide and draw the appropriate conclusion.
Common Phrases in
Hypothesis Testing
(= ≠ > < ≤)
Example 1
The average age of drivers in Metro manila is
38.8 years. H0: 𝜇 = 38.8 years.
H1: 𝜇 ≠ 38.8 years.
Example 2

The average number of calories of a low- calorie

meal is at most 300.
H0: 𝜇 ≥ 300.
H1: 𝜇 < 300.
 Example 3
The school record claims that the mean score in Math of
incoming Grade 11 students is 81. The teacher wishes to find
out if the claims is true. The teacher tests if there is a significant
difference between the batch mean score and the mean score
of students in her class.
Null and Alternative
Null and Alternative Hypotheses in Sentence Hypotheses in Symbol
H0: The mean score of incoming Grade 11 students is H0: 𝜇 = 81
81.
H1: The mean score of incoming Grade 11 students is H1: 𝜇 ≠ 81
not 81.
 Example 4
A social worker wants to test (at α = 0.05) whether
the average body mass index(BMI) of the pupils under
the feeding program is different from 18.2kg.

Null and Alternative

Null and Alternative Hypotheses in Sentence Hypotheses in Symbol
H0: The average BMI of the pupils under the feeding H0: 𝜇 = 18.2kg
program is not different from 18.2kg
H1: The average BMI of the pupils under the feeding H1: 𝜇 ≠ 18.2kg
program is different from 18.2kg
 Example 5

A DTI representative wants to test at 99%

confidence level whether the average content of
soda X is less than 330 ml as indicated in the label.
Null and Alternative
Null and Alternative Hypotheses in Sentence Hypotheses in Symbol
H0: The average content of soda X is greater than or H0: 𝜇 ≥ 330ml
equal to 330 ml
H1: The average content of soda X is less than 330 ml H1: 𝜇 < 330ml
 Example 6
A mobile phone Company claims that the lifespan of its
products is normally distributed with a mean of 60 months.
What can you say to this claim if a random sample of 50 phones
produced by this company has a mean lifespan of 63 months
and a standard deviation of 2 months?
Null and Alternative
Null and Alternative Hypotheses in words Hypotheses in symbol
H0: The average lifespan of phones produced by the H0: 𝜇 = 60
company is equal to 60 months.
H1: The average lifespan of phones produced by the H1: 𝜇 ≠ 60
company is not equal to 60 months.
1%, 5% or
10%

 Level of Significance
 One-tailed and Two-
tailed Test
 Level of Significance In testing a given hypothesis

Significance is define as the quality of being statistically significant.

Level of Significance
 It is denoted by alpha(α) refers to he degree of significance in which
we accept or reject the null hypothesis.
 100% accuracy is not possible in accepting or rejecting a hypothesis.
 The significance level is also the probability of making the wrong
decision when the null hypothesis is true.
 In public health research alpha is usually 0.01 or 1%. In social
science, alpha is usually 0.05 or 5% and 0.10 or 10% in other studies.
Level of Significance In testing a given hypothesis, the
maximum probability with which we would be willing to risk
a Type I error is called the level of significance ( 𝛼) of the test.
In practice, a level of significance of 0.05 or 0.01 is
customary, although other values may also be used. If
for example a 5% level of significance is chosen, then
there are about 5 chances in 100 that we would reject
the hypothesis when it should be accepted.
In other words, whenever the null hypothesis is true, we are
about 95% confident that we would make the right decision.
 One-Tailed Test VS Two-Tailed Test
When the alternative hypothesis is two-sided like H1: 𝜇 ≠ 𝜇0 ,it
is called two-tailed test.

When the given statistics hypothesis assumes a less than or

greater than value, it is called one-tailed test.
 Examples
The average age of drivers in Metro manila is 38.8 years.
H0: 𝜇 = 38.8 years.
H1: 𝜇 ≠ 38.8 years.

If H1uses ≠, it is a two-tailed test.

 Examples
However:
If the average age of drivers in Metro manila is less than
38.8 years.
H0: 𝜇 ≥ 38.8 years.
H1: 𝜇 < 38.8 years.
If H1uses <, in this case it is left-tailed(one-tailed test).
 Examples
If the average age of drivers in Metro manila is greater than
38.8 years.
H0: 𝜇 ≤ 38.8 years.
H1: 𝜇 > 38.8 years.
If H1uses >, in this case it is right-tailed(one-tailed test).
 Let’s try: Determine if one-tailed test or two-tailed test fits the
given alternative hypothesis.
One-tailed test1.The mean average of Grade 11 students is less than 66
inches.
Two-tailed test 2.The standard deviation of their height is not equal to 5
inches.
Two-tailed test 3.Male Grade 7 and Grade 12 students differ in height on
average.
One-tailed test4.The proportions of senior male students’ height is
significantly higher than that of senior female students.
One-tailed test5.The average grade of Grade 11 students in Statistics is
lower than their average grade in Calculus.
Rejection Region
Rejection region is the area in the normal curve
(shaded region) that leads to rejection of the null
hypothesis.
 Types of Errors

Type I and Type II Errors

Rejecting the null hypothesis when it is true is called a type I error
with probability denoted by alpha(α). In hypothesis testing, the
normal curve that shows the critical regions is called the alpha
region.
Accepting the null hypothesis when it is false is called a type II
error with probability denoted by beta (β). In, hypothesis testing,
the normal curve that shows the acceptance region is called the
beta region.
If the null hypothesis is true and accepted, or if the null hypothesis is
false and rejected. You are making a correct decision.
If the null hypothesis is true and rejected, incorrect decision and
it is a Type I error.
If the null hypothesis is false and accepted, incorrect decision,
and it is a Type II error.
Important properties of Type I and Type II errors

1. A decrease in the probability of type I error (denoted by 𝛼)

would result in an increase in the probability of the Type II
error (denoted by 𝛽) and vice-versa.
2. The probability of committing a type I error (which also
corresponds to the area of the critical region), can be reduced
by adjusting the critical value(s).
3. Increasing the sample size will reduce the probability of Type I
and Type II error.
4. The probability of Type II error will be a maximum if the true
value of a parameter is close to the hypothesized value.
The usual acceptable values of α used are 0.05 and 0.01. If α = 0.05, then
the probability of rejecting a true null hypothesis is 5%, which means
that the probability of not rejecting a true null hypothesis is 95%.

Example 1: Identify what type of error committed by the given.

Type I Error 1.Susan insists that she is 55 years old, when in fact she is
60 years old. What error is Susan committing?
Type I Error 2.Lolo Ed says that he is not bald. His hairline is just
receding. Is he committing an error? If so, what type of
error?
Type II Error 3.A man hunts a Tamaraw of the Philippines believing that
it is a proof of his bravery and strength. What type of
error is this?
 Example 2
Create the types of errors in sentence: The mean
number of years a teacher work before retiring is 35.
Type I Error: We conclude that the mean number of
years a teacher work before retiring is…
not 35 years, when it really is 35 years.
Type II Error: We conclude that the mean number of
years a teacher work before retiring is…
35 years, when in fact it is not 35 years.
The Type I Error taught us that…
The Type II Error
taught us that…
The correct decision taught us,
if it is the truth then all you
need to do is to embrace it.
Activity: A. Analyze the possibilities of Jessica’s conclusion. Identify
if it is a Type I Error, Type II Error, or a Correct Decision.

If Jessica finds out that her null hypothesis is…

1. True and she fails to reject it, then she commits a…
2. True and she rejects its, then she commits a…
3. True and she accept it, then she commits a…
4. False and she fails to reject it, then she commits a…
5. False and she rejects it, then she commits a…
6. False and accept it, then she commits a…
 B. Identify the following.
1. ________is a statistical decision using experimental data to assume about the
population parameter.
2. ________, denoted by H0, is defined as a hypothesis of no difference. It assumes
that the observations are only due to a chance factor
3. ________, denoted by H1, is the opposite of the null hypothesis. It states that
there is a significant difference and that observations are the result of a real effect.
4. If H1 is bidirectional, then it is a ________ test. On the other hand, if H1 is
directional, then it is a ________ test.
5. Type I error is a type of error in which the null hypothesis is _____when it is true.
6. Type II error is a type of error in which the null hypothesis is _____ when it is false.
7. The maximum probability with which we would be willing to risk a Type I error is
called the __________of the test.
8. Rejection region is the area in the normal curve (shaded region) that leads to
rejection of the ________.