CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION

• Meaning of Population Geography:

 is the scientific study of human population primarily with respect to
their size, structure, composition, distribution and the dynamic
nature of human population.
 is concerned with demonstrating how spatial variations in the
distribution, composition, migrations and growth of populations
are related to spatial variations in the nature of places. The
emphasis is particularly on space.
• Population geography or geography of population - the terms have
the same meaning -deals with the:-
• dynamic nature of population change particularly the key
components: fertility, mortality and migration
• global, regional and local increase in population
• structure and composition of the population
• Interrelationships between population, resources and
development.
 Difference b/n Population Geo and Demography
• Demography and population geography are concerned with
the same topic: the study of human populations.
• Basically, they are quantitative disciplines that mainly use
statistical data, but they also employ qualitative approaches.
• The main difference between the two sciences is the fact that
the demographer places his/her emphasis on time whereas
the geographer places her/his emphasis on space.
• Population studies, are concerned with the way in which
populations are distributed across space and time, together
with the various factors which generate change in the spatio-
temporal patterns.
 The Scope of Population Geography
• Focuses mainly on demographic variables of fertility, mortality and
migration and , their outcome - namely, population change.
• Perhaps the central concern is population distribution
• In addition, the age, sex, and marital characteristics of populations are
usually given high priority, primarily because of their impact on the three
demographic variables.
• But also Some population geographers would include a range of social and
economic indicators, such as education level, language, religion, ethnicity,
and occupation,
• whereas others would give higher priority to rural and urban residential
characteristics.
• Still others, stress on examining important issues like population and
resources, population and environmental quality, population and politics,
and population policy.
 Sources and problems of Population data

• There are two major categories of demographic data:

conventional and non-conventional.
 Conventional Sources of Demographic Data
• There are three principal conventional sources of demographic data:
population census, sample survey and vital registration system.

• 1. Population Census
• A census is a periodic head-count of the population and some
of its characteristics.
• It is the main source of population statistics in many
countries.
• It is usually defined as “the total process of collecting,
compiling and publishing demographic and socio-economic
data pertaining to all persons in a defined territory at a
specified time.”
• Though types and quantities of data collected by censuses
vary enormously from country to country it should include:
• total population
• age, sex and marital status
• place of birth, citizenship or nationality
• first language, literacy and educational qualifications
• economic status
• urban or rural domicile
• household or family structure and
• fertility
• As regard to the timing of a census, it is better to conduct
censuses at a time when population movement is at
minimal.
• Thus, the height of the holiday season, for example, would
not be a good time to conduct a census.
 Essential Features of Census

• 1. Defined Periodicity: Censuses should be taken at regular intervals in

order to provide comparable information in a fixed sequence.
• It is recommended that a national census be taken at intervals of ten years.
• 2. Universality within a defined territory: The census covers a precisely
defined territory. and includes every person present or reside within its
scope.
• 3. Simultaneity: The population is enumerated with respect to a well-
defined point of time, the data are in terms of a well defined reference
period.
• 4. Individual Enumeration: Each individual is enumerated separately and
the characteristics of each person are recorded separately.
• 5. Government Sponsorship: A census is a massive, complex and
costly statistical operation. It is carried out by the government,
which has the legal authority to ensure the completeness of
coverage. Government planning, financing, administration and
monitoring of census operation is a must.
 Approaches to population Census

• The two approaches of population census are: the de facto and de jure.
• de facto approach, each individual is counted at a place where he/she was
found at the time of census/enumeration.
• Anyone on vacation out of the country goes uncounted. A foreign tourist within
the country at the time of the census, however, is recorded.
• The de facto approach is the most commonly and widely used
• advantage :it offers less chance of double counting or omission of persons
• disadvantages :It is difficult to obtain facts regarding persons in transit.
• It provides an incorrect picture of the usual population of the community.
• de jure approach, people are enumerated at their place of usual residence. It
assumes that people ‘belong’ to a particular place.
• advantage: it gives a picture of the permanent population of a given area.
• demerit some persons may be omitted or counted twice.
• Such features of population as high levels of mobility, ownership of more than
one or homelessness make the de jure approach less satisfactory.:
 2. Demographic Sample Survey

• Sample survey is a canvass of selected households in a village

with a view to collect information on demographic attributes as
well as socio-economic conditions.
• Sample surveys seek to collect information from a segment of
population.
• Thus, they are not reliable as censuses.
• The main objective of sample surveys is to estimate the total
population and its geographical distribution as well as
population change.
• The advantages of using a sample over a complete census are:
• a sample can be taken much faster than a complete enumeration
• is much cheaper to administer than a complete enumeration;
• the quality and accuracy of a sample can be greater than with a
complete enumeration,
• less paperwork and data handling and processing can be easier.
 3. Vital Registration System/Vital Statistics

• Vital statistics record what demographers term vital events.

• The two events of primary concern are birth and death; in many parts of the
world today it is a legal requirement for each person to receive officially
validated birth and death certificates.
• Other commonly recorded events are marriage, divorce, and, increasingly,
abortion.
• The history of vital statistics is a recent one compared to the census.
• A vital registration system is therefore, defined as a system of recording vital
events on continuous basis.
• There are two main approaches in vital registration system: active and passive
registration systems.
• i) Active Registration System: - In this method the staff members usually
visit the household to collect relevant information regarding vital events.
• ii) Passive Registration System: -Here the member of the household reports
the events as soon as they occur to the concerned agencies.
• It is more common in the developed world.
• If properly administered, the methods provide recent information on vital
events.
 Non- Conventional Sources of Demographic Data

• In the absence of any basic demographic data, the

quest for using non- conventional sources of
demographic data is unquestionable.
• These are usually records held by various public and
private institutions.
• Suggested non-conventional sources of demographic
data include:
 the records of hospitals
 educational institutions
 primary vaccination statistics
 employment statistics, and
 taxation records.
UNIT 2. TRENDS IN POPULATION GROWTH ND PATTERNS IN DISTRIBUTION

– Global Distribution Pattern

• The distribution of population over the world’s surface is uneven and
there are considerable variations in density.
• Land accounts for about 30 percent of the earth’s surface (70.9 per cent is
water).
• Of the land area, only about 11 per cent presents no serious limitations to
settlement and agriculture.
• Much of the remainder is desert, snow and ice, high or steep-sided
mountains, and forest.
• One method of describing the distribution of the world’s population is to
divide the world into two groups, the ecumene and non ecumene.
• The ecumene is the permanently inhabited portion of the world, whereas
the nonecumene is the uninhabited or virtually uninhabited portion.
• The less developed regions accounts for 80% of the world’s total
population
• Thus, only 20% is confined to more developed regions.
• Of all continents, Asia alone contributed nearly 60% of the
world’s total followed by Africa (771 million), Europe (728
million), South America (512 million), North America (303
million) and Oceania (30 million).
• It has been pointed that more than 90% of the world’s
population is confined to the Northern hemisphere,
• Within the northern hemisphere, the latitudinal distribution
of population offers sharp differences in the concentration.
• Example:
• 0 – 200 N latitude account for about 10% of the world’s
population (A)
• 20 – 400 N latitude/zone claims more than 50% of the world’s
population (A)
• 40 – 600 N latitude have about 30% of the world’s population
(mainly in Europe)
• Only less than 1% lives in regions north of 600 N latitude
• Interestingly, both crowded and sparse concentrations are found in:
• Traditional as well as technically advanced societies
• New as well as old world (Europe and Asia)
• Tropics and latitudes
• The old world is far more populous than the new.
• Broadly speaking, dense concentration of population is largely
confined to East Asia, South Asia, Western Europe and North
eastern United States.
• While in Europe and Anglo-America the highest densities were
linked high degree of urban/industrial development, in the case of
Asia, the densities were linked more or less with farm densities.
• By comparison, very low densities were typical of more extensive
areas, large territories covering drought regions, cold regions in the
high latitudes, high altitude lands and wet tropical lands were
nearly empty lands of the world.
 Factors Affecting Population Distribution

• The major factors affecting population distribution may

broadly be classified into three: physical, socio-cultural and
demographic factors.
• Physical Factors
• Included among the various physical factors that affect the
distribution of population are:
• Climate (temperature and precipitation)
• Relief (landforms)
• Soils
• Energy resources and minerals
• Accessibility (space relationship)
 Climate
• Climate affects the spatial distribution of population through temperature

conditions, amount of precipitation and the length of growing season. It has been

recognized that man cannot go beyond the limits set by the climate.

• Cold climates are much suitable for human habitation.

• The northern high latitudes have one-tenth of the total area but only few

thousands of total population.

• In mining, industrial and scientific centers in both hot and cold climates modern

techniques permit solutions to climatic extremes.

• There is no one ‘best’ climate and most people live in south east Asia which has a

monsoonal climate, with hot, wet season and hot, dry seasons.

• The key to explaining population distribution is the ability to support (feed) a

population.
 b) Relief

• Landforms influence the distribution of population at macro and micro

scales.
• The factors like altitude, slope and drainage have been affecting
population distribution more clearly at local level.
• Areas characterized by different terrain have sparse population.
• Wherever the landform is hospitable, population has tended to cluster.
• By comparison, the rugged terrain has repelled human settlement
largely because of:
• Limited cultivable land
• High cost of agricultural operation
• Inaccessibility
• Apart from the factor of altitude, the degree of slope is also a crucial
determinant of population distribution particularly in mountainous and
hilly terrain.
• The steepness of slope delimits the extent of arable land.
 c) Soils

• The attractiveness of a region for human settlement may depend upon the

quality of the soil.

• It has been said that the pedozols of higher latitudes and the laterites of

tropics, which generally impede intensive cultivation discourage effective

settlement.

• On the other hand, the lava of volcanic regions, the deep alluvium deposits

of the river basins and the grassland soils of the middle and sub-tropical

latitudes have immense capacity for supporting large population.

• d) Availability of minerals and energy resources

• e) Accessibility (Space-relationships)
 Socio-Cultural factors

• Among the various cultural factors that have

controlling effect upon population distribution are:
• The type of settlement

• The type of economy

• Advancement in technology

• Political decisions

• Social Organizations
 Demographic Factors

• The changes in the distribution of population in the world take place

through the variations in the rate of natural increase and also through the
medium of migration between areas.
 Measures of Population Distribution
• Measures of Population Density
• Density of population (man/land ratio) is usually calculated on a national
basis.
• Ways of measuring of population densities:
• Crude/Arithmetic Density
• Crude density refers to the number of persons per unit area and is usually
calculated by dividing the total population of an area divided by its total
land area.
• Mathematically, it can be expressed as follow:
 b) Physiological/Nutritional Density

• It is the ratio of population to arable land, a measure referred to as

physiological or nutritional density.
• Arable land is that portion of the earth’s land surface that is suitable for
tillage,
• Nutritional density cannot account for the great variations in productivity
within arable areas that are the result of such environmental characteristics
as drainage, soil, and climate.
• Physiological density is obtained by dividing the total population of an
area by its total arable land. It is expressed as the number of persons per
unit cultivable/arable land.
• b)
•
 Measures of Population Concentration

• Geographers are naturally interested in the unevenness of

population both at a given point in time and as an evolutionary
process.
• A method of measuring population concentration is by using
Lorenz Curve ( a graphical method widely used for analyzing
the spatial distribution of population in terms of its
concentration and dispersion).
• The degree of concentration is great where a population is
assembled at one point and least where it is evenly distributed.
• If the population is evenly distributed, the Lorenz curve
would be a straight diagonal line across the graph.
• But if the population is concentrated at one point, the more the
Lorenz curve deviates from that line.
• If the population of all areal units increases at the same rate,
then the concentration curve will not change.
• Lorenz curves are used to show inequalities in distributions.
• Population, industry and land use are three topics of
interest to the population geographer, which show unequal
distributions over a given area.
• The diagonal line represents a perfectly even distribution,
while the concave curve illustrates the degree of
concentration of populations within a given area.
• The concavity of the slope, the greater the inequality of
population distribution (or industry, land use, etc.).
• It is constructed from a graph in which the percentage of population
is represented on one axis and the percentage of area on the other.
Both are cumulative, moving from 0 to 100 percent.
• A completely uniform density throughout the area would come out
as a straight 450 line bisecting the graph.
• The departure from uniformity is shown by the degree of the line’s
concavity
 The drawing of a Lorenz curve proceeds as follow:

• Mean population densities are calculated for all equivalent units

that make up the study area.
• Those areal units are arranged in order of decreasing density of
population, and then populations and areal units are totaled for
each density class.
• Cumulative percentage of areas (y-axis) are plotted against
cumulative percentages of population(x-axis).
• So working from the lower densities class to the highest, the
plotting enables the curve to be drawn.
 CHAPTER THREE
COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE

• Components of Population Change

• Hence, the total population of any particular area represents the balance
between two components: the natural change component and the
migration change component
• The relative importance of natural and migrational change varies
considerably over space and time.
• In broad terms, the two components can assume two different
combinations, producing three different out comes: fertility, mortality
and migration.
• They can work together, either increasing or decreasing the population of
an area; or they can work against each other.
 3.1 Fertility

 Concept of Fertility, fecundity and reproduction.

 fertility refers to the actual occurrence of live births, which refers to
the number of children actually born to women in a population.
 fecundity refers to the reproductive capacity of a woman during her
entire reproductive period.
• it is the capacity of a woman, a man or a couple to have children-
lack of this capacity is called sterility.
• it refers to the fertility potential of a woman.
• Still fertility and fecundity are quite different from reproduction.
• Reproduction is the degree to which people, within a given age
range, are replaced by people of the same age a generation later.
 Basic Measures of Fertility

• fertility is one of the three basic components of population change

• .In order to calculate the magnitude of population change in an area, it is

essential to measure fertility precisely.

• Various measures of fertility have been coined. These include:

• Crude Birth Rate

• Child Woman Ratio

• General Fertility Rate

• Age Specific Fertility rate

• Total Fertility Rate

• Gross Reproductive Rate

 (i) Crude Birth Rate (CBR)

• Crude birth rate is the most simple and widely used measure of fertility.
• It merely expresses the ratio of live births occurring in a year to the total
mid-year population.
• It indicates the number of live births per 1000 persons. Mathematically, it
can be expressed as follow:

• The CBR is easy to calculate and the data are readily available.
• However, the CBR does not take into account the age and sex structure
of the population.
• Hence, in a population with large proportion of people aged 20 – 30 ,
we would normally expect relatively high birth rate
 (ii) Child Woman Ratio (CWR)

• The child –woman ratio is an indirect measure of fertility that is used to

estimate fertility where birth records are deficient or nonexistent.
• It is usually calculated by taking the number of children in the age group 0
– 4 (both sexes combined) and dividing it by the number of women at the
reproductive ages, usually taken as the ages 15 – 49 years.
• Mathematically it can be expressed as :

The child woman ratio, then, indicates the number of children under five years
of age per 1000 females in their child bearing years
 (iii) General Fertility Rate (GFR)

• General fertility rate is a more refined measure of fertility than

either crude birth rate or child woman ratio.
• As with the crude birth rate, actual numbers of births are used
in the numerator.
• In the denominator the total population is replaced by the total
number of females in the childbearing age groups, 15 -49
years of age.
• The general fertility rate calculated as :
 (iv) Age Specific Fertility Rate (ASFR)

• Age specific birth rates are useful because child bearing varies
considerably with age.
• The age specific fertility rate is analogous to the general fertility rate, but
instead of having the total number of females in the child bearing age
group as the denominator, it has the total number of women in a smaller
age group, such as one year or five year age group.
• The numerator, then, is the total number of children born in any given year
to mothers in the specific age group.
• Normally five year age groups are used. There are seven age groups. It can
be calculated as under:
 (v) Total Fertility Rate (TFR)

• It refers to the average number of children a woman would have at the

end of her childbearing age.
• It indicates the number of children born to a woman who has passed all
her reproductive ages.
• Total fertility rate is the sum total of age specific fertility rates.
• Mathematically, it can be expressed as follow:

Where, Bi = the number of births to females in the group ‘ i ’ in one –year period, Fi = the
midyear number of females in the group ‘ i ’, and
i = five-year age groups as follows: 15 – 19, 20 – 24, 25 – 29, 30 – 34, 35 – 39, 40 – 44,
45 – 49, for a total of 7 different age groups.
A total fertility rate of 2.1 is considered as a ‘replacement level’.
 (vi) Gross Reproductive Rate (GRR)

• Gross Reproductive Rate is the same as the total fertility rate

except that only female births are counted.
• Thus, it gives the average number of daughters a woman
would have if she passed through her entire reproductive life
at the prevailing age-specific birth rates.
• Mathematically, it can be expressed as under

Where, fBi = denotes female births to mothers of age group i

fPi = stands for female population in age group i
n = age interval (usually taken as 5 years)
• In another way, if the total fertility rate and sex ratio at birth are known,
you can calculate the GRR.
• Sex ratio at birth means the number of males to females, which are born in
the course of the year.
• Let us say that the fertility of country Z is 6.8 and the sex ratio at birth is
103.
• This implies that 103 males for every 100 females or 103/100. The
proportion of males at birth is 103/203 (103 male births out of 203 total
live births) and the proportion of females is 100/203.
• Hence, GRR is the product of TFR and the proportion of female births.
The GRR of country ‘Z’ is therefore,

The GRR of 3.35 implies 3.35 daughters will replace every

woman, on average, roughly in the future generation
 Spatial Fertility Patterns and Trends

• Fertility varies in both space and time.

 Patterns of Fertility
• The patterns of fertility are not kept constant all over the world.
• It greatly varies from place to place.
 the highest levels of fertility, with CBR of 47 live births per 1000 persons
and over, are found in West and East Africa.
 The lowest with crude birth rates of less than 17 live births per 1000 persons
are found in the European Region (Europe, North America and Australia).
 At a country level, the CBR ranges from 51 per 1000 in Niger to 9 per 1000
in West Germany.
• In TFR, whole of Africa and the Middle East stand out as one huge
continuous area experiencing the highest rates of fertility ( 5 children per a
woman).
• At the other end of the scale, North America again appears as a region of
very low fertility (<2 children per a woman).
• Individually the fertility rates range from 8 in Rwanda to just 1 in Denmark
and West Germany.
 Fertility Trends

• Fertility varies not only from place to place; it also varies from
time to time.
• It has been widely argued that in almost all countries of the
world, the crude birth today is lower than it was a century ago.
• Nevertheless, the degree of decline has varied from country to
country.
• In China and Singapore, as an example the fall has been
spectacular, with rates more than halved.
• Although the overall trend of these CBR has been down ward,
there remain today considerable differences in their general
level
 THE MAJOR DETERIMINANTS OF FERTILITY

The reproductive behavior of a population results from a complex of

biological, social and economic factors
 Biological Determinants of Fertility
• The number of physical factors including age and health may affect
fecundity.
 Age
• In most societies reproduction is accomplished mainly by young adults.
• In calculating fertility rates, the female reproductive years are generally
assumed to be ages 15 – 49.
• Puberty usually marks the onset of reproductive capacity.
• While female fecund period ends with menopause
 Health
• A person’s health may affect fecundity for varying periods of time.
• In general, good health and fecundity go together.
• A variety of diseases may further impair fecundity either temporarily or
permanently.
 Social Determinants of Fertility

• These include: marriage patterns, contraceptive practices, and

abortions.
• Marriage
 The age at first marriage:. In non-contraceptive populations,
especially, the age at which females marry is an important
determinant of fertility.
• Typically, in the developing countries today, the average age at
marriage is fairly low, especially in comparison with the pattern in
most of the developed countries.
• In some nations, such as Panama, Honduras, and Bolivia, the legal
marriage age is twelve for females and fourteen for males.
 % of Married population: A high rate of celibacy is unusual in
most populations, though there are a few exceptions, such as
Ireland.
 Marriage patterns: is the amount of time spent between marriages
after a divorce, separation, or death of a spouse.
 Degree of Contraception use
• A major determinant of fertility today is the degree to which

contraception is practiced.

• Contraceptive practice is most common in the industrialized nations;

however, with the increasing influence of family planning programs in

many countries, more and more people are beginning to control their
fertility.

• Contraceptives may be classified into the following groups those that:

– prevent the entry of sperm,

– avoid or suppress ovulation, and

– prevent implantation
 Economic Determinants of Fertility

• The essence of an economic theory of fertility is that a couple’s

decision to produce, or not to produce, a child is based on the costs
and benefits of the child, as perceived by the couple.
• Such a theory, then, begins with a consideration of the costs and
benefits of children.
• The Value of Children
• Children may have both economic and non-economic values.
• The non-economic values are psychological in nature and include the
psychic satisfactions that parents derive from having and rearing
children.
• Among these non-economic values are the following: adult status and
social identity; expansion of the self; morality; primary group ties;
stimulation, novelty, and fun; creativity and accomplishment; power
and influence; and social comparison and competition.
• Two types of economic benefits of children are the following:
• children as a source of financial security in old ages and in
emergencies, and the value of children as productive agents.
 The Cost of Children

• Costs may be considered as the disadvantages of children.

• Among the terms used for the costs of children are dissatisfaction, disadvantages,
disvalues, penalties and negative general values. These costs may be both
economic and non-economic.
• Among the non-economic costs are included the emotional and psychological
problems that children impose on parents.
• Any parent is aware that raising children causes anxieties about such matters as
the child’s health and behavior.
• Among the economic costs are:
 (1) direct maintenance costs and
 (2) opportunity costs.
Direct maintenance costs are actual monetary outlays required for the support of
children.
These costs include food, clothing, housing, educational expenses, and medical
expenses.
Opportunity costs measure opportunities that parents must sacrifice to have and
raise children.
 Fertility Differentials

• Fertility differentials include rural-urban, income, educational differentials.

• Rural- Urban Differentials
• Fertility tends to be related to the level of urbanization when
viewed at the world scale.
• Generally speaking, fertility tends to be higher in rural areas and
lowest among urban dwellers.
• This is mainly because the urban dwellers have greater access to
family planning and other basic social services.
• Income Differentials
• Previously we observed that fertility tended to be levels of
economic development.
• In general, fertility tends to be highest for the lowest income
groups and to decrease with increasing income levels, though
occasionally it will rise again at very high income levels.
• Part of the explanation for this rise is that those at high income
levels can afford more of everything, including children.
 Educational Differentials

• Like income, education tends to be negatively related to

fertility.
• Educated people have more awareness about
contraceptive use
• However, beyond the knowledge of contraceptives,
education may motivate couples to limit family size
because of their greater awareness of the costs and
benefits of children.
• Also, for more educated females the opportunity costs of
having and rearing children are likely to be higher than
for their less educated counterparts.
• Education could change the attitude of parents not to have
a large family and elongate the age at marriage.
 Mortality
 Concept and its measure
• Mortality, the other half of natural change component, is
simply the occurrence of death.
• Mortality has been defined as the permanent disappearance of
all evidence of life at any time after birth has taken place.
• Therefore, for the purpose of mortality, all deaths before
births are to be excluded.
• Measures of Mortality
• Measures of mortality include
 crude death rate,
 age specific death rate,
 infant mortality rate,
 maternal mortality
 a/ Crude Death Rate (CDR)

• is the most widely used measure of mortality.

• CDR are merely the number of deaths per 1000 inhabitants
• It is the number of deaths per 1000 people recorded during the course of a
year.
• The rate is crude because the total population is included, whereas the
probability of dying in a particular time period is not equal for every one.
• It is expressed as under

b/Age Specific Death Rate

The probability of dying in a given time interval is closely related to age.
The age specific death rate, then, takes into consideration.
Age Specific Death Rate refers to the number of deaths of age group i in a
given year per 1000 people of that age group i.
• Where Di = number of deaths of people in the age group I,
usually either a one- or five year age group, and Pi = midyear
population in age group i
• Generally, death rates are lowest for adolescents and young
adults.
• Accordingly, the age specific death rate of age group 15 – 19
for example, is calculated as under:

Infant Mortality Rate (IMR)

This refers to the number of deaths under age 1 per 1000 live
births in the course of the year. Mathematically it can be expresses
as follow
• Infant mortality is unevenly distributed throughout the first year of life,
with most infant deaths occurring in the first six months.
• In areas where infant mortality is low, high proportions of infant deaths
occur within the first 28 days of life.
• These early infant deaths often result from congenital defects or injuries at
birth, deaths that modern medicine may be able to do little to stop.
• Neonatal Mortality Rate
• The neonatal mortality rate reflects the influence of congenital and birth
related problems on infant mortality and is calculated as:

Where Dj = number of deaths to infants between birth and

28 days of age in a given year, and Bl = number of births
in that year
 Maternal Mortality Rate

• It refers to the women dying due to causes related with

pregnancy, delivery and other maternity reasons.
• It is generally expressed in terms of the number of deaths due
to maternity causes per 100,000 live births.

• MMR = Dm/ Bl x 100,000

• Where, Dm = Death of mothers due to maternity and

• Bl = Total live births

 The Life Table

• A life table is a tabular display of life expectancy and the

probability of dying at each age for a given population, according
to the age specific death rates prevailing at that time.
• The life table gives an organized, complete picture of a
population’s mortality.
• The life table is based on age specific mortality rate observed for a
population for a particular year or other period of time.
• It is based on observed mortality, usually by both age and sex, and
provide us with information on life expectancy and survivorship.
 With a current life table one can determine such factors as the:

 probability of dying within one year of persons at each age;

 average number of years a newborn infant can expect to live;
 average number of years of life remaining to a person of any
age;
 probability of surviving from any given age to any other given
age;
 probability of surviving for any given number of years, for
persons at any age;
 the number of persons at a particular age, above or below a
particular age or between two ages under conditions of a
stationary population.
 World Patterns of Mortality

• Countries with higher rates of death rate are mainly in Southern Asia,
Africa and Parts of Latin America.
• Many of the countries in these regions owe their high mortality to:
•  very high mortality rates ( over 100 per 1000)
•  low expectation of life (under 50 years) resulting from low
standards of living, hygiene and medical care.
• Below global average are found in the European Region and USSR.
 Mortality Trends
• There are two phases of mortality decline.
 The first marked fall in mortality occurred during the Industrial Revolution
of the 18th and 19th centuries and was confined to the advanced countries
 Major contributors to that decline were the advances of medical science,
better housing and sanitation, improved food and water supplies.
• A second marked fall has occurred during 2nd half of 20th century, mainly
experienced n developing countries.
• this was due to economic development, aid from advanced economies,
and effective medical campaigns against infectious diseases
 Determinants of Mortality

• The determinants of mortality are classified into demographic, social and

economic factors.
 Demographic factors
 Age: Age structure of a population has been mentioned as the most
prominent demographic factor governing the incidence of mortality.
 Under normal circumstance the probability of dying is relatively higher for
infants under age one, is very low for adolescents and young adults, and then
begins to rise in the older ages.
 Sex: In almost all countries of the world, the risk of death appears to be
greater for males at all ages.
• Even before birth males are more likely to die than females.
 Social Determinants
 Infanticide: Many societies in the past adopted infanticide as a common
measure of arresting their number.
 The availability of medical facilities
 General conditions of nutrition, housing and sanitation.
 Educational status: mortality rates are also found to be inversely correlated
with literacy standards
 Economic Determinants

o Income: the income can determine individuals access medical

facilities.
o Type of economy: It may be said that the industrial societies, due
to over-crowding, environmental pollution, hazards of accidents
suffer from high death rates in comparison to the agricultural
societies
• Causes of Death
• There are two major causes of death, namely those which are:
• Degenerative /endogenetic – associated with ageing and gradual
exhaustion of the body.
• Examples include cancer, senility and circulatory disorder.
• Environmental/exogenetic- due to infectious diseases, cataclysms,
accidents, social conditions, etc.
 3.3 Migration

• Definition of Concepts: Mobility, Circulation and Migration

 Mobility: In population geography, mobility is the umbrella term used
to embrace all population movements, that is both migration and
circulation.
 Circulation is a great variety of movements usually short term,
repetitive and cyclical in character, but all having in common the lack
of permanent change of residence’.
• E.g Shopping, commuting, transhumance, pastoral nomadism and
shifting cultivation.
• A distinction has also been made between commuting and
transhumance.
• While commuting refers to the movement of individual from place
residence to the place of work and back either daily or weekly,
• transhumance refers to the seasonal movement of people up and
down the hills along with their herds.
 Migration. It is a form of geographical mobility between one geographic
unit and another involving a change of residence
• Thus, embedded within such a condition of the term migration would be;
o the movement for some physical distance
o change in the normal place of residence
 A migrant is a person, who makes a permanent change in residence.
 Migrants who cross international boundaries are referred to as emigrants
in the country of origin and immigrants in the country of destination
 Difference of Migration from fertility and mortality
 migration is not a biological event, it does not have a uniform process.
 There is no upper limit to migration, but there is an upper limit to the
number of children a woman can have.
 Fertility and mortality affects only one area but migration affects both
areas
 Unlike births and deaths, migration is not universal
 migration can be repeated and even reversed.
 Measures of Migration

• Basic Concepts
 Gross Migration: The total sum of all the people who enter and
leave an area
• Thus, it measures the total volume of population turnover in a
community.
 Net migration: The difference between the arrivals and departures
• When more people leave an area than move into that area, net
migration is said to be negative.
• Positive net migration, on the other hand, occurs when more people
enter than leave an area.
 Out-Migration and In-Migration
• Out-migration: Leaving the place of origin
• In-migration : arriving at the place of destination
 Areas of Origin and Destination
• Area of origin: is the place from which a migrant leaves, whereas
the area of destination is the place at which the migrant arrives.
 Migration Rates

• The relative frequency of migration is called the migration rate.

• It is the number of migratory events divided by the population exposed to

the chance of migrating.
• Out-migration rate=O/P x k
• In-migration rate= I/P x k
• Net-migration rate= I – O /P x k
• Gross- migration rate=I + O/P x k
• Where O is the number of out-migrants from an area
• I is the number of in-migrants to an area

• P is the average or mid-interval population of an area

• K is a constant, usually 100 or 1000.

 Reasons for Migration

• People move for a variety of reasons and most people will migrate at least
once during their life time
• The Push - Pull Model
• Whatever the reasons and no matter the timing in life cycle, most
migrations are the outcome of two sets of forces.
• Push forces work in the migrant’s home area. These include:
 impact of natural disasters ( drought, floods, famine)
 low wages,
 persecution and civil war.
• The pull forces are those which attract the migrant to a particular
destination. These include:
 Good social and welfare services,
 a pleasant environment and
 political freedom are typical pull factors.
Broadly speaking, push and pull factors fall into four categories:
 Laws of migration

• Ravenstein’s Law of Migration

1. Migration and Distance.
Most migrants travel short distances and with increasing distance the number of
migrants decreases.
In short, migration is a distance- decay phenomenon.
2. Streams and Counter-streams.
Each main current of migration produces a compensating counter current.
3. Rural- Urban Differential.
The natives of the town are less migratory than counterparts in the country side.
4. Preponderance of females.
Females are more migratory than males. Among the short distance migrants,
females appear to predominate.
5. Technology and Migration.
The magnitude of migration increases with the advancement of technology.
6. Motives behind migration.
Economic motives have a primary importance among the various factors
governing the factors the magnitude of migration.
 Zipf’s Gravity Model

This model postulates that people are drawn towards the place of destination
by gravitational force, which reduces with distance.

In other words, the volume of migration at a particular place of destination

from a particular place of origin is directly proportional to the product of the
two populations and inversely proportional to the distance between them. So
• V = Po *Pd/D
• Where V = Volume of migration
• Po = Population at place of origin
• Pd = Population at place of destination
• Although this model is simple, it does not take into account the
characteristics of both the place of origin and destination, which could help
to explain both the volume and the direction of migration.
 Lee’s Theory

• His theory is the general form of Ravenstein’s law of migration.

• Lee describes factors, which attract individuals towards a particular place
as ‘pluses’ or pull factors, and those which drive them away as ‘minuses’
or push factors.
• Factors that are more or less evenly distributed, in other words they
counter balance each other, he described as zero factors.
• Broadly Lee classified the factors into four groups as follows:
 Factors associated with the area of origin
 Factors associated with the area of destination
 Intervening obstacles and
 Personal factors.
• The circles representing the places of origin and destination have
pluses, zeros, and minuses.
• The pluses indicate elements to which potential migrants respond
favorably, whereas the minuses are elements to which they react
negatively.
• Zeros stand for elements to which potential migrants are
indifferent.
• A potential migrant adds up the pluses and minuses for both the
origin and one or more possible destinations and then whether the
balance of pluses and minuses favors moving or staying.
• Lee’s intervening obstacles: These include such things as the
actual cost of making the move, which is obviously related to
distance, and psychic costs, such as the necessity of breaking ties
with family, friends, and community, especially when long
distances are involved.
• Furthermore, many personal factors may also influence a
migration decision; for example, health, age, marital status, and
number of children.
• Who Migrates ?
• process of migration is inherently selective that:
 most migrants are adult and families rarely migrate out of the country of
birth.
 Women are more migratory than men within their country of birth.
 Town dwellers are less migratory than countryside dwellers.
 Migration Selectivity
• A stage in life that is highly associated with migration is that of reaching
maturity.
• At this age, the demand for education tends to peak.
• So also does the process of finding a job or a career, and getting
married.
• Each of these processes invariably tends to be associated with
migration.
• Thus, in virtually every human society young adults are far more likely
to migrate than people at any other age.
• Age, therefore, is an important determinant of migration because it is
related to life-cycle changes that affect most humans in most societies.
 Consequences of Migration

• It has widely been recognized that migration affects the area of out
migration, the area of in-migration and the migrants themselves.
• Thus, the consequences of migration are no less significant than the causes
of migration.
• With the movement of people from one area to another all the demographic
attributes like numbers, density, growth, fertility, mortality, age, sex
literacy etc experience a quantitative change in their numerical
expressions.
• Example: An increase in the density of population, through migration, may
either the region’s burden upon its resources or may enhance the capacity
to exploit its resource potential.
• The migrants, on the other hand, also face serious adaptation problems:
• Example:
• the rural migrants moving to the new industrial towns suffer from lack of
pure air and open space; noxious fumes, dust, etc
• they also have to adapt to the new dietary habits and timings of food.
• Migration has both individual as well as group consequences
 Demographic Consequences
• The donor area typically loses people from its young adult
population who are then added to the host area. Moreover, because it
is at those ages that the bulk of reproduction occurs, the host area
has its level of natural increase raised at the expense of the donor
area.
 Socio-economic Consequences
• due to migration the extended kinship relations are weakened,
although not destroyed.
• Equally, local economic, political, and educational institutions have
to adjust shifts in the number of people serviced by each.
• Thus the patterns of migration influence social change in a society.
• migration may induce anxiety and stress as a result of inevitable changes
and adjustments that have to be negotiated.
 CHAPTER FOUR
POPULATION COMPOSITION

• Population composition- refers to those aspects of population which may

be measured: age sex, marital status, size and composition of families and
households, economic activities, nationality, language and religion.
• Age - Sex Composition
• Of all the different aspects of population structure, age and sex are
probably the two most important.
• The relationship between them and their significance for population
structure is clearly shown in what is known as age- sex pyramid
(population pyramid)
• The population pyramid is a graphic representation of a population’s age
and sex composition.
• The pyramid shows the proportion of males and females at 5 years age
intervals.
 Types of population pyramids
1. Expansive type with large numbers of people in the younger ages. Today
this is representative of many of the high-birth rate countries of the developing
world. In this case, each succeeding cohort is larger than the one before it.
2. Constrictive type with a smaller number of people in the younger- age
cohorts than the older-age cohorts. This situation usually results from a recent
drop in prevailing birth rates.
3. Stationary type with age cohort sizes that are nearly equal until the old age
die-off takes its toll.
Under conditions of low death rates this condition evolves when replacement-
level fertility occurs
• A Cohort is a group of people sharing a common temporal demographic
experience who are observed through time.
• The pyramid for Kenya, with its broad base and narrow top, is a fairly a
typical of many African countries (triangular)
• The population pyramid for more economically developed countries
tending to show less variation between different age groups and thus being
more rectangular than triangular in shape.
 Age structure

There are three reasons why knowledge of the age distribution of a

population is basic
 Age is one of the most fundamental of one’s own personal
characteristics
 Groups are determinants of primary social and economic importance in
any society.
 The qualified student of population must posses the technical skills
needed to bring out the significant features of the age composition of a
population with which he/she is concerned.
Many factors determine the age structure of a population of a national
population, but the primary variable is the birth rate.
A population with a high birth rate will have a large proportion of young
people, whereas a population with a low birth rate will have a smaller
proportion of young people.
Migration is age selective.
That is, almost all types of migrations involve a large proportion of young
people.
• The three fundamental distinctions of age structure include:
young, adult and elderly.
•  Young (< 15 years)
•  Adult (15 – 65 years)
•  Elderly (> 65 years)
• The two groups (young and elderly) tend to be economically
inactive and are therefore, dependent on working adults
 Sex Structure

• sex composition of a population is often expressed in terms of sex ratio.

• Sex ratio= male population /female population x 100
• . A sex ratio of 100 indicates that there are equal numbers of males and
females in a population; a ratio above 100 indicates there are more males
than females; and a ratio below 100 indicates there are more females than
males.
• The basic factors that determine the sex ratio are:-
 (1) death rate difference between the sexes,
 (2) net migration rate differences between the sexes, and
 (3) the sex ratio of the newborn infants
• Examining sex ratios and correlating them with other demographic factors
such as births, deaths, and migration reveal some basic facts:
• The sex ratio at birth is relatively high (105) for most countries of the
world;
• In general, females have lower death rates than males at all ages;
• Females outnumber males in migration from rural to urban areas and in
short distance migrations;
• Males outnumber females in long distance moves.
 Sex Ratio: Global Pattern

• The Global average sex ratio for the year 1980 was 99.3.
• This implies that the number of females in the world as a
whole marginally exceeded the number of males.
• There were 99.3 males for every 100 females at the specified
year.
• Europe was the continent with the lowest sex ratio of 95, Asia
being the one highest value 104 males per 100 females.
• Broadly speaking, the males are the minority in Europe than
any other countries due to large losses of males in World War
II.
 Marital Status

• The marital status of a population refers to the proportions

of single, married, widowed, divorced persons.
• Both age structure and sex-ratio directly influence these
proportions, but so do social institutions and economic
conditions.
• Therefore, the marital status of a population is never
constant.
 Single Population
 The single population may be divided into three:
 Persons below the legal age of marriage
 Unmarried adults desiring marriage at sometime or other
 Celibates vowed to a single life (a person unmarried for
religious promise)
 Married Population

• Marriage is a legal fact, not a biological one like birth and

death, as its legality may be established by civil, religious or
other means.
• There are three forms of marriage:
 Monogamy – the custom/practice of having one spouse
 Polygyny - the custom/practice of having more than one wife
 Polyandry - the custom/practice of having more than one
husband at the same time
• Polygyny and polyandry are the two separate forms of
polygamy (the custom/practice of having more than one
spouse), compound marriage.
• Monogamy is the most wide spread form of marriage, where
as polyandry, is a rare form of marriage.
• Widowhood
• Widows are more common than widowers, because men
marry later, have a higher mortality and re-marry often than
women.
• Example: In Great Britain widows are about four times
as many as widowers.
• Divorce
• As social and economic ties of the family may become
weakened in the modern societies; affection, children and
religion come to be the only remaining bonds for the
continuity of marriage.
• In some Moslem countries divorce is a commonplace and
easily acquired, while in many Roman Catholic Churches,
the institutions of divorce is ignored.
• In general, divorce rates are higher in towns than rural areas.
 Classification of households

• The households may broadly be classified into two:

 private household, and
 institutional (non-private) households
• A private household should be considered as ‘person who
jointly occupy the whole or parts of a housing unit, usually
share the principal meals and have common provisions for
basic living needs.
• Obviously, private households may then be classified into:
 (a) non-family household – which may be one person or multi-
persons/ related or unrelated
 (b) one family household; and
 (c) multi-family households
• Institutional households may include group of persons living
in schools, hospitals, military installations and other
 Economic Composition

• Active Population
• The economically active population or labor force may variously be
defined as the:
• Population of working population: broadly speaking, the adult
population.
• Working population: including men and women who are normally
employed, but who may be temporarily unemployed.
• Employed population: that actually engaged in productive
employment at a given time.
• According to the UN, the working population may include:
• Unpaid family workers,
• Civilians as well as members of the armed forces
• Employed and unemployed persons, including those seeking work
for the first time
• Persons engaged event part-time in economic activities
• Domestic servants
• The inactive population therefore incorporated not only
children below working age and retired persons, but also
students, housewives, inmates of institutions, etc
• Employed, Unemployed, and Underemployment
 Employed active population consists of all persons who are at
work during the reference period of the consensus including
those who are temporarily absent from work due to illness,
industrial dispute, etc
 Unemployed active population consists of those who were not
at work during the reference period of the census but are
seeking some work.
 Underemployment refers to the difference between the amount
of work performed by persons in employment and the amount
of work they normally be able to and willing to perform
 Industrial Composition

• The industrial classification of the active population refers to

the branches of activity, and it is based on the type of
establishment, product made or service rendered.
• The list is too long but the standard industrial classification of
the UN Statistical Commission.
 Agricultural, Forestry, Hunting and Fishing
 Mining and quarrying
 Manufacturing industries
 Construction
 Electricity, gas, water and sanitary services
 Commerce
 Transport, storage and communication
 Services
 Not classified elsewhere
 CHAPTER FIVE:POPULATION THEORIES
A HISTORICAL SURVEY

• Ancient and medieval writings on population

• The study of the numerical size, growth and characteristics of human population
has a fairly long history.
• Ancient Chinese, Greek and Arab philosophers such as Confucius, Plato, Aristotle
and Khaldoun concerned themselves with the various population issues of their
days.
• The thesis that excessive population growth may reduce output per worker, depress
levels of living for the masses and create trouble is of great antiquity.
• It appears in the works of Confucius and his school, as well as in the works of other
ancient Chinese philosophers.
• Postulating an ideal proportion between land and population, they held the
government primarily responsible for maintaining such a proportion by moving
people from over-populated to under-populated areas.
• They observed that mortality increases when food supply is insufficient, that
premature marriage makes for high infant mortality rates, that war checks
population growth and that costly marriage ceremonies reduce marriage rates
• The writers of early Greece were more concerned with the
formulation of policies and rules for population than theories
about it.
• Plato, Aristotle and other Greek writers discussed the question of
optimum of population with respect to the Greek city state and the
ideal conditions for the full development of human’s potential.
• The thought was that population should be self-sufficient, and
thus posses enough territory to supply its needs but not be so large
as to make institutional government impossible.
• The Romans viewed population questions in the perspective of a
great empire rather than a small city state and the advantages for
military purposes and this is reflected, for example, in the laws of
Augustus.
• Roman writers paid less attention to population than the Greeks
• and having children and discriminating financially against those
not married, aimed at raising the marriage and birth rates.
• The Hebrew sacred books also placed much emphasis on
procreation and multiplication
• Early and medieval Christian writers considered population questions
almost entirely from a moral and ethical standpoint, but again favored
population growth.
• On one hand, they condemned polygamy, divorce, abortion, infanticide and
child exposure; on the other hand, they glorified virginity and continence
and frowned upon second marriage.
• The views of Moslem authors on population resemble those of the Hebrew
and Christian authors
• The Malthusian Theory of Population
Malthus published the first edition of his essay on principles of population in
1798
He argued that human population tended to increase at a geometric rate while
the food supply needed to sustain them in arithmetic rate.
The outlook is pessimistic; it suggests that population grows faster than food
supply.
To balance the two, checks would be imposed on the growing population and
these were resolvable into vice, misery and moral restraint.
The only moral restraint recognized by Malthus was the postponement of
marriage with no extra marital sex during the postponed period.
Moral restraint was to be the savior of mankind.
• The checks on population growth noted by Malthus were described as
preventive and positive checks, as they are now called factors affecting fertility
and mortality, respectively.

• Positive checks – were identified as causes which shorten human life.

Examples are disease, epidemics, famine, plague etc (all forms of misery),
wars, excess of all kinds.

• Preventive Checks – were the kind reduced fertility and - apart from moral
restraint - included promiscuity, homo sexuality, adultery, abortion and birth
control (all vices).

• Finally, it should be noted that Malthus’ great hope, “moral restraint” or

delayed marriage, did not encompasses abstinence or any birth control after
marriage,

• The assumptions of the ability of population to outgrow the food supply are
• Malthusian: A point of view that emphasizes the importance of
food, or other resource limitations as controls on population growth.
• Neo-Malthusian: a point of view that emphasizes the immediacy of
a need for strong population growth control measures before world
resource limitations are reached.
• Malthusian Dilemma: The predicament that results from the belief
that assistance to the poor stimulates fertility and thereby causes
more poverty.
• There were several demographic determinants which Malthus did not
anticipate:
• Improvements in transport greatly increase the mobility of people and
therefore, the significance of migration as a mechanism for balancing
population and food supply.
• Also unforeseen were the widespread adoption of birth control and the
decline in fertility that seem to be related to change social attitude than to
the direct control of food shortage.
• It is interesting to note that Malthus was strongly opposed to birth control
within marriage and never suggested that married people should restrict the
number of their children
 Boserup’s Hypothesis

• An alternative view to that of Malthus has been developed by Boserup, a

Danish Economist.
• She asserted that it is more realistic to suggest that population growth is a
major factor in determining the nature of agricultural development than it
is controlled by them.
• Her views have sometimes been summarized in the phrase’ Necessity is
the Mother of invention’ because she argued that in many pre-industrial
societies population growth served as the main stimulus to change
agricultural techniques and so increase food production
 Demographic Transition Theory

• Basically the term transition here refers to the change from high to low
rates of fertility and mortality.
• Demographic transition: - is an account, but not a complete explanation,
of changing rates of fertility, mortality and natural increase.
• These changes are held to occur as a nation progresses from rural, agrarian,
and illiterate state to a state to a predominantly urban, industrial, literate
one.
• Four stages may be recognized:

•
• Stage 1: High Stationery Stage
• Birth and death rates are high and the death rate fluctuates
over time.
• High birth rates (> 35/1000) are due to lack of family
planning, low status of women and high infant mortality,
children add to the family income through child labor,
encourage large families.
• High death rates (> 22/1000) due to infectious diseases, such
as typhoid and cholera, poor nutrition and even famine and
war.
• Stage 2: Early Expanding Stage
• Fertility remains high, but improved conditions means falling
death rates. Population therefore increases.
• Birth rate remains high.
• Death rate begins to fall due to improved medicines, nutrition,
sanitation and water supply
• Stage 3: Late Expanding Stage
• Death rates are low but fertility is declining but population is
still increasing.
• Death rate continues to fall due to greater improvements in
health, sanitation and nutrition; care for elderly introduced.
• Birth rate starts to fall as children are prevented from working
and so become a drain on families, wealth, infant death has
been reduced, family planning techniques become more
widely available and acceptable, status of women rises and the
marriage age increase.
• Stage 4: Low Stationery Stage
• Birth and death rates are low and the birth rate fluctuates.
• Death rates remains low. Birth rate level off; through family
planning.
 The Demographic Transition Model

• The demographic transition model shows:-

 what might happen to the birth rate, death rate and natural
increase, with time.
 That the main determinants of the type of population growth is
the nature of the balance between the rates of fertility and
mortality.

 The model has also been used as a predictive tool to explain

the change in developing world.

 Demographic Situation in Less Developed countries

• The demographic situation prevailing in less developed

realm, broadly speaking, consists of: -
– wide variety in densities
– high levels of fertility and sharply declining mortality
– high and accelerating population growth
– low level of health and inadequate diet
– wide spread poverty and meager average per capita
productivity
– mass illiteracy
– low age at marriage and high dependency ratio
– more than half of the male labor force still in agriculture
– low proportion of industrial population
– scarcity of capacity for infrastructure expansion
– widespread unemployment and low level of urbanization
– highly immobile population
 Demographic Situation in More Developed countries

 The demographic situation prevailing in more developed realm, broadly

speaking, consists of: -
 low fertility rates, hence the share of developed countries in
the world’s population is gradually declining
 stagnation or slow growth in their populations.
 the age at marriage, the incidence of illegitimate children, the
proportion of unmarried couples living together and the divorce
rates are ever increasing.
 the problem of immigration (large scale legal/illegal
immigration)
 low sex ratio, slow growth of population and ageing at the
apex
 higher male mortality rates and associated deficiency of males
 high degree of urban congestion