Inferential
Statistics
Descriptive & Inferential Statistics
Descriptive Inferential Statistics
Statistics • Generalize from
Organize samples to
• Summariz pops
• Hypothesis
e
testing
• Simplify • Relationships
• Presentation of among variables
data
Describing data Make predictions
Inferential
Statistics
• Inferential statistics are used to draw
conclusions about a population by
examining the sample
POPULATION
Sample
Inferential Statistics
Sample
Sample
Sample
Population
Sample
Draw inferences about the
larger group
data
Are our inferences valid?…Best we can do is to calculate probabi lity
about inferences
Inferential
Statistics
• Accuracy of depends
inference on sample
representativeness of from
population
• random selection
• equal chance for anyone to be
selected makes sample more
representative
Inferential
Statistics
• Inferential statistics
help researchers
test hypotheses and answer research
questions, and derive meaning from the
results
Sampling Error: variability among
samples due to chance vs population
Or true differences? Are just due to
sampling error?
Probability…..
Error…misleading…not a mistake
Inferential
Statistics
• Researchers set the significance level
for each statistical test they conduct
Alternative and Null
Hypotheses
• If the .05 level is achieved (p is equal to or
less than .05), then a researcher rejects
the H0 and accepts the H1
• If the the .05 significance level is not
achieved, then the H0 is retained
Degrees of
Freedom
• Degrees of freedom (df) are the way in
which the scientific tradition accounts
for variation due to error
• it specifies how many values vary within a
statistical test
• scientists recognize that collecting data can
never be error-free
• each piece of data collected can vary, or carry
error that we cannot account for
• by including df in statistical computations,
scientists help account for this error
Inferential Statistics: 5
Steps
• To determine if SAMPLE means come from same
population, use 5 steps with inferential statistics
1. State Hypothesis
• Ho: no difference between 2 means;
any difference found is due to sampling
error
• any significant difference found is not a TRUE
difference, but CHANCE due to sampling
error
• results stated in terms of probability
that Ho is false
• findings are stronger if can reject Ho
• therefore, need to specify Ho and H1
Steps in Inferential
Statistics
2. Level of Significance
• Probability that sample means are different
enough to reject Ho (.05 or .01)
• level of probability or level of
confidence
Steps in Inferential
Statistics
3. Computing Calculated Value
• Use statistical test to derive some
calculated value (e.g., t value or F value)
4. Obtain Critical Value
• a criterion used based on df and alpha
level (.05 or .01) is compared to the
calculated value to determine if findings
are significant and therefore reject Ho
Steps in Inferential
Statistics
5. Reject or Fail to Reject H
o
• CALCULATED value is compared to the
CRITICAL value to determine if the
difference is significant enough to reject
Ho at the predetermined level of
significance
• If CRITICAL value > CALCULATED
value --> fail to reject Ho
• If CRITICAL value < CALCULATED
value --> reject Ho
• If reject Ho, only supports H1; it does
not prove H1
Testing
Hypothesis
• If reject H and conclude groups are really
o
different, it doesn’t mean they’re
different for the reason you hypothesized
• may be other reason
• Since Ho testing is based on sample means,
not population means, there is a
possibility of making an error or wrong
decision in rejecting or failing to reject
Ho
• Type I error
• Type II error
Testing
Hypothesis
• Type I error -- rejecting H when it was true (it
o
should have been accepted)
• equal to alpha
• if = .05, then there’s a 5% chance of
Type I error
• Type II error -- accepting Ho when it
should have been rejected
• If increase , you will decrease the
chance of Type II error
Inferential Statistics: uses sample data
to evaluate the credibility of a hypothesis
about a population
NULL Hypothesis:
NULL (nullus - latin): “not any” no
differences between means
H0 : m1 = m2
Always testing the null hypothesis “H- Naught”
Inferential statistics: uses sample data to
evaluate the credibility of a hypothesis
about a population
Hypothesis: Scientific or alternative
hypothesis
Predicts that there are differences
between the groups
H1 : m1 = m2
Hypothesis
A statement about what findings are expected
null hypothesis
"the two groups will not differ“
alternative hypothesis
"group A will do better than group B"
"group A and B will not perform the same"
Inferential Statistics
When making comparisons
btw 2 sample means there are 2
possibilities
Null hypothesis is false
Null hypothesis is true
Reject the Null hypothesis
Not reject the Null Hypothesis
Possible Outcomes in
Hypothesis Testing (Decision)
Null is True Null is False
Correct
Accept Decision Error
Type II Error
Correct
Reject Error Decision
Type I Error
Type I Error: Rejecting a True Hypothesis
Type II Error: Accepting a False Hypothesis
Hypothesis Testing - Decision
Decision Right or Wrong?
But we can know the probability of being right
or wrong
Can specify and control the probability of
making TYPE I of TYPE II Error
Try to keep it small…
ALPHA
the probability of making a type I error depends on the
criterion you use to accept or reject the null hypothesis
= significance level (smaller you make alpha, the less
likely you are to commit error) 0.05 (5 chances in 100
that the difference observed was really due to sampling
error – 5% of the time a type I error will occur)
Possible Outcomes in
Hypothesis Testing
Null is True Null is False
Alpha ( Accept
Correct
Decision
Error
Type II Error
Difference observed is really Reject Error Correct
Decision
just sampling error Type I Error
The prob. of type one error
When we do statistical analysis… if alpha
(p value- significance level) greater than
0.05
WE ACCEPT THE NULL HYPOTHESIS
is equal to or less that 0.05 we
REJECT THE NULL (difference btw means)
Two Tail
2.5% 2.5%
5% region of rejection of null hypothesis
Non directional
One Tail
5%
5% region of rejection of null hypothesis
Directional
BETA
Probability of making type II error occurs when we fail
to reject the Null when we should have
Possible Outcomes in
Hypothesis Testing
Null is True Null is False
Beta ( Accept
Correct
Decision
Error
Type II Error
Difference observed is real Reject Error Correct
Decision
Failed to reject the Null Type I Error
POWER: ability to reduce type II error
POWER: ability to reduce type II error
(1-Beta) – Power Analysis
The power to find an effect if an effect is present
1. Increase our n
2. Decrease variability
3. More precise measurements
Effect Size: measure of the size of the difference
between means attributed to the treatment
Inferential statistics
Significance testing:
Practical vs statistical significance
Inferential statistics
Used for Testing for Mean Differences
T-test: when experiments include only 2 groups
a. Independent
b. Correlated
i. Within-subjects
ii. Matched
Based on the t statistic (critical values) based on
df & alpha level
Inferential statistics
Used for Testing for Mean Differences
Analysis of Variance (ANOVA): used when
comparing more than 2 groups
1. Between Subjects
2. Within Subjects – repeated measures
Based on the f statistic (critical values) based on
df & alpha level
More than one IV = factorial (iv=factors)
Only one IV=one-way anova
Inferential statistics
Meta-Analysis:
Allows for statistical averaging of results
From independent studies of the same
phenomenon
Identifying the Appropriate
Statistical Test of
Difference
One-way chi-square
One variable
Two variables
(1 IV with 2 levels; 1 DV) t-test
Two variables
(1 IV with 2+ levels; 1 DV) ANOVA
Three or more variables ANOVA
