Elections & Voting Behavior

Legitimacy

• Elections are accepted as a free

and fair method of selecting
political leaders
• Legitimacy is high in the United
States
 Three types of elections:

– primary elections

– general elections

– Select options on specific policies

 Referendum

–State voters approve or disapprove

proposed legislation or
constitutional amendment
 Initiative petition
–Voters in some states can propose
changes in the state constitution
–Typically requires gaining
signatures
–Lawmaking from the ground up
 Precinct
• A precinct is a voting district.
 Polling Place
• A polling place is where the voters who live
in a precinct go to vote. 
• It is located in or near each precinct.  Polling
places are supposed to be located
conveniently for voters.
 Voter Registration:
– A system adopted by the states that
requires voters to register well in
advance of the election day.
– Registration procedures differ from
state to state.
– Tends to discourage voting
 Motor Voter Act
•  

• Requires states to permit people

to register to vote at the same
time they apply for their driver’s
license
 Absentee Ballot 

• a vote cast by someone who is

unable or unwilling to attend
the official polling station on
election day
 Ballot
• Used to record choices made by voters
• History of the ballot
– Oral
• It was considered “manly” to speak out your vote
without fear of reprisal.
– Paper ballots-mid 1800s, provide your own
– Party ballot
– Australian ballot reform-1880s
 Australian Ballot
• official ballot
• public expense
• all voters receive same ballot
• lists all candidates
• distributed at polling place
• secret
 Electronic Voting
• Possibilities for elderly and disabled
• Quick and Simple

• Malfunctions
• Hacking
 Suffrage
• The right to vote
• Suffrage has broadened, and turnout
has decreased.
–Basically, more people can vote,
but they don’t….
 Deciding Whether to Vote
– U.S. typically has low voter turnouts.
– Some argue it is a rational choice to not vote.
– Political Efficacy: The belief that one’s political
participation really matters.
– Civic Duty: The belief that in order to support
democratic government, a citizen should always
vote.
• Mandate Theory of Elections
– The idea that the winning candidate has a
mandate from the people to carry out his or her
platforms and politics.
– Politicians like the theory better than political
scientists do.
• Party Identification
– People generally vote for a party they agree with.
– Rise of candidate-centered politics has changed
this view.
– Now many voters are individualistic.
– Characteristics of each candidate have become
more important than party.
• Candidate Evaluations: How Americans See
the Candidates
– Candidates want a good visual image.
– Most important dimensions are integrity,
reliability, and competence.
– Personality still plays a role.
• Policy Voting
– Basing your vote choice on issue preferences.
– Must know where they and the candidates stand on issues
and see differences between candidates.
– Candidates can be ambiguous on the issues.
– The press tends to focus on the “horse race” not the
issues.
– Today candidates are forced to take a clear stand in the
party primaries.
• Electoral College actually elects the President -
founders wanted him chosen by the elite of
the country
• States choose the electors
• Winner-Take-All system gives bigger emphasis
to more populated states
 Voting 
• Most common way in which American’s express
themselves politically.
• Who determines voter eligibility?
• History of voter eligibility.
• Post Civil War expanded to include
– Blacks—15th Amendment
– Women—19th Amendment
– 1924—Indians given citizenship and right to vote.
– 1965 Voting rights act
– 26th Amendment—Age reduced to 18.
 Voter Turnout  

• Because Americans hold so many elections

voters tend to pick and choose which ones to
vote in.
• Some Terms—
– Presidential elections.
– General election.
– Primary election.
– Midterm elections.
– Off-year elections.
 Voter Turnout 

• Turnout is highest in presidential general elections.

• Turnout higher in general elections than primary
elections and higher in primaries than in special
elections.
• Turnout is higher if there are federal elections at the
same time than if purely state or local.
• Turnout is higher in state elections than in local
elections.
• 1960 turnout was 63% but has declined steadily since
then, although voting turnout has gone up the last two
elections.
 Why is Turnout so Low
• Laziness
• Apathy
• Cost of voting is high
• Lack of candidate appeal
• Lack of candidate competition
 How People Vote 

• People tend to vote on the basis of three

factors: Party, issues and candidates
 Voting on the Basis of Party

– Most people vote for candidates from the party

with whom they identify
– The number of Independents has gone up
dramatically since 1970.
– 2/3 of independents are partisan in their voting
behavior
– Pure independents; 10% of the population.
 Voting Based on Candidate
• Candidate-centered era of politics?
• What Americans want in a candidate?
• Important to be “main stream”
– McGovern and Goldwater
 
• Which Quality Mattered Most in the 2004 Vote 
• Source: 2004 Exit Polls from Edison Media
Research and Mitofsky International at
www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/sta
tes/US/P/00/epolls.0.html.
 Voting on the Basis of Issues 
 

• Issues are less important than party and personality in determining

votes.
• Reasons:
– Candidates obscure their positions.
– Candidates typically hug the political center
– Only a minority of voters have enough interest in or knowledge of the
issues.
• Wedge issues
• When do issues become the most important factor?
• Voters are more likely to make issues important retrospectively
• Most important issue in most elections?
 VOTER REGISTRATION 

• As 89% of registered voters actually voted in the 2004 Presidential elections, it shows that voter
registration is a good indicator of voting behavior.
– Figuring our the reasons why people do not register is a good way of figuring out why people
don’t turnout to vote.
• According to a recent Census report, there were 32 million potential, but unregistered, voters for
the 2004 Presidential elections.
• Out of these 32 million,
– 51% claimed disinterest in politics or a belief that their vote will not count, and are voluntary
disenfranchised.
– 28% claimed involuntary disenfranchisement due to the registration process.
– 21% claimed voting eligibility problems, personal or religious reasons or simply didn’t
answer
•  
 
 
 
• REGISTRATION DEADLINES 
 
• Of the 9 million people who said they had problems with the registration process, the majority said they missed
their state’s registration deadline.
•  
• This deadline ranges nationwide from 10 to 30 days prior to the election.
– NJ deadline is 21 days before Election Day
•  
• This is problematic because:
– Registration ends just as political campaigns are swinging into full-gear
• Politically inactive people may become aware of the election just as registration is ending.
•  
 
 
 
• ELECTION DAY REGISTRATION 
• This problem could be easily remedied with Election Day Registration, which allows constituents to register on
Election Day, and there would be no need for registration deadlines, which would allow 9 million more people a
chance to vote. 
 
• 9 million votes are equivalent to the votes of Ohio, or Pennsylvania
• 4 of the 7 states that allow Election Day registration boast voter turnout rates above 70%, topping out at with the
nation’s highest at 77%
• The nation’s and NJ’s voter turnout rate is about 65%
• AMERICAN VOTING TRENDS 
 
• Voter turnout is dropping everywhere.
•  
• Voter turnout correlates closely with voter
income.
• MOST COMMON REASONS FOR DISINTEREST IN VOTING: 
• Not enough of a fine line drawn between candidates/parties on campaign issues.
•  
• Outcome of election cannot be determined by a single vote, it is a collective effort,
thus leading to impatience.
•  
• Distrust in candidates – comes largely from big commerce that control social and
financial influence in a given area while endorsing candidate’s campaign, causing
imbalanced popularity between both candidates.
•  
• Voter knowledge of candidates and issues lags – politicians don’t have much
power to do anything since they really just function as a professional lobbyist to
federal gov’t as well as certain levels of state gov’t.
•  
• Voters become disinterested when candidates loose after being favored to win,
leading to apathy and depression in the system
• RESULTS OF  
DISINTEREST IN VOTING: 
• All of these factors favor incumbents because
voters, especially those habitually vote for
incumbents, are more likely to vote for
somebody they know without critically
remembering what kind of a politician they really
are. Their level of popularity will rise and give
way to tenure and uneven balance in political
power and popularity to voters, government, and
various public and private intuitions alike.
• How many times have we extended the right to vote and to what
groups? 
 

• Voting is the type of political activity most often engaged in by

Americans.
•  
• The Electorate has expanded many times in history:
– 1870- 15th amendment-black men right to vote
– 1920- 19th amendment-women
– 1924- Congress granted Native Americans citizenship and vote
– 1964- 24th amendment prohibited use of poll tax
– 1965- Voting Rights Act of 1995-removed restrictions that kept
blacks from voting.
– 1971-26th amendment, 18 year old vote
• What Amendment guaranteed the right to
vote for women? 
• 1870 – 13th Amendment
• 1870 – 14th Amendment
• 1870 – 15th Amendment
• 1920 – 19th Amendment
• 1964 – 24th Amendment
• 1971 – 26th Amendment
• What Amendment guaranteed the right to
vote for 18 year olds? 
• 1870 – 13th Amendment
• 1870 – 14th Amendment
• 1870 – 15th Amendment
• 1920 – 19th Amendment
• 1964 – 24th Amendment
• 1971 – 26th Amendment
• What Amendment guaranteed the right to
vote for minorities? 
• 1870 – 13th Amendment
• 1870 – 14th Amendment
• 1870 – 15th Amendment
• 1920 – 19th Amendment
• 1964 – 24th Amendment
• 1971 – 26th Amendment
• In which Presidential election did the highest
percentage of the electorate actually vote? 
• 1960
• 1968
• 1972
• 1980
• 1996
• 2000
• 2004
• Voter Turnout  

• We hold more elections for more offices than others

countries do.
• Our highest turnout is in presidential general elections.
We also turn out more for federal elections more than local
does.
– 1960, we peaked at 63% of people over 21.
– http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0781453.html
– Turnout should have gone up since 1960 because of the Voting
Rights Act.
– Women have increased their voting turnout.
– The electorate has grown richer and more educated; it seems
we would have an increase because of that.
• Why is Voter Turnout so Low? 
 
• 85 million eligible Americans fail to vote in presidential elections – why?
• People are lazy, they are apathetic, and voter registration appears to be
the major block to voting.
• What percentage of eligible voters aged 18-25 voted in the 2004 election? 
• 100%
• 80%
• 60%
• 50%
• 44%
• There has been a decline of voter turnout since 1960 because of the 26th
amendment – lowered voting age to 18 – it expanded the electorate, but
lowered the overall turnout percentage, because this block of young
voters just don’t vote.  
• Why is Voter Turnout so Low? 
 

• Others say, there is not a candidate who is

appealing.
– Candidates themselves are not real choices.
– They are not exciting, and they avoid taking stands
on issues.
• Who is most likely to vote? 
• Christians
• People 18-25
• High School grads
• College grads
• African-Americans
• Who Votes? 
• What kinds of things help us to predict who
will/does vote?
• Level of education helps predict whether
people will vote, as education increases, so
does the propensity to vote.
• Race and ethnicity are also linked to voting in
large part because they are correlated to
education.
• Who Votes? 
• Income and age are also important.
• Those with higher income vote more.
• 18-24 year olds vote the least
• People over 70 also have low voter turnout.
• Who is most likely to vote? 
• Parents of young children
• People age 18-25
• People over 70
• People age 55-70
• Who are the CAN NOT voters? 
• 1. Aliens (non-citizens) even though nothing in
Constitution disallows them-states choose
(p.132)
• 2. convicted felons lose privilege
• 3. some religious disallow people to vote.
• 4. some are physically ill and can not get to the
polls
• 5. mentally restrained in institutions.
• What is a NON VOTER? 
• 1. People that choose not to
• 2. Voter who thinks vote does not count
• 3. People who are satisfied with the status quo
• 4. Those who distrust the government
• 5. Those who are not interested
• 6. Those who are not registered
• 7. Most of the time these are the NON VOTERS- younger than 35,
unmarried, unskilled, uneducated, live in rural areas, in the South.
• 8. Band wagon effect (choose not to because everyone else has
already voted one way)
• 9. Bad weather, long lines, inconvenient
• 10 Non voters who vote (vote top of ticket, leave bottom blank-
ballot fatigue)
• What Factors influence us to vote? 
• Psychological- how do you feel about the issues?
How do you feel about the candidates-what are
your perceptions?
• Sociological-groups that you belong to-age,
occupation, religion, geographical area in which
you live, sex, education, party identification.
• Party identification is the single most significant
and lasting predictor of whether a person will
vote, it is also the most important factor that
brings us to the polls.
• Voting Choices 
 
• Party ID- has a lot to do with one’s evaluation of candidates
and often predicts a person’s stand on issues.
• 2/3rd of all independents are, in fact, partisan in their
voting behavior, meaning they have two choices-vote
democrat or republican. Independent democrats vote
democrat. Independent republicans vote republican.
• Voting on the Basis of Candidates-the 1980’s marked the
emergence of candidate-centered elections. Greater
weight given to the candidate’s strengths and weaknesses
is not new.
• Voting Choices 
 
• Most scholars agree, issues are NOT as central to the decision
process as partisanship and candidate appeal. Candidates are
intentionally vague on their positions. By not detailing their plan,
they can appeal to the middle.
• The state of the economy is often the central issue in midterm
elections. It is common for the president’s party to lose seats in
Congress in the off-year elections.
 
• Voters tend to see the responsibility of the economy resting more
with the president than with Congress, governors, or local officials.
• Less-educated people tend to judge a candidate on the basis of
their own financial standings. Upper-status voters are more likely
to watch the overall performance of the economy.
• The Electoral College was created at the
Constitutional Convention by the Founding
Fathers
• It was the last of many plans adopted in 1787
in Philadelphia
• Major Changes Through the Years 
• 12th Amendment-1804-Separated the
candidacy of the President and the Vice-
President
• Popular election of electors in the 1820’s  &
30’s
• The Mechanics 
• The  Presidential Election should be viewed as 51 separate elections each with a “winner take all”
system
• To win a candidate must get a majority of 538 votes or 270
• Each state is represented in the EC according to their total number of members of Congress
•  
Kentucky has 2 senators and 6 representatives.  This means that Kentucky has 8 electoral votes
• California, the most populous state, has two senators and 52 representatives.  This gives California
54  electoral votes
• Wyoming, the least populous state, has two senators and 1 representative.  This gives Wyoming 3
electoral votes
• The total electoral vote of 538 is based on 100 senators, 435 representatives  for the 50 states. 
The 23rd Amendment gave Washington, DC 3 electoral votes
• The candidates compete in 50 states and DC for electoral votes and the winner must have at least
270
• The Electoral College always works when there are only two candidates
• If  there are more than two candidates, the system might not work
• If the system does not work, the House elects the President and the Senate elects the Vice-
President.  This has not happened since 1824.
• What the Individual Vote Means 
• Individual votes count only in the state where
they are cast
• When all states have voted, the candidate with
the most votes in each state gets all the electoral
votes of that state
• In December, following the November Election,
the winning electors in each state go to their
respective state capitals and cast their votes and
send them to Congress
• Electoral College Delegates 
• The delegates are chosen by the political
parties in each state
• Historically, the delegates have been 99.9%
loyal to their party
• After the combined votes in 50 states and DC
are counted by a joint session of Congress, the
election is official
• Disadvantages of the Electoral College
System 
• Complex
• The person with the most votes may not win
• Advantages 
• Preserves the federal system-winning individual states is important.  Without the
EC, state lines mean nothing
• Preserves the two party system
• Keeps our politics moderate-extreme parties have little chance of winning any
state
•  
 
 
 
• Advantages  
• Protects minorities-they form the balance of power in most states and can’t be
ignored.  Without the EC, one could develop a program just for the white urban
middle class and win. (If you want David Duke, the KKK man from Louisiana as
President or some other extremist, then abolish the Electoral College  and go for
all popular vote and you may get such a person.)
• In ancient Greece, citizens who did not vote
were called idiotes
• In 2000, there were about 205.8 million
voters, but almost half were idiotes who did
not vote
• There are even more idiotes in off-year
elections