The University of Cambodia Assignment Pol 101
Chapter 11: Election
In this chapter, we ask three general questions about elections, each followed by a more specific
question about U.S. elections. First, we ask why people vote. This leads us to the puzzle of why voting
turnout in the U.S. is low. Second, we ask how people vote. This brings us the question of whether
party loyalties in the United States are shifting. Finally, we ask what wins elections. This takes us to
some of the strategies used in U.S. elections.
Why Do People Vote?
Explain the low turnout in U.S. elections.
The reason behind low voter turnout in U.S. elections compared to other democracies,
particularly in Europe it’s because of these:
Registration Barriers: In the U.S., voters must register personally, often months before
elections, whereas European countries automatically register citizens at age 18.
Election Timing: U.S. elections are held on Tuesdays, a workday, while many European
countries hold elections on Sundays. Early voting in some U.S. states has helped marginally.
Ballot Complexity: U.S. ballots are long and include multiple candidates and referendums,
while European ballots are simpler, often just listing parties.
Campaign Dynamics: U.S. campaigns rely heavily on negative TV ads, which may disillusion
voters. Many Americans feel their vote doesn’t matter or that candidates are indistinguishable
by election day.
Cultural Factors: Low turnout may reflect satisfaction with the system or resignation rather
than alienation. Some argue it’s a sign of political disengagement, while others see it as a
stable feather of U.S. democracy.
Who Vote?
People who vote the most tend to be older, wealthier, better-educated, urban, and politically
engaged. Younger, poorer, and less-educated individuals vote less because they feel politics doesn’t
affect them. Over time, gaps based on race and gender have narrowed.
Income & Education:
o Higher-income and better educated individuals vote more: Education increases
political interest and awareness, Wealth gives people a stake in election outcomes
(e.g., taxes, policies).
o Blue-collar workers often feel disconnected from politics, seeing little difference
between candidates.
o Sense of efficacy (belief that voting matters) is stronger among professionals.
o Decline in U.S. voter turnout despite more education maybe due to: Less elite status
of college degree, Negative campaigning discouraging voters, Postmaterialism~people
prioritizing personal interests over politics.
Age:
o Young People (Under 25) vote less: they feel less involved, have lower incomes, and
focus on personal concerns.
o Middle-aged and older adults vote more: they care about taxes, Social Security, and
Medicare.
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The University of Cambodia Assignment Pol 101
o Those over 70 have the highest turnout.
Gender:
o Historically, men voted more than women. But now, women vote more than men (due
to higher education levels).
Race:
o African American turnout has risen, nearly matching or surpassing white turnout
(especially with Obama’s candidacy).
o Latino turnout is lower but increasing. Racial voting gaps are shrinking due to
education, income growth, and civil rights laws.
Place of Residence:
o Urban areas vote more than rural areas (easier access to polls, higher education
levels).
o Long-term residents vote more than newcomers (stronger community ties).
o Southern U.S. turnout was lower but is now catching up to other regions.
Who Votes How?
Voting Behavior is Shaped by a mix of long-term loyalties and short-term influences.
1. The differences of voting behavior of long-term loyalties and short-term and also
others type:
a. Long-term loyalties:
Partisan Identification (Party ID): Many voters stick with one party for life,
often influenced by family or upbringing. Strong party supporters rarely
switch sides, while weak identifiers may change votes based on issues or
candidates.
Class Voting (Social Class): Historically, working class voters lean left
(Democrats in the U.S., Labour in the U.K.,) While wealthier groups favor
conservative parties. However, class voting has weakened-some workers vote
conservative, and some professionals vote liberal.
Regional Voting (Religion): White evangelical Protestants strongly back
Republicans. Secular voters, Jews and many Catholics lean Democratic.
Race & Ethnicity: are strong determinants for voting in the United States,
especially for minority groups.
o African Americans overwhelmingly vote Democratic (93% for
Obama in 2012).
o Hispanics also favor Democrats (71% for Obama), partly due to
immigration policies.
o White voters are more split but lean Republican (59% for
Romney).
Religious Blocs (Urban vs. Rural): After race, the divide between the
religious and the secular is the single strongest predictor in U.S. voting.
o Cities vote liberal (due to diversity, education, and working-class
populations).
o Rural and suburban areas tend conservative (prioritizing tradition,
religion, and lower taxes).
b. Short-term Influences:
Economic Conditions: Voter punish or reward leaders based on the economy
(2008 financial crisis hurt Republicans, slow recovery helped Democrats in
2012).
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The University of Cambodia Assignment Pol 101
Events & Scandals: Watergate boosted Carter in 1976, the Falklands We
helped Thatcher in 1983.
Candidate Appeal: Obama’s youth focused campaign won young voters in
2008/2012, Reagan’s Charisma drew lasting GOP support in the 1980s.
c. Other Key Trends
Age Groups: Younger voters are less predictable but often follow current
trends (Obama’s youth surge). Older voters focus on stability (Social
Security, taxes).
Gender Gap: Women now vote more Democratic than men, favoring social
welfare and reproductive rights.
Marriage Gap: Married voters lean conservative, singles vote more liberal.
Electoral Realignment
Realignment: Major, long-term shift in party ID.
1. What is Realignment?
Realignment Theory suggests that certain “critical elections” cause lasting shifts in voter
loyalty from one party to another, creating new long-term voting blocs. Examples in U.S. history
include:
1860 (Lincoln): Republicans became dominant after the Civil War.
1932 (FDR): Democrats gained support with the New Deal.
1980 (Reagan): Southern whites shifted from Democrat to Republican.
Some argue realignment happens gradually (secular realignment) rather than in one election.
For example, the South’s move to the GOP took decades, starting with civil rights issues in the 1960s
and solidifying by the 1990s.
2. Problems with Realignment Theory
a. Short-term factors matter more now: Voters often react to current issues
(economy, scandals) rather than party loyalty. For examples:
Clinton (1992) and Obama (2008) won due to economic crises, not
permanent.
Many voters now prefer “divided government” (Republican President +
Democratic Congress to limit power.
b. Party loyalty (party ID) is weaker: Fewer voters are firmly attached to one party.
3. Dealignment: Major, long-term decline in party ID
The Rise of independents
Instead of realignment, the U.S. may be experiencing dealignment a decline in strong party
ties. Key trends:
a. More voters call themselves independent (up from 20% in 1948 to~33% today).
b. Independents are often young, educated, and distrustful of both parties (due to
events like Vietnam, Watergate, Iraq War).
c. However, many “Independents” still lean toward one party, only about 11% are
true swing voters.
4. Does Realignment Still Happen?
a. Some argue Obama’s 2008/2012 wins (backed by young, minority, and female
voters) signaled a new Democratic realignment, but this didn’t fully hold
(Trump’s 2016 win).
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The University of Cambodia Assignment Pol 101
b. Others believe modern politics is too unstable for classic realignment, with voters
swinging based on issues, not party loyalty.
Realignment used to mean voters switching parties for generations, but today’s politics are
more fluid. While some long-term shifts occur (like the South turning Republican), short-term factors
(economy, leaders, scandals) often matter more. Meanwhile dealignment—weaker party ties--means
elections are increasingly decided by independents and current events, not fixed loyalties.
(Party loyalty isn’t dead, but it’s not as powerful as it once was).
What Win Elections?
In theory, elections enable citizens to choose and guide their government. In modern elections,
however, are less about policy debates and more about image, media strategy and targeted voter
appeals. Here’s how campaigns win:
1. Personality & Media Dominance
Candidates prioritize charisma over ideology (Reagan's optimism, Obama's hope).
TV/image control is critical: photo ops, scripted ads (*le clip politique*), avoiding
unscripted Q&A.
Negative messaging targets base voters through mail/social media (e.g., "They'll cut
Medicare!").
2. Retrospective Voting
Voters judge incumbents on performance, especially the economy:
Good economy? Incumbent party wins (Reagan '84, Clinton '96).
Bad economy? Opposition wins (Carter '80, McCain '2008).
3. Candidate Strategies & Voter Targeting
Swing states: Focus resources on battlegrounds (Florida, Ohio).
Microtargeting: Use voter data to customize appeals (e.g., gun rights for rural voters).
Coalition-building: Shift blocs (e.g., Democrats losing unions but gaining suburban
women).
4. Money & Ground Game
TV ads require massive funding, favoring wealthy candidates.
Local offices mobilize low-turnout supporters (Obama’s 2012 youth vote operation).
Why It Matters?
Elections now hinge on:
- Leader likability + economic mood + precise voter targeting + funding.
- The result? Policy debates often take a backseat to marketing and mobilization.
This keeps all critical elements (including retrospective voting and candidate
strategies) while making connections clear. Let me know if you'd like adjustments!
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