Introduction to Expert Choice
National Institutes of Health
Office of Research Services
Office of Quality Management
September 20th, 2005
1
For more information on Decision Making using Expert
Choice Software:
[Link]
[Link]
Or Contact:
Antonio Rodriguez
Rodrigan@[Link]
(301) 402-3440
Acknowledgements
This presentation was developed by the Office of Quality Management with content provided
by Expert Choice, Inc. Arlington, VA where noted.
2
Course Goals
•Understand basic decision making theory
•Provide a structured approach for decision making
•Provide an introduction into Expert Choice software and
hardware tool.
•Have class participate in building a decision model in
Expert Choice
3
The Challenge
Complexity and Responsibility Dysfunctional Decision Making
Poor Politicking
Information Compliance Horse
Trading
Competing End
Need for
Objectives Dictates Arounds
ROI
Pet
Uncertainty Projects
Need for Crisis Mis-
Accountability Management
Need to align
spending with Decision
objectives Knee-Jerk
Time Failure Top Down
Decisions
Pressure Funding
Risk
Limited Across the
Resources Lost
Failed Board Cuts
Money
Projects
Frustration
Misalignment
Dissatisfaction
Compliance Bad Choices
Failure Wasted
Resources
Bad Outcomes
Provided by Expert Choice
4
The Four Scales of Measurement
Interval Ratio
Number Number
1st
2nd
3rd
Nominal Ordinal
Number Number
5
Basic Components of a Sound Decision
Define Problem or Goal: What are you trying to accomplish?
Ex: Provide a secure campus, purchase a new IT system, select the best vendor,
choose the best procedure, choose a building location.
Define Criteria: How will you judge the alternatives?
Ex: Cost, reliability, flexibility, safety, customer satisfaction, time to implement.
Identify Alternatives: What are the options?
Ex: Software X, Y or Z, procedure I, II, or III, Vendor X, Y , or Z
Identify Constraints: What options are unfeasible?
Ex: Can’t spend over $X, has to be implements next month, laws/regulations
Choose Alternative/s: Which options are best?
Ex: Purchase software x, implement procedure II, select vendor Z.
6
For Discussion:
Goal: Choosing a mode of transportation
for commuting to work
•What needs to be defined in the above goal?
•What criteria would you use to judge alternatives?
•What are some possible alternatives?
•What are some possible constraints?
7
What is Collaboration and Consensus in
Decision Making?
Collaboration:
•Two or more individuals or organizations working
together toward a common goal
•Usually required for most important and complex
decisions
Consensus:
•A decision that is acceptable to all members of the group
•Not necessarily complete agreement
8
Why is Collaboration and Consensus
Importantfor a Decision?
•Distributes the effort and responsibility of the decision
around.
•On complex decisions no one person has all the required
information to make an informed decision
•Draws from a larger pool of knowledge and perspectives
•Generally group decisions are superior to individual
decisions
•Creates buy-in and ownership for the decision and thus
greatly increases the chance of success
9
What is Expert Choice?
•A collaborative decision support software and
hardware system that facilitates group
decisions that are more efficient, analytical,
and justifiable.
•Allows real-time interaction of management
teams to achieve consensus on decisions.
•Structures decisions using the Analytic
Hierarchy Process (AHP).
10
What is the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)?
•Developed in the 1970s by Dr. Thomas L. Satty to provide a
systematic approach to setting priorities and decision making in a
complex environment.
•Was designed to reflect the way people actually think.
•Allows quantitative and qualitative aspects of the decision to be
considered.
•Reduces the complex decisions into a series of one-on-one
comparisons that are later synthesized to provide accurate results.
•Uses a ratio scale for weighting criteria and scoring alternatives which
adds precision to the measurement.
11
What Expert Choice Provides:
•Structure for the entire decision making process
•A tool that facilitates collaboration between multiple stakeholders
•Analytical decision making
•Improved communication
•Usually a faster decision
•Documentation of the decision making process
•A consensus decision
•Ultimately better and more justifiable decisions
12
Who uses Expert Choice?
Commercial
•4,000 Corporations
•25% of Fortune 500
Government
•More than 27 Federal Agencies
•More than $120 Billion Allocated Annually
Academic
•100+ Universities
•60 MBA Programs
•1,000+ Articles
13
Primary Application Areas
Project Portfolio Management
Resource Allocation/Capital Budgeting
Strategic Planning
Source/Vendor/Product Selection
Risk Assessment
QFD/Six Sigma/Balanced Scorecard/KM
Provided by Expert Choice 14
Group Exercise
Goal: Choose a destination for a one week vacation
Define/Clarify goal……….…………………………..5 Minutes
Define and structure criteria………………………15 Minutes
5 Minute Break
Weight Criteria……………………………………...20 Minutes
Identify Alternatives………………………………...15 Minutes
Vote & rank alternatives.…………………………..15 Minutes
Id constraints & perform sensitivity analysis........10 minutes
15
Conclusion
Facilitation with Expert choice is available to
ORS and ORF service groups
Areas for consideration: vendor selection,
moderate to large capital purchases, criteria
development, procedure development, or any
complex decision.
If you have a project that could use Expert Choice,
contact the Office of Quality Management
16
