Demand Forecasting

Dr. Rakesh Kumar Sharma Assistant Professor School of Behavioral Sciences & Business Studies Thapar University, Patiala

Forecasting
Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future. Nils Bohr

Forecasting
Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future. Nils Bohr

Objectives
Give the fundamental rules of forecasting Calculate a forecast using a moving average, weighted moving average, and exponential smoothing

Calculate the accuracy of a forecast

What is forecasting?

Forecasting is a tool used for predicting future demand based on past demand information.

Why is forecasting important?

Demand for products and services is usually uncertain. Forecasting can be used for

Strategic planning (long range planning)

Finance and accounting (budgets and cost controls) Marketing (future sales, new products) Production and operations

What is forecasting all about?

Demand for Mercedes E Class

We try to predict the future by looking back at the past

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug

Time

Predicted demand looking back six months

Actual demand (past sales)

Predicted demand

Whats Forecasting All About?

From the March 10, 2006 WSJ:

Ahead of the Oscars, an economics professor, at the request of Weekend Journal, processed data about this year's films nominated for best picture through his statistical model and predicted with 97.4% certainty that "Brokeback Mountain" would win. Oops. Last year, the professor tuned his model until it correctly predicted 18 of the previous 20 best-picture awards; then it predicted that "The Aviator" would win; "Million Dollar Baby" won instead. Sometimes models tuned to prior results don't have great predictive powers.

Some general characteristics of forecasts

Forecasts are always wrong Forecasts are more accurate for groups or families of items Forecasts are more accurate for shorter time periods Every forecast should include an error estimate Forecasts are no substitute for calculated demand.

Key issues in forecasting

1. A forecast is only as good as the information included in the forecast (past data) 2. History is not a perfect predictor of the future (i.e.: there is no such thing as a perfect forecast)

REMEMBER: Forecasting is based on the assumption that the past predicts the future! When forecasting, think carefully whether or not the past is strongly related to what you expect to see in the future

Example: Mercedes E-class vs. M-class Sales

Month
Jan Feb

E-class Sales
23,345 22,034

M-class Sales
-

Mar
Apr May Jun Jul

21,453
24,897 23,561 22,684 ?

Question: Can we predict the new model M-class sales based on the data in the the table? Answer: Maybe... We need to consider how much the two markets have in common

What should we consider when looking at past demand data?

Trends Seasonality Cyclical elements Autocorrelation Random variation

Some Important Questions

What is the purpose of the forecast? Which systems will use the forecast? How important is the past in estimating the future?

Answers will help determine time horizons, techniques, and level of detail for the forecast.

Types of forecasting methods

Qualitative methods
Rely on subjective opinions from one or more experts.

Quantitative methods
Rely on data and analytical techniques.

Qualitative forecasting methods

Grass Roots: deriving future demand by asking the person closest to the customer. Market Research: trying to identify customer habits; new product ideas. Panel Consensus: deriving future estimations from the synergy of a panel of experts in the area.

Historical Analogy: identifying another similar market.

Delphi Method: similar to the panel consensus but with concealed identities.

Quantitative forecasting methods

Time Series: models that predict future demand based on past history trends

Causal Relationship: models that use statistical techniques to establish relationships between various items and demand Simulation: models that can incorporate some randomness and non-linear effects

How should we pick our forecasting model?

1. Data availability 2. Time horizon for the forecast 3. Required accuracy 4. Required Resources

Time Series: Moving average

The moving average model uses the last t periods in order to predict demand in period t+1. There can be two types of moving average models: simple moving average and weighted moving average The moving average model assumption is that the most accurate prediction of future demand is a simple (linear) combination of past demand.

Time series: simple moving average

In the simple moving average models the forecast value is At + At-1 + + At-n Ft+1 = n

is the current period.

Ft+1 is the forecast for next period

n A is the forecasting horizon (how far back we look), is the actual sales figure from each period.

Example: forecasting sales at Kroger

Kroger sells (among other stuff) bottled spring water

Month Jan Feb Mar

Bottles 1,325 1,353 1,305

Apr
May Jun Jul

1,275
1,210 1,195 ?

What will the sales be for July?

What if we use a 3-month simple moving average?

FJul =

AJun + AMay + AApr 3

= 1,227

What if we use a 5-month simple moving average?

FJul =

AJun + AMay + AApr + AMar + AFeb

5

= 1,268

1400 1350 1300 1250 1200 1150 1100 1050 1000 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

5-month MA forecast 3-month MA forecast

What do we observe?

5-month average smoothes data more; 3-month average more responsive

Stability versus responsiveness in moving averages

1000 900
Demand

800 700 600 500 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Week

Demand 3-Week 6-Week

Time series: weighted moving average

We may want to give more importance to some of the data

Ft+1 = wt At + wt-1 At-1 + + wt-n At-n

wt + wt-1 + + wt-n = 1 t is the current period.

Ft+1 is the forecast for next period n A w is the forecasting horizon (how far back we look), is the actual sales figure from each period. is the importance (weight) we give to each period

Why do we need the WMA models?

Because of the ability to give more importance to what happened recently, without losing the impact of the past.
Demand for Mercedes E-class
Actual demand (past sales) Prediction when using 6-month SMA Prediction when using 6-months WMA

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug

Time

For a 6-month SMA, attributing equal weights to all past data we miss the downward trend

Example: Kroger sales of bottled water

Month
Jan Feb Mar Apr

Bottles
1,325 1,353 1,305 1,275

What will be the sales for July?

May
Jun Jul

1,210
1,195 ?

6-month simple moving average

FJul =

AJun + AMay + AApr + AMar + AFeb + AJan 6

= 1,277

In other words, because we used equal weights, a slight downward trend that actually exists is not observed

What if we use a weighted moving average?

Make the weights for the last three months more than the first three months

6-month SMA July Forecast 1,277

WMA 40% / 60% 1,267

WMA 30% / 70% 1,257

WMA 20% / 80% 1,247

The higher the importance we give to recent data, the more we pick up the declining trend in our forecast.

How do we choose weights?

1. Depending on the importance that we feel past data has
2. Depending on known seasonality (weights of past data can also be zero).

WMA is better than SMA because of the ability to vary the weights!

Time Series: Exponential Smoothing (ES)

Main idea: The prediction of the future depends mostly on the most recent observation, and on the error for the latest forecast.

Smoothin g constant alpha

Denotes the importance of the past error

Why use exponential smoothing?

1. Uses less storage space for data 2. Extremely accurate 3. Easy to understand 4. Little calculation complexity

5. There are simple accuracy tests

Exponential smoothing: the method

Assume that we are currently in period t. We calculated the forecast for the last period (Ft-1) and we know the actual demand last period (At-1)

Ft Ft1 ( At1 Ft1 )

The smoothing constant expresses how much our forecast will react to observed differences If is low: there is little reaction to differences. If is high: there is a lot of reaction to differences.

Example: bottled water at Kroger

Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Actual 1,325 1,353 1,305 1,275 1,210 ? Forecasted 1,370 1,361 1,359 1,349 1,334 1,309 = 0.2

Example: bottled water at Kroger

Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Actual 1,325 1,353 1,305 1,275 1,210 ? Forecasted 1,370 1,334 1,349 1,314 1,283 1,225 = 0.8

Impact of the smoothing constant

1380 1360 1340 1320 1300 1280 1260 1240 1220 1200 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Actual a = 0.2 a = 0.8

Trend..
What do you think will happen to a moving average or exponential smoothing model when there is a trend in the data?

Impact of trend

Sales
Actual Data

Forecast

Regular exponential smoothing will always lag behind the trend. Can we include trend analysis in exponential smoothing?

Month

Exponential smoothing with trend

FIT: Forecast including trend

FITt Ft Tt

: Trend smoothing constant

Ft FITt 1 (At 1 FITt 1 ) Tt Tt 1 (Ft FITt 1 )

The idea is that the two effects are decoupled, (F is the forecast without trend and T is the trend component)

Example: bottled water at Kroger

At Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 1325 1353 1305 1275 1210 Ft 1380 1334 1344 1311 1278 1218 Tt -10 -28 -9 -21 -27 -43 FITt 1370 1306 1334 1290 1251 1175 = 0.8 = 0.5

Exponential Smoothing with Trend

1400 1350 Actual 1300 1250 1200 1150 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 a = 0.2 a = 0.8 a = 0.8, d = 0.5

Linear regression in forecasting

Linear regression is based on

1. Fitting a straight line to data

2. Explaining the change in one variable through changes in other variables.

dependent variable = a + b (independent variable)

By using linear regression, we are trying to explore which independent variables affect the dependent variable

Example: do people drink more when its cold?

Alcohol Sales Which line best fits the data?

Average Monthly Temperature

The best line is the one that minimizes the error

The predicted line is

Y a bX
So, the error is

i yi - Yi
Where: is the error y is the observed value Y is the predicted value

Least Squares Method of Linear Regression

The goal of LSM is to minimize the sum of squared errors

Min

i2

What does that mean?

Alcohol Sales

So LSM tries to minimize the distance between the line and the points! Average Monthly Temperature

Least Squares Method of Linear Regression

Then the line is defined by

Y a bX
a y bx

xy nxy b x nx
2 2

How can we compare across forecasting models?

We need a metric that provides estimation of accuracy

Errors can be:

Forecast Error

1. biased (consistent) 2. random

Forecast error = Difference between actual and forecasted value (also known as residual)

Measuring Accuracy: MFE

MFE = Mean Forecast Error (Bias)

It is the average error in the observations

MFE

A F
i 1 t

1. A more positive or negative MFE implies worse performance; the forecast is biased.

Measuring Accuracy: MAD

MAD = Mean Absolute Deviation

It is the average absolute error in the observations

MAD

A F
i1 t

1. Higher MAD implies worse performance. 2. If errors are normally distributed, then =1.25MAD

MFE & MAD: A Dartboard Analogy

Low MFE & MAD: The forecast errors are small & unbiased

An Analogy (contd)

Low MFE but high MAD: On average, the arrows hit the bullseye (so much for averages!)

MFE & MAD: An Analogy

High MFE & MAD: The forecasts are inaccurate & biased

Key Point
Forecast must be measured for accuracy! The most common means of doing so is by measuring the either the mean absolute deviation or the standard deviation of the forecast error

Measuring Accuracy: Tracking signal

The tracking signal is a measure of how often our estimations have been above or below the actual value. It is used to decide when to re-evaluate using a model.

RSFE (At Ft )
i1

RSFE TS MAD

Positive tracking signal: most of the time actual values are above our forecasted values Negative tracking signal: most of the time actual values are below our forecasted values

If TS > 4 or < -4, investigate!

Example: bottled water at Kroger

Month Jan Feb Mar Actual 1,325 1,353 1,305 Forecast 1,370 1,361 1,359

Month
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Actual
1,325 1,353 1,305 1,275 1,210 1,195

Forecast
1370 1306 1334 1290 1251 1175

Apr
May Jun

1,275
1,210 1,195

1,349
1,334 1,309

Exponential Smoothing ( = 0.2)

Forecasting with trend ( = 0.8) ( = 0.5)

Question: Which one is better?

Bottled water at Kroger: compare MAD and TS

MAD Exponential Smoothing Forecast Including Trend TS

70

- 6.0

33

- 2.0

We observe that FIT performs a lot better than ES Conclusion: Probably there is trend in the data which Exponential smoothing cannot capture

Which Forecasting Method Should You Use

Gather the historical data of what you want to forecast Divide data into initiation set and evaluation set Use the first set to develop the models Use the second set to evaluate Compare the MADs and MFEs of each model