Regression

1. Introduction

In the realm of statistical analysis, once we've explored the descriptive characteristics of
individual variables and quantified the association between them through correlation, the natural
next step is to understand how one variable might be predicted or explained by others. This is
precisely the domain of regression analysis. Regression is a fundamental statistical method
specifically designed to model and quantify the relationship between a dependent variable (the
outcome or response we are interested in predicting or explaining) and one or more independent
variables (the predictors or explanatory factors that are thought to influence the dependent
variable).

At its core, regression analysis serves several crucial functions in research, particularly in social
sciences, economics, public health, and beyond. It is mainly utilized for:

 Prediction: To forecast the value of the dependent variable for new or unseen values of
the independent variable(s).
 Explanation: To understand how changes in the independent variables are associated
with changes in the dependent variable.
 Hypothesis Testing: To statistically confirm or refute assumptions about the
relationships between variables, such as whether a particular independent variable has a
significant impact on the dependent variable.

Theorist Definition: According to Ya-Lun Chou in Statistical Analysis, “Regression analysis is

concerned with the study of the dependence of one variable on one or more other variables.”
This definition highlights the core objective: to investigate the statistical dependency, allowing
us to model and quantify the nature of that relationship.

2. Purpose of Regression

Regression analysis is not merely an academic exercise; it serves highly practical purposes in
various fields:

 To predict the value of a dependent variable: This is arguably the most common use.
For example, predicting future sales based on advertising spending, forecasting stock
prices, or estimating a student's performance based on their study habits.
 To understand the influence of independent variables: Regression helps in identifying
which independent variables have a significant impact on the dependent variable and the
direction (positive or negative) of that impact. It answers questions like: "Does increased
rainfall lead to increased crop yield?" or "How much does an additional year of education
influence income?"
 To assess the strength and direction of relationships: While correlation measures
association, regression provides a more detailed understanding of the strength and the
specific functional form (e.g., linear, curvilinear) of that relationship. It quantifies the
change in the dependent variable for a unit change in the independent variable.
  To guide policy-making, planning, and decision-making: By understanding the
relationships between variables, policymakers can make informed decisions. For
instance, a government might use regression to assess the impact of different social
programs on poverty reduction, or a business might decide on resource allocation based
on predicted market trends.

3. Types of Regression

Regression models can be categorized in several ways, offering different perspectives on how the
relationship between variables is structured or analyzed. These classifications help in selecting
the appropriate regression technique for a given research question and dataset.

Here's a breakdown of regression types based on your specified categories:

A. Based on Number of Independent Variables

1. Simple Regression (সাধারণ প্রতিগমন)

 Definition: Simple regression is the most basic form of regression analysis. It involves
examining the relationship between only two variables: one dependent variable (Y) and
one independent variable (X). The goal is to model how changes in the single
independent variable X are associated with changes in the dependent variable Y. This
model is often used when studying direct, one-to-one relationships.
 Formula: The most common form is Simple Linear Regression, represented by a straight
line equation: Y=a+bX+ϵ Where:
o Y is the dependent variable.
o X is the independent variable.
o a (or b0) is the Y-intercept, representing the expected value of Y when X is 0.
o b (or b1) is the slope coefficient, indicating the change in Y for a one-unit change
in X.
o ϵ is the error term, representing the unexplained variation in Y.
 Example: A classic example is predicting an individual's income (Y) solely based on
their years of education (X). Here, we are trying to understand how much income
 changes for each additional year of education, assuming all other factors are constant or
irrelevant.

2. Multiple Regression (বহুবিধ প্রতিগমন)

 Definition: Multiple regression is an extension of simple regression that allows for the
analysis of the relationship between a single dependent variable (Y) and two or more
independent variables (X1,X2,…,Xn). This technique is crucial because, in reality, most
phenomena are influenced by multiple interacting factors rather than a single one. It helps
in assessing the combined effects of multiple predictors on the dependent variable, as
well as the unique contribution of each predictor while controlling for others.
 Formula: For multiple linear regression, the formula expands to include all independent
variables: Y=a+b1X1+b2X2+…+bnXn+ϵ Where:
o Y is the dependent variable.
o X1,X2,…,Xn are the multiple independent variables.
o a is the Y-intercept.
o b1,b2,…,bn are the partial regression coefficients, indicating the change in Y for a
one-unit change in the corresponding X variable, holding all other independent
variables constant.
o ϵ is the error term.
 Example: Predicting a student’s overall academic result (Y) based on various
contributing factors such as daily study hours (X1), class attendance rate (X2), and
nutritional intake (X3). This model would estimate the impact of each of these factors
while considering the presence of the others.

B. Based on Nature of Relationship

3. Linear Regression (রৈখিক প্রতিগমন)

 Definition: Linear regression is characterized by the assumption that the relationship

between the dependent variable and the independent variable(s) can be best described by
a straight line (or a flat plane/hyperplane in higher dimensions). This implies that a
change in the independent variable(s) leads to a constant, proportional change in the
dependent variable across the entire range of values.
 Graph: When plotted on a scatter diagram (for simple linear regression), the data points
tend to cluster around a straight diagonal line, which represents the best-fit regression
line.
 Formula: The general form is: Y=a+bX+ϵ (for simple linear) or Y=a+b1X1+…+bnXn+ϵ
(for multiple linear).
 Example: The relationship between a person's height and their weight often exhibits a
broadly linear trend. Similarly, within certain operational ranges, the relationship
between a company's advertising expenditure and its sales revenue might be
approximated as linear.
4. Non-Linear Regression (অরৈখিক প্রতিগমন)

 Definition: Non-linear regression is employed when the relationship between the

dependent variable and the independent variable(s) is curved rather than straight. This
means the rate of change in the dependent variable is not constant; it might accelerate,
decelerate, or change direction as the independent variable(s) change. These models are
crucial for capturing more complex and realistic relationships that linear models cannot
adequately represent.
 Graph: When plotted, the regression "line" will be a distinct curve, such as a parabola
(U-shaped), an S-curve, an exponential curve, or a logarithmic curve.
 Formula: Non-linear regression models take various forms depending on the specific
curvilinear pattern. An example of a polynomial (a common type of non-linear)
regression formula for a quadratic relationship is: Y=a+bX+cX2+ϵ (where X2 introduces
the curve).
 Example: A classic example is a learning curve, where the initial rate of improvement
(e.g., productivity as experience increases) is rapid, but then it gradually slows down,
forming a curve. Another common example is the relationship between drug dosage and
its effect, which might increase up to a certain point and then plateau or even decrease.

C. Based on Direction of Relationship

5. Positive Regression (ধনাত্মক প্রতিগমন)

 Definition: Positive regression describes a direct relationship where an increase in the

independent variable(s) is associated with an increase in the dependent variable.
Conversely, a decrease in the independent variable(s) would be associated with a
decrease in the dependent variable. The regression line or curve slopes upwards from left
to right.
 Slope (b) is positive: In linear regression, a positive coefficient (b>0) for an independent
variable indicates a positive relationship.
 Example: More study hours often lead to better exam results. Similarly, generally, as a
country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increases, its per capita expenditure tends to
increase. This shows a direct, positive relationship between the variables.

6. Negative Regression (ঋণাত্মক প্রতিগমন)

 Definition: Negative regression (or inverse regression) describes an inverse relationship

where an increase in the independent variable(s) is associated with a decrease in the
dependent variable. Conversely, a decrease in the independent variable(s) would be
associated with an increase in the dependent variable. The regression line or curve slopes
downwards from left to right.
 Slope (b) is negative: In linear regression, a negative coefficient (b<0) for an
independent variable indicates a negative relationship.
 Example: As the number of cigarettes smoked per day (increase in X) tends to lead to a
lower life expectancy (decrease in Y). Another common example is the relationship
 between speed and travel time: as the speed of travel increases (X), the time taken to
cover a fixed distance decreases (Y).

D. Based on Coverage of Variables

7. Total Regression (সম্পূর্ণ প্রতিগমন)

 Definition: Total regression, in a conceptual sense, refers to a regression model that

ideally aims to include all relevant independent variables that collectively affect the
dependent variable. The goal is to build the most comprehensive model that explains the
maximum possible variation in the dependent variable by considering every significant
influencing factor. In practice, this is an aspirational goal, as identifying and measuring
"all relevant" variables can be challenging.
 Context: While simple regression analyzes a total bivariate effect, in the context of
multiple regression, a "total regression" model would be one that attempts to incorporate
every known and measurable predictor.
 Example: Predicting an individual's income (Y) using a wide array of demographic,
social, and economic factors, such as age, years of education, work experience, gender,
geographical location, industry, and job role. The aim is to capture the full spectrum of
influences on income.

8. Partial Regression (আংশিক প্রতিগমন)

 Definition: Partial regression refers to the analysis of the specific relationship between a
dependent variable and one particular independent variable, while statistically
controlling for (or holding constant) the effects of other independent variables that
are also included in the model. The coefficients in a multiple regression equation are
precisely these partial regression coefficients, representing the unique contribution of
each predictor.
 Context: This concept is inherently part of multiple regression. It allows researchers to
isolate the "pure" effect of one variable, removing the confounding influence of other
factors.
 Formula: While not a separate regression "type" with a distinct formula, it refers to the
interpretation of coefficients within a multiple regression model: Y=a+b1X1+b2X2+…
+bnXn+ϵ Here, b1 represents the partial regression coefficient of X1 on Y, meaning it's
the expected change in Y for a one-unit change in X1, assuming X2,…,Xn do not change.
 Example: Analyzing only the effect of years of education on income, while
simultaneously statistically controlling for (or keeping fixed) an individual's work
experience and age. This helps to determine if education has a significant impact on
income independent of these other factors.

4. Real-Life Applications

Regression analysis is a versatile tool with ubiquitous applications across various fields:
  Social Science: Used to study complex societal phenomena, such as the impact of
education levels on political awareness and participation, or the factors influencing social
mobility.
 Economics: Essential for macroeconomic modeling (e.g., how GDP is affected by
investment, labor force participation, and inflation rates) and microeconomic analysis
(e.g., predicting consumer demand based on price, income, and advertising).
 Public Health: Crucial for understanding disease epidemiology (e.g., predicting disease
spread based on sanitation, vaccination rates, and population density) and evaluating the
effectiveness of public health interventions.
 Psychology: Employed to model mental health outcomes based on various factors like
trauma history, socioeconomic status (income), social support networks, and therapeutic
interventions.
 Business and Finance: Used for sales forecasting, risk management, credit scoring,
optimizing pricing strategies, and analyzing stock market trends.
 Environmental Science: Predicting pollution levels based on industrial activity, traffic
volume, and weather patterns.

5. Merits of Regression

The widespread adoption of regression analysis stems from its numerous advantages:

 Helps in Prediction and Forecasting: Its primary strength is the ability to develop
models that can forecast future outcomes or estimate values for unobserved cases, given
the values of independent variables.
 Allows Quantitative Evaluation of Variable Relationships: It provides precise
numerical coefficients that quantify the strength and direction of the relationship between
variables, indicating the magnitude of change expected.
 Applicable to Complex and Multivariate Problems: Multiple regression can handle
situations where an outcome is influenced by many interacting factors, providing a more
realistic and comprehensive understanding.
 Useful in Building Evidence-Based Policy Decisions: By identifying significant
predictors and their impacts, regression analysis provides empirical evidence that can
guide effective policy development and resource allocation in government, business, and
non-profit organizations.
 Informs Hypothesis Testing: It allows researchers to test specific hypotheses about the
relationships between variables and determine their statistical significance.

6. Demerits of Regression

Despite its power, regression analysis has several limitations that must be carefully considered:

 Assumes Linear Relationship (not always true): Many regression models, especially
the most common ones like Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) linear regression, assume a
linear relationship. If the true relationship is non-linear, a linear model will provide a
poor fit and misleading conclusions.
  Sensitive to Outliers: Extreme values (outliers) in the data can disproportionately
influence the regression line or curve, leading to biased coefficients and inaccurate
predictions.
 Can be Misleading if Relevant Variables are Omitted: If important independent
variables that truly influence the dependent variable are excluded from the model
(omitted variable bias), the estimated effects of the included variables can be inaccurate
or misleading.
 Cannot Always Determine Causality: A fundamental principle is that "correlation does
not imply causation," and this extends to regression. While regression identifies statistical
associations and predictive relationships, it cannot, by itself, prove that a change in an
independent variable causes a change in the dependent variable. Establishing causality
requires robust research designs (e.g., randomized controlled trials), theoretical
justification, and ruling out confounding factors.
 Assumptions Violations: Regression models rely on several statistical assumptions (e.g.,
independence of errors, homoscedasticity, normality of residuals). Violations of these
assumptions can invalidate the standard errors and p-values, leading to incorrect
inferences.
 Multicollinearity: In multiple regression, if independent variables are highly correlated
with each other, it can lead to unstable coefficient estimates and make it difficult to
determine the unique contribution of each variable.

7. Conclusion

Regression analysis is undeniably a powerful and indispensable statistical tool that plays a
pivotal role in understanding, predicting, and explaining phenomena across nearly all fields of
study. It moves beyond mere association to reveal the precise nature, strength, and direction of
relationships between variables. By providing a mathematical model, it allows for quantifiable
predictions and insights into the influence of various factors.

Understanding the different types of regression—classified by the number of independent

variables (simple vs. multiple), the form of the relationship (linear vs. non-linear), the direction
of influence (positive vs. negative), and the analytical scope (total vs. partial)—enables
researchers to select the most appropriate method for their data and research questions.
Ultimately, when applied judiciously and with a clear understanding of its underlying
assumptions and inherent limitations (particularly the critical distinction between correlation and
causation), regression empowers researchers and policymakers to build more accurate,
meaningful, and evidence-based models that contribute significantly to informed decision-
making and advancements in knowledge.