Shell Scenarios

The 2025
Energy Security
Scenarios
Energy and
artificial intelligence
shell.com/scenarios

Generated by AI
Shell Scenarios
Shell Scenarios
The 2025The
Energy
2025Security
Energy Security
ScenariosScenarios

Contents
The rise of artificial intelligence 3 Changes to the energy system 21
AI and the evolution of the energy system 3 Energy demand 23

Future oil demand 25

Key observations 5
The future for natural gas 26
New directions in the 21st century 7
LNG in three scenarios 27
A mixed global picture 7
Low-carbon fuels 28
Technology trends 8
The rise of renewables 33
National response archetypes 10
Electrification in final energy 34
Three security scenarios 12 A nuclear renaissance? 35
Artificial intelligence and economic growth 13
Carbon management and
Three security scenarios: Surge 16
emissions 37
Three security scenarios: Archipelagos 19
Land-use change 43
Three security scenarios: Horizon 20
Policy, the emissions gap
and temperature 45
Meeting the Paris goal 47

Final thoughts 49

Technology timelines in The 2025

Energy Security Scenarios 50

References and
acknowledgements 51

Legal disclaimer 56

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The 2025 Energy Security Scenarios

The rise of artificial intelligence

When Shell published The Energy
Security Scenarios in March 2023, the AI and the evolution of the energy system
focus of the world was on high energy
The influence of AI is being felt in many areas, but over the next 20 to 30 years it could bring significant change
prices, with the cost of electricity at to the energy system.
record levels in much of Europe.
• Production of modules (such as solar photovoltaic • As quantum advantage emerges (the point
ChatGPT was four months old at the time and while it is panels, batteries and heat pumps) for the at which a quantum computing system solves
barely the tip of the artificial intelligence (AI) iceberg, it energy system could accelerate as AI improves problems outside the reach of classical algorithms),
has nevertheless been a game-changer in terms of public manufacturing and delivers ever more complex advances in materials science, electrochemistry,
awareness of a new technology wave. assembly line production of components. biotechnology and nuclear engineering could
accelerate electrification and energy storage,
Faced with the question of what the rise of AI might mean • Autonomous systems are appearing in vehicles. introduce new sustainable fuel processes and bring
When vehicles begin to operate autonomously
for the energy system, we again make use of scenario safe modular nuclear reactors into a variety of
on a larger scale within a managed traffic
analysis. At Shell, scenario analysis plays a key role in stationary and mobile applications.
environment, system efficiencies could be
creating context and growing understanding around
energy system, technology, geopolitical and social trends.
considerable, which could spark a more rapid • Large energy infrastructure projects could be
uptake of electric vehicles (EVs). accelerated as new AI tools are applied to
Scenarios are an exploration of how the world could
project management.
possibly evolve under different sets of assumptions. • A managed EV system allows the battery storage
inherent in the vehicles to contribute to electricity • AI and the supporting data systems will require
The process of creating scenarios involves considering grid storage and flexibility requirements, hastening large-scale uninterruptable power supplies, with
different possible futures, some of which may seem unlikely the journey to a renewable-only electricity system. overall electricity demand increasing as a result,
or even surprising. The value to Shell of producing scenarios even as other efficiency gains are made.
is to help senior management think about the long-term
challenges the business could face. In this way, scenarios • Electricity system management, both in terms of
balancing supply and managing demand through
may influence the company’s strategy – as one of many
smart responses in homes and factories will favour
inputs. But scenarios are not expressions of Shell’s strategy
renewable energy systems with grid battery
or business plan. Shell scenarios are informed by data,
storage. Location-specific solutions are more
constructed using models, and they contain insights from
easily realised as is the use of long-distance
leading experts in relevant fields.
power interconnections.

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The 2025 Energy Security Scenarios

So, we come to The 2025 Energy Security Scenarios,

where we have reimagined our two future energy scenarios
from 2023, now referred to as Archipelagos and
Horizon (previously Sky 2050), in the context of a world
making much greater use of AI. We have also added a third
scenario, Surge, which explores more deeply the prospect
of a new wave of economic growth spurred by productivity
improvements catalysed by AI.

Ultimately, for all readers, scenarios are intended as an aid

to making better decisions. They stretch minds, broaden
horizons and explore assumptions. We hope this set of
AI-based scenarios does exactly that.

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Key observations
• Political and societal tension is evident today as • Total demand for natural gas could grow into the 2040s • Following current trends, new technologies could halve
countries strive to deliver a new era of economic reaching around 4,500 billion cubic metres (bcm) per the carbon intensity of the energy system by 2050.
growth, ensure energy security and address year, of which 700 million tonnes per year (or 952 bcm) Biofuels, carbon capture and storage (CCS) and natural
climate change. is liquified natural gas (LNG). Natural gas is needed to and engineered carbon removals will lower or offset
provide industrial heat, fuel for power generation and emissions of fossil fuels. Renewable and nuclear power
• Artificial intelligence technologies herald societal heat for buildings and has an important role in helping in combination with electrification will decarbonise
change. Many emerging technologies are changing the
the world move away from coal. many energy services.
energy landscape, including electric transport, electric
appliances such as induction cookers and heat pumps, • Investment in oil and gas is currently around $600 • Biofuels make up about 4% of the global liquid fuel
industrial kilns and boilers heated by electricity, and the billion per year, which will be required for decades to market. Volumes could triple by 2050, particularly if
rapid growth of data centres throughout the world. come as the rate of depletion is about 5% per year, advanced conversion technologies progress. Low-carbon
which is considerably higher than the expected annual hydrogen will also grow, but only in areas that cannot
• Demand for energy services (the physical benefit, utility decline in demand of 1‒2%. However, only the most be electrified.CCS could become a multi-billion tonne
or good derived from using energy) will continue to
competitive resources in terms of cost, risk and carbon per year industry by 2050. Growth at scale in both
increase as the global population grows and living
intensity will attract capital. natural and engineered carbon removal will be crucial
standards rise. Over the next 25 years around a third
for delivery of net-zero emissions in the second half of
of the world’s growing population will embrace higher • Construction of the energy system is shifting from the century. Consequently, land management, with a
income lifestyles, such as buying their first car or taking large bespoke projects built in the field to modular
focus on natural carbon stocks and biodiversity, will
their first flight. units produced on assembly lines. This will accelerate
become very important.
the uptake of solar photovoltaic, wind turbines,
• The scenarios in this report highlight that primary
grid batteries, heat pumps, hydrogen electrolysers,
energy demand in 2050 could be nearly a quarter
potentially small modular nuclear reactors and CO2
higher than 2024 depending on economic growth rates,
direct air capture units in the future.
energy efficiency gains and the pace of electrification.

• Demand for oil is likely to grow by 3‒5 million barrels

per day into the early 2030s, with a long but slow
decline after that as petroleum fuels remain affordable
and convenient in transport, particularly in long-
distance road haulage, aviation and marine. The
use of petrochemicals is likely to continue into
the 22nd century.

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• Electrification increases in all sectors. Sales of electric • There is sufficient momentum in the energy transition to
vehicles are growing rapidly in some markets as are suggest a pre-2035 peak in fossil fuel use and a decline
heat pumps for home heating. However, a complete thereafter. These scenarios point to the world achieving
transition will take time – there are currently (in 2025) net-zero CO2 emissions, but the timing is uncertain. A
1.5 billion cars in the world, of which some 70 million future with warming above 2‒2.5°C appears unlikely.
are electric, and Europe has more than 90 million gas
boilers still in operation.

• The rapid growth of renewable power will continue.

Solar photovoltaic with batteries in lower-latitude
countries and wind in northern latitudes will satisfy
much of electricity demand. Natural gas and LNG will
gradually shift from a base load to a back-up fuel in
power generation or support uninterruptable demand in
energy-intensive industries and data centres.

• Nuclear remains a part of the global electricity mix, but

may see no net growth in the short to medium term as
older units are decommissioned. In the longer term, with
new technologies arriving, nuclear grows again and fills
new roles such as for ships.

• By the end of the century and with a focus on carbon

removal technologies and practices, the world could
achieve less than 1.5°C of warming. But plausible
scenarios indicate a near-term overshoot of this goal
is to be expected, and 2024 has been confirmed by
Europe’s Copernicus observation agency as the first
individual year to breach 1.5°C .

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New directions in the 21st century

A mixed global picture
The technology industry is racing to develop new In Poland, coal-fired power generation makes up between In Shenzhen, China, all public transport and taxis are
AI services and business models. For example, the use half and two-thirds of the electricity mix, and there are electric in a country that is the world’s largest producer
of a ride-hailing app in Los Angeles in 2025 can mean a fewer than 100,000 electric vehicles on the road. Given the of electric cars. The city has 100,000 charge points for
driverless electric taxi turns up, guided by an autonomous proximity to Ukraine, security concerns are paramount, and vehicles. Shenzhen and surrounding Guangdong province
artificial intelligence (AI) system. With extensive defence spending has risen sharply in recent years. Poland are global industrial behemoths, with greenhouse gas
deployment of renewables and the use of grid batteries, is subject to stringent EU greenhouse gas emission targets emissions continuing to rise. Security is primarily measured
CO2 emissions in California are down nearly a third since and legislation. in terms of economic growth and unfettered access to
2005, yet there is still underlying upward pressure as the global markets.
US economy grows and innovates. Also in the USA, illegal In Brazil, there are only limited electric vehicles on the
immigration and recent inflationary pressures have both streets, but the country has the lowest energy carbon Economic growth, global greenhouse gas emissions, border
contributed to political change. footprint globally. Sugar-cane ethanol is used in cars, security and technology development are key issues for the
biomass in industry and hydroelectricity powers homes second half of the 2020s. One common thread emerging
and businesses. Economic security is paramount as the is increasing competition between nations, be it economic,
country seeks growth. military or in trade.

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Technology trends
Technology companies are vying for dominance in the The energy system requires large amounts of capital While the energy industry is challenged by new entrants
emerging era of AI and many governments find themselves investment in infrastructure and therefore takes time and new technologies, incumbency is an inherent feature
losing control of these technologies faster than they are to change. Cars have a lifespan of some 15 years, planes of the system. But incumbency might not spread to
appearing. AI is looming as an important shaper of 21st 25‒40 years, and factories and homes can operate largely new markets in developing countries. New models and
century society, including its direct and indirect impact on unchanged for decades. The business models underpinning technologies may well become the foundation elements of
the energy system, how business responds to it and how the energy system are also solidly entrenched, from labour the energy system in these markets, as the countries attempt
the technology affects our daily lives. While the speed of practices that may protect coal miners in some countries to leapfrog a fossil-based development path.
change can appear blistering at times, which it is in some to fuel safety standards that support the commercial
areas, broad transformation is measured in decades. Apple aviation industry.
is approaching its sixth decade since start-up and Amazon
is already in its fourth.

Historically, the energy system has been through multiple

waves of change. Typically, there is a span of 15‒25
years between the first appearance of a technology and it
becoming established, then another 15‒25 years for it to be
adopted system-wide. But that timeline is being challenged.

Timelines for the adoption of information technology are

half those for new energy systems. As AI technologies
become incorporated into the energy system, faster change
may result. As technology companies adopt large-scale
modular production of energy system components, such as
solar photovoltaic and batteries, there are clear signs of
change, but will more widespread disruption follow?

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Technology timelines

2005–2010 Looking back 15 years 2025 Looking forward 15 years 2040–2045

Data-driven systems

The new technology of yesterday … … is the mainstream technology today … and leads to global transformation

• Lifestyle productivity, Apple iPhone introduced (2007) • More smartphones than people • Increased consumption and productivity
• Mature search engine algorithms (Google) and first • 9 billion Google searches per day and 30,000 hours • Virtual services, autonomous systems and pervasive
video uploaded to YouTube (2005) of video added to YouTube per hour artificial intelligence

Energy-driven systems

The new technology of yesterday … … is now established in the energy system (1‒5%) … and is becoming mainstream (>20‒30%)

• Electric cars: Tesla Roadster • 20 million EV and PHEV each year (1/4th of production) • All new vehicles are electric
• Solar: 17 GW installed with subsidies • 600 GW of solar PV installed per year • 1,000+ GW of solar installation per year
• First commercial grid-scale battery, 20 MW • 80 GW (180 GWh) of grid-scale batteries in use • 3 TW (30 TWh) of grid-scale batteries

The new technology today … … will create new AI-driven foundations

Acronyms: MW – megawatts
GW – gigawatts
GWh – gigawatt-hours • Generative AI, ChatGPT and large language models • Vehicle autonomy and autonomous traffic management
TW – terawatts
TWh – terawatt-hours • First DAC demonstration facilities • Virtual aggregation of modular energy system
components
EV – electric vehicles
PHEV – plug-in hybrid electric vehicle • Industrial electric processes and electric furnaces
DAC – direct air capture
• Modular production of energy system infrastructure • Mass assembly line production of modular components
• DAC module production scales up
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National response archetypes

Four different archetype responses to security, climate, economic growth and technology pressures are now visible,
based on how vulnerable countries are to security failures and how they manage economic volatility:

Innovation Wins, which can be seen in

countries like the USA and major resource-
Four evolving energy transition archetypes, each with a different pace of decarbonisation.
holders such as Middle East nations. These
countries are often self-sufficient in energy
and other resources so are not vulnerable
to supply failures, but their political systems are particularly
exposed to economic volatility such as swings in energy Green Dream
prices and inflation. They do not feel so threatened in the Using legislative frameworks
short term but invest heavily in innovation and infrastructure and structures to force change
as longer-term solutions to their needs. These are highly Great Wall of Change
competitive countries determined to protect their
A China-led low-carbon
economic positions. Innovation Wins infrastructure push
New solutions with
Green Dream, which can be observed rapid commercialisation
in the European Union. The EU’s wealth through incentives
makes it relatively able to deal with
economic volatility, but its import- Emergent Rising
dependent energy system creates
vulnerability to disruption, such as after the Russian invasion Surfers
of Ukraine. These countries may seek security through Riding the waves
legislative means. In the energy sector this has resulted in of opportunity
reduced energy use, increased energy efficiency and an
ongoing attempt to shift quickly and entirely to renewable
energy. For digital technology, protectionism through legal
More able Less able Reaction to Withstanding
channels and heightened regulation has emerged, which to endure to endure economic volatility security disruption
could leave the region without a major technology sector.

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Great Wall of Change, applies

mainly to China. The size of China’s
economy, its large coal reserves
and the scale of the investments it
is making in its own energy supply,
manufacturing capability and infrastructure provides
some resilience from both global economic volatility
and security threats. It looks to use its manufacturing
strength to build its position as a leading nation and
low-carbon-energy powerhouse.

Surfers, are countries that may face

numerous economic and development
challenges, which makes them
vulnerable to both economic volatility
and supply security. But they are
quick to adopt new technologies when affordable and
they seek partnerships with others and try to ride the
opportunities created by the actions of other archetype
country groups. They subdivide into:

Emergent Surfers, like India, which are adept at

political positioning and eager to leapfrog traditional
development pathways.

Rising Surfers, which include the world’s least

developed economies. These nations are more focused
on establishing basic foundations, such as expanding
access to modern energy sources and providing the
basic requirements for a good life.

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Three security scenarios

As the security mindset dominates and the global competitive
landscape becomes more intense, national interests take Gross Domestic Product (GDP) compared in the
precedence within political agendas. three scenarios

These agendas are shaped by concerns over insipid economic growth, AI technologies GDP, USD trillion (2016 PPP)
that provide additional advantage to already advanced economies, growing militarism 450
from traditional adversaries, and increasing climate pressures seen through the lens of
a
extreme weather events.
400

Three scenarios emerge from the pressures facing nations: Surge, Archipelagos and c
b
Horizon. In Surge, an era of robust economic growth is ushered in by AI technologies that 350

are welcomed and not overly challenged, with economic growth and AI infrastructure driving
up energy demand. The geopolitical landscape offers a spur for change as China and the 300
USA compete for AI dominance. The Archipelagos scenario sees a world still mindful of the
energy system disruption in 2022 followings Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but also a world 250
that reacts to the pressures of increasing migration across multiple borders and uneven global
trade patterns. Trade friction and geopolitics impinge on the speed of the energy transition, 200
but this is countered somewhat by growing societal pressure to address climate change, which
forces action. Horizon is illustrative of a rapid acceleration of the energy transition and
150
introduction of carbon management practices to sharply reduce emissions, both in response d

to a comprehensive policy framework with strong societal and political support. Importantly,
100
Horizon takes a normative approach aimed at a world that achieves two key things: net-zero
emissions by 2050 and global warming limited to 1.5°C by the end of the century.
50

Both Horizon and Archipelagos share the same global growth trajectory, between
2.5% and 3% for the balance of the 2020s and just below 2% through to 2100. But Surge 0
is built on higher growth assumptions, with a boost in productivity emerging from deeper 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
use of AI technologies in global supply chains. New goods and services also emerge, further
a Surge b Archipelagos c Horizon d History
boosting growth.
Note: GDP = gross domestic product; PPP = purchasing power parity.

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At first, countries with the necessary infrastructure,

skills and market access thrive, such as the USA, China,
Artificial intelligence and economic growth
Singapore and the UK. Inequality between countries
initially widens. While the USA leads and enjoys the most The trend towards greater automation in blue-collar An International Monetary Fund analysis determined
pronounced growth, China continues its role as the principal manufacturing has been well established for more that around 40% of global employment is exposed to
global manufacturer of energy system infrastructure. than 200 years, delivering productivity improvements AI, by replacing some jobs and complementing others.
through higher production rates, optimised production This ranges from 60% in advanced economies to 40%
The rest of the world does catch up, but not all at once. processes, greater materials efficiency and improved in emerging markets and 26% in low-income countries.
The Surfers benefit from access to markets and data, and product quality. In more recent decades, digitalisation
a different energy system architecture emerges in many has enabled greater automation of white-collar Estimates of the productivity gain from AI range
countries compared with existing legacy systems. There is business processes and in this century, it has widely but are systematically lower for emerging and
still robust industrial growth in the Surfers countries, but transformed consumer purchasing. developing economies than advanced economies.
this is largely on the back of population growth and a shift The USA is likely to gain the most, with its deep
from the current limited demand for services. Adoption of AI is expected to boost global productivity capital markets, high R&D spend, an ability to attract
(GDP per worker), with the benefit likely to outweigh skilled migrants, flexible labour markets, and an
While the Innovation Wins countries reap the biggest the economic cost of labour displacement. These entrepreneurial and innovative culture. Countries like
rewards, lagging economies will see a material change benefits could be important at a time when global China, Sweden and South Korea benefit from their well-
in their economies over time. A middle class emerges that population growth is estimated to have passed its developed and widely accessible digital infrastructure.
aspires to greater wealth, travel and acquisition of material peak, with population declines imminent in some
possessions, although not to the extent seen in Europe and large economies. The impact of AI may result in a period of rising income
the USA in the 20th century. New digital-based products disparity and an increasing digital divide between
also change consumer habits. Previous technological revolutions have boosted growth countries, as the technology permeates sectors
to varying degrees; for example, the different phases and economies.
of the revolution in information and communications
technology raised US annual productivity growth by
between 0.5 and 1.5 percentage points. The impact of
these past technological revolutions has varied across
countries, sectors and time.

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Evolution of energy service demand in Archipelagos across regional archetypes.

Surfers drive future demand in all scenarios.

Standardised energy service demand

Global total in 2024 = 100

250

200
a

a a

150
b
a b
b
a

b
100 b c c
a c
c a c a
b a a

b b
c
50 b b
a c d
a c d a
a d d
c c
d b a
b
c d b b
c c d b d
d d c
d d c
d d d
0
2000 2024 2050 2000 2024 2050 2000 2024 2050 2000 2024 2050 2000 2024 2050
Heavy industry Chemicals Passenger cars Air travel Services

a Innovation Wins b Green Dream c Great Wall of Change d Surfers

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Energy and artificial intelligence

The scenarios explore the difficulties that countries struggle with today to deliver economic growth, preserve their sovereignty and strengthen
their borders, while limiting climate change in an era of technological change and the emergence of artificial intelligence.

Horizon
Long-term environmental security and reaching
net-zero emissions by 2050, while aiming for 1.5°C

Surge
Economic security through
Archipelagos growth and productivity
improvements, with AI
Short-term border and resource technologies reshaping society
security, with self-interest deeply
rooted in the national psyche
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Three security scenarios: Surge

In Surge, AI technologies take root and The trend leads to a more dispersed, electricity-based
energy system in which AI integrates the deployed
usher in a period of stronger economic
modules, although fossil fuel use persists in many industrial
growth. Governments yield to related applications due to cost competitiveness. While electricity
hardware and data security issues as systems maintain regional coherence, decisions on power
the economic benefits meet their more dispatching and demand management become more

immediate needs, but they are confronted decentralised and distributed. Many local smart solutions
emerge, better integrating electricity into local energy use.
with higher energy demand and a
society that transforms more rapidly than Solar PV manufacturing easily exceeds 1 terawatt of
legislative responses can keep pace with. panel production annually by 2030, nearly doubling from
some 600 gigawatts in 2025. The revolution in battery
AI technologies that are emerging today become core production for transport extends to modular grid battery
foundation elements of global IT infrastructure throughout units. This leads to the rapid deployment of combined solar
the 2030s, with rapid innovation in the sector leading to PV and battery arrays.
disruptive change. The energy system shifts more rapidly
towards production of components as modules which are In the 2040s, the small modular nuclear reactor (SMR)
then assembled “Lego-style” in the field, as is currently the comes of age, with rapid production of 25‒200 megawatt
case with solar photovoltaic (PV). This marks a shift away units. These become popular in high energy intensity
from large one-off bespoke projects. operations, such as for very large data centres, industrial
electric furnaces and even ships. A new era of commercial
The trend towards modular construction expands rapidly for marine propulsion begins to emerge.
solar PV, power grid batteries, hydrogen electrolysers, heat
pumps and, in the 2040s, direct air capture (DAC) units
which remove CO2 from the atmosphere. Smaller industrial
electric furnaces are similarly built, as are the various units
required for electricity distribution and larger 3D printers
for medium-sized manufacturers. Production on this scale
brings significant cost reductions.

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Modular components for energy production and The trend marks a new start for many countries, with Given its heavy industry base, China continues its role
manufacturing in combination with AI give rise to the the rapid emergence of a middle-income population in as the principal global manufacturer of energy system
emergence of new manufacturing and production in many some locations, supported by the new opportunities and infrastructure. While India, Europe and the USA attempt to
lesser developed economies, which provides growth refreshed governance structures. While industries such as match the scale, China remains dominant in modular system
and opportunity. Small to medium enterprises flourish cement production, mining and smelting remain important production and the processing of minerals and chemicals
throughout Africa as towns and even villages secure and grow as infrastructure is built, the development of a required for such production.
investment for local manufacturing, which in turn improves large heavy industry sector as seen in China in the 1990s
local and national governance. and 2000s is not repeated on the same scale. But services
and light industry flourish.

Electrification of final energy in Surge by sector Global end-use* energy demand for liquid and gaseous fuels in Surge
Share of final energy as electricity, % 120 90
e
d
c c
100% 75

Final energy, mboe/day

e

Intensity, g CO2 / MJ
c b d
b c
d
80 60
80% b b e
d
c
45
60% b
a
e 40 30
a a
a
40% c
a
a
15

20%
b 0 0
2010 2024 2040 2050 2060
0% a Oil products b Natural gas c Ethanol and biodiesel
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 (incl. LNG, biofuels)
d SAF and advanced e Hydrogen Overall intensity
a Space heating b Marine c Road freight biodiesel fuels (right axis)**
d Passenger cars e Heavy industry * Energy industry use and chemicals excluded. ** Full life-cycle emissions, including production and use.
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In Surge, a new technocratic era emerges, with AI New conducting materials help usher in faster electrification Direct air capture becomes a winning technology with total
benefitting from quantum advantage in the 2030s (the through cost reduction and the lessening of material deployment removing 1 gigatonne of CO2 per year by the
point at which a quantum computing system solves constraints. Advanced biofuels rapidly replace jet fuel in mid-2050s. The accelerated shift to electricity and the rapid
problems outside the reach of classical algorithms). This aviation, and electrochemistry developments push battery deployment of modular energy infrastructure reduces global
delivers advances in basic sciences, accelerating change performance to new heights. CO2 emissions from the early 2030s onwards, increasingly
in the energy system and shifting energy production and so in the 2040s. However, net-zero CO2 emissions is not
management to new entrants from the technology sector. Global technology companies favour renewables and, achieved by 2050 in Surge. By 2060, CO2 emissions have
later, nuclear energy. They are also leaders in carbon fallen by nearly 75% from their 2027 peak, with net-zero
management as a result of their huge demand for electricity CO2 emissions finally achieved in 2080. By 2100, the global
and energy services. surface temperature rise in Surge compared with the
period 1850‒1900 is around 2.0°C.

Assembly line production in Surge of small modular direct air capture units in the late 2030s Generated by AI

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Three security scenarios: Archipelagos

In Archipelagos, the security mindset that is very visible today becomes entrenched
worldwide, with national self-interest prevailing. Global sentiment shifts away from
managing emissions towards resource, border and trade security.

Despite this shift, the drive for energy security still includes As a result, global agreements, including pledges to
greater use of low-carbon technologies. These dynamics support the UN Sustainable Development Goals and the
translate into global emissions peaking in the 2020s and Paris Agreement on climate change, fade in prominence.
falling slowly from the mid-2030s. The energy transition
accelerates compared to the early 2020s. Competition between nations spreads into many aspects of
life, and results in multiple technology races – including in
Technology development is hampered by security concerns. relation to new energy technologies. By 2040, a multi-polar
AI initiatives struggle as governments step in and limit data trading world has developed with fierce competition
access across borders and scrutinise technology providers over trade with India and some African and Latin
and choices, but AI nevertheless becomes an effective tool American nations.
for better managing security and the movement of people.
Rather than co-ordinating efforts to address climate change,
Nationalism underpinned by renewed militarism grows, clusters of nations now scramble to secure energy supply
especially in those regions straddling two spheres of and focus on building energy resilience to withstand future
influence. The war over whether Ukraine belonged with shocks. Emissions continue to fall throughout the century,
Europe or with Russia turns out to be a template for any with net zero in sight, but still not achieved, by 2100.
number of other disputed countries and territories. In
many ways, the geopolitical order of the 2030s resembles The global average surface temperature rise is still
the 19th-century world of power alliances more than the increasing late in the century, but is levelling off at around
globalised post-Cold War settlement. 2.2°C compared with 1850‒1900 as emissions close
in on net zero.

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Three security scenarios: Horizon

Horizon is a normative scenario, in This happens as the need to deliver low-carbon energy
infrastructure takes on an urgency of its own, as energy
that specific targets are incorporated to
security and price concerns continue. The energy system
reach net-zero CO2 emissions by 2050 rapidly transforms. Following a much-delayed agreement
and deliver a global average surface on Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, a carbon removals
temperature rise below 1.5°C by 2100. industry is quickly established based on natural removals
and carbon capture and storage. After 2040, systems that
There are visible signs of a rapid energy transition in 2025, remove CO2 from the atmosphere (direct air carbon capture
but progress is far from uniform across all sectors. Solar and storage or DACCS) become commercially viable.
photovoltaic is now heading towards 1 terawatt of new
capacity each year before 2030, and this stands out as the Horizon features a period in which the global average
main success story of the progress required to deliver the temperature rise is more than 1.5°C warmer than pre-
targets underpinning Horizon. industrial levels, given the proximity to that goal in 2024.
The world goes on to bring this back below 1.5°C by 2075
As seen in the early 2020s, delivering large emission and then to around 1.2‒1.3°C by the end of the century.
reductions in support of the Paris Agreement hasn’t The Horizon story implies that actions to prevent any
happened. Rather, nations cling to archetype behaviours, breach of 1.5°C would need to be even greater than the
driven by energy price and supply concerns. But change already substantial measures laid out in the scenario, and
must happen in the immediate future for emissions to fall therefore may not be technically feasible.
fast enough to reach net zero by 2050. In Horizon,
citizens themselves start to push for change within their own
countries and rapidly adopt new technologies to deliver
environmental security. Politicians follow and adopt climate
friendly policies to secure support, especially among the
young. Quickly, these policies become national priorities,
and success in fulfilling their aims becomes a measure
of national power. A comprehensive policy framework
emerges, and nationally determined contributions submitted
under the auspices of the Paris Agreement are reported to
be on track for net zero in 2050 by the UN Environment
Programme in its 2030 annual report.

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Changes to the energy system

The three scenarios recognise the With GDP in Surge rising faster than in Horizon and In Archipelagos, continued use of
Archipelagos, final energy demand by 2050 is more than domestic coal to meet national energy
current global dependency on oil, gas
800 exajoules (EJ), compared with 655 EJ in 2024. Energy needs results in more immediate climate
and coal for energy needs, at nearly demand comes from both the expansion of AI itself (servers, action being sidelined, even as the
80% of primary energy. This has been data transmission, learning systems and generative AI) energy transition progresses. Technology
the case for many decades. But a point and, more importantly, AI-induced economic growth and pathways such as direct air capture become nearer-term

of inflection is emerging as renewable electrification. In Surge, AI-related energy demand reaches casualties and growth in carbon capture and storage for
5,000 terawatt-hours or 20 EJ for IT infrastructure in 2050.
1
industry is weak. Archipelagos sees the highest fossil fuel
energy technologies reach scale, with
That is five times bigger than current IT infrastructure energy use in 2050, and meeting this demand requires investment.
fossil fuels losing market share over time. use and 8% of Surge electricity demand in 2050. While activists have little appetite for further oil and
A second point of inflection is also gas use, a period of higher inflation leads to favourable
The private sector plays a large role in shaping the energy
developing, notably an acceleration in changes in government policy regarding production. As
system through modular component production of energy investments are made, the prospect of a global temperature
the uptake of electricity in final energy
infrastructure, rapid conversion of manufacturing to outcome well below 2°C vanishes, let alone hopes of
and therefore a declining market share electrification and a late but important trend in managing 1.5°C. This leads to some unrest and the prospect of the
for liquid and gaseous fuels. CO2 emissions. Energy system design and implementation early, and possibly forced, closure of fossil-fuel assets
increasingly shifts away from early 21st century incumbent later in the century as solar, wind and hydrogen begin to
In Surge, the private sector takes the energy companies towards the global technology dominate. Net-zero emissions comes late, and the process
lead on energy and economic growth behemoths. Net-zero emissions are achieved in 2080 and of getting there is painful, with society split and some
as AI technologies reshape the global the world is able to limit warming to 2°C. investments ultimately failing.
economy. Surge sees both higher oil and
gas demand in the shorter term and higher
energy demand overall as economic growth picks up. This
means that Surge offers relative resilience for oil and gas
production, not because of slower development or uptake
of new energy technologies, but simply because of more
buoyant economic growth driving overall energy demand.
Although new energy infrastructure appears rapidly, Generated by AI
demand is such that existing energy production and systems
are retained for longer.

This is a Shell scenario assumption based on current trends and the expectation of significant efficiency gains within hardware and software.
1

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In Horizon, the very near-term resilience After 2030, Horizon brings society rapidly to net-zero They also force through the construction of wind
of fossil fuels increases greenhouse gas emissions, and the scenario sets out the major interventions turbines and power lines in places where many citizens
emissions and results in an overshoot of in the energy system required from policymakers to achieve do not wish to see them, such as sites of natural beauty.
1.5°C. In time, this overshoot is balanced that outcome. This includes the early retirement of some A major effort to capture and store carbon dioxide is a
out with greater action to remove fossil-fuel assets, high carbon prices, the rapid introduction feature of Horizon, including both nature-based and
emissions from the atmosphere, and by 2100 and scaling up of early-stage technologies and significant technical solutions.
the global average surface temperature rise is well energy conservation through efficiency and even energy
below 1.5°C. austerity. Governments are forced to limit societal choices,
such as restricting the selling of internal combustion engine
vehicles and dissuading excessive meat consumption.

Share of fossil fuels in primary energy in three scenarios Annual geological storage of CO2 in three scenarios
Share in primary energy, % Gt CO2 stored per year
90% 12

80%
10
70%

60% 8

50%
6
40%

30% 4

20%
2
10%

0% 0
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 2020 2040 2060 2080
Surge Archipelagos Horizon History Surge Archipelagos Horizon History

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Energy demand
In all three scenarios, there is upward pressure on energy In the 2050s, nearly half of global energy demand comes Importantly, over the same time frame, access to energy
demand. Efficiency is key to limiting the growth in overall from Surfers, with relatively little change elsewhere. By services become widespread. As a result, energy
energy demand, with electrification, insulating buildings 2100, Surfers dominate global energy needs, with all demand more than quadruples for this group by the
and behaviour change all contributing. In Surge, energy growth in demand coming from that group of countries. end of the century.
demand rises by a quarter on the back of global economic
growth and demand for AI services. By contrast there is The Rising Surfers see the fastest growth in energy
little change in Horizon where imposed change, high demand. In the scenarios, the population of this group of
carbon prices and mandated efficiency improvements such countries increases from 2.2 billion in 2020 to 4.7 billion
as building retrofits are important in limiting energy use. in 2100.

World primary energy demand in three scenarios World final energy demand in Surge by country archetype
Primary energy, EJ per year Final energy, EJ per year
900 600

800 e
500 e e
700
e
600 400 d
d
500 d
d
300
400 e
c
d c
300 200
c
c c
200 b b b
b
b
100 100
a a a a a
0
0
2000 2024 2040 2060 2040 2060 2040 2060 2000 2024 2040 2060 2100
History Horizon Archipelagos Surge a Innovation Wins b Green Dream c Great Wall of Change

Fossil fuels Nuclear Renewables d Surfers (Emergent) e Surfers (Rising)

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A shift in the north‒south balance of energy use also Additionally cooling needs are naturally aligned with The rapid large-scale deployment of solar PV also gives
emerges as the Surfers make increasing use of solar sunshine, making for an efficient system with much less rise to lifestyle benefits in many developing countries,
photovoltaic (PV) technology, particularly in Surge. seasonal variation than in northern regions like Europe. with a visible convergence of the global energy and
This gives rise to rapid development over the course of the development indices over the next 50 years (towards 0.9 in
Solar PV becomes very beneficial for equatorial regions century – faster than might be the case for fossil fuels. By the UN Human Development Index at about 75 gigajoules
where there is around 12 hours of sunlight every day of the 2080 the global final energy demand profile has noticeably per person). Wealthier economies maintain their energy
year. Combined with batteries, this creates an efficient daily shifted south as a result. service levels but energy demand falls with efficiency gains.
cycle of charge and discharge. Developing economies trend towards greater access to
energy services, but on a lower energy pathway than that
followed by other economies in years gone by.

Shifting supply and demand in Surge Energy consumption supports a better life
Solar final energy by latitude Final energy by latitude Electrification and efficiency lower how much energy is needed

60° North
Human development index
Germany
1.0 UK USA

0.9

Brazil Saudi Arabia

0.8
Equator China
0.7
India

0.6
Tanzania
0.5
DR Congo

60° South 0.4

0 50 100 150 200
0 100 200 0 100 200
Final consumption per person, GJ per year
EJ per year (as electricity) EJ per year (final energy) Surfers (Rising) Surfers (Emergent) Great Wall of Change Innovation Wins
2025 2080 Green Dream Countries 2024 History (1990-2024) Surge (2025-2080)

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Future oil demand

In the three scenarios the electrification of road transport Three key growth sectors for oil — marine fuel, aviation fuel In Surge and Archipelagos, some 40% of oil production
is the main reason for the world reaching peak oil demand, and petrochemicals — emerge over the next 25 years in in 2040 will be from new fields not currently producing.
with a growing supply of low-carbon fuels also contributing Surge and Archipelagos, and in the case of Horizon, Where practical, production from existing fields is
to the subsequent decline of oil over the ensuing decades. show a flat demand future. Although considerable efforts also bolstered with enhanced oil recovery techniques,
Demand for oil continues into the 22nd century, although in are made to find alternatives, overall demand growth in augmented by AI.
Horizon oil is used solely for petrochemicals by 2100. these three sectors, as well as limits to the rate at which
suitable lower-carbon fuels achieve scale, means that net oil Surge will require significant new production to meet
demand remains robust in these sectors. Even an eventual continued oil demand. The major resource holders of
decline in oil and LNG shipping is offset by growth in OPEC and Russia (OPEC+) will continue to rely on their
mineral and manufactured goods shipments. substantial existing resource base, supplemented by
World oil demand in three scenarios
production from new conventional fields. For the rest of the
(hard-to-abate sectors shown are aviation, marine and
petrochemical feedstock) A feature of oil production is that individual field output world, there will be a significant contribution of new supply
Demand, million barrels per day declines, sometimes quite rapidly. Given a typical decline from unconventionals, particularly shale in the USA, which
rate of around 5% per year for existing fields, continuing benefits from AI-enabled improvements in the supply chain
120
demand for oil will require production from new fields in all and drilling optimisation to reduce costs and unlock
three scenarios to at least 2040. new resources.
100

80

60 Oil supply in 2040 and the share of production from new fields
Supply, million barrels per day
40
120
100
20 80
60
40
0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 20
0
Hard-to-abate sectors Surge Surge Archipelagos Horizon Surge Archipelagos Horizon Surge Archipelagos Horizon

Archipelagos Horizon Global OPEC+ Rest of world

Existing fields New conventional fields New unconventional fields
Total History (shale, oil sands, kerogen)

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The future for natural gas

The Surge scenario sees robust medium-term demand for Archipelagos sees relatively flat demand for gas through In 2024, about 14% of natural gas production came
natural gas. It reaches around 4,500 billion cubic metres to 2040, as countries favour domestic resources such as as a by-product of wells primarily targeting oil. As the
(bcm) per year in the mid-2030s, driven by demand in coal and biomass. Because the energy transition is slower in dynamics of oil and gas demand vary in the three scenarios,
power, industry and chemicals, particularly in Asia, but Archipelagos, gas demand declines the least of the three particularly with some countries seeking to maintain high oil
also in Africa and India. By contrast, OECD gas demand scenarios, still at 2,000 bcm per year in 2080. production in an otherwise declining market, associated gas
is in decline after 2030. With coal decreasing across Asia may become more readily available in certain parts of the
before 2030, natural gas takes on a transition role in the In Horizon, natural gas demand peaks in the very near world such as North America, keeping gas affordable for
scenario for Asia until around 2045, when renewables term as the energy transition quickly accelerates to meet longer but also reducing the incentive to invest in new
and nuclear power outstrip demand growth. The global net-zero emissions by 2050. gas wells.
decline in natural gas demand is steep after 2045, falling
by half from its peak in just 20 years.

Global natural gas demand in three scenarios Regional natural gas demand in Surge
Bcm per year Cubic metres per capita
5,000 1,500

4,000

1,000
3,000

2,000
500

1,000

0 0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Surge Archipelagos Horizon History Africa Other Asia India LatAm-MidEast-Eurasia China OECD
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LNG in three scenarios

In all three scenarios, liquefied natural gas (LNG) shows
significant growth in the near term, fuelled by ongoing projects Global liquefied natural gas (LNG) demand
in Qatar and the USA, reaching around 550 million tonnes per in three scenarios
year (mtpa) by the end of the decade. Divergence between the Million tonnes per year
scenarios is a function of project timelines up until about 2030, 800
but after that the scenarios diverge significantly as the different
scenario drivers take hold.
700

Surge envisions growing demand for natural gas throughout the 2030s, as developing
economies seek to use as many different types of energy as possible to meet their increasing
600
needs. Without major international pipelines, LNG supply continues to grow, reaching 700
mtpa, with most new projects located in North America, some of which will involve new field
production and new LNG facilities. LNG’s market share of overall global gas demand reaches 500
around 25% by 2050, up from around 14% in 2024.

Archipelagos presents a more prolonged use of gas, but peak demand is more modest 400
than in Surge. A heightened focus on energy security is evident in different ways: the EU
continues to import LNG from the USA to offset the loss of Russian pipeline production, while
300
China relies on gas imports from Central Asia and domestic production to moderate its LNG
demand. The net effect is a well-balanced and stable LNG market throughout the 2030s,
plateauing at around 600 mpta.
200

In Horizon, the global decline in gas demand that begins in the 2020s as a normative
requirement for net-zero emissions in 2050, starts to affect LNG, with demand peaking in the 100
early 2030s. This results in existing infrastructure operating at low utilisation rates as demand
falls faster than the natural decline rate of the assets.
0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Surge Archipelagos Horizon History

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Low-carbon fuels
Biofuels have been part of the energy system for decades, The role of low-carbon fuels is mixed in the 2030s in Surge, In Archipelagos, which has a focus on national energy
but largely for reasons of energy security due to domestic with a number of technologies jostling for position. security, biofuels and hydrogen both feature, but with
production. Brazil is an excellent example. far less emphasis on low-carbon production pathways.
The road freight sector follows passenger road transport Even in 2060, there is heavy reliance on fossil fuels as
But as concerns over carbon emissions from fossil fuels have and heads towards electrification, albeit with some liquid a source of hydrogen, with little of it paired with carbon
increased, the importance of biofuels and more recently fuel use continuing for many decades. Efforts to use capture and storage. Direct air capture doesn’t emerge
hydrogen produced by water electrolysis using renewable hydrogen fuel cells flounder. After two decades of mixed in this scenario, which also means that the synthetic fuel
electricity (so-called green hydrogen) or from natural gas progress in shipping, the sector shifts rapidly to nuclear market never materialises.
with carbon capture and storage has risen in prominence. after 2050 as small modular reactors commercialise.
Renewable hydrogen is also seen as a precursor for Aviation makes use of the booming direct air capture
ammonia and very low-carbon synthetic fuels. market to shift towards synthetic fuels, although this only
becomes pronounced in the second half of the century, with
Low-carbon fuels feature in all three scenarios, but the bio-based sustainable aviation fuels being key until 2050.
production pathways and uses vary.

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Reading the Sankey charts

The evolution of the global low-carbon fuel story is presented They should be viewed from left to right, as that feedstock
as a series of Sankey charts. All figures are shown in millions of transforms into an energy source and is then used in a particular
barrels of oil per day equivalent (Mboe/d). The charts show the sector on the far right. Some of the original available energy is
originating feedstock on the left, for example “Farm crops”. consumed within the conversion process, shown as terminating
flows labelled “process energy” or “production losses”.

Global low-carbon fuel production as final energy in 2024, Mboe/d

Electricity
0.1 Trucks
0.8

Liquid fuels
2.6

Cars
1.7

Farm crops Biofuel production

6.7 6.6

Aviation
0.1

Biofuel process energy

4.0

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Global low-carbon fuel production as final energy in Archipelagos in 2060, Mboe/d

Industry
Fossil fuels
3.2
6.7

Fossil with CCS Buildings

0.2 1.2
Hydrogen production
Nuclear Hydrogen losses
1.3 16.6 9.0

Renewable
Electricity
electricity
10.7 10.8
Electricity
production losses Trucks
2.4 4.1

Marine
1.5
Liquid fuels Aviation
7.4 3.9
Farm crops Cars
17.1 Biofuel production 0.8
Cellulosic materials 18.6
Chemicals
10.7 Biofuel process energy
0.3
11.2

Waste
1.6

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Global low-carbon fuel production as final energy in Surge in 2060, Mboe/d

Fossil fuels
1.0

Fossil with CCS

2.2 Industry
5.6
Nuclear
1.0
Hydrogen
15.8 Hydrogen production losses
7.7
Renewable
electricity Electricity
15.5 15.7
Fuel synthesis
Electricity
production losses 2.0
4.1
Marine
Synthesis losses 1.1
0.4
Biofuel process energy Trucks
Farm crops 11.0 2.1
17.0 Biofuel production Cars
Cellulosic materials
18.3 0.7
Liquid fuels
10.4 8.9
Aviation
5.2
Waste
1.5 Chemicals
0.3

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In Horizon, there is rapid early growth The shift from liquid fuels in passenger vehicles means that Renewable hydrogen also plays an important role in
ethanol plays a new role in the market, both as a chemical Horizon, providing a solution for heavy-duty road freight,
in liquid biofuels, such as sustainable
feedstock and for upgrading to aviation fuel. as a fuel for ships (either in fuel cells or as ammonia) and
aviation fuel, mostly to replace oil in later for planes, but also for industrial applications such as
hard-to-decarbonise transport. As direct air capture matures and hydrogen electrolysis iron ore smelting. By 2060, nearly half of the smelters in the
costs decline, synthetic liquid fuels emerge in the 2040s. world run on hydrogen in Horizon.

Global low-carbon fuel production as final energy in Horizon in 2060, Mboe/d

Fossil fuels 0.1 Industry

Fossil with CCS 1.4 10.0
Nuclear Trucks
6.3 8.7
Marine
5.0
Buildings
Hydrogen 0.4
51.3
Hydrogen production losses
Renewable Electricity 26.8
electricity 56.7
56.6

Electricity Fuel synthesis

production losses 2.7
13.2 Liquid fuels
Aviation
8.0
11.9
Chemicals
Farm crops 1.3
22.1 Cellulosic materials Synthesis losses Other transport
18.0 Biofuel production 0.5 0.3
24.2
Biofuel process energy
Waste 14.5
2.2

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The rise of renewables

The energy system is at a renewables turning point.

For solar photovoltaic alone, the world is already adding Global solar and wind deployed Global grid-scale battery storage
more than 600 gigawatts (GW) of capacity per year,
capacity
delivering some 700 terawatt-hours of electricity.
Total terawatts deployed globally Terawatt-hours of storage
In Archipelagos, global solar PV panel deployment stays
45 90
at about the current level for a decade as trade sanctions
limit the panel supply from China, but in Horizon and 40 80
Surge there is rapid growth to 1,400 GW and 1,200 GW
per year respectively by the early 2040s. 35 70

In Surge, the combination of increasing battery production 30 60

and AI grid optimisation, including the use of battery
storage in parked electric vehicles, improves the utilisation 25 50
of solar capacity, further cementing its position in the
energy mix. Solar is so dominant in the scenario that 20 40

wind, while remaining important, is surpassed relative

15 30
to Horizon.

10 20
In all scenarios, coal stops growing as a source of electricity
before 2030, with natural gas following by 2035. After
5 10
these dates there is no further net addition of generation
from these energy sources. 0 0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Surge Archipelagos Horizon History Surge Archipelagos Horizon History

Wind Solar
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Electrification in final energy

Electrification is critical to achieving net-zero emissions. The In Surge and Horizon, the increase is 10 percentage Much greater use of electricity will involve a substantial
major energy system shift in the three scenarios is the rise of points every 10 years. This compares with a century-long increase in the demand for certain minerals. Examples
electricity in the final energy mix. There is a major change historical trend closer to two percentage points per decade. are copper, nickel, lithium and cobalt. These are needed
in the role of electricity, starting in the late 2020s in Surge for critical components within the emerging technologies
and Archipelagos, and even earlier in Horizon due to The electrification of passenger road transport kick- underpinning the transformation. This could place significant
the 2050 timeline for net-zero CO2 emissions. starts the shift, followed by residential and commercial pressure on the mining industry, where the current pace of
electrification. In Surge, electrification eventually spreads growth would need to at least double to fulfil demand over
The scenarios carry unprecedented change, with electricity to all forms of road transport, displacing technologies such the next 20 years.
growing at more than five percentage points of final energy as hydrogen fuel cells for large trucks.
market share each decade in Archipelagos. However, in Surge, there is the prospect of AI-led advances
in material science providing potential alternatives for some
minerals and battery chemistries.

The pace of electrification of final energy

Share of final energy
Electrification of road transport
60%
e Share of final energy
cad
r de
pe 100%
50% -pt
~10%
g e:
Sur
nd de
on
a eca 80%
40% r iz tp er d
Ho %-p
s: ~5
lago
hipe
Arc 60%
30%
ade
er dec
y: ~2%-pt p
Histor 40%
20%

20%
10%

0%
0%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Surge Archipelagos Horizon History
Surge Archipelagos Horizon History
Trucks Cars
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A nuclear renaissance?
Such was the hope for nuclear power in the mid-20th Neither Archipelagos nor Surge see a shorter-term
century that the then-Chairman of the US Atomic Energy nuclear resurgence, with the technology simply maintaining
Commission, Lewis Strauss, claimed in a 1954 speech that its role as older facilities are closed and new ones are built,
“Our children will enjoy in their homes electrical energy too with a resulting geographical shift in nuclear towards Asia.
cheap to meter”. A different path emerged, and although
electricity has become globally ubiquitous, nuclear power In Horizon, nuclear sets off on a new growth trajectory,
has not. This changes in the three scenarios. driven by the need for a rapid transition away from fossil
fuels. Even with older facilities in the USA and Europe
In Surge, the small modular reactor (SMR) comes into the reaching end-of-life, the global portfolio expands, in part
picture in the 2030s as major AI technology companies supported by the emergence of the SMR, but also by
fund development, seeking new energy solutions for very major new projects in India and China.
large data centres. The technology matures quickly and
AI itself helps solve early issues. SMR use is much broader
than data centres, with assembly-line style production
bringing down costs, leading to a near plug-and-play
nuclear customer experience in the 2040s. In the late-
2040s, after years of stop‒start progress in alternative
marine fuels, a major Chinese shipping company takes
delivery of five SMR container ships, each with twin 30
megawatt reactors. These are put into service in 2050 on
well-established routes from Shanghai to the US West Coast
and to Rotterdam in the Netherlands. Following a successful
start, the technology becomes established throughout the
industry, to the extent that by 2090, all large vessels have
SMR propulsion.

Generated by AI

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Nuclear capacity by decade of construction in Surge Nuclear power use by sector in Surge
Installed capacity, GW Nuclear power, EJ per year
1,200 60
p

o
1,000
50

800

m 40

600
l

h
30
i j k
g
400 f
e

d 20
200

0 a b 10
1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

a 1950s b 1960s c 1970s d 1980s

0
e 1990s f 2000s g 2010s h 2020s
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070
i 2030s j 2040s k 2050s l 2060s
History Horizon Archipelagos
m 2070s n 2080s o 2090s p 2100s
Electricity Hydrogen Ships

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Carbon management and emissions

In 2021, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
reported that if the world is to limit global warming to 1.5°C,
Global anthropogenic CO2 emissions in three scenarios
its carbon budget — the cumulative CO2 emissions for a given
Gt CO2 per year
temperature outcome — is 500 gigatonnes (Gt).
50

This is based on a starting point of January 1, 2020, and gives a 50% likelihood of limiting
global warming to 1.5°C. By the end of 2024, around 200 Gt of this budget had been used,
leaving 300 Gt. Annual global emissions were more than 40 Gt of CO2 in 2024, and could 40
be at around the same level in 2025. This means that managing overall emissions within the
300 Gt budget left at the start of 2025 is now a near-impossible task. With warmer El Niño
conditions in the Pacific the world has also seen its first 1.5°C year in 2024, although this is a 30
temporary peak.

Overshoot appears almost inevitable, even in a rapid transition. In agreeing to the Glasgow
20
Climate Pact of 2021, countries pledged to reduce “global carbon dioxide emissions by 45%
by 2030 relative to the 2010 level”. But given the emissions since COP26 in Glasgow, the
world will not achieve this. Horizon sees a reduction to around 35 Gt CO2 in 2030, which
10
is less than a 10% decline from 2010, but reaching 45% by 2038.

In Surge and Archipelagos, CO2 emissions peak in the late 2020s at more than 10%
above 2010 levels, reaching a 45% reduction by 2050 in Surge and in the late 2050s in 0

Archipelagos. Net-zero emissions is reached in Surge in 2080 and in Archipelagos early

in the 22nd century. Although the innovation boost in Surge leads to more energy demand
growth than in Archipelagos, that same innovation boost facilitates more rapid growth of -10

low-carbon energy over fossil energy and the development of direct air capture of CO2. This
gathering pace for low-carbon energy production is the crucial reason why Surge sees a
peak in emissions earlier than Archipelagos and, subsequently, a much earlier realisation of -20
net-zero emissions. Horizon achieves net-zero CO2 emissions by design in 2050. 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Surge Archipelagos Horizon History

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Global sources and sinks of anthropogenic

2024
carbon (as CO2) in 2024
Positive emissions of 42.1 Gt CO2 per year

3.8 Gt 1.9 Gt 36.2 Gt 4.2 Gt

Land-use Net process CO2 Net fossil Non-energy use

change (e.g., cement) (e.g., plastics)

2.9 Gt Photosynthesis Bioenergy

use
39.4 Gt
extracted
(in CO2 terms)

CCS BECCS
Key:
45 Mt 1 Mt
Gt – gigatonnes
Mt – million tonnes
CCS – carbon capture and storage
BECCS – bioenergy with carbon capture and storage

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The 2025 Energy Security Scenarios

After society exceeds its remaining 1.5°C carbon budget of Surge is a world where greenhouse By the late 2030s, DAC clusters are appearing in many
300 Gt of cumulative emissions, it must balance the excess gas emissions, atmospheric CO2 levels remote locations where geological storage of CO2 is
later in the century to return to that level of warming. It can and climate change remain high on available and solar energy, for powering the capture units,
do this by removing CO2 from the atmosphere and storing the international agenda, but where is plentiful. The Middle East leads. By 2050, global direct
it geologically. This is known as an overshoot pathway and governments lean more towards private air carbon capture and storage (DACCS) is removing
Horizon is a 1.5°C overshoot scenario. The recognition sector solutions and market-driven voluntary outcomes. more than 500 Mt of CO2 from the atmosphere each year,
by society of the role of CCS and carbon removal from This becomes a successful strategy, with the demands of surpassing 1.5 Gt around 2060.
the atmosphere is a critical determinant of the outcome end-product consumers and other companies within supply
of Horizon. The need for large-scale removal capacity is chains encouraging emitting companies to actively manage The AI technology seen in Surge also delivers a
required by Horizon for managing atmospheric CO2 levels their carbon footprints. In the late 2020s, various incentive comprehensive and speedy global approach to measuring
and dealing with an overshoot of the carbon budget. structures are put in place by numerous governments to emissions and identifying sources of methane through
encourage carbon management in the private sector. remote satellite sensing.
If the Surfers maintain their current modest per capita This is mainly done to avoid the imposition of carbon
CO2 footprint, their expected population growth alone See the diagram above on page 38
border adjustments and compete with the US
could take the world beyond 1.5°C by 2050, and to government incentives.
2°C warming by 2100. In any future that seeks to limit
surface temperature warming, the Surfers will need to Fossil fuels remain a core part of the energy system
decarbonise from 2020 levels, even as they develop their for many decades and governments, largely pushed
economies. by the private sector, embrace the need for carbon
removals. Investment in natural carbon removals grows
Surge and Archipelagos paint quite different pictures and forest protection and regeneration improve
of future carbon management, whereas Horizon, with substantially throughout the world. With the expectation
its stringent climate goals, pursues every possible avenue of change within industrial processes as electrification takes
available. The starting point is the global carbon emissions hold, there is diminished investment in the direct application
story we saw in 2024. of carbon capture and storage technologies. Instead, direct
air capture (DAC) becomes an appealing alternative given
the declining cost of module production and solar arrays
for power and the thriving trade in voluntary carbon
removal credits.
Generated by AI

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Global sources and sinks of anthropogenic

2060
carbon (as CO2) in Surge
Positive emissions of 11.4 Gt CO2 per year

5 Gt 2.6 Gt 4.9 Gt 11.4 Gt 0.5 Gt 8.2 Gt

Land-use Net process CO2 Synthetic Direct air Net fossil Non-energy use
change (e.g., cement) fuel use capture (e.g., plastics)
5 Gt 16.8 Gt
2.2 Gt 2.3 Gt
8.7
0.3 Gt Gt
0.2 2.1 0.7
Gt Gt Gt
4.2 Gt Photosynthesis Bioenergy
use
21.7 Gt
extracted
(in CO2 terms)

CCS CCS & DACCS BECCS

Key:
0.15 Gt 2.8 Gt 0.2 Gt
Gt – gigatonnes
CCS – carbon capture and storage
BECCS – bioenergy with carbon capture and storage
DACCS - direct air capture with geological storage

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The 2025 Energy Security Scenarios

While Archipelagos features many

aspects of a rapid energy system
transition, there is only modest attention
to carbon management. Other priorities
prevail. By 2060, even with a 30%
reduction in fossil fuel use compared with 2024, net-zero
emissions remains at least 50 years away.

The scenario does see a change in land management and

reforestation efforts are successful, but industrial carbon
management efforts largely fail. The early push to establish
a direct air capture industry succumbs to cost pressures,
and while some progress is made in expanding the use of
CCS, the technology falls far short of its full potential.

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Global sources and sinks of anthropogenic

2060
carbon (as CO2) in Archipelagos
Positive emissions of 19.6 Gt CO2 per year

5 Gt 2.8 Gt 19.6 Gt 0.4 Gt 8.1 Gt

Land-use Net process CO2 Net fossil Non-energy use

change (e.g., cement) (e.g., plastics)
22.8 Gt
5 Gt 2.2 Gt
8.5
0.2 Gt Gt

4 Gt Photosynthesis Bioenergy
use
27.5 Gt
extracted
(in CO2 terms)

CCS CCS BECCS

Key:
0.15 Gt 0.7 Gt 0.2 Gt
Gt – gigatonnes
CCS – carbon capture and storage
BECCS – bioenergy with carbon capture and storage

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Shell Scenarios
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Any analysis which seeks to reach for carbon removal. Carbon trading could be a win-win
net-zero CO2 emissions by 2050, just 25 for global climate and economic development objectives.
years away, must fully embrace the use of Countries like Indonesia and Brazil host some of the
carbon management and carbon removal world’s most important terrestrial and marine ecosystems
technologies and practices. Horizon is for storing carbon.
no exception.
Land-use change
The design of the scenario means a near-term end to
deforestation; the rapid scale-up of CCS in legacy Without a concerted effort to manage the land carbon
industries like cement production; the application of CCS stock, in addition to major energy system changes,
in the burgeoning bioenergy industry (BECCS); the early achieving a plateau in warming and certainly reaching the
expansion of the nascent direct air capture sector; and Paris goal of well below 2°C may not be possible.
a global focus on reforestation, carbon farming through
All the scenarios envisage greater effort to manage the
agricultural reform, and ecosystem protection.
land, for reasons of carbon management but also crucially
Such is the scale of removals in Horizon to reach net to reverse the global decline in biodiversity.
zero by mid-century that by 2060 the world has entered
By 2070 in Horizon, almost all land that humans interact
a prolonged period of net removal of CO2 from the
with is managed to maximise carbon storage. However,
atmosphere, backed by a growing use of direct air capture,
only a fraction of this land is changed from one type of use
significant use of CCS in combination with bioenergy
to another. Carbon management largely comes through
production, and a transformation of land-use practices. Net
improved farming practices and better management of
removal of CO2 from the atmosphere means a faster decline
forests, peatlands and wetlands. Reforestation is the major
in the atmospheric concentration of CO2 than the natural
change of land use after an end to global deforestation by
cycle offers, which in turn causes the global average
2035, and the scenario includes the potential to reforest an
surface temperature to fall.
area up to the size of Mexico: about 200 million hectares.
Delivering negative emissions requires a systematic and
robust policy framework for carbon removal. Global use
of Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, which governs the
trading of carbon credits between nations, is essential

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Global sources and sinks of anthropogenic

2060
carbon (as CO2) in Horizon
Negative emissions of 7.9 Gt CO2 per year, net removal of CO2

6.6 Gt 1.3 Gt net removed

removed
1.2 Gt 0.5 Gt 0.8 Gt 3.2 Gt
6.6 Gt Land-use change
Synthetic Direct air Net fossil Non-energy use
fuel use capture (e.g., plastics)
2.4 Gt
Net process CO2 1.7 Gt
(e.g., cement) 8.7 5.5
0.9 Gt 0.9 Gt Gt Gt
0.3 Gt 1.4 Gt
Photosynthesis Bioenergy
2.8 Gt use
4.3 Gt

CCS CCS & DACCS BECCS

Key:
1 Gt 5.7 Gt 9.5 Gt 2.3 Gt
Gt – gigatonnes extracted
CCS – carbon capture and storage
BECCS – bioenergy with carbon capture and storage
(in CO2 terms)
DACCS - direct air capture with geological storage

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Policy, the emissions gap and temperature

A key consideration regarding the future policy landscape With expertise in supply chain management, they opt more The losing technologies in Archipelagos are those
is to recognise there is no scenario where climate is off the for modular infrastructure which can be easily added to and related to carbon emissions management, which have
agenda. The changes that are becoming apparent in global expanded. Solar photovoltaic, batteries, heat pumps and only modest political support when other priorities and
weather patterns as the climate shifts give rise to growing hydrogen electrolysers all benefit from the push. spending commitments are present. Issues relating to
pressures on policymakers and society to respond. And they trade and security hamper the development of carbon
do so in all three scenarios, but in different ways. With climate change higher on the consumer agenda, markets. Under the auspices of a weakened United Nations
the same companies turn their attention to carbon and UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, the
In Surge, a richer world is more attuned management, opting for nature-based solutions and money needed for Rising Surfers to build clean energy
to environmental needs which in turn direct air capture, given the latter’s modular design and infrastructure doesn’t materialise, so coal persists for longer
prompts government policy development. discretionary geographic placement. in many economies.
While governments are instrumental in
seeding technology development and Several large technology companies build their own Climate policies remain in the scenario, but instruments
early-stage demonstration, Surge is a scenario in which energy infrastructure production facilities, mimicking such as carbon pricing are not applied at the levels needed
commercial interests in the energy transition are at the the gigafactory model developed by Tesla in the 2010s. to usher in rapid change. Rather, the focus is on domestic
forefront. But a strong business‒government partnership The transition accelerates rapidly as a result. energy production, although a good portion of this is
is still required to deliver local incentives for infrastructure solar photovoltaic and wind. However, in a world of trade
Within the Archipelagos scenario,
construction, planning permission, international trade of tension, some countries and regions apply carbon border
public and political interest is focused
verified carbon units (such as carbon removal credits) and adjustments, which have an impact on the policy decisions
on more immediate security needs.
underpinning legislation for technologies like small modular of trading partners or force the private sector to implement
This results in support for both additional
nuclear reactors. mitigation actions.
fossil fuel resource development and
The large information technology companies see rapidly rapid deployment of solar photovoltaic and wind. Biofuel Land management practices such as reforestation and
growing energy demand from their own operations, which use expands, but support for more sustainable technologies carbon farming develop, but they largely rely on the
also brings with it an expanding carbon footprint. There are such as cellulosic ethanol is limited. Electric vehicles also voluntary carbon market for funding. While net global
both cost and reputation issues to deal with. This prompts find favour with the public, in part due to the price volatility deforestation is achieved, and by the 2040s land carbon
a significant response, with technology companies pushing of petrol, but also as competition makes the vehicles stocks are again rising, older forests are still subject to
themselves into the energy markets, initially as major buyers more affordable. degradation and loss, but at about a third of the rate
but then as suppliers as they build their own currently seen.
energy infrastructure.

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Horizon illustrates the broad policy • Reduce the length of time it takes to gain permits and
approach required for both a transition planning permission, including for wind, solar, hydro and
away from fossil fuels and the need for nuclear power generation, for the geological storage of
carbon emissions management. The latter CO2 and for expansion in the mining sector to bring a
is essential in the short term for net-zero range of key minerals to market that are essential for
emissions, but critical for the remainder of the century to the transition, such as copper.
correct the overshoot of 1.5°C by removing CO2 from the
atmosphere. The Horizon policy landscape is as follows:
• Create a system for international trade in carbon assets,
such as removals, nature-based credits and various
types of offset.
• Apply carbon pricing widely, through changes in the
taxation system and the implementation of emission cap- • Change land management practices, end deforestation,
and-trade systems. These are applied primarily to power engage with farmers to increase their focus on soil
generation and industrial facilities. carbon and protect ecosystems such as mangroves,
grasslands and wetlands. Large-scale reforestation
• Create clear incentives for renewable energy activities become a priority.
deployment and the use of low-carbon fuels.

• Drive consumers away from incumbent technologies, • Significantly reduce methane emissions, with actions
to eliminate fugitive methane emissions in industry
such as internal combustion vehicles and natural gas
and curtail agricultural methane.
boilers. This may include mandates, scrappage and
replacement incentives or direct grants. • Encourage citizens to change their daily behaviour
regarding travel, waste management and energy use.
• Build a very large-scale carbon capture and storage
industry, including transport infrastructure for CO2.
Establish early-stage demonstration facilities and include
incentives for new technologies such as direct
air capture.

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Meeting the Paris goal

Both Surge and Archipelagos fall short of the Paris goal to
hold the increase in the global average surface temperature to
Global CO2 emissions by sector in Horizon and Surge
well below 2°C compared with pre-industrial levels. However,
at net-zero emissions
mitigation action is sufficient to limit warming to about 2°C in
Emissions, Gt CO2 per year
Surge and 2.2°C in Archipelagos.
50
Surge reaches net-zero emissions in 2080, well before Archipelagos, but 30 years after
Horizon. The largest difference between Surge and Horizon is in carbon management,
with a 10 Gt shortfall in Surge in 2050 due to insufficient CCS deployment and poorer land 40

management practices. However, Surge outpaces Horizon in terms of DACCS deployment,

but this isn’t enough to bridge the gap.
30

Land management in Horizon is comprehensive and includes an early end to deforestation in

the 2030s, which is never fully achieved in Archipelagos or Surge. 20

The pathway comparison also shows that the earlier the achievement of net-zero emissions,
the greater the dependency on CCS and carbon removals. This is because other technologies 10
that remove the need for fossil fuel use haven’t developed and scaled sufficiently in the
time available.
0
In all scenarios in 2100 fossil fuels are still in use, but demand is a fraction of 2025 levels.

In Horizon, fossil fuel demand has reduced to mainly petrochemical use, whereas in -10

Archipelagos and Surge there is still industrial demand and Archipelagos continues to
rely on fossil fuels for heavy transport of all types.
-20
Today (2024) Horizon in 2050 Surge in 2050 Surge in 2080
In Surge, the fossil fuel system is net zero by 2100, with no need for land-based or bioenergy-
sourced carbon removals. A large-scale direct air capture industry has emerged, removing 8 Industry Electricity Transport DACCS Total
billion tonnes of CO2 from the atmosphere each year, although nearly a quarter of this is for Industry CCS Electricity CCS Land-use change Other
fuel synthesis so is emitted again in due course.
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Shell Scenarios
The 2025 Energy Security Scenarios

Global sources and sinks of anthropogenic

carbon (as CO2) in Surge
Negative emissions of 6.7 Gt CO2 per year, net removal of CO2 2100
2.4 Gt 1.6 Gt net removed 2.7 Gt net removed
removed
3 Gt 3.4 Gt
2.4 Gt Land-use change
Synthetic Direct air Non-energy use
Net process CO2 fuel use capture (e.g., plastics)
(e.g., cement)
1.8 Gt 8 Gt
Net fossil
1.2 Gt 16.4 13.7
3.4 Gt 2.4 Gt Gt Gt

3.2 Gt Photosynthesis Bioenergy

use

CCS CCS & DACCS BECCS

Key:
1.1 Gt 6.4 Gt 6.5 Gt 0.3 Gt
Gt – gigatonnes extracted
CCS – carbon capture and storage
BECCS – bioenergy with carbon capture and storage
(in CO2 terms)
DACCS - direct air capture with geological storage

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Shell Scenarios
The 2025 Energy Security Scenarios

Final thoughts
The introduction of Surge into The 2025 Energy Security
Scenarios brings another dimension to the possibilities that Global average surface temperature change in
lie before the world, but also an important finding. three scenarios
Temperature anomaly in °C compared with 1850--1900
The energy transition is now at a tipping point; the questions at hand are not whether society
can reach net-zero CO2 emissions or whether society is able to limit surface temperature 2.5

warming, but how soon will net-zero emissions be realised and just how low might the eventual
temperature plateau be.
2.0
Horizon presents a reference case for meeting the goal of the Paris Agreement, with an
important emphasis on the need for carbon management and the technologies and practices
required. In Archipelagos, with its tensions, trade friction and focus on more immediate
1.5
security issues, the temperature rise is a genuine concern but does not exceed 2.2°C.

Surge illustrates that even in a period of higher economic growth with increased access
to energy services throughout the world, a plausible outcome sees warming limited 1.0

to 2°C by 2100.

The year 2025 marks the start of the Generation Beta demographic for those born in 0.5
the years leading up to 2039. They will grow up in a world of surprising technology
breakthroughs, the likely manned exploration of our solar system, and an increasing focus
on sustainability and global change. Understanding their needs, values and preferences
0.0
will be crucial to determining how they will shape the future of the world they will inherit.

-0.5
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

Surge Archipelagos Horizon

History (observations) History (MIT model)

History = HadCRUT5 (Jan 2025). Scenarios measured as global mean surface temperature
(GMST), modelled by MIT Center for Sustainability Science and Strategy (Jan 2025).

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The 2025 Energy Security Scenarios

Technology timelines in The 2025 Energy Security Scenarios

2025 2035 2045 2055 2065
H2
CO2
Fuel synthesis The end of Renewable Horizon
+
H2 from H2 and liquid fuels hydrogen
CO2 passes in cars – use reaches Primary energy:
Electric planes Cellulosic The Boeing 808-H2 15% fossil fuel
1 million bbl/day EVs prevail 400 Mt
used for short biofuels reach makes its first
per year
regional flights 2 million bbl/d commercial flight

Long-haul
H2 trucks start
using hydrogen H2
CO2 CO2

Hydrogen in 17 TW DACCS begins Renewable hydrogen SAF reaches DAC reaches 41 TW

CO2
trucks reaches solar PV to scale rapidly production exceeds 5 million bbl/d 1 Gt CO2 solar PV
1 million boe/day 100 Mt per year Surge
CCS passes Nuclear shows solid
SAF reaches Fewer than 500 million Primary energy:
1 Gt stored growth, backed by
1 million bbl/d petrol cars remaining 29% fossil fuel
CO2 per year SMR technology
and no new sales
Global IT infrastructure Production of CO2 DACCS Global IT infrastructure 39 TW DAC has
CO2
Primary consumes 1,000+ TWh nuclear SMR reaches 100 Mt consumes 5,000 TWh solar PV scaled to
energy: of electricty ramps up per year of electricity 3 Gt CO2
78% fossil per year
fuels, of
which oil is
38%, gas
28% and
coal 34%

Larger trucks adopt Annual solar Global 17 TW First city centre First nuclear- Global GDP is $50 Global grid Electric planes Renewable
BEV technology module production electricity solar PV all-autonomous powered trillion (PPP 2016) battery used for one hydrogen
approaches 1 TW enters a rapid vehicle system container per year ahead of storage in three production is
growth phase ships Horizon and reaches regional flights 80 Mt per year
Archipelagos 50 TWh

Long-haul trucks CCS passes 100 Mt SAF reaches Hydrogen in trucks The Airbus A400 Archipelagos
start using hydrogen stored CO2 per year 1 million bbl/d 9 TW solar PV reaches 1 million boe/day H2 makes its first 24 TW solar PV Primary energy:
commercial flight
H2
CO2
H2
41% fossil fuel
H2

CO2
The decline of Electric planes Renewable hydrogen Cellulosic After years of slow
liquid fuels for used for short production reaches biofuels reach decline, nuclear is
The nascent DAC industry cars sets in as regional flights 10 Mt per year 2 million bbl/d growing again
collapses as funding dries up EV use grows

CCS – carbon capture and (geological) storage Mt – million tonnes BEV or EV – battery electric vehicle bbl/d – barrels per day (liquid fuels) PPP – purchasing power parity
DAC – direct air capture TW – terawatt SAF – sustainable aviation fuel boe/d – barrels of oil equivalent per day
DACCS – direct air capture and (geological) storage TWh – terawatt-hours GDP – gross domestic product SMR – small modular reactor (nuclear) See the accessibility description 50
Shell Scenarios
The 2025 Energy Security Scenarios

References and acknowledgements

We wish to thank the many people
consulted externally in the development
of The 2025 Energy Security Scenarios.

We would like to recognise the Massachusetts Institute of

Technology (MIT) Center for Sustainability Science and
Strategy (MIT CS3) for assessing the climate impacts of the
three scenarios presented in this publication. MIT modelled
the impact using its Integrated Global System Modelling
framework. Shell makes an annual contribution of $150,000
to MIT CS3. In recognition of a work programme related
to long-term emission scenarios, of which this assessment
is part, Shell has made an additional quid-pro-quo
contribution to MIT CS3 of $50,000.

We also wish to thank the International Energy Agency

(IEA). Our scenario modelling is founded on historical data
from IEA Extended Energy Balances. The work in these
scenarios was prepared by Shell International B.V. and
does not necessarily reflect the views of the IEA.

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Accessibility descriptions
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) compared Electrification of final energy in Surge Share of fossil fuels in primary energy
in the three scenarios by sector in three scenarios
A line chart showing global GDP from 2010 to 2060, in A chart showing electrification of final energy in 5 key A line chart showing the role of fossil energy in the primary
2016 US dollars at purchase power parity, for the three sectors, from 2010 to 2060, in the Surge sector. Space energy mix for the three scenarios. With a percentage
scenarios. Historically, GDP grew from $100 trillion in heating grows from about 10% today to about 50% in historically stable around 80%, all three lines for all
2010 to just under $150 trillion today. In Horizon and 2060. Marine stays 0% until about 2045 and reaches scenarios gradually start their decline in the late 2020s.
Archipelagos, GDP continues to grow to about $360 trillion about 5% in 2060. Road freight grows from 0% today The lines cross 50% in the early 2040s (Horizon), the early
in 2060 and, in Surge, to around $415 trillion. to about 35% in 2060. Passenger cars are about 3% 2050s (Surge) and the early 2060s (Archipelagos). By
electrified today, which grows to about 85% in 2060. 2100, Archipelagos is at 20%, Surge is at 10% and Horizon
Return to page 12 Heavy industry follows a very linear trend of 25% today is at 5%.
to about 50% in 2060.
Evolution of energy service demand Return to page 22
in Archipelagos across regional Return to page 17
Annual geological storage of CO2 in three
archetypes. Surfers drive future demand
Global end-use* energy demand for scenarios
in all scenarios.
liquid and gaseous fuels in Surge
A line chart showing geological storage of CO2 by scenario.
A chart consisting of 5 panels, for the sectors heavy
A bar chart showing demand for liquid and gaseous fuels All three lines start from near-0 today, rising to 1.5, 5.5 and
industry, chemicals, passenger cars, air travel, and
in Surge, for end uses except chemical feedstocks. It shows 10 gigatonnes per year (Gt/y) in Archipelagos, Surge
services. Within each panel, there are 3 bars, for 2000,
bars for 2010, 2024, 2040, 2050 and 2060, coloured and Horizon in 2060.
2024 and 2050. Each bar is made up of 4 parts, for the
by type of fuel. The bars peak in 2040 around 105 million
Surfers archetypes, Great Wall of Change, Green Dream
barrels of oil equivalent per day (Mboe/d). Until then, Return to page 22
and Innovation Wins archetypes. Within each panel, the
about 20% of the bars are natural gas based, and 80% are
height of the bars is standardised such that 2024 = 100.
oil based. After that, other wedges start appearing, with
The height of a bar represents energy services demand
hydrogen and advanced biofuels making up about 10% of
for that sector. In all 5 sectors, there is growth, accross
the 75 Mboe/d in 2060. Diamonds are overlaid to show
archetypes, dominated by Surfers. The slowest grower is
that the average net carbon intensity starts slowly declining
heavy industry, to around 130 units in 2040, and the fastest
after 2040 from 75 g CO2 / MJ down to 65 g in 2060.
grower is air travel, to about 235 units in 2050.

Return to page 17
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World primary energy demand in three Shifting supply and demand in Surge World oil demand in three scenarios
scenarios A world map overlaid with a line chart, where the A line chart showing demand for oil from 2010 to 2060 for
A bar chart with 4 panels, all showing primary energy horizontal axis represents energy and the vertical axis all three scenarios. The lines appear twice, once for total
demand. The first panel has bars showing historical primary represents latitude (the lines are aligned such that the oil and once for the hard-to-abate sectors (aviation, marine
energy demand in 2010 and 2024. The other three zero point coincides with the equator of the world map). and chemicals). Total oil demand is 95 Mboe/d today, and
panels belong to a scenario each, and has bars for 2040 There are two lines for solar final energy (2025 and 2080) peaks just under 105 Mboe/d in the early 2030s in Surge
and 2060. The bars are divided into fossil, nuclear and and two lines for total final energy (2025 and 2080). The and Archipelagos, and then slowly declines to about 70
renewables. The chart shows that primary energy demand 2025 lines show virtually no solar final energy, and a total (Surge) or around 85 (Archipelagos) Mboe/d in 2060.
rises to 2060, but only subtly in Horizon, and strongly in final energy line that peaks around European and North Oil demand in Horizon plateaus between 2025 and 2030,
Surge, from about 650 exajoules (EJ) today to about 800 American latitudes. The 2080 lines show a large demand and then drops to just above 30 Mboe/d in 2060. The
EJ in 2060. The breakdown shows a further penetration of for solar final energy, which peaks around the latitude of three demand lines for the hard-to-abate sectors stay either
nuclear and renewables, from about 15% today to about China, and a large demand for final energy in general, with flat around today’s level of about 25 (Horizon) or climb
80% (Horizon), around 60% (Surge) and around 50% the peak moving down several degrees latitude south. slightly to about 40 (Surge, Archipelagos) in 2060.
(Archipelagos) in 2060.
Return to page 24 Return to page 25
Return to page 23
Energy consumption supports a better life
World final energy demand in Surge by A scatter plot showing the evolution of final energy per
country archetype capita (horizontal axis)and the human development index
(HDI), with 5 colours for each of the 5 archetypes, from
A bar chart with 5 bars showing final energy demand in
1990 to 2080. Green Dream and Innovation wins are
Surge for 2000, 2024, 2040, 2060, 2100 by archetype.
around HDI 0.9 today, and will predominantly move left
Today’s final energy demand is just under 450 EJ, of which
because of energy efficiency. Surfers are between 0.6
about 30% is in Surfers countries. This increases to 580
and 0.7 HDI today, but will move further right into the
EJ in the period 2060 to 2100, of which between 50% and
future (because of access to energy) and pass the 0.8 HDI
60% is in Surfers countries.
threshold. With some imagination, a convergence level of
Return to page 23 75 gigajoules per capita is visible.

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Oil supply in 2040 and the share of Horizon has seen its peak today and declines to about Global low-carbon fuel production as
1,200 bcm in 2060.
production from new fields final energy in 2024, Mboe/d
A bar chart of oil supply consisting of 3 panels: World, Return to page 26 A Sankey chart showing energy flows for hydrogen and
OPEC+, Rest of the World. Each panel consists of 3 bars, renewable liquid hydrocarbons. On the left, it shows the
one for each scenario. And each bar consists of three Regional natural gas demand in Surge inputs for making these fuels. On the right, it shows where
colours, for existing fields, new conventional fields, and new those fuels are used. This chart is for 2024. It shows one
A line chart showing global demand for natural gas
unconventional fields. Total supply is around 100 Mboe/d type of input, which is farm crops. The total input of farm
between 2010 and 2060. Demand was 3,250 billion cubic
in Surge and Archipelagos, and around 70 Mboe/d crops is 6.7 exajoules. Of that, roughly 60% is lost in
metres (bcm) in 2010 and 4,500 bcm in 2025, decreasing
in Horizon. In Surge and Archipelagos, around conversion, and 2.6 Mboe/d is left as final liquid fuel – of
to around 3,500 bcm in 2060. Archipelagos plateaus in
20 Mboe/d come from new conventional fields and 20 which 1.7 Mboe/d is used to fuel cars, 0.8 Mboe/d to fuel
the early 2030s, then declines to slightly more than 3,000
Mboe/d from new unconventional fields. In Horizon, 10 trucks and 0.1 Mboe/d for aviation.
bcm in 2060. Demand in Horizon has already peaked,
Mboe/d come from new fields in total. In the second panel,
declining to around 1,200 bcm in 2060.
OPEC+ delivers 50 Mboe/d from conventional fields, mostly Return to page 29
existing, in all scenarios. The rest of the world delivers Return to page 26
20 Mboe/d or thereabouts are delivered from existing
conventional fields in all scenarios, and in Surge and Global liquefied natural gas (LNG)
Archipelagos, an extra ~25 Mboe/d is deliverd from
demand in three scenarios
new fields.
A line chart showing LNG demand in the three scenarios
Return to page 25 for the period 2010 to 2060. LNG demand increased
from around 200 million tonnes (Mt) in 2010 to slightly
Global natural gas demand in three more than 400 Mt in 2025. In Surge, demand plateaus
scenarios at around 700 Mt between 2035 and 2050, then declines
to just under 600 Mt in 2060. In Archipelagos, demand
A line chart showing demand for natural gas, 2010-2060,
plateaus at around 600 Mt in the period 2030 to 2050,
global. 2010 = 3,250 bcm, today = 4,100 bcm. Surge
then declines to around 500 Mt in 2060. In Horizon,
peaks at 4500 bcm in 2040 and then drops to around
demand peaks at around 535 Mt in 2030, then declines to
3,500 in 2060. Archipelagos plateaus into the early
250 Mt in 2060.
2030, and then declines to just over 3,000 in 2060.
Return to page 27

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Global low-carbon fuel production as The liquid fuels required 17 Mboe/d of farm crops and 2 Wind capacity is much lower than solar capacity in 2060: 8
Mboe/d of hydrogen for fuel synthesis. Hydrogen is used in TW in Surge and 13 TW in Horizon.
final energy in Archipelagos in 2060,
industry. Liquid fuels are primarily used in aviation.
Mboe/d Return to page 33
Return to page 31
A Sankey chart showing energy flows for hydrogen and
renewable liquid hydrocarbons. On the left, it shows
Global grid-scale battery storage
the inputs for making these fuels. On the right, it shows
Global low-carbon fuel production as
A line chart showing global grid-scale battery storage in
where those fuels are used. This chart is for 2060 in the final energy in Horizon in 2060, Mboe/d terawatt-hours (TWh) for the three scenarios in 2060. In
Archipelagos scenario. The main final energy products Archipelagos, storage capacity is around 30 TWh, in
A Sankey chart showing energy flows for hydrogen and
are 7.6 Mboe/d of hydrogen and 7.4 Mboe/d of liquid Horizon about 70 TWh and in Surge about 80 TWh.
renewable liquid hydrocarbons. On the left, it shows the
fuels. The hydrogen is made using about 60% electricity
inputs for making these fuels. On the right, it shows where
and 40% fossil fuels and required 16.6 Mboe/d of inputs. Return to page 33
those fuels are used. This chart is for 2060 in the Horizon
The liquid fuels required 17.1 Mboe/d of farm crops.
scenario. The main final energy products are 24.5 Mboe/d
Hydrogen is predominantly used in industry, buildings and
of hydrogen and 11.9 Mboe/d of liquid fuels. The hydrogen
The pace of electrification of final energy
trucks. Liquid fuels are predominantly used in aviation,
is made almost exclusively from nuclear power and other A line chart showing the percentage of final energy
marine and trucks.
types of electricity as inputs.The liquid fuels required 22.1 delivered by electricity in the three scenarios between 2010
Mboe/d of farm crops and 2.7 Mboe/d of hydrogen for and 2060. Historically, this increased from 18% in 2010 to
Return to page 30
fuel synthesis. Hydrogen is predominantly used in industry, 23% in 2025. In Horizon, Surge and Archipelagos, it
trucks and marine. Liquid fuels are predominantly used in
Global low-carbon fuel productions as increases to 40%, 35% and 29% respectively in 2040 and
aviation and chemical production. to 54%, 52% and 42% respectively in 2060.
final energy in Surge in 2060, Mboe/d
Return to page 32 Return to page 34
A Sankey chart showing energy flows for hydrogen and
renewable liquid hydrocarbons. On the left, it shows the
inputs for making these fuels. On the right, it shows where
Global solar and wind deployed capacity
those fuels are used. This chart is for 2060 in the Surge A line chart showing installed capacity of solar and wind in
scenario. The main final energy products are 8.1 Mboe/d of the three scenarios to 2060. Solar capacity is slightly more
hydrogen and 8.9 Mboe/d of liquid fuels. The hydrogen is than 40 terawatts (TW) in Horizon and slightly less than
made using 80% nuclear and other types of electricity, and 40 TW in Surge in 2060. In Archipelagos, solar capacity
20% fossil fuels, mostly with carbon capture and storage. is 26 TW in 2060.

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Shell Scenarios
The 2025 Energy Security Scenarios

Electrification of road transport Nuclear power use by sector in Surge Global sources and sinks of
A line chart showing the electrification of road An area chart showing total nuclear energy consumption
anthropogenic carbon (as CO2) in 2024
transport between 2010 and 2050. Three lines show the between 2000 and 2070. For the entire period, nuclear A diagram describing the flows of anthropogenic CO2 in
electrification of passenger road trasnport, and three electricity fluctuates around 30 EJ per year. From 2050, 2024. Four flow types are visible, adding up to a total
show the electrification of freight road transport. The two additional wedges open up on top of the electricity of 42.1 Gt of CO2. Land-use change is 3.8 Gt.Industrial
lowest electrification line for passenger road is far above wedge: hydrogen and ships using small modular reactors. process emissions 1.9 Gt. Fossil CO2 39.4 Gt, of which 45
the highest electrification line for freight road. While Mt is not emitted but stored through CCS and an additional
electrification in passenger road transport is around 50% Return to page 36
2.9 Gt is not emitted but used for chemicals. There is 4.2 Gt
in Archipelagos, 55% in Surge and 85% in Horizon CO2 from bioenergy use – 1 Mt of which is stored through
in 2050, in freight road transport it is around 10% in Global anthropogenic CO2 emissions in CCS, and the remainder being re-absorbed by crops,
Archipelagos and about 20% in Surge and Horizon. three scenarios making it a carbon-neutral source of energy.

Return to page 34 A line chart showing total anthropogenic CO2 emissions

Return to page 38
from 1960 to 2100 for all three scenarios. Emissions were
Nuclear capacity by decade of 15 gigatonnes per year (Gt/y) in 1960, and have remained
Global sources and sinks of
stable at around 40 Gt/y since 2010. In Horizon,
construction in Surge anthropogenic carbon (as CO2) in Surge
emissions begin to decline in the mid 2020s, passing 0 in
An area chart showing total nuclear capacity in Surge 2050 and reaching minus 15 Gt/y in 2100. In Surge and A diagram describing the flows of anthropogenic CO2 in
between 1960 and 2100 by decade of construction. Archipelagos, emissions stay around 2025 levels until the Surge scenario in 2060. 21.7 Gt of carbon dioxide
Between 2025 and 2055, capacity remains constant at roughly 2030, and then decline. Emissions in Surge pass 0 from fossil fuels is extracted, but only 11.4 of that is emitted.
around 400 gigawatts (GW), which requires a buildout of in 2080, reaching minus 7 Gt/y in 2100. In Archipelagos, 4.2 Gt is stored in chemicals or absorbed through a 2.3
more than 100 GW in the 2040s. There is a rapid increase emissions remain positive at around 7 Gt/y in 2100. Gt DACCS and 0.7 Gt CCS industry. Land-use change
in capacity to more than 1.1 terawatts between 2055 and emissions are now 5 Gt negative, absorbing part of the
2100 due to a buildout of more than 100 GW per decade Return to page 37
remaining fossil and industrial process emissions. Negative-
from 2060. emissions BECCS reaches 0.2 Gt, and 0.3 Gt of biogenic
CO2 is stored in plastics. Overall net CO2 is 11.4 Gt.
Return to page 36
Return to page 40

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Shell Scenarios
The 2025 Energy Security Scenarios

Global sources and sinks of The combination of industrial process CO2, fossil CO2, captured by direct air carbon capture and storage
biogenic CO2 and various types of CCS add up to 1.3 Gt (DACCS). The entire direct air capture industry extracts
anthropogenic carbon (as CO2)
of net removals. Land-use change is negative 6.6 Gt. Total 8 Gt, also capturing CO2 from industrial processes and
in Archipelagos emissions are 7.9 Gt negative. synthetic fuels, in addition to the fossil CO2.

A diagram describing the flows of anthropogenic CO2 in

Return to page 44 Return to page 48
the Archipelagos scenario in 2060. Still 27.8 Gt of fossil
CO2 is extracted, but only 19.6 of that is emitted. The rest
Global CO2 emissions by sector in Global average surface temperature
is stored in chemicals or absorbed through a 0.7 Gt CCS
industry. Land-use change emissions are now 5 Gt negative,
Horizon and Surge at net-zero emissions change in three scenarios
absorbing part of the fossil and industrial process emissions. A bar chart of anthropogenic CO2 emissions, consisting of 4 A line chart showing the average surface temperature
Negative-emissions BECCS reaches 0.2 Gt, and 0.2 Gt of bars: 2025, Horizon in 2050, Surge in 2050 and Surge increase between 1850 and 2100. It contains 5 series:
biogenic CO2 is stored in plastics. Overall net emisisons in 2080. Emissions in 2025 are around 42 gigatonnes (Gt), history, modelled history by the Massachusetts Institute of
are 19.6 Gt. reaching 0 in Horizon in 2050 and in Surge in 2080. Technology, and the three scenarios. The modelled history
The bars are coloured by category: electricity, industry, tracks the history well on average but is less volatile. The
Return to page 42
buildings, transport, land-use change, and various types baseline is 1850 to 1900, where the temperature increases
of carbon capture and storage (CCS). CCS and land-use fluctuate around 0 degrees Celcius, rising to about 1.25
Global sources and sinks of change are negative, below the horizontal axis, mitigating (modelled history) or 1.5 (history) degrees Celcius in
anthropogenic carbon (as CO2) a remaining sliver of 10 Gt/y (Surge 2080) and 12 Gt/y 2025. In all three scenarios, the increase rises at first. In
in Horizon (Horizon 2050). In Surge in 2050, emissions from all Horizon, it rises to about 1.7 degrees Celsius around
sectors are still larger than in Horizon, with the negative 2050, then decreases to 1.25 degrees Celsius in 2100. In
A diagram describing the flows of anthropogenic CO2 in colours (CCS, land-use change) being smaller in absolute Archipelagos, the temperature rises then stabilises at
the Horizon scenario in 2060. Only 9.5 Gt of fossil CO2 terms as well. around 2.25 degrees Celsius in the decade 2090 to 2100.
is extracted, and this is captured either through 2.8 Gt In surge, it peaks at 2.1 degrees Celsius then drops slightly
of chemicals, 4.3 Gt of CCS, or through the bioenergy Return to page 47 to 2 degrees in 2100.
industry. Photosynthesis absorbs 8.7 Gt of atmospheric CO2
for the bioenergy industry, which either comes from 5.5 Gt Global sources and sinks of Return to page 49
of biogenic CO2 emissions or from 3.2 Gt of fossil emissions. anthropogenic carbon (as CO2) in Surge
2.3 Gt of bioenergy emissions are stored through negative-
emissions BECCS. A diagram describing the flows of anthropogenic CO2 in
Surge in 2100. Only 6.5 Gt of fossil CO2 are extracted,
3.2 Gt of which are stored in chemicals, and the remainder

57
Shell Scenarios
The 2025 Energy Security Scenarios

The infographic titled, Technology • BEV or EV – battery electric vehicle Key milestones and events in Archipelagos

timelines in The 2025 Energy Security • SAF – sustainable aviation fuel • In 2028, the nascent DAC (direct air capture) industry
collapses as funding dries up
Scenarios, outlines three different • GDP – gross domestic product
timelines, one for each scenario. They • In 2026, long-haul trucks start using hydrogen
• bbl/d – barrels per day (liquid fuels)
are called Surge, Archipelagos and • In 2030, CCS (carbon capture and storage) passes
Horizon. Here is a detailed description of
• boe/d – barrels of oil equivalent per day 100 Mt stored CO2 per year

the content: • SMR – small modular reactor (nuclear) • In 2040, SAF (sustainable aviation fuel) reaches
1 million bbl/d
General overview Timeline descriptions for primary energy changes

Surge
• In 2046, renewable hydrogen production reaches 10 Mt
The infographic spans from 2025 to 2065, detailing per year
the evolution of primary energy sources, technological • In 2040, solar PV capacity reaches 17 TW
advancements within the energy system, and significant • In 2047, hydrogen in trucks reaches 1 million boe/day
• Around 2060, solar PV capacity reaches 39
milestones in various sectors such as transport, energy • In 2050, the Airbus A400 H makes its first commercial
• By 2065, primary energy is 29% fossil fuels
2
production, and carbon capture. At the start in 2025, flight
global primary energy use is 78% fossil fuels (oil 38%, gas
28% and coal 34%).
Archipelagos • In 2055, nuclear energy starts growing again
• Around 2040, solar PV capacity reaches 9 TW • In 2051, cellulosic biofuels reach 2 million bbl/d
A number of abbreviations are used below. They are;
• By 2060, solar PV capacity reaches 24 TW
• CCS – carbon capture and (geological) storage • By 2065, primary energy is 41% fossil fuels
• DAC – direct air capture Horizon
• DACCS – direct air capture and (geological) • By 2040, solar PV capacity reaches 17 TW
storage
• After 2055, solar PV capacity reaches 39 TW
• PPP – purchasing power parity
• By 2060, solar PV capacity reaches 41 TW
• Mt – million tonnes
• By 2065, primary energy is 15% fossil fuels
• TW – terawatt
• TWh – terawatt-hours

58
Shell Scenarios
The 2025 Energy Security Scenarios

Key milestones and events in Horizon Key milestones and events in Surge

• In 2025, long-haul trucks start using hydrogen • In 2025, global IT infrastructure consumes 1,000+ TWh
of electricity
• In 2030, electric planes used for short regional flights
• In 2032, CCS passes 1 Gt stored CO per year
2
• In 2030, larger trucks adopt BEV technology
• In 2032, nuclear shows solid growth, backed by • In 2030, annual solar module production approached
1 TW
SMR technology

• In 2034, SAF reaches 1 million bbl/d • In 2035, global electricity enters a rapid growth phase
• In 2036, cellulosic biofuels reach 2 million bbl/d • In 2040, production of nuclear SMR ramps up
• In 2038, hydrogen in trucks reaches 1 million boe/day • In 2041, DACCS reaches 100 Mt per year
• In 2040, the Boeing 808-H makes its first commercial
2
• In, 2044, the first city centre all-autonomous vehicle
system
flight

• In 2040, DACCS begins to scale rapidly • In 2049, first nuclear-powered container ships
• In 2044, renewable hydrogen production exceeds 100 • In 2050, global IT infrastructure consumes 5,000 TWh
of electricity
Mt per year

• In 2050, fuel synthesis from H 2

and CO2 passes 1 million • In 2050, global GDP is $50 trillion (PPP 2016) per year
ahead of Horizon and Archipelagos
bbl/day

• In 2053, SAF reaches 5 million bbl/d • In 2052, global grid battery storage reaches 50 TWh
• In 2054, DAC reaches 1 Gt CO 2
• In 2055, fewer than 500 million petrol cars remaining
and no new sales
• In 2056, the end of liquid fuels in cars – EVs prevail
• In 2061, electric planes used for one in three regional
• In 2064, renewable hydrogen use reaches 400 Mt flights
per year
• In 2062, renewable hydrogen production is 80 Mt
per year

• In 2064, DAC has scaled to 3 Gt CO 2

per year

Return to page 50

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The 2025 Energy Security Scenarios

Legal disclaimer
WARNING - UNCERTAINTIES AHEAD: The 2025 Energy Security Scenarios.

Shell’s scenarios are not intended to be projections or forecasts of the future. Shell’s scenarios, including the scenarios contained in this publication, are not Shell’s strategy or business plan. They are designed to
stretch management to consider even events that may only be remotely possible. Scenarios, therefore, are not intended to be predictions of likely future events or outcomes and investors should not rely on them
when making an investment decision with regard to Shell plc securities. When developing Shell’s strategy, our scenarios are one of many variables that we consider. Ultimately, whether society meets its goal
to decarbonise is not within Shell’s control, and only governments can create the framework necessary for society to meet the Paris Agreement’s goal. We have developed scenarios that fall into two different
categories. Our Surge and Archipelagos scenarios are exploratory scenarios, which means we do not assume a particular outcome within their development, rather we use plausible assumptions based on the
data to determine what we believe could occur in the future. Of course, there are multiple possible paths in detail that society could take and our exploratory scenarios are designed to explore a plausible range.
The Horizon scenario is a normative scenario, which means we assume that society pursues efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 C above pre-industrial levels, as per Article 2 of the Paris Agreement.
With such an assumption in place, we then set out how this may occur. Our detailed energy system assumptions for Horizon are based on what we believe are technically possible as of today and not necessarily
plausible. The normative analysis shows that achieving the goal of the Paris Agreement and the future depicted in Horizon while maintaining a growing global economy will be extremely challenging.

Cautionary Note: The companies in which Shell plc directly and indirectly owns investments are separate legal entities. In this publication “Shell”, “Shell Group” and “Group” are sometimes used for
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We may have used certain terms, such as resources, in this publication that the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) strictly prohibits us from including in our filings with the SEC. Investors are
urged to consider closely the disclosure in our Form 20-F, File No 1-32575, available on the SEC website www.sec.gov.

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Shell Scenarios
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© 2025 Shell International Limited

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