SCI205/ENV244
Modeling the Environment
Lecture 1: Introduction to Systems
Instructor: Talha Manzoor
• Assistant Professor of
Research, Centre for Water
Informatics & Technology,
SBASSE, LUMS
• Assistant Professor, Electrical
Engineering, SBASSE, LUMS
talha.manzoor@lums.edu.pk
Office: 9-231 A, Maxwell wing,
2nd floor, SBASSE Building
Office Hours: 02:00 pm to 04:00 pm
on Wednesdays
TA: Arfa Yaseen
Centre for Water Informatics &
Technology, SBASSE, LUMS
arfa.yaseen@lums.edu.pk
What is a System?
What causes a system to behave a certain way?
From Systems to Traditional Wisdom
Because of feedback delays within complex systems, by the time a
problem becomes apparent it may be unnecessarily difficult to solve
A stich in time saves nine
From Systems to Traditional Wisdom
If a reinforcing feedback loop rewards the winner of a competition
with the means to further win competitions, the result will be the
elimination of all but a few competitors
The rich get richer, and the poor get poorer
From Systems to Traditional Wisdom
A diverse system with multiple pathways and redundancy is more
stable and less vulnerable to external shock than a uniform system
with little diversity
Don’t put all your eggs in one basket
When Interventions Backfire
American Wildfires
While policy intervention did lead to fewer
fires, it also led to growth conditions such that
when fires did occur, they were much larger
and more damaging.
When Interventions Backfire
China’s Four Pest Campaign
It was later realized that besides grain, the sparrows also ate many
insects harmful to rice, and as a result, the rice yield actually decreased
When Interventions Backfire
The increased production of biofuels competes
with existing agricultural goods which can result in
a rise in food prices.
When Interventions Backfire
Levee Effect
The cost of flood damage has increased as the
flood plains were developed by people who
believed they were safe.
What is a model?
Sixteen Reasons Other Than Prediction to Build Models
1. Explain (very distinct from predict)
2. Guide data collection
3. Illuminate core dynamics
4. Suggest dynamical analogies
5. Discover new questions
6. Promote a scientific habit of mind
7. Bound (bracket) outcomes to plausible ranges
8. Illuminate core uncertainties.
9. Offer crisis options in near-real time
10.Demonstrate tradeoffs / suggest efficiencies
11.Challenge the robustness of prevailing theory through perturbations
12.Expose prevailing wisdom as incompatible with available data
13.Train practitioners
14.Discipline the policy dialogue
15.Educate the general public
16.Reveal the apparently simple (complex) to be complex (simple) Models can take
on many forms
Model showcase:
Namal Valley Watershed, Mianwali
Danda Shah
Bilawal
K
Ban Hafiz Jee
Rikhi KH
L
Namal Lake D Lawa
ND Tarappi
Golar
DK
Musa Khel
W E DP
S Uchhali Lake
Sakesar
Namal Dam 400 𝐤𝐦𝟐 catchment area
Computational Model in ArcSWAT (Soil & Water
Assessment Tool) for runoff prediction
Land Classes
Soil Classes Slope Classes
Estimating Lakebed
Geometry
A Recurrent Neural Network model of the Rainfall Runoff at Namal
Dataset
Prediction
Watershed Model for Human-water interactions
Experiential
Games
Model for water allocation game
All rainwater goes into Water divided between
the lake upstream and
downstream accordingly
Generate a random
number. This is the Participants vote on
rainfall the gate operation
choices
Structural Model of Water Conflict
+
Water
Economic benefits
B3 Inflow
near Flood plain
- Tube well
R2 Proliferation
Crop field
Inundation Ground -
+ + Water Table
Flood
+ Pressure to
Illegal - Awareness
close gates
Settlements Flood Plain +
Inundation +
R1
+ + Expected Economic
+ Settlement + B1 Damage
Flood Plain Expansion Reservoir Level
Encroachment Expected Flood Flood B2
+
Damage Control - Agricultural
Water Storage
+ + Water
Flood + Pressure to
Shortage
Vulnerability open gates -
B4 +
Stored +
Compassion
Water
B5
Water
Sympathy for victims Demand
Resentment +
-
Course Objectives
• Understand the environment as a complex system, with the ability to
identify system components, interconnections, and functions.
• Identify processes inherent to the structure of coupled human-natural
systems that cause resistance to human interventions and policy.
• Use the System Dynamics (SD) framework to simulate system behavior,
make projections, and test hypotheses.
Textbooks
Pressure to reduce
congestion
+ +
Road
Capacity -
Traffic
Congestion
+
Traffic
Volume
Projected
Traffic volume
Traffic Growth
Capacity
Time
Increased
Pressure to reduce
congestion
+ +
Road
Capacity -
Traffic
Congestion
+
Traffic
Volume
+ +
Travel Time
Induced -
Traffic
Traffic volume with current capacity
Traffic volume with added capacity
Projected
Traffic volume
Traffic Growth
Generated
Traffic
Capacity
Time
Increased
Pressure to reduce
congestion
+ +
Pressure to reduce
Road
congestion
+ Capacity -
+ Traffic
Road
Capacity Congestion
- +
Traffic Traffic
Congestion Volume
+ + +
Traffic
Volume Travel Time
Induced -
Traffic
Examples of Policy resistance
• Low tar and nicotine cigarettes actually increase
intake of carcinogens.
• Pesticides and herbicides have stimulated the
evolution of resistant pests and weeds.
• Antilock brakes and other automotive safety features
cause people to drive more aggressively resulting in
more deaths
Understanding System Behavior Over Time
Stock and Flow Diagrams
Stock
Inflow outflow
source sink
Understanding System Behavior Over Time
Change in stock = inflows − outflows
Understanding System Behavior Over Time
Population
Net Birth Rate
+ +
Fractional Net Birth Rate
Net Birth Rate 𝑡 = Population 𝑡 × Fractional Net Birth Rate
𝑡
Population 𝑡 = න Net Birth Rate 𝜏 𝑑𝜏 + Population(𝑡0 )
𝑡0
Understanding System Behavior Over Time
𝐅𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐍𝐞𝐭 𝐁𝐢𝐫𝐭𝐡 𝐑𝐚𝐭𝐞 > 𝟎
Population
Net Birth Rate
Population
+
R
Fractional Net Birth Rate
0
𝒕
Understanding System Behavior Over Time
𝐅𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐍𝐞𝐭 𝐁𝐢𝐫𝐭𝐡 𝐑𝐚𝐭𝐞 < 𝟎
Population
Net Birth Rate
Population
+
B
Fractional Net Birth Rate
0
𝒕
Systems with Delays
The Fisheries Department monitors fish harvest and adjusts breeding programs
to maintain a fish population to satisfy demand for 10 years of harvesting
Growth Rate Harvest Rate
(Fish/Year) (Fish/Year)
Fish stock
+ (Fish) + +
Fry introduction +
Fish demand
(Fish/Year) − (Fish/Year)
Perceived Demand
+ + Discrepancy
(Fish/Year)
(Fish) +
Desired stock +
(Fish)
Planning Horizon
(Year)
Harvest Rate = minimum(Fish stock, Fish demand)
Desired stock = Perceived Demand × Planning Horizon
Fry Introduction = maximum(Discrepancy + Perceived Demand, 0)
Demand
Increased
Maturity time Growth Rate Harvest Rate
(Year) (Fish/Year) (Fish/Year)
Fish stock
+ (Fish) + +
Fry introduction +
Fish demand
(Fish/Year) − (Fish/Year)
Perceived Demand
+ + Discrepancy
(Fish/Year)
(Fish) +
Desired stock +
Response delay (Fish) Perception delay
Planning Horizon
(Year) (Year)
(Year)
Department considers the average demand to avoid reacting to blips in demand
Only a fraction of the discrepancy is covered in a year, just to make sure that the trend is real
It takes time for the young fish to become mature enough for harvest
Oscillations!
Perception delay = 5 Years Response delay = 3 Years Maturity Time = 5 Years
What happens when the department acts to reduce its delay?
Perception delay reduced to 2 Years Response delay reduced to 2 Years
What if the department increases its response delay?
Perception delay = 5 Years Response delay = 6 Years Maturity Time = 5 Years
Delays are important leverage
points but often pushed in the
wrong direction
Week 1
• Theoretical
background
• Modelling
concepts
• Software
Week 8
Midterm Exam
Week 9 Modeling case
studies
• Water
• Agriculture
• Disaster
• Civilization
Week 14
Final Exam
Week 1
Introduction to Environmental Systems
• Theoretical
background
• Modelling
concepts
• Software
Week 8
Midterm Exam
Week 9 • Modeling case
studies
• Water
• Agriculture
• Predation
• Disease
Week 14
Final Exam
Week 1
Introduction to Environmental Systems
• Theoretical
background
• Modelling
concepts
• Software
Week 8
Midterm Exam
Week 9 • Modeling case
studies
• Water
• Agriculture
• Predation
• Disease
Week 14
Final Exam
Week 1
Introduction to Causal Loop Diagrams
• Theoretical
background
• Modelling
concepts
• Software
Week 8
Midterm Exam
Week 9 • Modeling case
studies
• Water
• Agriculture
• Predation
• Disease
Week 14
Final Exam
Week 1
Introduction to Stocks and Flows
• Theoretical
background
• Modelling
concepts
• Software
Week 8
Midterm Exam
Week 9 • Modeling case
studies
• Water
• Agriculture
• Predation
• Disease
Week 14
Final Exam
Week 1
Dynamics of Growth
• Theoretical
background
• Modelling
concepts
• Software
Week 8
Midterm Exam
Week 9 • Modeling case
studies
• Water
• Agriculture
• Predation
• Disease
Week 14
Final Exam
Week 1
Density Dependent Growth
• Theoretical
background
• Modelling
concepts
• Software
Week 8
Midterm Exam
Week 9 • Modeling case
studies
• Water
• Agriculture
• Predation
• Disease
Week 14
Final Exam
Week 1
Exponential Decay
• Theoretical
background
• Modelling
concepts
• Software
Week 8
Midterm Exam
Week 9 • Modeling case
studies
• Water
• Agriculture
• Predation
• Disease
Week 14
Final Exam
Week 1
Mono Lake
• Theoretical
background
• Modelling
concepts
• Software
Week 8
Midterm Exam
Week 9 • Modeling case
studies
• Water
• Agriculture
• Predation
• Disease
Week 14
Final Exam
Week 1
Epidemics
• Theoretical
background
• Modelling
concepts
• Software
Week 8
Midterm Exam
Week 9 • Modeling case
studies
• Water
• Agriculture
• Predation
• Disease
Week 14
Final Exam
Week 1
Technology Adoption
• Theoretical
background
• Modelling
concepts
• Software
Week 8
Midterm Exam
Week 9 • Modeling case
studies
• Water
• Agriculture
• Predation
• Disease
Week 14
Final Exam
Week 1
Agricultural Systems
• Theoretical
background
• Modelling
concepts
• Software
Week 8
Midterm Exam
Week 9 • Modeling case
studies
• Water
• Agriculture
• Predation
• Disease
Week 14
Final Exam
Week 1
Agricultural Systems
• Theoretical
background
• Modelling
concepts
• Software
Week 8
Midterm Exam
Week 9 • Modeling case
studies
• Water
• Agriculture
• Predation
• Disease
Week 14
Final Exam
Week 1
Salmon Harvest
• Theoretical
background
• Modelling
concepts
• Software
Week 8
Midterm Exam
Week 9 • Modeling case
studies
• Water
• Agriculture
• Predation
• Disease
Week 14
Final Exam
Week 1
Predator Prey Systems: Deer Irruption
• Theoretical
background
• Modelling
concepts
• Software
Week 8
Midterm Exam
Week 9 • Modeling case
studies
• Water
• Agriculture
• Predation
• Disease
Week 14
Final Exam
Grading Policy
Quizzes
• 10%
Assignments
• 20%
Projects
• 20%
Midterm Exam
• 20%
Final Exam
• 30%
Projects
Component Weight Description
300-500 words (plus references). A clear introduction to the topic, sufficient
Abstract and background material (with citation) to lead to and articulate the question that the
5%
Causal Model paper will address, a clear research question, and a causal model representation of
your system with the necessary focal processes to address your question.
The students will present their projects in pre-recorded videos of 5 minutes duration.
The videos will be uploaded online and will be peer evaluated. The videos should
Project Video 7% clearly introduce the topic and lead to the research question, present sufficient detail
of your model to allow audience to interpret your analysis, present key results and
analysis, and discuss findings and limiting assumptions in your approach.
3000-5000 words, inclusive of bibliography with at least 20 sources, and in-text
citations. A completed final paper that introduces a clear research question, develops
Final Paper 8%
an appropriate model to inform it, and contributes some kind of analysis to
addressing it.
Week 1
4 Homework Assignments • Theoretical
• 2 pre-midterm background
• 2 post-midterm • Modelling
concepts
• Software
Week 7: Project
Quizzes Week 8 Abstracts and Causal
• At least 5 announced. Probability Models Due
in lectures immediately after HW Midterm Exam
submission is high
• Pop-quizzes will carry half quiz Week 9 Modeling case
weightage. studies
• Best 5 Quizzes counted.
• Water
• Agriculture
• Disaster
Week 13: Project Videos Due
Exams • Civilization
Week 14 Week 14: Project Papers Due
• Open book, notes
• Computer lab
Final Exam
Thank You
