IV.

Science Systems Thinking Systems, Box Modeling, Scientific Principles, Feedbacks

A. Introduction
Remember, environmental policy is closely attuned to the dynamics occurring in the natural system because those dynamics are the signals we use to understand what, if anything, needs to be done from a policy standpoint in response to those signals. One of the difficult roles in this process is deciphering what is a signal from the environment? For example, is a really strong storm a signal of something different? Is a heat wave indicative of something worth listening to? Is a toxic algal bloom and fish kill evidence that something is awry in our environment? To answer these questions we need to know a few things: First, we need to understand the background conditions of the environment.1 Second, we need some capacity to make informed assumptions about what we are observing and its potential impact on background natural conditions.2

The previous sections discussed natural systems in some detail in order to help provide a sense of what background conditions are in our environment. In this section we are going to discuss three tools that will help us make informed assumptions about what we are seeing today and its relationship to background environmental conditions. These tools are box modeling, underlying scientific principles, and feedback loops.

B. Box Modeling
The concept of box modeling is actually quite simple; take a complex, dynamic setting like a natural system and simplify it conceptually so changes in background conditions can be identified and understood. This all starts with a basic representation of a system interaction (copied from the text) as follows:

These background conditions create a baseline from which observations can be compared. Without the baseline, we cannot make meaningful comparisons between what we are observing and the natural state of nature. This is where science particularly scientific observations over time can be quite useful; science can help us understand what background conditions are so we are making appropriate assumptions through new observations (otherwise we are just spinning our wheels when thinking about environmental policy).
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Knowing something about background natural conditions is not enough. We need to have some tools that help us place what we are observing into context with background conditions.

Based on prevailing information about the natural system, the box model focuses our attention, via systems theory, on the interactions that occur in the observed system component. In the figure there are three primary interactions: The green inflows into the system; The red outflows; and The blue feedback mechanisms (if any) that result from the inputs and outflows.

By focusing on the set of interactions in the system, one can use the box model as a way of comparing between expected background conditions and current observations. In addition, the model can be used to forecast potential interactions based on assumed changes in the future. By focusing on the movements into and from the system component, the model allows us to focus on energy flows.3 The energy flows help to tell a story about the system, for example whether the system is staying within an equilibrium state, or whether it is beginning to move out of an equilibrium state and (potentially)

Remember, environmental policy is about understanding what is going on in nature (fundamentally) and whether what is happening requires some kind of formal government intervention. The basic way this observation can be made is to understand what are considered normal background conditions of nature and what actions (inflows, outflows, feedback) might be altering this background condition. If the action is deemed bad for the environment, then this may be a trigger to do something.

towards a systems threshold.4 Feedback loops help to provide evidence of a shift in equilibrium state, and the strength of the feedback may be an indicator the system is moving towards a threshold response.5 These concepts are made clearer in the later section on placing box modeling into context. However, in order to understand that context, some additional insights focusing on how underlying scientific principles affect systems thinking are necessary.

C. Underlying Scientific Principles

If system thinking requires us to think in terms of energy flows between components of the system (inputs, outflows, feedback), then we need to understand basic scientific principles about energy. The reason: these scientific principles about energy help to define our assumptions about the underlying natural system (how it functions under normal circumstances). Mass-energy equivalence reminds us that mass and energy are, well, equivalent. This is important because it helps us draw a clear relationship about how energy moves through a system component. We can see the energy move into the system and then have interactions in the system. Those interactions are important in understanding what occurs within the system, and also what outputs are removed from the system. All of this influences feedback within the system. Thus, understanding mass-energy equivalence in general is important in understanding how systems theory aids in environmental policy. The text highlights the important aspects of mass-energy equivalence for recollection.

Often it is very difficult to predict when a change in a system is occurring to the degree that a systems threshold is being crossed. However, basic calculations using the box model can help one see where changes are occurring and consequently where the potential for a threshold response (punctuated event) resides.
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Human induced climate change may be a good example here. The carbon cycle of the Earth is being perturbed by humans; carbon is being removed from the lithosphere and added to the atmosphere (the input). This additional carbon in the atmosphere is trapping additional heat within the Earth system (the output), and the additional heat within the Earth system is leading to climate change (the feedback). The increasing measurement of carbon in the atmosphere has been observed and recorded by scientists for decades (of course this means science already had to of known the background rate of carbon in the atmosphere under natural state conditions). These observations from science have made it possible to monitor the change in inputs, and these changes in the amount of carbon in the atmosphere are an indicator of a problem that likely needs to be addressed by government. This is a prime example of box modeling and its application (by utilizing other principles discussed) to environmental policy. This is explained in greater detail in the text.

Assumption of a well-mixed system is important in understanding the energy dynamics of a system. Earlier we discussed the concept that natural systems like the Earth are considered to be well-mixed, or at a general state of equilibrium. This assumption is based on the age of the Earth and the idea that, given a long enough time, the concentrations of stuff that makes up the Earth averages out to be constant it does not change substantially. In the text this was explained in terms of the relatively stable concentration of oxygen found in the atmosphere; even though there are lots of things that consume oxygen on the Earth, the concentration remains essentially stable.6 The importance of understanding this principle is that it establishes the validity of background conditions as an expectation in environmental observations. Thus, any deviation from background conditions may be an indicator of change leading to further inquiry and potential policy intervention (if we think of environmental policy in-part as monitoring for potentially harmful outcomes). In essence, Charles Keeling, when he began seeing changes in carbon dioxide concentrations through his measurements, relied on equilibrium theory to predict human beings were adding carbon to the atmosphere through the byproducts of industrialization (burning hydrocarbons). Keelings prediction was right not because he is an oracle, but rather because he relied on a steady-state assumption about the Earth and the relative concentrations of carbon in the atmosphere the concentration should not change unless something unusual is happening. The roots of environmental policy follow the same pattern of logic and rely on the same assumptions based in scientific principles. With the underlying scientific principles understood, we are able to revisit the box model and observe its functions as a policy tool in context.

D. The Box Model in Context Feedback Mechanisms

With the concepts of mass-energy equivalence and systems equilibrium in-hand, we return to our policy tool of box modeling to see how the concepts help in our understanding of natural system dynamics. The text uses the example of following carbon through the different components of the earth system the carbon cycle. By modeling the carbon cycle, the changes in components of the earth system (particularly removing carbon from the lithosphere and forcing it into the atmosphere) can be understood in relatively simplistic terms. Visually, the progression of this modeling process is summarized below:

Recall James Lovelocks Gaia Hypothesis as a way of understanding how feedback mechanisms might work to regulate a stable concentration over time.

What is interesting to note is not only do we see the perturbation (change) within the system components (the moving of carbon from the lithosphere to the atmosphere) through a box model of carbon, but we also see how the earth system reacts to this perturbation. For example, some of the carbon added to the atmosphere is absorbed into the oceans. Ocean absorption of the carbon from the atmosphere may be seen as a system feedback from the input of carbon into the atmosphere. We can see this specific feedback mechanism because we can see there is more carbon going into the oceans than is being absorbed by the oceans, a net increase of carbon into the oceans. This increase violates a tenet of equilibrium theory, which suggests a well-mixed system has no net change in concentrations over time (the amount going into a system component should equal the amount going out of the same system component). Thus, by modeling the various inputs and outputs of the system component we can see a potential issue unfolding; additional carbon is being added to the atmosphere, with some of it being taken up by the oceans but not all of it some of the carbon is remaining in the atmosphere causing a net increase in carbon concentrations in the atmosphere. The box model now really shows its merits by allowing us to consider the impacts of the energy flows observed. We already know additional carbon in the atmosphere is leading to an increased greenhouse effect and thus rising average global temperatures. However, we can see other issues from the box model relatively clearly. For example, the oceans are taking up additional carbon. This means the overall concentration of carbon in ocean waters is increasing over time. We can now ask ourselves what this might mean for the

ocean system including the life that exists within that system. Some of the effects of additional carbon uptake in the ocean include ocean acidification; the carbon taken up is chemically altering the pH of the ocean. Since much of the life that has evolved in the ocean has done so at specific ranges of pH, the change is having consequences that are now being observed. For example, coral bleaching (the die off of coral communities) is occurring. I hope everyone can see the power in box modeling: the ability to reduce complex interactions down to manageable interactions. In essence, box modeling does the following: It simplifies a complex environment. It allows for a systems-based approach to understanding environmental conditions, focusing on energy flows (inputs, outflows, feedback) within and among system components. It adheres to basic principles of science, including mass-energy equivalence and equilibrium theory. It allows trends to be observed and, in doing so, provides a method for forecasting potential environmental issues.7

We now should have a deeper understanding of the role of science in environmental policy. Science helps us understand what is meant by natural systems, and also provides a connection to the way in which natural systems operate thereby aiding in identifying environmental problems. In addition, by focusing on a systems approach, the connection between environmental policy and systems thinking is made clearer through understanding basic scientific principles. What ends up becoming an environmental problem is really a study of system dynamics; when the background rates change in a way that potentially impacts human wellbeing we can say with some degree of certainty that this change is an environmental problem that is worth looking into and potentially developing a policy response to the role of government. To better understand the problem, and potentially forecast other issues (understanding feedback potential), box modeling can be used as a conceptual framework for simplifying the complex interactions so that a policy response, if needed, can be adequately determined. Now that we have a clearer sense of the role of science in environmental decisionmaking, we move on to the human side of the information that aids in policy
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For example, the trend of increasing carbon accumulation in the atmosphere can be observed from box modeling (assuming the information is available to identify the trend one reason we should see how important basic observational research is), and the forecasting of issues, such as the net uptake of carbon in the ocean leading to acidification, can be made.

directions. This will include us looking at our economic principles in some detail, and also some observations of how humans identify and quantify value as a concept in the environmental arena. END OF SECTION.