Probability 01

1. An integer is chosen at random from the set {5, 7, 9, 11}. An integer is also chosen at
random from the set {2, 6, 10, 14, 18}. What is the probability that + = 23? 1

A. 0.1 B. 0.2 C. 2.5 D. 0.3

2. Consider the following Venn diagram.

Find the value of x such that C and D are independent events. 2

A. 0.2 B. 0.3 C. 0.5 D. 0.6

3. 200 tickets are sold in a raffle at Koolara High School. First prize is $150 and second
prize is $50. The prize-winning tickets are drawn consecutively without replacement
where the first ticket wins first prize. 3
(a) Complete the probability tree diagram for a student who buys five tickets, showing
the sample space clearly

(b) Find the probability that the student wins at least one prize.
 (c) What is the probability that the student wins the second prize given that they did not
win the first prize?

4. For events A and B from a sample space, ( )= and ( )= .4

a) Calculate ( ∩ )

b) Calculate ( ̅∩ ) where ̅ denotes the complement of .

c) If and are independent, calculate ( ∪ ).

5. One half percent (0.5 % of a country has a certain viral disease. A test is developed for
the disease. The test gives a false positive 3% of the time, and a false negative 2% of the
time. 5
a) Show that the probability that Andy, a randomly selected person, tests positive is 0 ∙
0.3475.
[Hint: in this question, let be the event that Andy has the disease, and ! be the event
Andy does not have it. Let " be the event that Andy’s test comes back positive.]
b) Andy just got the bad news that his test came back positive. Find the probability that
Andy actually has the disease.

6. A teacher in college asks her mathematics students what other subjects they are studying.
She finds that, of her 24 students, 12 study physics, 8 study geography and 4 study both.
They are studying at least one of the subjects. 6
a) A student is chosen at random from the class. Determine whether the event ‘the
student studies physics’ and the event ‘the student studies geography’ are independent.
b) It is known that for the whole college:
• The probability of a student studying mathematics is #
.

• The probability of a student studying biology is $

.
 • The probability of a student studying biology given that they study mathematics is %
.

Calculate the probability that in the whole college a student studies mathematics
or biology or both.

7. Robina threw an ordinary die numbered 1 to 6 twice. What is the probability that the
second number shown on the die is more than the first?7
A. #$ B. $ C. #
&
D. &

8. It is known for a large population that at the beginning of winter, 15% of people will be
infected with a particular virus. 8
a) Four people are selected at random. Find the probability that at least one of them has
the virus.
b) What is the smallest number of people a drug company would need to test to have a
greater than 95% chance that at least one of the tested people has the virus?

9. As winter progresses the virus spreads further so the health authorities decide to trial a
new medication to try and stop the spread of the virus. The two-way table shows the
number of people in a trial. (Note: The trial consists of those taking the medication and
those in a control group). 9

a) What percentage of people in the trial had the virus?

b) What percentage of people in the control group had the virus?
c) Giving a reason, determine if it is worth the health authorities using this new
medication.
10. A raffle consists of 20 tickets in which there are two prizes. David buys 5 tickets. First
prize is two movie vouchers and second prize is one movie voucher. What is the
probability that David wins at least one movie voucher? 10
A. &'# B. &(
($
C. (
$
D. (
%

11. The probability that a certain girl wakes up late in the morning is 0.6. When she wakes
up late, the probability that she is late to work is 0.85. When she wakes up on time, the
probability that she is late to work is 0.4. 11
a) What is the probability that she is late to work on any morning?
b) Upon seeing the girl arriving late, her boss asks her if she overslept. What is the
probability that the truthful answer is ‘yes’?

12. The chance of a fisherman catching a fish of legal length is 3 in 5. If three fish are caught
at random, what is the probability that exactly one is of legal length? 12
$ & ( )
A. &#
B. &#
C. &#
D. &#

13. Let * and + be independent events where (*) = 0.2 and (+) = 0.52.

What is the value of (*- ∩ +-)? 13

A. 0.616 B. 0.72 C. 0.384 D. 0.28

14. Neville lives in a town where one third of the days are rainy days. If it is a rainy day, the
chance of heavy traffic is &. If it is not a rainy day, the chance of heavy traffic is . If it is a

rainy day and there is heavy traffic, there is a 50% chance that Neville will arrive late to
work. On the other hand , the probability of being late is reduced to %
if it is not a rainy

day and there is no heavy traffic. In other situations, the probability of Neville being late
to work is 0.35. On a random day, Neville arrives late to work. What is the probability
 that it is a rainy day? 14

15. Alice and Raoul take turns throwing darts at a dartboard. The winner is whoever hits the
bullseye first. Alice has a '
chance of hitting the bullseye, while Raoul has a '
chance of

hitting the bullseye. Alice throws the first dart. 15

a) Draw a tree diagram for the first four throws of the games (two throws for Alice and
two for Raoul).
b) What is the probability that Alice wins on her first or second throw?
c) What is the probability that Alice will eventually win the game.
1
A
2
B
) ) (% )( #
3
a) (..) = , (./) = , (/.) = , (//) = b) c)
))' #)& #)& )%' )%' ))
4 #
a) b) c)
& $
5
a) 0.03475 b) 0.141
6 (
a) independent b)
&
7
C
8
a) 0.4780 b) 19 people
9
a) 49.28% b) 49.52% c) not worth
10
D
11 #
a) 0.67 b) $(
12
A
13
C
14
$
15 &#) '
a) diagram b) c) $)
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