Example 1: Mr.

Ali, a student enrolled in an IIT (Information and Communication Technology)

program, is preparing for two important certification exams: Cybersecurity and Cloud Computing.
Based on his preparation and previous mock test performances, he estimates that the probability
of passing the Cybersecurity exam is 2/3, while the probability of passing the Cloud Computing
exam is 5/6. Additionally, the probability that he will pass both exams is 3/5. Based on this
information, what is the probability that Mr. Ali will pass at least one of the two exams?

Solution: Let A and B be the events that he will pass the course Cybersecurity and Cloud
Computing, respectively. Therefore, according to the addition rule we get,
𝑃 (𝐴 𝑜𝑟 𝐵) = 𝑃 (𝐴 𝑈 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) – 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
= 2/3 + 5/6 – 3/5
= 9/10

Example 2: In a sample of 500 students enrolled in an IIT (Information and Communication

Technology) program, 320 students reported owning a laptop, 175 students said they owned a
smartphone, and 100 students reported owning both a laptop and a smartphone. If a student is
selected at random, what is the probability that the student owns both a laptop and a smartphone?
What is the probability that the student owns a laptop or a smartphone?

Solution: The probability that the student has both a laptop and a smartphone:
100
𝑃 (𝑆 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑇) = 𝑃(𝑆 ∩ 𝑇) =
500
= 0.20

Let 𝐿 and 𝑃 be the events that students had laptop and smartphone, respectively. Then the
probability that student has owns a laptop or a smartphone is-
𝑃 (𝐿 𝑜𝑟 𝑃) = 𝑃(𝐿 ∪ 𝑃) = 𝑃(𝐿) + 𝑃 (𝑃) – 𝑃 (𝐿 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑃)
320 175 100
= 500 + 500 – 500

= 0.79
Example 3: The question, "Do you like watching TV?" was asked of 100 people. Results are
shown in the table.
a) What is the probability of a randomly selected individual being a male and who likes
watching TV?
b) What is the probability of a randomly selected individual like watching TV?
c) What is the probability of a randomly selected individual is a male if it is given that he
likes watching TV?

Yes No Total

Male 19 41 60

Female 12 28 40

Total 31 69 100

Solution:
a) This is just a joint probability. The number of "Male and like watching TV" divided by the
total = 19/100 = 0.19
b) Since no mention is made of gender, this is a marginal probability, the total who like
watching TV divided by the total = 31/100 = 0.31
c)

Exercise: In a sample of 500 students enrolled in an IIT program, 300 students reported enrolling
in an Artificial Intelligence course, and 200 students enrolled in a Machine Learning course. No
student enrolled in both courses simultaneously. Additionally, 10 students mentioned they enrolled
in neither of the two courses. If a student is selected at random, what is the probability that the
student has enrolled in either the Artificial Intelligence or Machine Learning course? What is the
probability that the student has enrolled in any of the courses?
Total Probability Theorem: The Total Probability Theorem is a fundamental rule in probability
theory used to find the probability of an event based on all mutually exclusive events of the sample
space. It’s especially useful when the probability of the event depends on various conditions.

Let 𝐵1, 𝐵2, …, 𝐵𝑛 are mutually exclusive events such that ⋃𝑛𝑖=1 𝐵𝑖 = 𝑆. In other words, exactly
one of the events 𝐵1, 𝐵2, …, 𝐵𝑛 will occur. Thus,
𝑛
𝐴=⋃ 𝐴𝐵𝑖
𝑖=1

And using the facts that the events 𝐴𝐵𝑖 , 𝑖 = 1,2, … . , 𝑛 are mutually exclusive, we obtain

𝑛
𝑃(𝐴) = ∑ 𝑃(𝐴𝐵𝑖 )
𝑖=1
𝑛
=∑ 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵𝑖 )𝑃( 𝐵𝑖 )
𝑖=1

= 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵1 )𝑃(𝐵1 ) + 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵2 )𝑃(𝐵2 ) + ⋯ + 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵𝑛 )𝑃(𝐵𝑛 ) (Eq. 1)

Suppose now that 𝐴 has occurred and we are interested in determining which one of the
following 𝐵𝑗 also occurred. By equation 1 we have that

𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵𝑗 )
𝑃(𝐵𝑗 |𝐴) =
𝑃(𝐴)

𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵𝑗 )
= ∑𝑛 ( ) ( )
(Eq. 2)
𝑖=1 P 𝐴|𝐵𝑖 P 𝐵𝑖

Example 1: Students apply to join the university’s problem-solving team for the Inter-IIT Tech
Fest. They come from four different academic years: 1st year (15%), 2nd year (30%), 3rd year
(35%), and 4th year (20%). The selection rates differ due to experience: 10% for 1st year, 25%
for 2nd year, 50% for 3rd year, and 60% for 4th year. What is the total probability that a
randomly selected applicant gets selected for the team? If a randomly choosing applicant is
known to be selected, what is the probability that they are from the 3rd year?
Solution: Given that,
𝑃(𝑌1 ) = 0.15
𝑃(𝑌2 ) = 0.3
𝑃(𝑌3 ) = 0.35
𝑃(𝑌4 ) = 0.20
𝑃(𝑆|𝑌1 ) = 0.1
𝑃(𝑆|𝑌2 ) = 0.25
𝑃(𝑆|𝑌3 ) = 0.5
𝑃(𝑆|𝑌4 ) = 0.6

Formula,
𝑃(𝑆) = 𝑃(𝑆|𝑌1 )𝑃(𝑌1 ) + 𝑃(𝑆|𝑌2 )𝑃(𝑌2 ) + 𝑃(𝑆|𝑌3 )𝑃(𝑌3 ) + 𝑃(𝑆|𝑌4 )𝑃(𝑌4 )
= 0.1 × 0.15 + 0.25 × 0.3 + 0.5 × 0.35 + 0.6 × 0.2
= 0.385

Also,
𝑃(𝑆 ∩ 𝑌3 )
𝑃(𝑌3 |𝑆) =
P(S)
𝑃(𝑆|𝑌3 )𝑃(𝑌3 )
=
P(S)
0.5 × 0.35
=
0.385
= 0.45
Another Approach,
Academic Year Probability of Selection P(S|Y) Probability of Being from Year P(Y)
1st Year 0.10 0.15
2nd Year 0.25 0.30
3rd Year 0.50 0.35
4th Year 0.60 0.20
Example 2: At IIT department, a core course in Machine Learning is offered by four different
professors: Prof. A, Prof. B, Prof. C, and Prof. D. Due to scheduling and preference, students
distribute themselves among these professors as follows: 20% take the course with Prof. A, 30%
with Prof. B, 25% with Prof. C, and 25% with Prof. D. The pass rates for students vary by
professor: 90% of students pass under Prof. A, 70% under Prof. B, 80% under Prof. C, and 60%
under Prof. D. If a student is selected at random from the course, what is the probability that the
student passes? If a randomly selected student is known to have passed the course, what is the
probability that the student studied under Prof. B?

Solution: Given that,

𝑃(𝐴) = 0.2
𝑃(𝐵) = 0.3
𝑃(𝐶) = 0.25
𝑃(𝐷) = 0.25
𝑃(𝑃|𝐴) = 0.9
𝑃(𝑃|𝐵) = 0.7
𝑃(𝑃|𝐶) = 0.8
𝑃(𝑃|𝐷) = 0.6

𝑃(𝑃) = 𝑃(𝑃|𝐴)𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝑃|𝐵)𝑃(𝐵) + 𝑃(𝑃|𝐶)𝑃(𝐶)

= 0.9 × 0.2 + 0.7 × 0.3 + 0.8 × 0.25 + 0.6 × 0.25
= 0.74

So, the overall probability that a student passes the course is 0.74.

𝑃(𝑃 ∩ 𝐵)
𝑃(𝐵|𝑃) =
𝑃(𝑃)

𝑃 (𝑃|𝐵)𝑃(𝐵)
=
𝑃(𝑃)

0.7 × 0.3
=
0.74

= 0.28
The probability that the student studied under Prof. B given that he passed the core courses is
0.28.

Exercise 1: In an inter-IIT online coding contest, students from three coding clubs — CodeStorm,
AlgoForce, and BitMasters — participate. 40% of the participants are from CodeStorm, 35% from
AlgoForce, and 25% from BitMasters. The probability of winning a prize varies with each club's
training quality: 25% for CodeStorm, 30% for AlgoForce, and 20% for BitMasters. If a participant
is selected at random, what is the probability that the student wins a prize? If a randomly selected
participant is found to have won a prize, what is the probability that the participant is from
AlgoForce?

Exercise 2: In a university-level math Olympiad, students are divided into four groups based on
how they prepared: Self-study (20%), Department coaching (30%), Online courses (25%), and
Peer group discussions (25%). The qualifying rate for the final round from each group is: 40% for
Self-study, 60% for Department coaching, 50% for Online courses, and 35% for Peer groups. If a
student is picked at random, what is the probability that they qualify for the finals? If a randomly
selected participant is found to have won a prize, what is the probability that the participant
is from AlgoForce?