Dr.

Narendra Kumar 20-04-2025

Project Scheduling: CPM & PERT

Dr. Narendra Kumar
Assistant Professor, IPE Department

Dr. B. R. Ambedkar National Institute of Technology, Jalandhar

Email: kumarn@nitj.ac.in
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Web: https://sites.google.com/view/knarendra/

Alternative Project Representations

• Activity on Arc (A-O-A)- Arrow Diagrams- Event Oriented

Networks

• Activity on Node (A-O-N)- Precedence Networks- Activity

Oriented Networks

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Time Estimates

• Deterministic times (CPM) -A single time estimate is used

for each activity. This is taken from experts who have prior
knowledge and experience of the activity.
• Probabilistic times (PERT) -Three-time estimates
(Optimistic, Most likely and pessimistic) are commonly used
for each activity based on the consensus of the group.

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Critical Path Method (CPM)

• In Critical Path Method (CPM), activity times represent the

duration required to complete a specific task or activity in a
project.
• These times are crucial for determining the critical path,
which is the longest sequence of dependent activities that
dictate the project's minimum completion time.

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Types of Activity Times

Activity
Time

Start Time Finish Time

Earliest Latest Start Earliest Latest

Start Time Time Finish Time Finish Time

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Contd…

• Earliest Start Time (ES) – The earliest time an activity can

start, assuming all preceding activities are completed as
soon as possible.
• Earliest Finish Time (EF) – The earliest time an activity can
finish, calculated as:
𝐸𝐹=𝐸𝑆+𝐷𝑢𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛
• Latest Start Time (LS) – The latest time an activity can start
without delaying the project's completion.
• Latest Finish Time (LF) – The latest time an activity can
finish without delaying the project, calculated as:
𝐿𝑆=𝐿𝐹−𝐷𝑢𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛
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Critical Path
• Key Concepts:
• Project activities are estimated using expert judgment based on
past experience.
• The project network consists of multiple paths from the start to
the end.
• The critical path is the longest path, determining the minimum
project completion time.
• Delay in any critical activity directly delays the entire project.
• Why Critical Path Matters?
Ensures timely project completion
Identifies crucial tasks requiring close monitoring
Helps in project optimization (crashing, scheduling flexibility)
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Methods to Identify the Critical Path

▪ Brute Force Method (Path Enumeration)
✓ Lists all paths and selects the longest one.
✓ Useful for project crashing but inefficient for large projects.
▪ Forward and Backward Pass Approach
✓ Forward Pass: Calculates earliest start (ES) & earliest finish
(EF).
✓ Backward Pass: Determines latest start (LS) & latest finish (LF).
▪ Float (Slack) in Scheduling
✓ Total Float: Maximum delay without affecting project
completion.
✓ Free Float: Delay possible without affecting successor
activities.
✓ Independent & Safety Float: Extra flexibility for specific
conditions.
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Critical Path Determination by Enumeration

• Simplest approach in concept is to enumerate all the paths

in a project network along with their lengths.
• Then it is easy to compute the longest path or the critical
path which signifies the minimum project duration.

Sample project network (A-O-A) with indicated activity durations in days.

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Contd…

• 1-3-4-6 length 15
• 1-3-5-6 length 21
• 1-3-4-5-6 length 23
• 2-3-5-6 length 19
• 2-3-4-6 length 13
• 2-3-4-5-6 length 21
• In this example, the critical path is 1-3-4-5-6 with a length
23 days.

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Contd…

• A more systematic procedure for the enumeration of all the

paths is a tree search as outlined below:
• Step 1 In the case of multiple sources, create a dummy
single source as the starting source (in the above example
imagine a node 0 with arcs going to nodes 1 and 2) and
treat it as the beginning node at level 1.
• Step 2 For each level k examine the nodes and for each
node determine the successor arcs in the network placing
them in level k + 1.
• Step 3 Continue the process in step 2 till all paths terminate
in the final node.

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Contd…

• This process applied to network yields the tree.

Tree representation for the network

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Contd…

• It is seen from the tree that there are four paths terminating
at level 4 and two at level 2.
• These can be traced from the tree along with their lengths
as indicated below:

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EVENT ORIENTED ALGORITHMS FOR A-O-A

NETWORKS
• The enumeration algorithm is not a practical method of
computing the critical path.
• A more practical approach is a procedure based on the
forward and backward pass computation.
• This involves scanning the network from source to sink and
then from sink to source in topological order and assigning
the event times.

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Contd…

• The algorithm to determine the earliest start times consists

of the following steps:
i. For all starting nodes i, assign Ei = 0, or S, the project start
date.
ii. Ej = Max{Ei + tij} over all predecessors i of j, where tij is
the duration of arc (ij).
iii. Continue step (ii) till all nodes are numbered.
The values of Ei have the interpretation of the earliest start times up
to node i.
Thus, the duration of the critical path is max (Ek), over all the set of
last nodes k. In case of a unique terminal, the value

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Contd…

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Contd…

• Once the forward pass is done to obtain the earliest

occurrence times, a backward pass is done to generate the
latest occurrence times of all nodes.
• This procedure starts from the last node(s) and proceeds in
reverse order to the initial node(s).
• The backward pass may be stated as follows:
i. The latest occurrence time of the last nodes, Ln = length
of critical path.
ii. Li = min{Lj – tij} for all successors j of node i.
iii. Continue step (ii) till all nodes are numbered.

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Contd…

• The Li values so computed have the interpretation of the

latest occurrence of all the nodes.

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Contd…

Earliest and latest occurrence times of nodes in A-O-A network

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Float

• Float, also known as slack, is the amount of time an activity

can be delayed without affecting the overall project
duration.
• Relax or Delay provided to any activity
Float= Time Provided- Duration
Types of Float
1. Total Float
2. Free Float
3. Independent Float

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Types

• Total Float (TF)

• The maximum time an activity can be delayed without delaying
the project completion.
• If TF = 0, the activity is critical.
• Free Float (FF)
• The amount of time an activity can be delayed without delaying
the earliest start of its successor activity.
• Independent Float (IF)
• The time an activity can be delayed without affecting the early
start of the next activity and without assuming any delay (LF) in
the predecessor.

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Contd…

tij
i j
Ei Ej
Li Lj

• T.F.= Time Provided-Duration Ei Li Ej Lj

= (Lj-Ei)-tij
• F.F.= Time Provided-Duration IF= (Ej-Li)-tij

= (Ej-Ei)-tij
• I.F.= Time Provided-Duration F.F = (Ej-Ei)-tij
= (Ej-Li)-tij
T.F.=(Lj-Ei)-tij

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Contd…

• Earliest and latest start and finish times of activities

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Example

F(3)
3 6

B(8) I(2)
D(6)
A(2) H(5)
2 5 8
1

E(3)
J(8)
C(10)
4 7
G(7)

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Contd..

E3=10 E6=13
L3=16 L6=25
F(3)
3 6

D(6) I(2)
E1=0 E2=2 B(8) E8=27
L1=0 L2=2 E5=16 L8=27
A(2) L5=22 H(5)
2 5 8
1

E(3)
C(10) J(8)
4 7
G(7)
E4=12 E7=19
L4=12 L7=19

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Cond…
Activity tij Start Finish Float

Earliest Latest Earliest Latest Total Free Indepen

dent

1-2 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 0
2-3 8 2 8 10 16 6 0 0
2-4 10 2 2 12 12 0 0 0
3-5 6 10 16 16 22 6 0 -6
3-6 3 10 22 13 25 12 0 -6
4-5 3 12 19 15 22 7 1 1
4-7 7 12 12 19 19 0 0 0
5-8 5 16 22 21 27 6 6 0
6-8 2 13 25 15 27 12 12 0
7-8 8 19 19 27 27 0 0 0
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Example of A-O-A Network

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Draw Network Diagram

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Draw Network Diagram

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Conduct Forward Pass (A-O-A)

• Initialization:
• Ei = 0 (or The project start time say ‘S’(applicable to all source nodes)
• Ej = Max (Ei+tij) for all predecessor nodes i of node j being investigated (set B(j))

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Conduct Backward Pass

• Initialization:
• Ln (or the latest occurrence of all ending nodes) = Project Duration ‘T’ as
determined in the forward pass
• Li = Min (Lj - tij) over all successor nodes j of node i being investigated, say (set A(j))

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Early and Late Schedule for Example 1

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Find The Critical Path (A-O-A)

• Identify the critical activities, i.e. the activities that have zero total float or slack, here
the activities; b-d-e-g-I are critical, therefore constitute a critical path.

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• Is it necessary that an activity joining critical nodes is critical ?

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Critical Path Method (CPM) using an Activity On

Node (AON) network

Activity Predecessor Time

(Weeks)
A --- 2
B --- 3
C A 2
D A, B 4
E C 4
F C 3
G D, E 5
H F, G 2

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AON Network

F
A C
H
E
Start
B D G

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Contd…Forward Pass
F

A C
3

2 2
H
E
st
2
4
0

B D G

3 4 5

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Contd…Forward Pass
4 F 7

0 A 2 2 C 4
3

2 2
13 H 15
4 E 8
0 st 0
2
4
0

0 B 3 3 D 7 8 G 13

3 4 5

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Contd…Backward Pass
4 F 7

0 A 2 2 C 4
10 3 13

0 2 2 2 2 4
13 H 15
4 E 8
0 st 0
13 2 15
4 4 8
0 0 0

0 B 3 3 D 7 8 G 13

1 3 4 4 4 8 8 5 13

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Float/Slack Calculation
4 F 7

2 C 4 6 6
0 A 2
0 0 10 3 13
0 0
0 2 2 2 2 4
13 H 15
4 E 8
0 0
0 st 0 0 0
13 2 15
0 0 4 4 8
0 0 0

0 B 3 3 D 7 8 G 13
1 1 1 1 0 0
1 3 4 4 4 8 8 5 13

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Float/Slack Calculation
4 F 7

2 C 4 6 6
0 A 2
0 0 10 3 13
0 0
0 2 2 2 2 4
13 H 15
4 E 8
0 0
0 st 0 0 0
13 2 15
0 0 4 4 8
0 0 0

0 B 3 3 D 7 8 G 13
1 1 1 1 0 0
1 3 4 4 4 8 8 5 13

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Example
Activity Time
(Weeks)
A 3
B 5 C F
C 4 G
D 2 A D
E 5 B
F 3 E
G 6

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Programme Evaluation Review Technique (PERT)

• We have already covered critical path method basic

project scheduling in which the activity times were
deterministic, and we used to find out the critical path,
which is called CPM
• However, in many practical situations the activity times
may not be exactly estimated or determined, therefore
now we have project scheduling with probabilistic activity
times.
• Here, we shall be discussing with the basic PERT model that
deals with uncertain activity times or random activity
durations, that can be accommodated in the project
scheduling framework using the basic PERT methodology.
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PERT Technique
• The essential problem here is that activity durations are
uncertain and therefore
• In PERT, for each activity in the project has 3-time estimates are
assumed. These time estimates are as follows:
• The optimistic time (a):
situation where everything goes favorably
• The most likely time (m):
between these two extremes, an estimate of time which refer
to as the most likely time ‘m which would the mode of the
distribution of the activity duration in that particular set.
• The pessimistic time (b):
the longest likely time that particular activity take under the
worst possible circumstances
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Time Estimates of PERT

• Mean of activity time is like a weighted average of the

optimistic, the pessimistic and the most likely times
• we get this particular value of the mean of the activity
duration and then in standard PERT computations the
variance of the activity duration is simply computed as (b-a)
divided by 6 whole squared
• Here, b-a would in fact be the range of the distribution

Mean of activity time

Variance of an activity:

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Basic PERT Procedure

1. Compute the mean and variance of all the activities times
using probabilistic time estimates (a, m, & b).
2. Conduct forward and backward pass on the project
network with expected times of all the activities.
3. Identify the critical path.
4. Obtain the variance of critical path by adding variance of
activities
5. Obtain the distribution of the Project Duration.
6. Make probability statement about the Project as follows:
• Chance of meeting the due date.
• Probability of exceeding a given ceiling date.
• Probability that the project duration is confirmed to an interval of
time
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Example of A-O-A Network

Activity Predecessor Time Estimates

a m b
a (1-2) -- 2 4 8
b (1-3) -- 4 6 10
c (2-3) a 6 6 6
d (2-4) a 2 8 14
e (2-5) a 6 8 12
f (3-4) b,c 9 3 15
g (4-6) d,f 8 16 20
h (4-5) d,f 4 4 4
i (5-6) e,h 4 8 10

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Step 1

• Step.1 Compute the mean and variance of all the activities

times using probabilistic time estimates (a, m, & b).
Time Estimates Mean Variance
Activity Predecessor a m b (t)
a (1-2) -- 2 4 8 4.33 1.00
b (1-3) -- 4 6 10 6.33 1.00
c (2-3) a 6 6 6 6.00 0.00
d (2-4) a 2 8 14 8.00 4.00
e (2-5) a 6 8 12 8.33 1.00
f (3-4) b,c 9 3 15 6.00 1.00
g (4-6) d,f 8 16 20 15.33 4.00
h (4-5) d,f 4 4 4 4.00 0.00
i (5-6) e,h 4 8 10 7.67 1.00

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Construct Network

2 E
5
8.33 I
A
4.33
7.66
1 D 8 H 6
C
66 4
B
G 15.33
6.33 F
3 4
6

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2 (a) Conduct Forward Pass

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2 (b) Conduct Backward Pass

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Determine the Critical Path

• Total Duration of the Project = 31.66 days

• Critical Path = A-C-F-G =4.33 + 6 + 6 + 15.33
• = 31.66 Days
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Determine the Critical Path

Activity Predecessor t ES EF LS LF Total Critical

Float Activities
a (1-2) -- 4.33 0 4.33 0.00 4.33 0.00 a
b (1-3) -- 6.33 0 6.33 4.00 10.33 4.00
c (2-3) a 6.00 4.33 10.33 4.33 10.33 0.00 c
d (2-4) a 8.00 4.33 12.33 8.33 16.33 4.00
e (2-5) a 8.33 4.33 12.66 15.66 23.99 11.33
f (3-4) b,c 6.00 10.33 16.33 10.33 16.33 0.00 f
g (4-6) d,f 15.33 16.33 31.66 16.33 31.66 0.00 g
h (4-5) d,f 4.00 16.33 20.33 19.99 23.99 3.66
i (5-6) e,h 7.67 20.33 28.00 23.99 31.66 3.66

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Determine The Variance of Critical Path

Time Estimates Mean Variance

Activity Predecessor a m b (t)
a (1-2) -- 2 4 8 4.33 1.00
b (1-3) -- 4 6 10 6.33 1.00
c (2-3) a 6 6 6 6.00 0.00
d (2-4) a 2 8 14 8.00 4.00
e (2-5) a 6 8 12 8.33 1.00
f (3-4) b,c 9 3 15 6.00 1.00
g (4-6) d,f 8 16 20 15.33 4.00
h (4-5) d,f 4 4 4 4.00 0.00
i (5-6) e,h 4 8 10 7.67 1.00

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Obtain the Distribution of the Project Duration

• Identify the distribution of the project duration. The

project duration follows a normal distribution with a mean
equal to 31.66 and a variance equal to 6.
• That means the standard deviation is 2.45 for this particular
project.

-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
24.31 31.66 39.01

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Confidence Intervals

• Chances or the probability that the project is completed

within
✓ Mean ± 1σ = 68% (29.21 - 34.11)*
✓ Mean ± 2σ = 95% (26.76 - 36.56)
✓ Mean ± 3σ = 99% (24.31 - 39.01)
• * between ± 1σ limits 68% of area of the normal distribution lies, i.e. there are 68%
chances are that project will be completed between 29.21 - 34.11 days

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Probability of completing the project

• To determine the probability of completing the project

within a given time (T), use the Z-score formula:

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Make the Statement

• Staement-1
• What is the probability of meeting a target date or duration
for the project completion?
• Considering a target duration of say 36 days for 6 days
working week, then what is the probability that the
project will be completed after 36 days?
• Calculate Standard Normal Deviate;

=1.77

-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
The area under the curve
24.31 31.66 1.77 39.01 towards left side of 1.77
=0.9616
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Find the area under the curve

• The area under the curve towards left side of 1.77 = 0.9616
• Referring the Z table, for Z= 1.77, the corresponding area is
0.9616, i.e. 96.16 % we are confident that the project will be
completed within the targeted days.

0.9616

-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
24.31 31.66 1.77
39.01

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Statement-2

• Consider the project has ceiling of 28 days, the manager

wants to know;
• What is the probability of exceeding the ceiling of say 28
days?
• Here also, calculate the ‘standard normal deviate’ (Z) as
follows:
28−31.66
Z=
2.45

−3.66
Z= = -1.49
2.45

The corresponding area from the normal (z) table = 0.0681

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Find the area under the curve

• The area under the curve towards left side of -1.49 = 0.0681
• Which is towards left side of -1,49 and is merely 6.81% of
the total area. But we are interested in area towards right
side of -1.49 i.e.1-0.0681= 0.9319, i.e. 93.19 % is the
probability that the project will exceeds the ceiling of 28
days.

0.9319

0.0681
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
-1.49
24.31 31.66 39.01

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Statement-3

• Consider the project has ceiling range of 28-36 days, the

manager wants to know;
• What is the probability of completing the project between
28 to 36 days?
• The corresponding area between (-1.49 and 1.77) from the
normal (z) table:
i.e. Probability = 0.9616 - 0.0681
Probability = 0.8935 = 89.35%
0.8935

0.0681 0.9616
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
-1.49 1.77
24.31 31.66 39.01

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Activity Predecessor Optimistic (a) Most Likely (m) Pessimistic (b)

A - 2 4 6
B A 1 2 3
C A 2 3 4
D B 1 3 5
E C 2 4 6
F D, E 3 4 5

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Activity TE Calculation TE Variance

A (2 + 4×4 + 6)/6 = 24/6 4.0 ((6−2)/6)² = 0.444

B (1 + 4×2 + 3)/6 = 14/6 2.33 ((3−1)/6)² = 0.111

C (2 + 4×3 + 4)/6 = 18/6 3.0 ((4−2)/6)² = 0.111

D (1 + 4×3 + 5)/6 = 19/6 3.17 ((5−1)/6)² = 0.444

E (2 + 4×4 + 6)/6 = 24/6 4.0 ((6−2)/6)² = 0.444

F (3 + 4×4 + 5)/6 = 24/6 4.0 ((5−3)/6)² = 0.111

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Predecess
Activity a m b TE Variance
or
A - 2 4 6 4.00 0.444
B A 1 2 3 2.33 0.111
C A 2 3 4 3.00 0.111
D B 1 3 5 3.17 0.444
E C 2 4 6 4.00 0.444
F D, E 3 4 5 4.00 0.111

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Forward Pass (Early Start, Early Finish)

Activity ES TE EF
A 0.0 4.0 4.0
B 4.0 2.33 6.33
C 4.0 3.0 7.0
D 6.33 3.17 9.5
E 7.0 4.0 11.0
F 11.0 4.0 15.0

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Backward Pass (Late Start, Late Finish)

Activity LF TE LS
F 15.0 4.0 11.0
D 11.0 3.17 7.83
E 11.0 4.0 7.0
B 7.83 2.33 5.5
C 7.0 3.0 4.0
A 4.0 4.0 0.0

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Activity ES EF LS LF Float
A 0 4.0 0.0 4.0 0.0
B 4.0 6.33 5.5 7.83 1.5
C 4.0 7.0 4.0 7.0 0.0
D 6.33 9.5 7.83 11.0 1.33
E 7.0 11.0 7.0 11.0 0.0
F 11.0 15.0 11.0 15.0 0.0

Activities with zero float form the critical path.

Critical Path: A → C → E → F
Project Duration: 15.0 days (expected)

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Probability of finishing the project

• Probability of finishing the project on or before a given

target duration (T = 16 days)
Activity Variance
A 0.444
C 0.111
E 0.444
F 0.111

Total Variance (σ²) of Critical Path:

σ2=0.444+0.111+0.444+0.111=1.11

Standard Deviation of Critical Path= σ= 1.11 ≈ 1.05

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Contd…

• Probability of Completion within 16 Days

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Contd…

• Now, using the Z-table (standard normal distribution):

• Z = 0.95 → Probability ≈ 0.8289
• So, there's approximately an 82.89% chance the project will
finish within 16 days.

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PERT Problem: Product Launch Preparation

Determine the expected project duration and the probability of completing it
within 28 days.

Most Likely Pessimistic

Activity Description Predecessors Optimistic (a)
(m) (b)

A Market Research - 2 4 6

B Design Prototype A 3 6 15

C Legal Approvals A 2 5 8

D Product Testing B 4 6 8

Marketing
E C 2 4 6
Strategy Planning

F Logistics Planning C 1 3 5

Final Launch
G D, E, F 2 3 4
Event Prep
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Tasks

• Compute the Expected Time (TE) and Variance for each

activity.
• Draw the network diagram based on dependencies.
• Identify all possible paths.
• Determine the Critical Path and Expected Project Duration.
• Compute the probability of completing the project within 28
days.

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Contd…

Activity ES EF LS LF Float = LS - ES
A 0 4 0 4 0
B 4 11 4 11 0
C 4 9 8 13 4
D 11 17 11 17 0
E 9 13 13 17 4
F 9 12 14 17 5
G 17 20 17 20 0

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GANTT CHART
▪ We must know the dependence between jobs/activities/tasks.
▪ We must know the respective jobs/activitys/tasks early start time
and late start time, remembering that there are external factors
which may affect the start and end time of jobs/activities/tasks.
▪ This chart gives us an over all picture of the number of days which
will be required to finish a project.

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GANTT CHART
Early Start Schedule

JOB DESCRIPTION DAYS

Clear for construction
Concrete forms

Reinforcement
Pour concrete

Clear grade
Sewer lines

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GANTT CHART
Late Start Schedule

JOB DESCRIPTION DAYS

Clear for construction

Concrete forms

Reinforcement

Pour concrete

Clear grade

Sewer lines

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THANK YOU

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