NETWORK ANALYSIS : PERT &

CPM
 Introduction
• Network analysis is one of the important tools for project management.
• Whether major or minor, a project has to be completed in a definite time & at a definite
cost.
• The necessary information of any particular data can be represented as a project network.
• These techniques are very useful for planning, scheduling and executing large-time bound
projects involving careful co-ordination of variety of complex and interrelated activities.
 Objectives of network analysis
• Helpful in planning
• Inter-relationship of various activities
• Cost control
• Minimisation of maintenance time
• Reduction of time
• Control on idle resources
• Avoiding delays, interruptions
Applications of network analysis
• Planning, scheduling, monitoring and control of large and complex
projects.
• Construction of factories, highways, building, bridges, cinemas etc.
• Helpful to army for its missile development.
• Assembly line scheduling
• Installation of computers and high tech machineries
• To make marketing strategies
Methodology Involved in Network Analysis
Describing the Project

Diagramming the network

Estimating the time of completion

Deterministic
estimates

Probabilistic
estimates

Monitoring the project progress

 Key Terminologies
• Activity : All projects may be viewed as composed of activities. It is the smallest unit of
work consuming both time& resources that project manager should schedule & control.

• An activity is represented by an arrow in network diagram

 Event
• The beginning & end of an activities are called as events.
• Events are represented by numbered circles called nodes.
Activity
i j
Event Event
start finish
 Types of Events
• Merge event

• Burst event

• Merge &
Burst Event
 Classification of activities
• Predecessor activity: Activities that must be completed immediately prior to the start
of another activity are called predecessor activities.
• Successor activity : activities that cannot be started until one or more of other
activities are completed but immediately succeed them are called successor activities.
• Concurrent activities: activities that can be accomplished together are known as
concurrent activities.
• Dummy activity: An activity which does not consume any resource but merely depicts
the dependence of one activity on other is called dummy activity. It is introduced in a
network when two or more parallel activities have the same start and finish nodes.
 Path & Network
• An unbroken chain of activity arrows connecting the initial event to some
other event is called a path.

• A network is the graphical representation of logically & sequentially

connected arrows & nodes representing activities & events of a project . It is
a diagram depicting precedence relationships between different activities.
 Errors in network logic
• Looping : looping is known as cycling error and creates an impossible situation and it appears
that none of the activities could ever be completed.
• Dangling : sometimes a project network includes an activity which does not fit into the end
objective of the project and is carried out without any result related with completion of the
project . Such an error in network is called dangling
 Guidelines for Network Construction
• A complete network diagram should have one start point & one finish point.
• The flow of the diagram should be from left to right.
• Arrows should not be crossed unless it is completely unavoidable.
• Arrows should be kept straight & not curved or bent.
• Angle between arrows should as large as possible.
• Each activity must have a tail or head event. No two or more activities may have same tail &
head events.
• Once the diagram is complete the nodes should be numbered from left to right. It should
then be possible to address each activity uniquely by its tail & head event.
 Advantages
• Planning & controlling projects
• Flexibility
• Designation of responsibilities
• Achievement of objective with least cost
• Better managerial control
 Limitations of PERT /CPM
• Network diagrams should have clear starting & ending points , which are independent of
each other which may not be possible in real life.
• Another limitation is that it assumes that manager should focus on critical activities.
• Resources will be available when needed for completion for an activity is again unreal.
 Difficulties
• Difficulty in securing realistic time estimates.
• The planning & implementation of networks requires trained staff.
• Developing clear logical network is troublesome.
Example

Activity Predecessor
activity C
A none 2 4 F
A
B none
C A D
1 6
D A
E B B
3 G
F C 5
E
G D&E
Draw the network diagram for the following

Activity Predecessor
activity
A none

B A

C A

D B

E C

F D ,E
 3 D
B
A F
5 6
1 2

C
4 E
Activity Predecessor
activity
3 D
A none B
A F
B A
5 6
1 2
C A

D B C
4 E
E C

F D ,E
Difference between PERT & CPM
 Critical Path Method
• Those activities which contribute directly to the overall duration of the project constitute critical
activities, the critical activities form a chain running through the network which is called critical
path.

• Critical event : the slack of an event is the difference between the latest & earliest events time.
The events with zero slack time are called as critical events.

• Critical activities : The difference between latest start time & earliest start time of an activity
will indicate amount of time by which the activity can be delayed without affecting the total
project duration. The difference is usually called total float. Activities with 0 total float are called
as critical activities
 Critical path

• The critical path is the longest path in the network from

the starting event to ending event & defines the minimum
time required to complete the project.
• The critical path is denoted by darker or double lines.
For activity 1-2, E = 0 + 15 = 15

For event 6, L6 = L7 -14 = 54-14= 40

• Float : There are many activities where the maximum time available to
finish the activity is more than the time required to complete the
activity. The difference between the two times is known as float
available for the activity.
• There are four types of float:
• Total float : It is the spare time available when all preceding activities
occur at earliest possible times & all succeeding activities occur at latest
possible times.
Critical Path = 1-2-3-4-6-7= 54 weeks
• Free float : It is the time available when all preceding activities occur at the
earliest possible time & all succeeding activities also occur at the earliest
possible times.
• Free float = Total float - head event slack
• Independent Float : It may be defined as the amount of time by which the
start of an activity can be delayed without affecting the earliest start time of
any successor activity , assuming that preceding activity has finished at its latest
finish time.
Independent Float = free float – tail event slack
• Interfering Float: It is that part of the total float which causes a reduction in
the floats of the succeeding activities. it can be defined as the difference between
the latest finish time of the activity under consideration and the earliest start time of the
following activity, or zero, whichever is larger. i.e = (L - E) = TF-FF = head event slack
Interfering Float = Total Float – Free Float
Example 2
3
E TLS TEF L
Example 3
Method 3: The various paths and their durations are calculated
 PERT
PERT is designed for scheduling complex projects that involve many inter-related tasks.
it improves planning process because:
1. It forms planner to define the projects various components activities.
2. It provides a basis for normal time estimates & yet allows for some measure of
optimism or pessimism in estimating the completion dates.
3. It shows the effects of changes to overall plans they contemplated.
4. It provides built in means for ongoing evaluation of the plan.
 ESTIMATING ACTIVITY TIMES
• Optimistic time ( t0 ) : is that time estimate of an activity when everything
is assumed to go as per plan. In other words it is the estimate of minimum
possible time which an activity takes in completion under ideal conditions.
• Most likely time ( tm ) : the time which the activity will take most frequently
if repeated number of times.
• Pessimistic time ( tp) : the unlikely but possible performance time if
whatever could go wrong , goes wrong in series. In other words it is the
longest time the activity can take.
 EXPECTED TIME

• The times are combined statically to develop the

expected time te

• Standard deviation

• Variance
 STEPS INVOLVED IN PERT
• Develop list of activities.
• A rough network for PERT is drawn.
• Events are numbered from left to right.
• Time estimates for each activity are obtained.
• Expected time for each activity is calculated : to+4tm+tp / 6
• Using these expected times calculate earliest & latest finish & start
times of activities.
• Estimate the critical path.
• Using this estimate compute the probability of meeting a specified
completion date by using the standard normal equation
Z = Due date – expected date of completion
standard deviation of critical path
QUESTION : The table shows activities of project. Duration (days)

JOB OPTIMISTIC MOST PESSIMISTIC

LIKELY

1-2 1 4 7
1-3 5 10 15
2-4 3 3 3
2-6 1 4 7
3-4 10 15 26
3-5 2 4 6
4-5 5 5 5
5-6 2 5 8
1. Draw the network & find expected project completion time.
2. What is the probability that it would be completed in 41 days.
 Variance of critical path
Activity To Tp variance

1-3 5 15 2.77
3-4 10 26 7.11
4-5 5 5 0
5-6 2 8 1
Total= 10.88
So, standard deviation = 3.30
Probability for completing the job in 41 days.
Z = DUE DATE – EXPECTED DATE OF COMPLETION
S.D. OF CRITICAL PATH
= 41 – 36
3.30
= 1.51
The tabulated value of corresponding to calculated value i.e. 1.51
is .4345
So probability is .5 + .4345 = .9345 i.e. 93.45% that project will
be completed on 41 day.
QUESTION:
Activity predecessor time estimates (weeks)

activity Preceding to tm tp
activity
A - 2 3 10
B - 2 3 4
C A 1 2 3
D A 4 6 14
E B 4 5 12
F C 3 4 5
G D,E 1 1 7
• Find the expected duration and variance of each activity.
• What is the expected project length?
• Calculate the variance &standard deviation of the project
length.
activity to Tm tp te variance

A 2 3 10 4 16/9
B 2 3 4 3 1/9
C 1 2 3 2 1/9
D 4 6 14 7 25/9
E 4 5 12 6 16/9
F 3 4 5 4 1/9
G 1 2 7 2 1
Various paths &expected project length
A-C-F = 4+2+4 = 10
A-D-G = 4+7+2 = 13 CRITICAL PATH
B-E-G = 3+6+2 = 11
Thus critical path is A-D-G with an expected length of 13
days. Hence the expected project length is 13 days.

Project variance = 16/9 + 25/9 + 1 = 50/9