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Chapter 13 Notes part-1.docx

The document explains random variables, which can be discrete or continuous, and their associated probability distributions. It details the expected value as a measure of the center of a distribution and provides examples of modeling random behavior, such as coin tosses and dice rolls. Additionally, it covers discrete probability distributions, particularly the binomial distribution, and includes examples of calculating probabilities using the binomial probability mass function and cumulative distribution function.

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6 views6 pages

Chapter 13 Notes part-1.docx

The document explains random variables, which can be discrete or continuous, and their associated probability distributions. It details the expected value as a measure of the center of a distribution and provides examples of modeling random behavior, such as coin tosses and dice rolls. Additionally, it covers discrete probability distributions, particularly the binomial distribution, and includes examples of calculating probabilities using the binomial probability mass function and cumulative distribution function.

Uploaded by

langstarsofficial
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© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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1.

Random Variables: A random variable is a variable that can take different values
depending on the outcome of a random event. It is used to represent the outcome of a
random process. Random variables can be:

 Discrete: Takes on specific, countable values (e.g., the roll of a die or number of
heads in a coin toss).
 Continuous: Takes on any value within a certain range (e.g., the time it takes for a
car to travel a certain distance).

2. Probability Distributions: A probability distribution describes the likelihood of


each possible outcome of a random variable. A probability distribution describes how
the probabilities are distributed over the possible values of a random variable.There are two
main types:

 Discrete Probability Distributions: Used for discrete random variables (e.g., rolling
a fair die). One common example is the binomial distribution, which models the
number of successes in a fixed number of trials.
 Continuous Probability Distributions: Used for continuous random variables (e.g.,
the time it takes for a process to complete). One common example is the normal
distribution, which models many natural phenomena and is symmetric around its
mean.

3. Expected Value: The expected value (or mean) is a measure of the center of a
probability distribution. It represents the long-term average or the "center" of the
distribution if you were to repeat the random experiment many times. Mathematically:

 For a discrete random variable, the expected value is calculated as:

where Xi are the possible outcomes and P(Xi) is the probability of each outcome.

For a continuous random variable, the expected value is calculated using an integral:

where f(x) is the probability density function.


Examples of Random Behavior Modeling:

1. Coin Toss: If you toss a fair coin, there are two possible outcomes: heads (H) or tails
(T). We can model this with a discrete random variable X, where:
o X=1 for heads, and X=0 for tails. The probability of each outcome is
P(X=1)=0.5and P(X=0)=0.5 The expected value E(X) would be:

So, the expected value is 0.5, meaning that, on average, if you toss the coin many
times, you'll get heads 50% of the time.

2. Dice Roll: When you roll a fair six-sided die, the random variable X can take any
integer value between 1 and 6, with each value having a probability of P(X=x)=1/6
for x=1,2,3,4,5,6. The expected value for a fair die roll is:

3.

So, on average, if you roll the die many times, you'll get a result close to 3.5.

4. Queueing System: Suppose you're modeling the number of people waiting in line at a
store. The number of customers arriving per minute is a random variable. By
modeling the arrival rate with a Poisson distribution, you can calculate the
probability of having a certain number of people in line at any given time.
1. Discrete Probability Distribution

A discrete probability distribution is used when the random variable can only take a finite
or countably infinite number of distinct values (i.e., you can list all the possible values).

 Properties:
o Each possible outcome has an associated probability.
o The sum of all the probabilities must equal 1, i.e.,

where Xi represents the possible values of the random variable.

Examples of Discrete Distributions:

 Binomial Distribution: It describes the number of successes in a fixed number of


independent Bernoulli trials, each with the same probability of success. It's useful in
situations where you're dealing with repeated independent trials (e.g., flipping a coin
10 times and counting the number of heads).

Formula for the probability mass function (PMF) of the binomial distribution:
Binomial CDF and Binomial PDF examples

 Binomial PDF: The Probability Density Function gives the probability of getting exactly k
successes in n trials.
 Binomial CDF: The Cumulative Distribution Function gives the probability of getting at
most k successes in n trials, i.e., the sum of the probabilities of getting 0, 1, 2, ..., k successes.

Example Problem:

You are flipping a fair coin 6 times (i.e., n=6). The probability of getting heads on each flip
is p=0.5, and you are interested in the number of heads (successes). We will calculate the
following:

1. The probability of getting exactly 3 heads (Binomial PDF).


2. The probability of getting at most 3 heads (Binomial CDF).

Verify

Binomial PDF: The probability of getting exactly 3 heads in 6 flips is 0.3125 (31.25%).

Binomial CDF: The probability of getting at most 3 heads in 6 flips is 0.65625


(65.625%).

1. Using the Binomial Formula for Binomial PDF:

The Binomial PDF gives the probability of getting exactly k successes (heads) in nnn trials.

Problem:

Find the probability of getting exactly 3 heads in 6 flips of a fair coin (where p=0.5).

Step-by-Step Solution:

1. Identify the values:


o n=6 (the number of trials, i.e., 6 flips),
o p=0.5 (the probability of heads on each flip),
o k=3 (the exact number of heads you're looking for).
2. Binomial Probability Formula:
2. Using the Binomial Formula for Binomial CDF:

The Binomial CDF gives the cumulative probability of getting at most kkk successes
(heads). It is the sum of probabilities for 0, 1, 2, ..., kkk successes.

Problem:

Find the probability of getting at most 3 heads in 6 flips of a fair coin.

Step-by-Step Solution:

For Binomial CDF, we need to calculate the probability for each of the possible outcomes: 0,
1, 2, and 3 heads, then sum them.

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