Unit 3: INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY
Introduction
Sometimes it takes chances to decide on something. The higher the chances
of winning or gaining, the higher the chances to pursue on that particular decision.
This idea is suitable to students who need to be immersed in making rational
choices. It can be best explained in this module.
Learning Outcomes
At the end of this module the student will be able to:
1. Learn and explain random variables and probability distributions.
2. Understand and discuss expected values, mean and variance
Lesson 1: Random Variables and Probability Distributions
According to Belecina et. al (2016), a random variable is a function that associates
a real number to each element in the sample space. It is a variable whose values are
determined by chance. Some examples are tossing a coin, drawing an ace from a
deck of cards, getting defective item from a box with defective items and non-
defective items, and others. The set of all possible outcomes of an experiment is
called the sample space.
Discrete Random Variable
Discrete Random Variable is a random variable defined over a discrete
sample space. A discrete sample space is a sample space which is finite or
countable. Example of this is tossing a coin until head occurs.
Continuous Random Variable
This refers to a random variable defined over a continuous sample
space. Usually, it represents measured observations that include height,
weight, distance, temperature, length of life, etc.
Binomial Distribution
The binomial distribution is the discrete probability distribution that gives only two
possible results in an experiment, either Success or Failure. For example, in tossing a
coin, there could be only two possible outcomes: heads or tails, and if any test is taken,
then there could be only two results: pass or fail. This distribution is also called a binomial
probability distribution.
There are two parameters n and p used here in a binomial distribution. The
variable ‘n’ states the number of times the experiment runs and the variable ‘p’ tells the
probability of any one outcome. Suppose a die is thrown randomly 10 times, then the
probability of getting 2 for anyone throw is ⅙. When you throw the dice 10 times, you have
a binomial distribution of n = 10 and p = ⅙. Learn the formula to calculate the two outcome
distribution among multiple experiments along with solved examples here in this article.
Source: https://byjus.com/math/binomial-distribution/
Normal Distribution
According to Galliguez, T. et. al.(2016) the normal distribution is the
most important continuous probability distribution in the entire field of
statistics. The formula (for normal curves) was derived by Abraham de Moivre
(1667-1754). When p=.05, he observed that binomial distributions approach a
definite form as n increases. This limiting form is what is now known as a
normal distribution.
Lesson 2: Expected Values, Mean and Variance
Example: Tossing a single unfair die
For fun, imagine a weighted die (cheating!) so we have these probabilities:
1 2 3 4 5 6
0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5
Mean or Expected Value: μ
When we know the probability p of every value x we can calculate the
Expected Value (Mean) of X:
μ = Σxp
Note: Σ is Sigma Notation, and means to sum up.
To calculate the Expected Value:
multiply each value by its probability
sum them up
Example continued:
x 1 2 3 4 5 6
p 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5
xp 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 3
μ = Σxp = 0.1+0.2+0.3+0.4+0.5+3 = 4.5
The expected value is 4.5
Note: this is a weighted mean: values with higher probability have higher
contribution to the mean.
Variance: Var(X)
The Variance is:
Var(X) = Σx2p − μ2
To calculate the Variance:
square each value and multiply by its probability
sum them up and we get Σx2p
then subtract the square of the Expected Value μ2
Example continued:
x 1 2 3 4 5 6
p 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5
x2p 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.6 2.5 18
Σx2p = 0.1+0.4+0.9+1.6+2.5+18 = 23.5
Var(X) = Σx2p − μ2 = 23.5 - 4.52 = 3.25
The variance is 3.25
Suggested Readings
https://opentextbc.ca/introstatopenstax/chapter/mean-or-
expected-value-and-standard-deviation/
