LECTURE 6
Discrete Probability Distributions
Lecturer: Nguyen Thi Thu Van
Email: van.nguyen@ueh.edu.vn
Content
Random variables
Probability distributions of a random variable
Expected value and Variance
Common discrete probability distributions
Getting started by several simple examples
Tossing a fair coin three times
Possible events X = Heads
TTT
HTT,THT,TTH
HHT, HTH, THH
HHH
Tossing a fair coin four times
Possible events X = Heads
No Head
One Head
Two Heads
Three Heads
Four Heads
Then, what is a probability distribution?
A statistical function that can be depicted using
graphs or probability tables.
It describes the probability of different possible
values of a random variable.
Distributions come in many shapes with different
characteristics as defined by the mean, standard
deviation, skewness, and kurtosis.
Random Variables
A random variable is a function or rule that assigns
a numerical value to each outcome in the sample
space of a random experiment.
• A discrete random variable has a countable
number of distinct values (e.g. number of
classes you are taking).
• A continuous random variable produces
outcomes from a measurement (e.g. your
annual salary, waiting time for a bus, etc.)
Examples of Discrete Random Variable
Events Random Probability
Variable X = #B
GGG 0
GBG,GGB 1
GBB,BBG,BGB 2
BBB,BBB 3
Rolling a dice twice.
• Let X = the random variable which
represents the number of times 4 comes
up.
Then X could be 0, 1, or 2 times.
Tossing a coin 5 times.
• Let X = the random variable which
represents the number of heads.
Then X = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5.
Bernoulli Experiments
The success is merely meant to the event of interest.
Example of Continuous Random Variable
Probability Distributions
Random
Variables
Discrete Continuous
Random Variable Random Variable
Discrete Probability Distributions
Discrete Probability Density Function
Discrete Cumulative Distribution Function
Expected value and Variance
Expected Value
Tossing a fair coin four times
Possible events X = Heads
No Head 0 0
One Head 1 0.25
Two Heads 2 0.75
Three Heads 3 0.75
Four Heads 4 0.25
For example, a lottery ticket has a grand prize of
$28 million. The probability of winning the grand
prize is .000000023. What is the expected value
for this game?
Expected value of a random variable
• indicates its central or average value,
meaning that it gives a measure of the center
of the distribution of the random variable. It is
an important summary value of the
distribution of the random variable.
• uses probability to tell us what outcomes to
expect in the long run.
How Expected Values are Used in Our Daily Life?
Life insurance
You take out a fire insurance policy on your
home. The annual premium is $300. In case of
fire, the insurance company will pay you
$200,000. The probability of a house fire in your
area is 0.0002. Suppose the insurance company
sells 100,000 of these policies. What can the
company expect to earn?
Raffles/Lotteries
In a state lottery, a single digit is drawn from
each of four containers. Each container has 10
balls numbered 0 through 9.
To play, you choose a 4-digit number and pay
$1. If your number is drawn, you win $5000. If
your number is not drawn, you lose your dollar.
What is the expected value for this game?
A child asks his parents for some money. The parents
make the following offers.
Father’s offer: The child flips a coin. If the coin
lands heads up, the father will give the child $20. If
the coin lands tails up, the father will give the child
nothing.
Mother’s offer: The child rolls a 6-sided die. The
mother will give the child $3 for each dot on the up
side of the die.
Which offer has the greater expected value?
Prof. Kahneman and Prof. Tversky are given two options of investing as follows.
Variance vs. Standard Deviation
Example
σ (0 1)2 (.25) (1 1)2 (.50) (2 1)2 (.25) .50 .707
Possible number of heads
= 0, 1, or 2
Common Discrete Probability Distributions
Probability
Distributions
Discrete Continuous
Probability Distributions Probability Distributions
Uniform
Binomial
Hypergeometric
Geometric
Poisson
Uniform Distributions
PDF CDF
Possible events Sample Random Probability
space variable
Head H
T
Rolling a dice. X = the possible outcomes.
Then X has a uniform distribution as follows.
Uniform Distribution Characteristics
Example
In a large sample of three-digit lottery numbers, you would expect the
sample mean and standard deviation to be very close to 499.5 and
288.67, respectively.
For example, in Michigan’s daily
three-digit lottery, from January 1, 2010,
through December 31, 2010, there were
364 evening drawings. The mean of all the three-digit numbers drawn
over that period was 497.1 with a standard deviation of 289.5. These
sample results are extremely close to what would be expected.
Lotteries are frequently studied to make sure they are truly random.
Binomial Distributions
Binomial Probability Distribution
Example. On average, 20 percent of the
emergency room patients at Greenwood
General Hospital lack health insurance.
In a random sample of four patients, what is
the probability that two will be uninsured?
Answer. How many ways are there to select 2
uninsured patients from a group of 4 patients? = 4C2
Since patients are independent, the probability that
two will be uninsured, for example, at experiment 2
and experiment 4 is 0.22.(1-0.2)4-2
The probability that two will be uninsured
C 0.2 2.(1-0.2)4-2
4 2
Binomial Random Variables
Binomial Distribution Formula
n! X n X
P(X) p (1- p)
X ! (n X)!
P(X) = probability of X successes in n trials,
with probability of success p on each trial
X = number of ‘successes’ in sample,
(X = 0, 1, 2, ..., n)
n = sample size (number of trials
or observations)
p = probability of “success”
How to Calculate a Binomial Probability?
What is the probability of one success in five
observations if the probability of success is 0.1?
X = 1, n = 5, and p = 0.1
n!
P(X 1) p X (1 p ) n X
X!(n X)!
5!
(0.1)1 (1 0.1)51
1!(5 1)!
(5)(0.1)(0.9) 4
0.32805
Binomial Distribution Characteristics
Example 1. an P(X) n = 5 p = 0.1
μ np (5)(0.1) 0.5 .6
.4
σ np (1 - p ) (5)(0.1)(1 0.1) .2
0 X
0.6708 0 1 2 3 4 5
Example 2. an
μ np (5)(0.5) 2.5
P(X) n = 5 p = 0.5
.6
σ np (1 - p ) (5)(0.5)(1 0.5) .4
.2
1.118 0 X
0 1 2 3 4 5
Using Excel For The Binomial Distribution (n = 4, p = 0.1)
Hypergeometric Distributions
Let approach Hypergeometric Dist. by this example
Hypergeometric Probability Distribution
X = the number of successes in n dependent
Bernoulli trials.
n trials in a sample taken without replacement
from a finite population of size N. Thus, outcomes
of trials are dependent.
Then X has a hypergeometric distribution.
Hypergeometric distribution is similar to the
binomial except that trials are not independent.
Hypergeometric Distribution Formula
where
N = population size
s = number of items of interest in the population
N – s = number of events not of interest in the population
n = sample size
x = number of items of interest in the sample
n – x = number of events not of interest in the sample
Hypergeometric Distribution Characteristics
How to Calculate a Hypergeometric Probability?
The three different computers are selected from 10 in the
department. 4 of the 10 computers have illegal software
loaded. What is the probability that 2 of the 3 selected
computers have illegal software loaded?
N = 10 n=3
s=4 x=2
( 4 C2 )(6 C1 )
P(X 2 | 3,10,4) 0.3
(10 C3 )
The probability that 2 of the 3 selected computers have
illegal software loaded is 0.30, or 30%.
Using Excel for Hypergeometric Distribution (n = 8, N = 30, s = 10)
Geometric Distributions
Let approach Geometric Distribution by this example
Geometric Probability Distribution
Geometric Distribution Formula
Poisson Distributions
Poisson Probability Distribution
Please skip this page if you have not studied about series expansions.
Settings
You wish to count the number of times an event occurs
in a given area of opportunity (time, space, volume…)
The probability that an event occurs in one area of
opportunity is the same for all areas of opportunity
The number of events that occur in one area of
opportunity is independent of the number of events that
occur in the other areas of opportunity
The average number of events per unit is (lambda)
Probability Formula
e x
P( X x | )
x!
where
x = number of events in an area of opportunity
= expected number of events (average number of
events per unit)
e = base of the natural logarithm system (2.71828...)
Poisson Distribution Characteristics
Example
An average number of houses sold per day by a
real estate company is 2. What is the probability
that 3 houses will be sold tomorrow?
2
e λ x
e (2) 3
P(X 3 | 2)
x! 3!
(2.71828 2 )(2)3
0.18
3!
Graph of Poisson Probabilities
Graphically:
= 0.50
=
X 0.50
0 0.6065
1 0.3033
2 0.0758
3 0.0126
4 0.0016
5 0.0002
6 0.0000
P(X = 2 | =0.50) = 0.0758
7 0.0000
Poisson Distribution Shape
= 0.50 = 3.00
Example [events in an interval of time]
At an outpatient mental health clinic, appointment
cancellations occur at a mean rate of 1.5 per day
on a typical Wednesday.
What is the probability
that no cancellations will
occur on a particular
Wednesday?
Example [events in a space]
According to J.D. Power and Associates’ 2006 Initial
Quality Study, consumers reported on average 1.7
problems per vehicle with new 2006 Volkswagens.
In a randomly selected new Volkswagen, find the
probability of
at least one problem;
no problems;
more than three problems.
make a graph of its PDF
Please skip the theorem if you feel it hard!
Example
Remark. Poisson distribution used in cases where
the chance of any individual event being success is
very small. The distribution is used to describe the
behavior of rare events. For examples,
• The number of defective screws per box of 5000
screws
• The number of computer crashes in a day.
• The number of air accidents in India in one year.
Poisson Approximation to Binomial
Example
The probability that a passenger’s bag will be mishandled
on a U.S. airline is .0046. During spring break, suppose
that 500 students fly from Minnesota to various southern
destinations.
What is the expected number of mishandled bags?
What is the approximate
probability of no
mishandled bags? More
than two?
Binomial Approximation to Hypergeometric
Both the binomial and hypergeometric involve
sample size of n and the number of successes X.
The binomial sample is with replacement while the
hypergeometric sample is without replacement.
Rule of Thumb: If n/N < 0.05, we can use the
binomial approximation to the hypergeometric,
using sample size n and p = s/N.
Example
Two hundred employee travel expense reimbursement
vouchers were filed last year in the finance department at
Ramjac Corporation. Of these, 20 contained errors. A
corporate auditor audits a sample of five vouchers.
Let X be the number of incorrect vouchers in the sample.
Justify the use of the binomial
approximation.
Find the probability that the sample
contains no erroneous vouchers.
Find the probability that the sample
contains at least two erroneous vouchers.
-- The End of Topic --
Thank You!
