My partner ____ and I are proud to affirm the resolution, Resolved: The United States
should substantially reduce its military support of Taiwan.
Contention 1 is Diplomacy. Right now, China won’t come to the diplomatic table
because of US arm sales to Taiwan. Kulacki 24 finds that
China decided to hold off discussion with the US on arms as “a protest of Washington’s
arms sales to Taiwan.
US behaviors that make it difficult to establish the mutual trust a “necessary
condition” for constructive bilateral arms control talks.
Voting Pro and substantially reducing or stopping military support to Taiwan fixes the
problem - China wants to engage in diplomacy now, but U.S arm sales prevent them.
Reuters 24 states that,
U.S. arms sales to Taiwan compromise the political atmosphere for continuing
arms-control.
China was willing to maintain communication on international arms control, but the
U.S. "must create necessary conditions for dialogue and exchange.".
A potential spiraling arms race in the broader Indo-Pacific, as a result of China’s
nuclear advancement, could be halted if these talks continue.
Without diplomacy, an Asian arms race will ignite pre-existing factors for conflict in the
region – it escalates to large-scale conflict that would cost millions of lives. Gady 17
reports
The Asia-Pacific region is the most militarized region in the world [with] six nuclear
powers. Dangers lurk behind disputes and frozen conflicts.
Based on historical evidence, lack of understanding combined with a arms race, and
territorial disputes, create strategic miscalculations. Asia-Pacific instability cycle that
can cause large-scale conflict, flare-ups will turn into serious clashes.
Contention 2 is Accidents. The Taiwan Strait, a 180-kilometer-wide strait separating
the island of Taiwan and the Asian continent, is overcrowded with risky behavior like
military training exercises and covert drone activity. The risk of collisions and accidents
are high. Buckley 23 finds that,
China is stepping up pressure on Taiwan, taking dangerous actions . The United States
recorded more risky intercepts. Since the fall of 2021, the United States recorded more
than 180 intercepts. Such moves risk a midair crash and a wider crisis.
Right now, the de-escalation strategy is failing — there is a lack of communication and
preemptive pressure to use newer technology which ensures a quick escalation to a
conflict if an accident occurs. Shugart 24 finds
Unlike the Cold War communication links, the United States and China have not been
using it.
Beijing does not see links as tools. Chinese officials perceive them as a reward to be
given for less hostile behavior.
If one side believes it is about to be attacked, victory goes to the side that attacks first.
Driving first-move incentives, Chinese military doctrine focuses on attacking suddenly
to seize dominance before the United States can bring advantages.
Incentives to quickly escalate cause crisis driven by accident to spiral more quickly
than previous confrontations. On top of greater speed developments unfold given
faster decision-making by AI assistance.
Voting Pro substantially decreases support and solves the tension by ending a cycle of
military activity that prevents diplomacy. Swaine 22 writes
Washington and Beijing are engaged in a pattern of deterrence regarding Taiwan that
is increasing the chance of conflict. Greater levels of deterrence reinforce worst–case
assumptions.
No amount of U.S. military capability will deter Beijing. Beijing’s response is to signal
resolve by relying on military deterrence, which forces Washington to draw Taiwan
closer.
The impact of an accident would spark a devastating conflict and would cost millions
of lives. US-China war would escalate to nuclear war. Williams 23 finds
U.S. relations with China are combustible. Only a spark is necessary to ignite a nuclear
exchanges and threaten nuclear winter and extinction.
A war involving the U.S. and China would metastasize. Neither Beijing nor Washington
would accept defeat. The conflict probably would expand horizontally to other regions
to include nuclear weapons It could become the worst catastrophe in history.
For these reasons, we are proud to affirm the resolution.
