USA-China clash is inevitable?
Discuss
Thucydide’s Trap
• When a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power, the resulting structural stress
makes a violent clash the rule —->happened b/w Athens & Sparta, b/w Germany &
Britain, B/w SU and US in 1950s/60s
• China’s economic rise is threatening US
• China’s AIIB in response to US rejection to give it more votes at World Bank
• Also China created BRICS —> again in which US was left out
• Chinas claims over South China sea and right over 90% of the territory —-> this will help
it in establishing more military bases, operate aircraft, draft ships —-> will also make it
easier to conduct surveillance of US ships —-> economic dependence on China will also
increase, as it has been —-> US strategic alliances in the region to contain China
• America’s military wins since 1991 and technologising military also threaten China
• US values differ from Chinese Confucian values —> being taken over by a country that
has diff values could be worse as it would sweep away US values/ideas
• US tries to apply its political ideologies around the world —-> goes on to advance the
cause of democracy (Taiwan) —->Chinese suspicious that US would try to convert their
values also
• US-China also stuck between North Korea-South Korea conflict —-> third party —->
2010 incident
• Trade conflict of the 2000s —-> tariff war —> US wants china to devalue its currency and
stop unfair subsidies —->
• US always supicious of China’s intentions and the challenges it poses economically,
politically, military —-> while China believes US will overturn its communist rule, blame
China for poor human rights and intervene in internal affairs like Tibet & Taiwan
• But with China’s embracing of market economy, free trade and globalisation US is on the
defensive —> protectionist sentiments —-> fear of losing US manufacturing jobs to China
has provoked intense lobbying against Chine made products by many US trade unions and
domestic producers —-> accusations concerning china’s labor rights/human rights
violations —-> many camps in US now want to minimise economic/military threats from
China —-> US asked china to appreciate its currency, anti-dumping investigations & trade
sanctions against China have grown —-> US been upgrading military and bases in East
Asia
• Taiwan issue will continue to be difficult challenge facing the 2 countries —> US has
maintained One China policy since normalisation but has continued to sell arms to Taiwan
which has led to grievances in China ——> US sees Taiwan as traditional sphere of
influence in Asia and uses it as leverage to deal w china , while China sees Taiwan as
internal affairs and core national interest that should be free from US interference —-> US
fears that over time china can develop a military force that can discourage American
leadership from risking war w china for Taiwan , thus it needs Taiwan to be democratic to
counter rising power of China while China s
• China’s border/maritime territorial disputes with neighbouring states could be another
reasons in the East and Southeast regions that could challenge US-China leadership in
dealing w those disputes —-> China sees these issues as threats to its national security —-
> esp regarding Sino-Japanese tension over gas/oil reserves beneath East China Sea and
territorial quarrel over Diaoyo/Senkaku islands as well as South China Sea dispute b/w
China and Southeast Asian countries —-> Beijing knows escalation could worsen
international environment cause it would be faced by the combined forces of both Japanese
and US —-> China is suspicious of US military cooperation in the region and sees US as
factor of hinderance in any kind of resolution in its favour —-> after WW2 US sees the
region as its traditional sphere of influence and sees its military presence as imp to
maintain status quo —-> CONFLICT
• China knows US maintains security circle against China along Asian Pacific rim thru
bilateral military agreements with Japan, South Korea other Asian Pacific countries —->
Chinese see this as US attempt to stop china from rising, many US ppl see China’s military
modernisation as aggressive too ——> mutual suspicion continues ees US as barrier to
unification
• Escaping Thucydide’s trap
• Higher authorities can help resolve rivalry without war —-> supranational frameworks like
UN
• States can be embedded in larger economic, political and security institutions that constrain
historically “normal behaviours” —-> US and China economically interdependent on one
another —-> if they hurt the other they will basically be hurting themselves ; America
major market for Chinese products, china second largest for US ; mutually assured
economic destruction
• Preventive intervention —-> US supporting China’s One China policy on Taiwan ;
China’s “peaceful development” —-> US “Accommodate” —-> China become more
patient on Taiwan issue
• MAD —-> US/China both have robust nuclear systems —> war no longer an acceptable
option
• Domestic needs guiding foreign policy —-> for China to sustain its growth it needs to
maintain good relations with US, to maintain living standards for its people
Cooperation —-> On carbon emissions —-> 2016 Paris Agreement ; education oppurtunities
• Both sides want to work together to improve world affairs —-> in GFC 2008 China lent
helping hand to US, financed crumbling US financial market and helped in stabilising
world economy
• China has become increasingly important for US —-> China is US 2nd largest trading
partner, it is largest holder of foreign currency reserves in US dollars, largest foreign
creditor of US, largest holder of US treasury bonds
• Some factors also pull the two together ; common interests in terrorism, nuclear
proliferation, energy, environmental protection, stabilising the world economy, public
health, regional security issues (nuclear crisis over Korean Peninsula and peace across
Taiwan), and growing integration of the two economies
