U.S.

-China Relations
Under the Trump
Administration
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Changes and Challenges

Sanja Arežina
China Q of Int' l Strategic Stud Downloaded from www.worldscientific.com

Abstract: The beginning of the 21st century witnessed remarkable chan-

ges in the distribution of global power. The lack of strategic vision by the
United States has resulted in a power crisis, which in turn accelerates the
trends of new multipolarity with several power centers in the world. Since
President Trump took office in January 2017, the United States has been
challenging the established norms of international relations on many
fronts and, in particular, shifting its policy toward China to one that
trumpets geopolitical rivalry amid their economic interdependence.
The ever increasing anxiety of the United States has undermined

Sanja Arežina is Counsellor at the Government of the Republic of Serbia and Assistant
Professor at the University of Belgrade, Serbia. His mailing address is: 2 Mihajla Pupina
Boulevard, 11070 Belgrade, Serbia. He can also be reached at sanja arezina@yahoo.com or
sanja.arezina@kord-kim.gov.rs.
This article is based on a speech presented at the Global Young Scholars Conference 2019
at Fudan Development Institute on May 23, 2019. The opinions presented in the article
represent the personal view of the author and do not in any way reflect the position of the
Government of the Republic of Serbia.

c 2019 World Century Publishing Corporation and Shanghai Institutes for International Studies
°
China Quarterly of International Strategic Studies, Vol. 5, No. 3, 1–27
DOI: 10.1142/S2377740019500210

This is an Open Access article, copyright owned by the SIIS and WCPC. The article is distributed under
the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 (CC BY-NC) License which permits
use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided that the original work is properly cited and
is used for non-commercial purposes.

1
 2 China Quarterly of International Strategic Studies Vol. 5, No. 3

multilateralism and globalization, generating profound consequences and

impacts on major-power relations around the world. In the future,
Washington and Beijing must seek common goals that can bring them
together to resolve disagreements and set boundaries for potential con-
flicts. The U.S. leadership should always keep in mind that China is an
important partner; and if the two powers fail to cooperate, there will be
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devastating implications for the whole world. In the meantime,

Washington and Beijing need to be aware that an acute conflict of any
kind between two high-tech countries may substantially change the world
for all.
China Q of Int' l Strategic Stud Downloaded from www.worldscientific.com

Keywords: U.S.-China relations; Donald Trump; trade war; “China Threat.”

Amid the changing dynamics of major-power relations, Destined for War:

Can America and China Escape Thucydides’ Trap, written by Harvard pro-
fessor Graham Allison, has attracted worldwide attention since its publi-
cation in 2017, for it concludes that a situation known as the “Thucydides’
trap” can very possibly lead to war between the United States and the
People’s Republic of China. Comparing U.S.-China tensions today with
those in history between ancient Sparta and Athens described by Thucy-
dides, Allison contends that it is “the rise of Athens, and the fear that this
inspired in Sparta, that made war inevitable.”1 By contrast, some U.S.
statesmen, including former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, still believe
that Washington and Beijing will nevertheless be pragmatic enough to
continue cooperation in their mutual interest, given the existing “complex
interdependence” between both countries and the need to rely on each
other to reduce their costs.2
Since Donald Trump took office as U.S. President in January 2017, the
future direction of U.S.-China relations seems to be clearer. Unfortunately,

1 Graham Allison, Destined for War, Can America and China Escape Thucydides’ Trap
(Boston, MA: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, 2017), pp. 11–12.
2 RobertKeohane and Joseph Nye regard this kind of modern inter-state relations as not
only competitive, but of “complex interdependence” as well. See Gideon Rose, “The Fourth
Founding: The United States and the Liberal Order,” Foreign Affairs (January/February 2019),
p. 19.
 U.S.-China Relations Under the Trump Administration 3

President Trump’s “America First” policy has resulted in the U.S. with-
drawal from a large number of international agreements and a new U.S.
strategy for conditional participation in allied commitments in Europe and
Asia, which makes Washington appear less credible to the international
community. Furthermore, the Trump administration is inclined to apply the
mindset of comprehensive confrontation when dealing with Beijing,
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which could strengthen Sino-American rivalry and ultimately lead to a new

Cold War.
This article intends to explore the reasons behind the emergence of the
“China Threat” notion in the United States and the consequences of geo-
China Q of Int' l Strategic Stud Downloaded from www.worldscientific.com

political rivalry between Washington and Beijing. To be more specific, why

has the United States changed its stance toward China? And how might
future Sino-American rivalry proceed? The article first provides a historical
overview of U.S.-China relations from the 1970s until President Trump
came into power. It then explains the deterioration of U.S.-China relations
under the Trump administration. The third section further elaborates on
how the United States has become more anxious toward China and has
finally shifted its China policy. After analyzing the roots and implications of
the “China Threat” notion, the fourth section examines the potential con-
sequences of Sino-American rivalry. The article concludes by discussing the
future development of U.S.-China relations in the context of global political
and economic instability.

U.S.-China Constructive Engagement: A Historical Perspective

During the 1950s and 1960s, China, as an isolated and underdeveloped

country, did not catch much attention from the United States. However, in
the early 1970s, the Nixon administration realized that cooperation with
Beijing would be useful to the United States in its strategic competition with
the Soviet Union in order to “increase the flexibility of U.S. diplomacy.”
U.S.-China constructive engagement was thus kicked off by “ping-pong
diplomacy,” the ensuing visit of U.S. President Richard Nixon to Beijing,
and the signing of the Shanghai Communique in 1972, in which the United
States “acknowledge[d] that all Chinese on either side of the Taiwan Strait
maintain there is but one China and that Taiwan is a part of China” and
“affirm[ed] the ultimate objective of the withdrawal of all U.S. forces and
 4 China Quarterly of International Strategic Studies Vol. 5, No. 3

military installations from Taiwan.”3 At that time, both leaders in the

United States and China were aware of their common geopolitical threat
from the Soviet Union and the urgent need to strike a new balance of power
in Asia. As Henry Kissinger, Nixon’s Secretary of State, described, “Beijing
and Washington were in a marriage of convenience, that had later
grown into an emotional relationship, mostly thanks to China’s diplomatic
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ability.”4
The signing of the Shanghai Communique paved the way for a policy
of cooperation with China followed by the next five U.S. administrations. In
May 1975, President Gerald Ford withdrew the last fighter jet from Taiwan.
China Q of Int' l Strategic Stud Downloaded from www.worldscientific.com

During his tenure, a 200 million dollar-contract was approved for the sale of
intelligence-gathering aircraft to China, breaking the decades-long blockade
of military technology sales to this Asian country. Following the death of
Mao Zedong in 1976, the Ford administration approved the sale of the first
two computers (US Cyber 72-Control data), which were intended for oil
exploration and seismological testing, but could also be used for military
purposes. However, the U.S. elections in 1976 showed that the conservative
wings of both the Republican and Democratic parties were still divided
over the U.S. policy toward China. The anti-communist right wing, led by
Ronald Reagan, opposed continuing normalization with China, primarily
because it would require the United States to abandon official relations with
Taiwan and withdraw its military personnel and facilities from the island.
A major step was taken by President
Jimmy Carter in 1979 with the establishment of U.S.-China
U.S.-China diplomatic relations, although it cooperation has been
was overshadowed by the ensuing Congres- expanding despite
sional moves on the Taiwan Relations Act and
including China in its annual report on human
lasting debate within
rights at the very moment when China the U.S. government
made great efforts to obtain the Most Favored on China policy.
Nation (MFN) status in trade negotiations

3 TheSino-US Joint Communique was signed by President Richard Nixon and Premier
Chou En-lai in Shanghai on February 27, 1972.
4 Quoted from Dragan Miljanić, “Oscilacije u odnosima SAD-Kina,” Međụnarodna
politika, 1996, p. 30.
 U.S.-China Relations Under the Trump Administration 5

with the United States. Nevertheless, cooperation between the two coun-
tries started to gather momentum, especially in terms of military exchanges.
When President Reagan took office in 1981, the U.S. policy toward
China became a hot topic of debate again within the U.S. government
between the reformist and conservative wings of the Republican
Party, between the White House and the State Department and, condi-
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tionally, between President Reagan and his Secretary of State Alexander

Haig. Thanks to Haig, the first two years of Reagan’s tenure were marked
by successful U.S.-China cooperation in most areas. However, with the
departure of Haig and the arrival of Paul Wolfowitz and George Shultz,
China Q of Int' l Strategic Stud Downloaded from www.worldscientific.com

Washington’s position toward China changed, with Japan becoming the

focus of the U.S. Asia policy. During this period, The U.S. policy toward
Taiwan and the control of Chinese arms sales to Middle Eastern countries
highlighted growing disagreement between Washington and Beijing. Yet,
President Reagan’s visit to China in April 1984 was a great success for
Beijing, given that he was much more conservative, anti-Communist, and
pro-Taiwan than his predecessors.
In the 1990s, the idea of a potential conflict between the United States
and China re-emerged when the dissolution of the Soviet Union diminished
fears of a common threat and weakened U.S. support for a common goal,
threatening a return to tensions from the 1950s.5 The first reason was the
demise of communism in Europe, which began with the revolutions in
Central and Eastern Europe in 1989 and culminated two years later with the
breakdown of the Soviet Union. Second, Washington began to impose
heavy sanctions on China’s import of weapons and high technology since
late 1989. The third reason was the bombing of the Chinese embassy in
Belgrade in 1999 by the United States.6 These events made it necessary for
both President George H. W. Bush and President Bill Clinton to find a new
rational framework for the U.S. policy toward China.
Although President Bush was first convinced that he would continue
to develop relations with China, he was forced to make the biggest policy
change. He ordered sanctions against China in 1989 while managing to

5 Henry Kissinger, Does America need a Foreign Policy? Toward a Diplomacy for the 21st
Century (New York, NY: Simon & Schuster, 2001), p. 114.
6 Three Chinese embassy officials were killed during the bombing, while 27 Chinese
citizens were wounded.
 6 China Quarterly of International Strategic Studies Vol. 5, No. 3

open a secret channel of communication with Deng Xiaoping to maintain

relations with China.7 Due to the constant struggle between the American
establishment and the U.S. media and public opinion, U.S.-China relations
were rebuilt very slowly. Yet, after a while, it became evident that the
bilateral relations were on an upward trajectory as the United States
abstained from voting in the World Bank, tacitly granting necessary loans to
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China, and as Beijing abstained during the voting on the United Nations
Security Council resolution on Iraq. However, in order to attract voters
during the 1992 presidential campaign, the Bush administration announced
that it would sell F-16 fighter jets to Taiwan. Such a move was not enough to
China Q of Int' l Strategic Stud Downloaded from www.worldscientific.com

win him a second term; and the key was now in President Clinton’s hands
to reshape the U.S. policy toward China.
At the very beginning of his term, President Clinton signed a bill into
law that made China’s restoration of the MFN status be connected with a
positive assessment of China’s respect on human rights and non-prolif-
eration of nuclear weapons.8 This decision was opposed by the majority of
the American business community. As a result, Clinton decided to aban-
don economic sanctions on China in 1993. Although during this period,
warming U.S. relations with Taiwan defined U.S.-China relations in al-
most all areas, both countries continued to foster their strategic partner-
ship and common interests, such as on North Korea’s nuclear program,
which led to renewed U.S. communication with Chinese representatives at
all levels and President Jiang Zemin’s visit to Washington in 1997. It was
clear that President Clinton, enduring the criticism from a group of
Republicans in Congress made up of neo-conservatives and religious
activists, was constantly striving to develop constructive relations
with China.
As Clinton’s successor, President George W. Bush, who treated China
as both a rival and partner at the same time, had an equally rational ap-
proach to improve relations with China. Aware of China’s growing role in
the world, he prioritized their common interests, such as the fight against
terrorism, which allowed both countries to develop relations based upon
co-existence and cooperation throughout his tenure. In line with this

7 James H. Mann, About Face: A History of America’s Curious Relationship with China, from
Nixon to Clinton (New York, NY: Alfred A. Knopf, 1999), p. 226.
8 Ibid, p. 281.
 U.S.-China Relations Under the Trump Administration 7

position, the United States backed China’s accession to the World Trade
Organization (WTO) as well as its hosting of the 2008 Beijing Olympics.
After President Barack Obama took of-
The U.S.-China fice in 2009, the United States continued to
policy has always maintain a positive approach in cooperation
with Beijing. As Obama’s first Secretary of
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served to meet U.S.

State Hillary Clinton confirmed, while many
national interests of believed that China was, by definition, an
the time. adversary, the United States believed that
cooperation could bring benefits to both
China Q of Int' l Strategic Stud Downloaded from www.worldscientific.com

countries.9 However, when President Obama

entered into his second term, divided opinions on Chinese goals began to
be heard and various “China Threat” notions were constructed. Increas-
ingly, the anti-communist right wing called the authorities in Beijing a “new
evil” to be eradicated. Although Chinese leaders have in their speeches
constantly sought to downplay China’s role on the world stage by using
such words as “peaceful development” and China’s “lack of cultural genes”
in seeking regional hegemony, China has nevertheless attracted growing
attention. This was largely driven by its incredible economic growth even
during the 2008 financial crisis and the global recession right afterwards,
the modernization of its military forces which was delayed in the first ten
years of Deng’s reform, and its increasingly assertive foreign policy. In
contrast, the U.S. left-wing, traditionally wary of geopolitics-based politics,
has focused much on advocating for human rights and promoting
democracy as a U.S. foreign policy priority.10
This also led Washington to interpret Chinese moves toward neigh-
boring and other countries in the context of geopolitical and ideological
competition. Consequently, President Obama announced the U.S. “Rebal-
ance to Asia” in 2012 (formerly “Pivot to Asia”), which indicated the U.S.’
increasing reliance on a “containment” strategy toward China to preserve
the balance of power in Southeast Asia. For U.S. officials, Beijing is

9 Josh Rogin, “Obama contradicts Clinton, calls China an `adversary,”’ Foreign Policy,
October 22, 2012, https://foreignpolicy.com/2012/10/22/obama-contradicts-clinton-calls-
china-an-adversary.
10 Henry Kissinger, Does America need a Foreign Policy? Toward a Diplomacy for the 21st
Century, p. 116.
 8 China Quarterly of International Strategic Studies Vol. 5, No. 3

becoming a “potential rival” rather than a close partner, with whom the
relationship was once described as “Chimerica” by Harvard professor Niall
Ferguson.11 This negative attitude has continued to grow due in large part
to the forecast by some world-renowned analysts that China will be
climbing to the top of the international system within only 20 to 30 years.
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U.S.-China Relations Under Trump: The End

of Constructive Engagement

The election of President Donald Trump in January 2017 signaled that in the
China Q of Int' l Strategic Stud Downloaded from www.worldscientific.com

coming years the United States would shift its focus from global interests to
national interests in accordance with his “America first” doctrine.12 Indeed,
Americans have become less prepared to take on the burden of maintaining
a liberal international economic order, which they have been advocating for
decades; instead, they place greater emphasis on their own competitive-
ness.13 As a result, the Trump administration withdrew the United States
from a large number of international accords by which they perceive in-
adequate American interests, including the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP),
the Paris Agreement on Climate Change, the United Nations Educational,
Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), the Universal Postal Union
(UPU), the United Nations Human Rights Council, the Iran nuclear deal,
and the United Nations Global Compact on Migration, among others. In turn,
this accelerated the redistribution of power in the world and highlighted
the need for the transfer of global responsibility from the United States to
other countries, especially those emerging in Asia.
Bearing in mind the unpredictability of President Trump’s policy, it is
very likely that U.S. relations with its allies will also be compromised be-
cause of Trump’s conviction that the United States has long been the victim
of bad trade deals and unfair trade practices. Washington has already

11 Niall Ferguson, “Not two countries, but one: Chimerica,” The Telegraph, March 4,
2007.
12 PresidentTrump has set the goals of deficit reduction, infrastructure building, im-
proving public education, greater investment in social security, and adopting a smart im-
migration system that will allow talented foreigners to come and stay.
13 CharlesW. Kegley and Eugene R. Wittkopf, World Politics: Trend and Transformation
(Boston, MA: Bedford/St. Martin’s, 2001), p. 472.
 U.S.-China Relations Under the Trump Administration 9

adopted an aggressive stance that seeks to alter existing agreements to

establish and promote free and “fair” trade with all major partners. In this
regard, the process of renegotiating trade agreements that Washington
deems detrimental to U.S. interests has begun. The North America Free Trade
Agreement (NAFTA) and the U.S.-Korea Free Trade Agreement have been
scrutinized and amended. To achieve the same objective, President Trump
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launched re-negotiations with Beijing to cut huge U.S. deficits in its trade
with China. After several unsuccessful rounds of talks with Chinese offi-
cials, the Trump administration waged a trade war with China in March
2018, citing unfair Chinese trade practices and U.S. intellectual property
China Q of Int' l Strategic Stud Downloaded from www.worldscientific.com

theft.14 Shortly afterwards, Beijing responded by increasing tariffs on U.S.

products, mostly coming from U.S. states that voted in favor of President
Trump. So far, statistics show that President Trump has failed to reduce the
existing trade deficits with China through the measures he introduced.
Specifically, the deficits, which totaled $347 billion in 2016 and increased to
$375 billion in 2017, rose to $420 billion after the introduction of protec-
tionist measures.15
In addition to the trade war, the United States has significantly re-
duced the inflow of Chinese investment in recent years, especially those
related to acquisitions of U.S. companies that possess technology thought to
have capabilities to threaten U.S. national security. That is why the Com-
mittee of Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS), formed in the
1970s to reduce the flow of Japanese investment, was activated as part of
the review process of the Bureau of Industry and Security of the Depart-
ment of Commerce. For example, in recent years, the CFIUS has prevented

14 Trump believes that the United States has already lost in economic competition with
China because China enjoys a trade deficit of $500 billion per year and intellectual property
theft of $300 billion, mainly due to the irresponsible policies made by previous adminis-
trations. See Jeff Smith, “China’s Belt and Road Initiative: Strategic Implications and Inter-
national Opposition,” The Heritage Foundation, August 9, 2018, https://www.heritage.
org/asia/report/chinas-belt-and-road-initiative-strategic-implications-and-international-
opposition.
15 Swanson Ana, “U.S.-China Trade Deficit, Hits Record, Fueling Trade Fight,” The New
York Times, February 6, 2018, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/06/us/politics/us-china-
trade-deficit.html; and Stevanović Jelena, “Bez primirja u trgovinskom ratu SAD i Kine,”
Politika, May 11, 2019, http://www.politika.rs/sr/clanak/429275/Svet/Bez-primirja-u-trgo-
vinskom-ratu-SAD-i-Kine, May 30, 2019.
 10 China Quarterly of International Strategic Studies Vol. 5, No. 3

the acquisition of Aixtron by Fujian Grand Chip Investment Fund, Lattice

Semiconductor Corp by Canyon Bridge Capital Partners, Global Eagle by
HNA Group, and MoneyGram by Ant Financial.16
In August 2018, the acquisition process of
U.S. companies was further complicated by Chinese procurement
the passage of a new Foreign Investment Risk of U.S. high-tech
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Review Modernization Act (FIRRMA) in the companies may be

Congress, which extends the CFIUS’s authority
to audit foreign companies’ investments in
totally impossible in
critical and emerging technologies. Following the near future.
China Q of Int' l Strategic Stud Downloaded from www.worldscientific.com

this trend, foreign investment in U.S. semi-

conductor manufacturing companies or tech-
nologies that have a potential for armed use, investments that would result
in access to personal data of U.S. citizens, as well as those that would give a
competitive edge to the new generation of telecommunications or other
advanced technologies may no longer be acceptable. With these laws and
regulations, the security screening system of the U.S. government has made
Chinese investment in U.S. high-tech companies practically impossible in
any form.
The result of such measures, according to research data from the 2018
Mergermarket report, is that Chinese investments in U.S. companies have
fallen by 94.6 percent compared with 2016 (from $55.3 billion to $3 billion).

16 Although the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission published a

report in 2012 calling for greater scrutiny of Chinese investment in the United States in the
case of national security breaches, the CFIUS subsequently approved dozens of Chinese
acquisitions, as reflected in a March 2018 Congressional Research Service Report summa-
rizing acquisitions subject to the CFIUS review by country of origin and investment sector.
Thus, the CFIUS approved the acquisition of Syngenta by ChemChin, the Chicago Stock
Exchange by Chongqing Casin Enterprise Group, and Fairchild Semiconductor by ON
Semiconductor. Even in cases of opposition by some members of Congress as well as the
Strategic Materials Advisory Council, the CFIUS approved the acquisition of A123 Systems
by the Wanxiang Group. It also approved the acquisition of Smithfield Foods by Shuanghui
International Holdings Ltd. worth $4.7 billion, though there was significant opposition from
the National Farmers Union and the Center for Rural Affairs. See David Blumental et al.,
“CFIUS and Chinese Investment in the United States A closed door,” Latham & Watkins,
No. 2352, June 4, 2018, https://www.lw.com/thoughtLeadership/CFIUS-chinese-invest-
ments-united-states-reprint.
 U.S.-China Relations Under the Trump Administration 11

The situation will be further aggravated by the new changes of the CFIUS,
which will extend the bans to a specific category of “critical infrastructure”
that will include telecommunications, power generation (nuclear power),
utilities and transport (high-speed railway).17 Consequently, the United
States will be able to block a far wider array of foreign transactions that are
deemed threats to its national security, including minority stakes and joint
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ventures in technology, telecommunications and other cutting-edge com-

panies. Although these measures are not targeted at China alone, the fact
that over 50 percent of declined transactions in the U.S. market are in-
vestment requests of Chinese companies suggests that Chinese investments
China Q of Int' l Strategic Stud Downloaded from www.worldscientific.com

are no longer welcome in the United States.18 In addition to these measures,

the Trump administration has developed other ones that would kill the
business deals right from the start. For example, instead of making a neg-
ative CFIUS decision, the Trump administration has introduced a rigorous
review system that drastically extends the review period, which would
greatly demotivate companies seeking to invest in the U.S. market.
Over the past years, anti-Chinese rhetoric has also become increasingly
prominent in key strategic documents, such as the 2017 United States Na-
tional Security Strategy and the 2018 United States National Defense Strategy. In
these documents, China is presented (with Russia) as a strategic competitor
and “predator” who uses economic inducements and penalties, influence
operations, and implied military threats to persuade other states to heed its
political and security agenda. Accordingly, the Trump administration will
focus on the Indo-Pacific in the coming years as a key region of interest to
the United States.19 In his speech in June 2018 on the U.S. policy towards
Europe, A. Wess Mitchell, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Europe and
Eurasia, presented China and Russia as political models based on

17 Steve Dickinson, “New CFIUS Rules Shut Down Chinese Investment in U.S. Tech-
nology,” China Law Blog, January 16, 2019, https://www.chinalawblog.com/2019/01/new-
cfius-rules-shut-down-chinese-investment-in-u-s-technology.html.
18 Alan Rappeport, “In New Slap at China, U.S. Expands Power to Block Foreign
Investments,” The New York Times, October 10, 2018, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/10/
business/us-china-investment-cfius.html.
19 Embassy in Georgia, “National Security Strategy of the United States of America,”
December 19, 2017, https://ge.usembassy.gov/2017-national-security-strategy-united-states-
america-president; and Jeff Smith, “China’s Belt and Road Initiative: Strategic Implications
and International Opposition.”
 12 China Quarterly of International Strategic Studies Vol. 5, No. 3

authoritarianism and military power that challenge the position of the

West, which represents an area of regulated freedom where the separation
of branches of government guarantees the preservation of freedom of the
individual and the community, and where the alliances protect the nations
that rest on that freedom.20
After Chinese President Xi Jinping inaugurated the Belt and Road
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Initiative (BRI) in 2013, Washington has begun lobbying against the par-
ticipation of its allies in the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), a
China-initiated financial institution to support the BRI. Then, in October
2017, the Trump administration in conjunction with its allies laun-
China Q of Int' l Strategic Stud Downloaded from www.worldscientific.com

ched “silent talks” on how to create alternative financing schemes to de-

veloping countries which are in need of foreign investments. For
example, the Trump administration raised funds for the Overseas Private
Investment Corporation (OPIC) fund from $29 billion to $60 billion.21
Memoranda were signed with the Japan Bank for International Cooperation
(JBIC) and the Association of European Development Finance Institutions
(AEDFI) to promote cooperation on “sustainable investments” in devel-
oping countries and promote “democratic values, self-sustaining societies
and the strengthening of best practices.”22 Moreover, the International
Development Finance Corporation (IDFC) has
been established together with Australia and The U.S. worries that
Japan to fund and assist U.S. companies in-
China’s “debt trap
volved in overseas digital infrastructure pro-
jects; and in December 2017, the United States, diplomacy” will win
Japan, and the European Union (EU) set up an China more leverage
informal alliance within the WTO to combat in international
“the unfair market distorting and protectionist
politics.
practices by third countries,” which primarily
referred to China.

20 Wess Mitchell, “The Transatlantic Bond: Preserving the West,” The Heritage Foun-
dation, June 5, 2018, https://www.heritage.org/europe/event/the-transatlantic-bond-pre-
serving-the-west.
21 “Pompeo says U.S. to be more Engaged in East Europe, warns Russia trying to divide
West,” Radio Free Europe/Radi Liberty, February 11, 2019, https://www.rferl.org/a/pompeo-
begins-central-europe-trip-with-focus-on-russia-china/29762993.html.
22 Embassy in Georgia, “National Security Strategy of the United States of America.”
 U.S.-China Relations Under the Trump Administration 13

However, only after China highlighted its “Made in China 2025” ini-
tiative did Trump’s White House begin to openly claim that most of the
projects implemented under the BRI represent “debt trap diplomacy.”
16 U.S. Congresspeople, by referring to President Xi’s statement23 at the
19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC), indicated
in a letter to Secretary of State Michael Pompeo and Secretary of Treasury
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Steven Mnuchin in August 2018 that the participation of individual coun-

tries in the BRI projects led to their indebtedness, citing Montenegro,
Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Djibouti as examples. These Congresspeople
pointed out that borrowing from Chinese financial institutions would harm
China Q of Int' l Strategic Stud Downloaded from www.worldscientific.com

these countries because they would fall in a dependent position, and that
the final consequences are often borne by the International Monetary Fund
(IMF) to which the United States is the largest contributor, in order to save
them from excessive debt and bankruptcy. For these countries’ debts often
lead to financial default and debt-to-equity conversion, which is a security
problem that is of strategic importance; and possibly leading to changes in
foreign policy decisions of these countries, which can best be seen when
they vote in international organizations in favor of Beijing.24 These criti-
cisms were echoed in April 2018 by former IMF Director Christine Lagarde,
who indicated that borrowings from Chinese financial institutions could
lead to problems of increasing public debt, making it necessary for China to
be preventive in concluding preferential loans with countries within the BRI
and to insist on debt sustainability and conduct of a risk analysis, with
which the Chinese leadership has agreed.25
Additionally, to heighten pressure on Beijing and prevent Chinese
competition in telecommunications, the United States began to accuse ZTE
and Huawei of being security risks due to possible “wiretapping” of users

23 At the 19th National CPC Congress held in Beijing on October 18, 2017, Xi announced
that “China’s development does not pose a threat to any other country. No matter what stage
of development it reaches, China will never seek hegemony or engage in expansion.” See full
text of the report at http://www.china.org.cn/20171105-002.pdf.
24 UnitedStates Senate, “Senators’ Letter to Michael Pompeo and Steven Mnuchin,”
August 3, 2018.
25 RichardPartington, “IMF chief urges China to focus on `belt and road’ sustainability,”
The Guardian, April 26, 2019, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/apr/26/belt-and-
road-forum-xi-jinping-promises-transparency-to-ease-concerns.
 14 China Quarterly of International Strategic Studies Vol. 5, No. 3

of their devices by the Chinese government. Arrests of Ms. Meng Wanzhou,

Chief Financial Officer (CFO) of Huawei in Canada and Wang Weijing,
Regional Director of the company in Poland, together with a Polish citizen
on charges of spying in favor of China,26 a ban on the use of Huawei
technology in the United States and Washington’s warnings on suspending
cooperation with countries that continue to do business with Chinese
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companies flagged as security risks have forced countries around the world
to rethink their 5G telecommunications network contracts set up with
Huawei.27 In addition to technology companies, the Confucius Institutes
and Chinese student organizations are also subject to scrutiny in the United
China Q of Int' l Strategic Stud Downloaded from www.worldscientific.com

States, and the U.S. government is now investigating other forms of

potential Chinese influence, whether through think-tanks, media or the
Chinese diaspora.

Behind the Shift of Trump’s China Policy

The reasons for the increasingly negative attitude toward China from
Trump’s America can be found in history, which is imbued with paranoia as
an important driver of American expansionism. Constantly creating ene-
mies while expanding and annexing territories, the United States has
adopted the position that American enemies are everywhere and that it is
necessary to fight and destroy them.28 The paranoia was further strength-
ened by the relatively low level of social trust that Americans had toward
other races and ethnic groups. This has been demonstrated by the long
history of slavery in the United States, where great differences could be seen
in terms of ethnicity and race, especially with regard to African-Americans,

26 PaulMozur and Raymond Zhong, “Huawei and China, Facing U.S. Charges, Have
Few Ways to Retaliate,” The New York Times, January 29, 2019, https://www.nytimes.com/
2019/01/29/technology/huawei-indictment-criminal-charges.html.
Bachulska and Richard Q. Turscanyi, “Behind the Huawei Backlash in Poland
27 Alicja

and Czech Republic,” The Diplomat, February 6, 2019, https://thediplomat.com/2019/02/be-

hind-the-huawei-backlash-in-poland-and-the-czech-republic.
28 JeffreyD. Sachs, “Will America Create a Cold War with China?,” Horizons (No. 13,
Winter 2019), https://www.cirsd.org/en/horizons/horizons-winter-2019-issue-no-13/will-
america-create-a-cold-war-with-china.
 U.S.-China Relations Under the Trump Administration 15

Asians, native Americans, Hispanics, Arabs, Jews and other immigrant

groups who were not native English speakers.
Back in the 1960s, American historian Richard Hofstadter wrote about
“the paranoid style in American politics,” i.e., how the American right
invents or exaggerates dangers that do not exist. This has led to episodes
such as the “Red Scare” against Bolsheviks just after World War I, accu-
by 182.177.194.173 on 03/26/20. Re-use and distribution is strictly not permitted, except for Open Access articles.

sations against Communism after World War II during Joseph McCarthy’s

era, fear of Japan as a superpower during the 1980s, and the global war on
terrorism after 9/11.29 This paranoid approach of the United States could
also be seen in the official documents of the National Security Council of
China Q of Int' l Strategic Stud Downloaded from www.worldscientific.com

1950 (NSC-68), where the Soviet Union was labeled as an unrelenting

enemy seeking to undermine and destroy the integrity and vitality of the
United States. However, unlike strategists who sought U.S. protection in
preventative wars, some analysts felt that a different approach should be
taken. Thus, George Kennan, designer of the “containment” policy, op-
posed the existing arms and proxy race with the Soviet Union and advised
the U.S. leadership to patiently wait for the collapse of the Soviet Union’s
unsound centralized economy due to its own failures. Aware of the
implications of the tension between the two great powers, Daniel Ellsberg
noted in his latest book The Doomsday Machine that the world should be
happy that it survived the Cold War madness. Unfortunately, soon after the
collapse of the Soviet Union, it became apparent that the years to come
would lead to a new multiplication of fears and exaggeration of the dangers
in American society paranoia would prevail again and the United States
would start looking for new enemies in other
The U.S. has an in- corners of the world.
trinsic paranoia for a Immediately after the end of the Cold
War, Americans replaced the decades-long
growing power of
threat from the Soviet Union with a new
different race and “Chinese threat.” Back in 1991, Deng
culture. Xiaoping issued press statements that “con-
flicts between the two countries constituted a

29 Richard Hofstadter, “The Paranoid Style in American Politics,” in Richard Hofstadter,

The Paranoid Style in American Politics and Other Essays (Cambridge, MA: Harvard
University Press, 1964), https://static1.squarespace.com/static/55258625e4b00cfda38b47d7/t/
56e84dc12fe131ff71851fca/1458064834964/Hofstadter-Paranoid-Style-American-Politics.pdf.
 16 China Quarterly of International Strategic Studies Vol. 5, No. 3

`new Cold War.”’30 Even then, it was clear that China, as the largest
remaining Communist nation, had assumed the role of the leading ideo-
logical and geopolitical rival of the United States. This was further com-
pounded by China’s rapid economic growth and its significant budgetary
allocation for modernizing the military. As a result, many researchers,
analysts, and journalists in the West began amplifying the “China threat”
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notion and potential conflicts between a declining power and a rising

power. As the famous Athenian historian Thucydides wrote in his book
History of the Peloponnesian War, war could break out if an established force
began to fear the rising power “What made the war inevitable was the
China Q of Int' l Strategic Stud Downloaded from www.worldscientific.com

rise of Athenian power, and the fear it aroused in Sparta,” which was the
cause of the Second Peloponnesian War. The essence of the “Thucydides’
Trap” is that the existing power becomes nervous because of the rise of a
new power, which can lead to war.31
For a long time, coexistence was something that described the relations
between the United States and China. However, the inauguration of Donald
Trump as the 45th President of the United States has triggered a visible shift
of policy toward Beijing. Immediately at the beginning of Trump’s presi-
dency, it became apparent that Washington had ceased to believe that the
Chinese leadership would abandon the authoritarian approach, further
integrate China into the post-war international order and liberalize its
politics in line with Western democracies; instead, it seeks to change the
existing order into a Sino-centric world based on Chinese values.
Criticizing the political “doves” in Washington who continue to con-
sider Beijing as a constructive partner and not an existential threat in any
way, “hawks” within the Trump administration began to emerge, such as
Peter Navarro, Wilbur Ross and Robert Lighthizer. To a large extent, their
views toward China were shaped by the polemical essay of Robert D.
Blackwill and Ashley Tellis written in 2015 for the Council of Foreign
Relations (CFR) entitled “Revising the U.S. Grand Strategy toward China.”
Blackwill and Tellis believe that the United States, since its establishment,

30 Samuel
Huntington, Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order (New York,
NY: Simon & Schuster, 2011), p. 246.
31 Graham Allison, Destined for War, Can America and China Escape Thucydides’ Trap,
pp. 11–12.
 U.S.-China Relations Under the Trump Administration 17

has consistently pursued a grand strategy aimed at gaining and main-

taining dominance over various rivals, first in the North American conti-
nent, then in the Western Hemisphere, and finally at the global level.
During the Cold War, this strategy manifested itself as a policy of “con-
tainment” that yielded good results in protecting the security of the United
States and its allies, followed by the defeat of the Soviet Union. However, to
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stop the threat from China and remain as the largest global power in the
21st century, they believe that it is necessary for the United States to halt
further Chinese growth by using all existing mechanisms from hard power
to geo-economic and geopolitical pressure which Washington used during
China Q of Int' l Strategic Stud Downloaded from www.worldscientific.com

the Cold War to contain the Soviet Union. They recommend that the United
States prioritize strengthening domestic economy and then, in addition to
existing alliances, establish new partnerships and create new forms of co-
operation across the Indo-Pacific region that exclude Beijing, in order to
enhance the ability of Asian countries to counter China. While working to
create new mechanisms to contain the development of Chinese technolo-
gies, they also suggest the U.S. government conduct high-level diplomacy
with Beijing, with constant assurances to allies and friends that the goal of
the United States is not to provoke conflicts with China.32
More importantly, the negative attitude
“Made in China of the Trump administration toward Beijing
2025” was the “last comes from allegations of China’s unfair
straw” breaking trade practices, forced technology transfer,
intellectual property theft and the imposition
Washington’s of non-customs barriers that prevent U.S.
strategic patience companies from entering into the Chinese
toward China. market. In this regard, officials in Washington
constantly emphasize the problem of the U.S.
trade deficits with China.33 They argue that

D. Blackwill and Ashley J. Tellis, “Revising the U.S. Grand Strategy Toward
32 Robert

China,” Council on Foreign Relations, Special Report No. 72, March 2015, https://carne-
gieendowment.org/files/Tellis Blackwill.pdf.
33 Since 1985, the United States has had a trade deficit with China that reached $344
billion in 2018, 15 times more than the total U.S. trade deficit in 1982. Meanwhile, China’s
trade surplus jumped from $4.7 billion in 1982 to $237 billion in 2017.
 18 China Quarterly of International Strategic Studies Vol. 5, No. 3

although U.S. consumers and industry have benefited from cheap Chinese
products for years, domestic manufacturers and millions of Americans have
suffered from the “made-in-China” process and lost their jobs because a
great number of U.S. companies have outsourced their production to China.
The last straw was China’s “Made in China 2025” initiative to elevate the
country on the global value chain from a manufacturer of low-end com-
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modities to high-tech products, which Washington interpreted as a biggest

enduring threat to the U.S. primacy.
The U.S. trade war on China may remind some of the first Opium
War started by the British in the mid-19th century to establish a trade
China Q of Int' l Strategic Stud Downloaded from www.worldscientific.com

balance with China. In fact, Great Britain sent its first diplomatic mission
to Beijing in 1793, hoping to trade with China on its terms for China to
open its markets, agree on a new customs regime, and abolish its closed
hierarchical trading system. When the Chinese Emperor rejected those
demands, the British encouraged the opium trade to reduce deficits from
importing tea and other Chinese commodities, and subsequently resorted
to brute force, knowing that the Chinese had no modern weapons to fight
back.34 Like Great Britain in the 19th century, the United States today is
dissatisfied with large trade deficits with China. Thus, Washington is
ready to make every move even by launching a trade war to turn
the economic relations with China in its own favor. The difference from
nearly two centuries ago, however, is that the United States cannot
achieve these goals by the use of force, as China has already become a
regional power with significant economic and military might. Attempts by
the Obama administration to balance China’s rise in the Pacific by nego-
tiating the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) can be said to have failed be-
cause the Trump administration finally abandoned this agreement and
opted for a more populist approach and less subtle instruments. For
President Trump, his shift of China policy to activate confrontation with
Beijing is to at least increase his chance of winning a second Presidential
term in 2020.

Jr. Wakeman, “The Canton trade and the Opium War,” in John K. Fairbank
34 Frederic

and Liu Kwang-Ching, Late Ch’ing, 1800–1911, Part two, The Cambridge History of China,
Vol. 11 (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 1980); and Graham Allison, Destined
for War, Can America and China Escape Thucydides’ Trap, p. 151.
 U.S.-China Relations Under the Trump Administration 19

Consequences and Impacts of U.S.-China Rivalry

The shift of the U.S. foreign policy by the Trump administration has se-
riously threatened the very foundation of globalization: multilateralism.
The U.S. withdrawal from existing political and trade agreements has
brought the world into a period of instability in which protectionism and
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perception on securing national interests are dominant; cooperation and

partnerships are sidelined. In particular, U.S.-China rivalry will have
much spillover effect on the growth of emerging economies and world
trade.
China Q of Int' l Strategic Stud Downloaded from www.worldscientific.com

For the United States, in the short run, the impact that President
Trump’s decisions will have on the U.S. market may be positive. Specif-
ically, the shortage of products coming from China (among which are
products of U.S. companies that have moved their assembly lines to
China) does contribute to strengthening the manufacturing industry in
the United States, attracting American companies back home and in-
creasing local employment. However, the Trump administration should
keep in mind that, in the past decades, China has strengthened a de facto
strategic partnership with the United States by resisting a powerful
Taiwanese lobby that sought to extinguish the Chinese mainland’s MFN
status in the U.S. Congress, which is tied to hundreds of thousands of
jobs, mostly on the West Coast.35 Thus, it can be expected that a trade
war will cause great harm to U.S. local producers who procure raw
materials from China, transnational companies that have relocated their
production to China, U.S. interest groups who, due to Beijing’s reciprocal
measures, cannot export products to the Chinese market, and U.S. con-
sumers who will have to pay higher prices.36 At the global level, the
United States will also suffer significant consequences. Countries around
the world will see Washington less interested in the common welfare and
more in its own interest, which is detrimental to its image and credibility
as the leading global power.

35 Simić Predrag, Kratka istorija Kine (Belgrade: Nea, 2003), p. 203.

36 The agricultural lobby is very influential in the U.S. Congress. It should be borne in
mind that the American Soybean Association has 21,000 members, making it a very
powerful lobbying group.
 20 China Quarterly of International Strategic Studies Vol. 5, No. 3

Policy shifts by the United States and its trade war with China will
certainly generate profound implications for Beijing. Globally, China will
increasingly turn to other trade partners to make up for the share of the
U.S. market. President Xi has repeatedly criticized protectionist measures
for violating the norms of the WTO and disrupting the international order.
In May 2019, he gave a speech at the 2nd Belt and Road Forum for
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International Cooperation in which he emphasized that China is fighting

against the rise of protectionism and committed to build an open world
economy.37 Domestically, the imposition of high tariffs by the United
States will seriously affect the Chinese economy, evident in how Chinese
China Q of Int' l Strategic Stud Downloaded from www.worldscientific.com

GDP growth hit a record low at 6.6 percent in 2018.38 The competitiveness
of Chinese products in the U.S. market has also been undermined. To be
more specific, Chinese products have become more expensive as labor
costs in Chinese factories hike, partly caused by an aging society as a
result of the decades-long “One Child” policy,39 as well as environmental
degradation.
In order to maintain economic and political stability, China must
maintain its economic growth in the coming years. That is why it has
endeavored to change its model of development from low-end manu-
facturing to high-tech production while increasing the purchasing power of
the Chinese people. It is against such a background that in 2015 the “Made
in China 2025” initiative was devised, which, together with the “Going
Global” strategy and the BRI, will facilitate China’s technological readiness
and internationalization of Chinese companies as well as new markets for
Chinese products. At the domestic level, a series of reforms targeting state-
owned enterprises (SOEs), environmental, health and pension standards,
“One Child” policy, corruption and the Hukou (family registration) system

37 Beltand Road News, “Xi, Putin urge World Leaders to reject US Protectionism,”
April 28, 2019, https://www.beltandroad.news/2019/04/28/xi-putin-urge-world-leaders-to-
reject-us-protectionism.
38 In2016, China’s GDP was at 6.7% compared with 6.8% in 2017. See Kevin Yao,
“China’s economy seen growing 6.8 percent in 2017 and 6.7 percent in 2018: Reuters pool,”
Reuters, October 24, 2017, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-gdp/chinas-
economy-seen-growing-6-8-percent-in-2017-and-6-4-percent-in-2018-reuters-poll-
idUSKBN1CT0FO.
39 The“One Child” policy was introduced by Deng Xiaoping in 1979 to enhance quality
of the population and increase GDP per capita.
 U.S.-China Relations Under the Trump Administration 21

have been launched, which will help the middle class reach an income level
sufficient for consumption of more high-quality products.
If we ignore the domestic problems that
Negative effect of the the Chinese have to solve, the trade war
U.S.-China trade war seems inevitable because of abundant for-
eign exchange reserves in China and high
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is mostly felt at the

public debt in the United States. The Chinese
local level in both government has much greater control over
countries. the economy and therefore has the ability to
pump up domestic spending with monetary
China Q of Int' l Strategic Stud Downloaded from www.worldscientific.com

and fiscal stimuli. The Chinese government

can also boost exports by letting the RMB fall and instructing state banks to
support industries and companies most affected by U.S. tariffs. In this
sense, China will be able to endure the trade war for years. At the local
level, however, the negative consequences will be felt much more. Bud-
getary funds received by dominant SOEs are very likely to be reduced; and
there may well be a real income decrease, triggering a negative sentiment.
With regard to the EU, the U.S.-China trade war can bring some
positive outcomes for its member states, whose exports to the United States
may increase. However, most EU member states find it difficult to balance
their foreign policy decisions about China and the United States. This can
be seen in the increasingly warning tone of leading European officials de-
manding reciprocal concessions from their Chinese counterparts for Euro-
pean companies in the Chinese market similar to those of Chinese
companies in the EU market. Although EU Trade Commissioner Cecilia
Malmstr€ om made statements in early 2017 urging countries around the
world to resist protectionism, Brussels has initiated changes in the last two
years to several policies aimed at protecting the EU market and preventing
the open market principles on which the EU is based from furthering
its strategic vulnerability. In March 2019, the EU adopted a common
framework for monitoring foreign direct investment coming to Europe,
especially those investments in strategic sectors and assets.40 Also, the

40 European Sources Online, “Foreign Investment Screening: new European framework

to enter into force in April 2019,” March 5, 2019, https://europa.eu/rapid/press-release IP-19-
1532 en.htm.
 22 China Quarterly of International Strategic Studies Vol. 5, No. 3

European Commission has proposed revising competition rules and

launching a public procurement reciprocity strategy advocated by France
for many years, which would represent a “better weapon in the fight”
against large Chinese companies in the European market.41 In addition, in a
joint position paper published in March 2019, Brussels described China as a
partner with whom the EU has closely aligned objectives and needs to find
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a balance of interests, but at the same time regarded China as an economic

competitor in pursuit of technological leadership and a “systemic rival”
promoting alternative models of governance.42
What strengthened the negative feeling of the EU was the large
China Q of Int' l Strategic Stud Downloaded from www.worldscientific.com

amount of Chinese investment entering the European market in the past

few years. In such context, the capital flow into the EU from China was
reduced from 37 billion Euros in 2016 to 29.1 billion Euros in 2017 and 17.3
billion Euros in 2018, due to restrictive measures taken by both Beijing and
Brussels.43 In 2016, the takeover of German semiconductor manufacturer
Aixtron by China’s Fujian Grand Chip was terminated after American in-
tervention.44 In 2018, the entry of China’s State Grid into the German energy
market was also blocked with the suspension of the purchase of 20 percent
of 50-Hertz Transmission, as well as Yantai Taihai Group’s acquisition of
Leifeld Metal Spinning which produces high-quality metals for the aviation
and nuclear industries.45 Faced with public pressure, politicians in Belgium
prevented the purchase of 14 percent of the country’s gas and electricity

41 Jakob Hanke and Jacopo Barigazzi, “EU accelerates moves to block China’s market
access,” Politico, March 18, 2019, https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-accelerates-moves-to-
block-chinas-market-access.
42 European Commission, “Commission reviews relations with China, proposes 10
actions,” March 12, 2019, https://europa.eu/rapid/press-release IP-19-1605 en.htm.
43 ThiloHanemann et al., “Chinese FDI in Europe: 2018 trends and impact of new
policies,” MERICS Papers on China, March 16, 2019, https://www.merics.org/en/papers-on-
china/chinese-fdi-in-europe-2018.
44 RasmussenGlobal, “Foreign Investment Screening and the China Factor Memo,”
November 16, 2017, https://rasmussenglobal.com/media/foreign-investment-screening-
china-factor-memo.
Kastner, “Germany toughens stance on Chinese investment,” Asian Review,
45 Jens

August 2, 2018, https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Business-Deals/Germany-toughens-stance-

on-Chinese-investment.
 U.S.-China Relations Under the Trump Administration 23

distribution company EANDIS by China’s State Grid.46 In the name of

protecting national security, Polish Defense Minister blocked the tender by
the Military Property Agency to sell state-owned land to a Chinese
company,47 and Polish regulatory authorities blocked three major infra-
structure tenders won by Chinese companies including two highway pro-
jects and a demolition waste recycling plant.48
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Besides the EU, Russia also benefits

The EU and Russia from the trade war between the United States
will reap immediate and China. After the formal settlement of 97
benefits from the percent of the Beijing-Moscow territorial
China Q of Int' l Strategic Stud Downloaded from www.worldscientific.com

dispute in 2008, the two countries have their

U.S.-China trade war. “coalition of convenience” further deepened
to “the highest level of bilateral relations in
history” due to the Western sanctions imposed on Russia and increasing
U.S. tariffs on Chinese products. Political cooperation has been strength-
ened by frequent high-level visits as well as the growing bilateral trade
which surged from $69.6 billion in 2016 to $107.1 billion in 2018, with China
as Russia’s largest individual trade partner in both exports and imports.
Furthermore, the U.S.-China trade war will enable Moscow to extend its
cooperation with Beijing to other areas, because the existing cooperation is
largely confined to Chinese purchases of Russian energy and minerals. In
this sense, the trade war can make agricultural and petrochemical products
from Russia natural hedges for China during its negotiation with the
United States.
For now, China has removed all restrictions on imports of soybeans
from Russia, a decision that the Kremlin considers a “huge breakthrough”
as Beijing has long been restricting imports of Russian agricultural pro-
ducts. While it is not realistic that Russian products could completely re-
place U.S. products in the Chinese market, there is certainly a noticeable

Seaman et al., “Chinese Investment in Europe,” ETNC, December 2017, https://

46 John

www.pism.pl/files/?id plik=23889.
47 Mercy A. Kuo, “China in Eastern Europe: Poland’s Perspective,” The Diplomat,
December 19, 2017, https://thediplomat.com/2017/12/china-in-eastern-europe-polands-
perspective.
Bachulska and Richard Q. Turscanyi, “Behind the Huawei Backlash in Poland
48 Alicja

and Czech Republic.”

 24 China Quarterly of International Strategic Studies Vol. 5, No. 3

increase in Russian soybean and pork exports to the Chinese market.

During the period of 2017–2018, Russian soybean export to China was 2.5
times as much as that in 2016–2017.49 In other areas where there is interest
in Russian products, it is also expected that China will be more flexible
when it comes to legal and sanitary restrictions.
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Conclusion

The second decade of the 21st century ended with remarkable changes in
China Q of Int' l Strategic Stud Downloaded from www.worldscientific.com

the world. Most prominently, the foreign policy shift of the United States
under the Trump presidency has brought new dynamics to international
relations. For generations, Washington has shaped international politics as
a team player, bringing together a significant group of countries thanks to
their shared values established after World War II. By strengthening col-
lective hard power, the United States is protecting both interests of its own
as well as the community at the forefront.50
Since President Trump took office, the United States has withdrawn
itself from a large number of international agreements and embarked on a
new strategy for conditional participation in allied commitments. Such a
self-interest-oriented approach of the world’s greatest power has resulted in
a growing sense of insecurity in countries that have been protected for
decades under the U.S. umbrella. In May 2017, Herbert R. McMaster, Pres-
ident Trump’s second national security adviser, and Gary D. Cohn, head of
the Economic Council, asserted to the Wall Street Journal that America’s
support could only be expected by those who are strong and willing to
pursue directly expressed American interests.51 When the United States
initiated a trade war with China in 2018, the allied nations were urged by
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to show how willing they were to pursue

49 Dmitriy Frolovskiy, “China and Russia aren’t economic equals but, thanks to the US
trade war, their partnership looks build to last,” South China Morning Post, May 14, 2019,
https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/3009679/china-and-russia-arent-
economic-equals-thanks-us-trade-war.
50 Gideon Rose, “The Fourth Founding: The United States and the Liberal Order,” p. 19.
51 Herbert R. McMaster and Gary Cohn, “America First doesn’t mean America Alone,”
Wall Street Journal, May 30, 2017, https://www.wsj.com/articles/america-first-doesn’t-mean-
america-alone-1496187426.
 U.S.-China Relations Under the Trump Administration 25

U.S. interests worldwide. Undoubtedly, the United States is now standing at

the forefront of a new group of countries that are resisting further Chinese
rise in the name of safeguarding the “liberal world order.”52 Peter Navarro,
President Trump’s trade adviser, even called it a “zero-sum game between
China and the rest of the world.”53 Such statements by top U.S. officials
imply that an economic “iron curtain” is rising between Washington and
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Beijing after their four decades of constructive engagement.

If we take a look at U.S.-China relations under the Trump adminis-
tration, we can conclude that the Chinese leadership has shown a much
more robust and stable approach than its American counterpart. Decision-
China Q of Int' l Strategic Stud Downloaded from www.worldscientific.com

makers in China have warned about the dangers that a trade war may have
on global economy, urged everybody to sit at the negotiating table, ac-
cepted U.S. demands on the negotiation table as long as they would not
threaten China’s economic and political stability, and refrained from
countermeasures when Washington introduced excessive tariffs on Chinese
products. When all diplomatic mechanisms were exhausted, China adopted
a smaller range of countermeasures against the United States. Unfortu-
nately, the Trump administration did not seem to apprehend the basic
premise of successful negotiations, which do not depend on the power of
the stronger party, but the compromise of both parties. By contrast, Presi-
dent Xi is fully aware that China is now at a critical moment, and he
outlined China’s stance when addressing the CPC cadres in early Septem-
ber 2019 that “For those risks or challenges that jeopardize the leadership of
the Communist Party and China’s socialist system; for those that endanger
China’s sovereignty, security and development interests; for those that
undermine China’s core interests and major principles; and for those that
deter China’s realization of a great national rejuvenation, we will wage a
determined struggle against them as long as they are there. And we must
win the struggle.”54

52 Gideon Rose, “The Fourth Founding: The United States and the Liberal Order,” p. 20.
53 Mike Calia, “Trump trade advisor Peter Navarro: `Zero-sum game’ between China
and the rest of the world,” CNBC, July 19, 2018, https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/19/peter-
navarro-zero-sum-game-between-china-and-the-rest-of-the-world.html.
54 FrederickKempe, “The US-China trade war has set in motion an unstoppable global
economic transformation,” CNBC, September 14, 2019, https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/14/
us-china-trade-wars-unstoppable-global-economic-transformation.html.
 26 China Quarterly of International Strategic Studies Vol. 5, No. 3

If U.S.-China contention continues to rise, humanity faces a period of

uncertainty in which almost nobody will play by the rules and everyone
will strive to maintain a strategic advantage over other actors in interna-
tional relations. There is no doubt that the behavior of the two greatest
economic powers will create huge impacts on the stability of the post-World
War II global order. Closing domestic markets of countries that have ad-
by 182.177.194.173 on 03/26/20. Re-use and distribution is strictly not permitted, except for Open Access articles.

vocated economic liberalization will inevitably lead to a reduced cash in-

flow. The consequences can be felt by all stakeholders of the global market;
and the developing nations have already found themselves in a risky sit-
uation among diverse interests as they try to keep their markets functional
China Q of Int' l Strategic Stud Downloaded from www.worldscientific.com

in a more volatile world order. Global security will be particularly threat-

ened, given that the cooperation of major powers is indispensable for the
security of each country.
To overcome the obstacles, it will be necessary to reemphasize the
world order based on full-hearted cooperation of countries whose main
drivers are shared benefits. The prerequisite for this is that the United States
ceases to think individually, because that is the only way to reclaim the
epitome of a benevolent global leader. In order to succeed in this regard, the
Trump administration needs to be guided by examples from history. Even
at its peak of power in 1945, the U.S. leaders realized that it was not good
for their country to be in isolation. Therefore, they decided to use the U.S.
power to transform international politics and design a world with institu-
tions tailored to U.S. standards that have a stronghold in global military
supremacy. As Ralph Waldo Emerson wrote, “the only way to have a friend
is to be one.”55 President Theodore Roosevelt also believed that “[w]e have
learned that we cannot live alone at peace; that our own well-being is
dependent on the well-being of other nations far away. . . We have learned
to be citizens of the world, members of the human community.” Such
words could not have been better accepted by people of other countries
who, in the following decades, embraced American leadership and sup-
ported Washington in protecting Western values.
However, as geo-economics gives way to geopolitics, it will be very
difficult to overcome existing U.S.-China rifts without one party deviating,
which is unlikely given the global trends and the need for both leaders to

55 Quoted from Gideon Rose, “The Fourth Founding: The United States and the Liberal
Order,” p. 21.
 U.S.-China Relations Under the Trump Administration 27

cater to public opinion and show strength in domestic politics. According to

Henry Kissinger, former U.S. Secretary of State and the one credited for
rapprochement between the United States and China, there is always a
solution because peace and well-being of the world will depend on the
success of U.S.-China relations, but it will depend primarily on the goodwill
and success of Washington and Beijing to find common goals that can bring
by 182.177.194.173 on 03/26/20. Re-use and distribution is strictly not permitted, except for Open Access articles.

them together to resolve disagreements and set boundaries for conflict. The
U.S. leadership should keep in mind at all times that China is an important
partner and therefore, it is not a solution to seek allies around the world to
jointly oppose Chinese influence. More importantly, both Washington and
China Q of Int' l Strategic Stud Downloaded from www.worldscientific.com

Beijing need to be aware that a conflict of any kind between two high-tech
countries will never make the world the same again.